Jeff Hoffman Should Get First Crack at Minnesota Twins’ 2027 Closer Job

The Twins decided to be aggressive at the trade deadline, and while they ultimately fell short of their postseason goal, they were still able to add a few controllable arms in the process. One of those arms was Jeff Hoffman's.

Hoffman was the most expensive reliever Minnesota acquired, but he also looked pretty darn good during his brief stint with the Twins. Across 18 innings, he posted a 2.50 ERA and 2.43 FIP, allowing just nine hits while striking out 27 batters. He also walked 12, and command has been an area he’s struggled with in the past. Still, there are very few pitchers in baseball with better pure stuff than Hoffman, and while he can be streaky, he should get the first crack at the primary closer role for Minnesota in 2027.

His underlying numbers make a pretty compelling case for that role. His strikeout, whiff and chase rates all finished in the 98th percentile or better among MLB pitchers. That's the type of profile you'd expect from a premier closer, and his pitch mix gives him multiple ways to get hitters out. His slider is particularly nasty, generating whiffs on more than 50% of swings last season. That’s elite for any pitch, let alone one that’s making up just under half of his usage. Pretty nuts.

The four-seam fastball is another legitimate weapon, featuring an incredible movement profile with more than 16 inches of rise and nearly 14 inches of tail. It also finished with a Stuff+ grade of 115, which was better than Joe Ryan's four-seam fastball–which has been widely regarded as one of the better four-seamers in the league. He also has a splitter with a strong movement profile, giving him a legitimate three-pitch mix that can keep hitters off balance. When Hoffman is locating all three pitches, there's a lot to like about his arsenal. That hasn’t always come easy for him, however.

Command has been a concern throughout Hoffman's 11-year MLB career, and his time with the Twins was no exception. His walk rate jumped to 15.6% in Minnesota, which is far too high for any pitcher expected to handle consistent high-leverage opportunities. For context, Hoffman's career walk rate sits right around 10%. That's a much more manageable number, especially when paired with the strikeout ability he's displayed throughout his career. If he can maintain a strikeout rate north of 30%, a walk rate around 10% is something the Twins can live with. Approaching a 16% walk rate, though, is a different story.

Hoffman isn't the only member of Minnesota's bullpen who struggled to consistently find the strike zone this season, though. Yoendrys Gómez finished the year with a walk rate north of 13%, which was higher than Hoffman's season-long mark of 10.3%. Andrew Morris was better in that department, posting an 8.4% walk rate, but he didn't have the same overall success as Hoffman. That doesn't mean the Twins should ignore the command concerns. If anything, they highlight why Minnesota needs to improve their bullpen depth this offseason. But Hoffman has the type of stuff that can make those occasional walks easier to overcome, provided he can get back closer to his career norms.

It's also possible the Twins learn from their mistakes this past offseason and increase their payroll by adding more established late-inning arms. There should be several quality options available, and assuming a salary floor is implemented, the bullpen would be an easy place for Minnesota to spend money while addressing one of its biggest roster needs.

I certainly expect the Twins to add relief options this winter, and hopefully, one or two of those additions will be capable of challenging for the ninth-inning role. Minnesota is (potentially) a playoff team with a better bullpen this year, and relying on the same group of arms without adding meaningful competition would be a questionable approach. However, there are already financial considerations that make Hoffman an appealing option. The Twins owe him north of $7 million of his $11 million contract next season, which is already lower-end closer. Maybe Minnesota surprises everyone and spends lucratively on one or two additional bullpen arms. There are certainly situations where that investment would make sense, particularly if the Twins want to turn their late-inning group into a genuine strength. But based on what we've seen from this front office and ownership, I'm not expecting them to make that kind of commitment. More likely, the Twins will look for a few affordable additions who can provide depth and compete for high-leverage opportunities.

That approach would leave Hoffman in a pretty good position heading into 2027. Barring the emergence of a young arm or the addition of a true, premier closer, I doubt Minnesota will have one pitcher who receives every save opportunity. Having multiple options for the ninth inning would be a good thing, especially given Hoffman's occasional command issues.

Still, there's a difference between having a primary closer and giving someone every save opportunity. Hoffman has the track record, underlying numbers and raw stuff to earn the first crack at the job, even if the Twins want to keep other options available.

His brief stint in Minnesota showed what he can bring to the bullpen when he's at his best. If he can get his walk rate back under control, there's plenty of reason to believe he can be a reliable late-inning option. The Twins have plenty of work to do before their bullpen is where it needs to be, but Hoffman is a good starting point. Minnesota should continue adding arms this offseason, yet unless one of those additions clearly separates himself from the pack, Hoffman should enter spring training as the favorite to close games in 2027.

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