One Final Free Agent Outfielder for the Twins to Consider?

[Ted Schwerzler]

While focusing in on Carlos Correa in free agency, the Twins have had multiple conversations, made offers, and ultimately looked to pick their spots. That has led to just a few deals, but there is still one player available that could be of benefit to them.

 

Image courtesy of Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

It shouldn’t be crazy to think that the prize of the Minnesota free agent spending spree will be Carlos Correa. Regardless of how he wound up back with the Twins, they stand to benefit massively from his return on a six-year deal. He joins both Joey Gallo and Christian Vazquez as talents paid for during this cycle.

Two areas have still gone unaddressed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. A need for a pitcher with at least Sonny Gray stuff, and a right-handed bat to help balance the outfield. We have heard plenty regarding trades involving either Luis Arraez or Max Kepler, but at this point, any return would be unknown.

Looking at the free agent market, there is still a formidable asset available in the form of Jurickson Profar.

A former top prospect, Profar has settled into a utility role that has him largely focused on the outfield. Last season with the San Diego Padres saw him produce a 111 OPS+ and 2.5 fWAR. After making $8 million in 2022, we should have some idea as to where a new deal could come in.

He would ultimately be replacing Kyle Garlick as the right-handed platoon option for the Twins, and the threshold of value would need to be something similar to that of Kepler’s. With Adam Duvall, Wil Myers, A.J. Pollock, and Tommy Pham all getting deals just slightly below what Kepler is set to make in 2023, it could also be argued that Profar wouldn’t be worth a massive payday.

In theory, Profar could produce 3.0 to 4.0 fWAR over a full season. Admittedly, that would be a high-water mark for him, and his playing time probably won’t be what it was in San Diego.

We do know that the Twins offered Andrew McCutchen the same deal that he took from the Pittsburgh Pirates, and they at least had some dialogue with Pollock. Getting more than just a right-handed masher has value as well, and Profar actually has better splits when facing righties anyways.

With plenty of money to spend on upgrading the roster, you can bet leaders like Correa and Byron Buxton are still pushing for the front office to add. Profar would represent an addition with upside and help to even the outfield. If they opt to go a different route, they likely need to trade from their major-league surplus, and pushing the needle on either Arraez or Kepler could have challenges in and of themselves.

At this point, things should start to get interesting for the Twins' front office. Falvey told the media that he expected the trade market to pick up after the New Year. They hooked the big fish in Correa over two weeks ago. With less than a month until Spring Training, finding a way to finalize deals should be the focus.

If there is something we should have learned by now, it’s that this front office is never done seeking ways to improve. As long as the offseason is still going, and even into the action down in Fort Myers, they will continue exploring all avenues. If the Twins are looking for an impact right-handed outfielder in free agency, Jurickson Profar is probably the final option. If not him, then they will need to make a trade and lose talent to gain talent. 

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[Karbo]

I'm all in on a short term deal for Profar. An upgrade over Garlic for sure!

[jorgenswest]

Isn’t he a switch hitter that hits better against right handed pitching over his career? It seems like we have outfielders that hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching.

[umterp23]

I'd take a swing with Profar to give us a switch hitting LF.  With Arraez gone in the 3 for 1 trade which I like, the trade does free us up for player balance and ab's across the IF.  I would package Kepler, Celestino and any other high end AAA prospect to get one more Pitching arm.

OF: Profar, Buxton, Gallo and Gordon

IF: Farmer, Correa, Polanco, Miranda

C: Vasquez, Jeffers

3 bench players: Larnach, Kiriloff and a spring training surprise to fill out the roster.  Granted this has us banking on Kiriloff being healthy along with Larnach finding his stroke.  Kepler if he is traded, will need to bring back a pitching arm but not sure he gets moved at this point.  

I can hear the TD fan base screaming where is the power with Profar and OF.  Power game is overrated, not all guys on roster need to blast 20 HR's to be considered worthy of a roster spot.  Fundamental baseball is backbone to a good team along with quality/consistent pitching.  

2022 playoff teams: Tampa Bay 139 HR's (25th ranked) and Guardians 127 (29th ranked) and Padres 151 (21st ranked). On the flip side those three teams with pitching, focused on ERA: Tampa Bay 3.41 (4th Ranked), Guardians 3.47 (6th ranked) and Padres 3.81 (11th ranked).

Pitching & Defense.  HR's are sexy and create ooh-aah moments but not mandatory to win.  Granted Houston had it all last year ranked 4th in HR's and 2nd in ERA.  

Go Twins

