Jeff Hoffman Should Get First Crack at Minnesota Twins’ 2027 Closer Job

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

The Twins decided to be aggressive at the trade deadline, and while they ultimately fell short of their postseason goal, they were still able to add a few controllable arms in the process. One of those arms was Jeff Hoffman's.

Hoffman was the most expensive reliever Minnesota acquired, but he also looked pretty darn good during his brief stint with the Twins. Across 18 innings, he posted a 2.50 ERA and 2.43 FIP, allowing just nine hits while striking out 27 batters. He also walked 12, and command has been an area he’s struggled with in the past. Still, there are very few pitchers in baseball with better pure stuff than Hoffman, and while he can be streaky, he should get the first crack at the primary closer role for Minnesota in 2027.

His underlying numbers make a pretty compelling case for that role. His strikeout, whiff and chase rates all finished in the 98th percentile or better among MLB pitchers. That's the type of profile you'd expect from a premier closer, and his pitch mix gives him multiple ways to get hitters out. His slider is particularly nasty, generating whiffs on more than 50% of swings last season. That’s elite for any pitch, let alone one that’s making up just under half of his usage. Pretty nuts.

The four-seam fastball is another legitimate weapon, featuring an incredible movement profile with more than 16 inches of rise and nearly 14 inches of tail. It also finished with a Stuff+ grade of 115, which was better than Joe Ryan's four-seam fastball–which has been widely regarded as one of the better four-seamers in the league. He also has a splitter with a strong movement profile, giving him a legitimate three-pitch mix that can keep hitters off balance. When Hoffman is locating all three pitches, there's a lot to like about his arsenal. That hasn’t always come easy for him, however.

Command has been a concern throughout Hoffman's 11-year MLB career, and his time with the Twins was no exception. His walk rate jumped to 15.6% in Minnesota, which is far too high for any pitcher expected to handle consistent high-leverage opportunities. For context, Hoffman's career walk rate sits right around 10%. That's a much more manageable number, especially when paired with the strikeout ability he's displayed throughout his career. If he can maintain a strikeout rate north of 30%, a walk rate around 10% is something the Twins can live with. Approaching a 16% walk rate, though, is a different story.

Hoffman isn't the only member of Minnesota's bullpen who struggled to consistently find the strike zone this season, though. Yoendrys Gómez finished the year with a walk rate north of 13%, which was higher than Hoffman's season-long mark of 10.3%. Andrew Morris was better in that department, posting an 8.4% walk rate, but he didn't have the same overall success as Hoffman. That doesn't mean the Twins should ignore the command concerns. If anything, they highlight why Minnesota needs to improve their bullpen depth this offseason. But Hoffman has the type of stuff that can make those occasional walks easier to overcome, provided he can get back closer to his career norms.

It's also possible the Twins learn from their mistakes this past offseason and increase their payroll by adding more established late-inning arms. There should be several quality options available, and assuming a salary floor is implemented, the bullpen would be an easy place for Minnesota to spend money while addressing one of its biggest roster needs.

I certainly expect the Twins to add relief options this winter, and hopefully, one or two of those additions will be capable of challenging for the ninth-inning role. Minnesota is (potentially) a playoff team with a better bullpen this year, and relying on the same group of arms without adding meaningful competition would be a questionable approach. However, there are already financial considerations that make Hoffman an appealing option. The Twins owe him north of $7 million of his $11 million contract next season, which is already lower-end closer. Maybe Minnesota surprises everyone and spends lucratively on one or two additional bullpen arms. There are certainly situations where that investment would make sense, particularly if the Twins want to turn their late-inning group into a genuine strength. But based on what we've seen from this front office and ownership, I'm not expecting them to make that kind of commitment. More likely, the Twins will look for a few affordable additions who can provide depth and compete for high-leverage opportunities.

That approach would leave Hoffman in a pretty good position heading into 2027. Barring the emergence of a young arm or the addition of a true, premier closer, I doubt Minnesota will have one pitcher who receives every save opportunity. Having multiple options for the ninth inning would be a good thing, especially given Hoffman's occasional command issues.

Still, there's a difference between having a primary closer and giving someone every save opportunity. Hoffman has the track record, underlying numbers and raw stuff to earn the first crack at the job, even if the Twins want to keep other options available.

His brief stint in Minnesota showed what he can bring to the bullpen when he's at his best. If he can get his walk rate back under control, there's plenty of reason to believe he can be a reliable late-inning option. The Twins have plenty of work to do before their bullpen is where it needs to be, but Hoffman is a good starting point. Minnesota should continue adding arms this offseason, yet unless one of those additions clearly separates himself from the pack, Hoffman should enter spring training as the favorite to close games in 2027.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Didn't he ask Toronto to not be the closer? 

And I hope the Twins certainly add at least one reliever who can be a closer this offseason.

But, I am glad we have him.

[MeleMouth]

Sure, makes sense of the relievers coming back next year. A 2026 starter may also be a candidate. BTW, Gomez's walk rate in the second half was 17.4%. Ouchie!

[Parfigliano]

He's already on the team why not.

[Vanimal46]

Tell me you didn’t pay attention to Jeff Hoffman’s time in Toronto without telling me you didn’t pay attention to Jeff Hoffman’s time in Toronto and Philadelphia. 

[HerbieFan]

Clearly....

[S Bart]

... since I live in from San Diego ... I can attest that he has a good last name for a closer...

[thelanges5]

Twins were 22nd in walks per 9. Too many guys with shaky command. 

[strumdatjag]

It’s smart to move on from the idea of a 9th inning closer.   Have 3 or 4 high leverage arms to use in the last three innings.    Be flexible in deciding when to use them based on the type of hitters to be faced.  Sometimes it’s smart to use the best reliever against the  3-5 batters in the 8th rather than wait for that top pitcher to face the bottom of the order in the 9th, for example. 
and maybe wait to see how those top pitchers perform (and their health status) in Spring Training before designating one as the top reliever in the team. 
Flexibility!  

[CRF]

Sure...sounds ok right now. 

[TopGunn#22]

The last team that I remember that had that "flexible" approach was the "Nasty Boys" bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds.  Either way works.  If you have a Mason Miller or Bryan Baker, you've got "that guy."  

But I was impressed with Hoffman in the brief time we had him.  His stuff was electric.  It also made me think, how did we ever cut this guy out of spring training with an arm and stuff like that??  But you can just add it to the long list of blunders the front offices of the Pohlad owned Twins.  

I would like to see us go out and sign a big time Closer, someone like Ryan Helsley, lately of the Orioles.  If we do that, it pushes Hoffman to 8th inning and Gomez/Morris to 7th inning.  Would the Twins pay Helsley $12 million and Hoffman $7 million??  This has NOT been the Twins way.  The Twins decided they couldn't pay Duran, Jax and Varland, so why would they change now? 

It will be interesting to see if our FO actually has a plan this winter or will they continue to dumpster dive when all the best players have been signed.  

[DJL44]

I like having the highly paid veteran soak up the saves. It makes arbitration cheaper for the younger pitchers. If Hoffman is successful he could be flipped at the deadline. 

[Dawgzilla]

What is the fascination of mediocrity with the Twins.  Hoffman is a decent middle reliever at best!  Is this all there is to talk about to pump up remaining staunch Twins followers!  Sad state of affairs.  I won't be dropping any coins in the Twins owners coffers ever again, at least in person!  I'm 64 and done!  There are better things and value to spend my retirement income on!  I was a huge follower (outstate) when you younger, not so.much now!

[killercarewoliva]

9 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

It’s smart to move on from the idea of a 9th inning closer.   Have 3 or 4 high leverage arms to use in the last three innings.    Be flexible in deciding when to use them based on the type of hitters to be faced.  Sometimes it’s smart to use the best reliever against the  3-5 batters in the 8th rather than wait for that top pitcher to face the bottom of the order in the 9th, for example. 
and maybe wait to see how those top pitchers perform (and their health status) in Spring Training before designating one as the top reliever in the team. 
Flexibility!  

I had thought this was the direction some teams were going to take and I think the twins out of necessity wasn't it. 11 different guys that got a save last year? this is definitely the way to do it. you have a guy who might have pitched 3 days in a row. needs a day off and you need somebody who can do it just as well as the front guy. so yeah let's have three front guys. if the 8th inning is when when the best three hitters are coming up for the opposition, then put your best guy in the 8th. inning and hope the 9th inning works out. I love this approach.

[killercarewoliva]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The last team that I remember that had that "flexible" approach was the "Nasty Boys" bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds.  Either way works.  If you have a Mason Miller or Bryan Baker, you've got "that guy."  

But I was impressed with Hoffman in the brief time we had him.  His stuff was electric.  It also made me think, how did we ever cut this guy out of spring training with an arm and stuff like that??  But you can just add it to the long list of blunders the front offices of the Pohlad owned Twins.  

I would like to see us go out and sign a big time Closer, someone like Ryan Helsley, lately of the Orioles.  If we do that, it pushes Hoffman to 8th inning and Gomez/Morris to 7th inning.  Would the Twins pay Helsley $12 million and Hoffman $7 million??  This has NOT been the Twins way.  The Twins decided they couldn't pay Duran, Jax and Varland, so why would they change now? 

It will be interesting to see if our FO actually has a plan this winter or will they continue to dumpster dive when all the best players have been signed.  

hopefully not again.

[killercarewoliva]

27 minutes ago, Dawgzilla said:

What is the fascination of mediocrity with the Twins.  Hoffman is a decent middle reliever at best!  Is this all there is to talk about to pump up remaining staunch Twins followers!  Sad state of affairs.  I won't be dropping any coins in the Twins owners coffers ever again, at least in person!  I'm 64 and done!  There are better things and value to spend my retirement income on!  I was a huge follower (outstate) when you younger, not so.much now!

when Hoffman first took the mound for Minnesota, he didn't look very good as I can recall it. maybe it took him. two or three outings start showing what he's supposed to be. I am a bit uneasy when Gomez takes the mound also. but then Hoffman started pitching very well with those walks mixed in. he was able to keep runs off the board pretty much.

[Danchat]

14 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Tell me you didn’t pay attention to Jeff Hoffman’s time in Toronto without telling me you didn’t pay attention to Jeff Hoffman’s time in Toronto and Philadelphia. 

What was the sample size on Hoffman attempting to be a closer there? I wouldn't blame the Twins for giving him a crack at it given he was our best reliever down the stretch.

[LambchoP]

I really hope they sign at least one legit late inning arm to compete with Hoffman for saves. Minter did well for us, and we need a good lefty. Funderburk has horrible command. Good stuff but too inconsistent. If we signed Minter and another righty, maybe go for Abreu, that would make a strong pen...

Hoffman 

Minter Abreau 

Gomez Morris

Festa Zebby

Funderburk Adams Raya etc...

 

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, Dawgzilla said:

What is the fascination of mediocrity with the Twins.  Hoffman is a decent middle reliever at best!  Is this all there is to talk about to pump up remaining staunch Twins followers!  Sad state of affairs.  I won't be dropping any coins in the Twins owners coffers ever again, at least in person!  I'm 64 and done!  There are better things and value to spend my retirement income on!  I was a huge follower (outstate) when you younger, not so.much now!

This is a valid grievance, but doesn't respond to the topic posed by the article, which states that Jeff Hoffman is the best option the Twins currently have to be the closer. Criticizing Hoffman does not mean that other options are better.

Although the Twins and Twins media often do overhype mediocrity, the team still needs to come up with players to fill each position, and saying that Player 'X' is the best fit for a position is not the same as pumping up mediocrity.

Another reason to try Hoffman at closer is that if he does well, he and his expiring contract could be traded mid-season for a decent prospect.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Dawgzilla said:

What is the fascination of mediocrity with the Twins.  Hoffman is a decent middle reliever at best!  Is this all there is to talk about to pump up remaining staunch Twins followers!  Sad state of affairs.  I won't be dropping any coins in the Twins owners coffers ever again, at least in person!  I'm 64 and done!  There are better things and value to spend my retirement income on!  I was a huge follower (outstate) when you younger, not so.much now!

To each his own.

[Whammy]

3 hours ago, Dawgzilla said:

What is the fascination of mediocrity with the Twins.  Hoffman is a decent middle reliever at best!  Is this all there is to talk about to pump up remaining staunch Twins followers!  Sad state of affairs.  

I almost never down-thumb posts, but this one is incredibly worthy of a downthumb.

[farmerguychris]

I like him better as a set up man for the new stud closer we're going to sign this off season......fingers crossed.

[Whammy]

Hoffman had a 173 ERA+ with the Twins and struck out 13.5 per 9 innings.

Over his last 4 years his ERA+ is around 145 and has struck out 344 batters in 252 innings, good for 12.3 K/9, with a 3.17 ERA

I'm sorry, but if you view that as "middle relief at best" then you just don't know ball.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Absolutely not. 

Do you even want to win? What is so many people in heres obsession with mediocrity? 

Our bullpen has a floor. We need a higher ceiling at many positions if we want a chance to contend. Closer is one of those positions. 

Im so tired of reading so and so already on the team should have a chance for blank position. No they shouldn't. If the position is open, thats because we dont have the guy in our system right now to fill the role. Closer, Ace, Catcher, and 1B to name a few. We need to raise the ceiling on these positions and get a heck of a lot more out of them. 

[weitz41]

It's October 2026. Hoffman as the closer sound pretty good now. By June 2027 (if they're playing games) who knows. Bring back Minter and maybe get another top notch set up guy (Abreau?) and you can look at it as matchup based. Hoffman, Gomez, Morris, Minter and Abreau

[Peter]

Gomez is our closer!!!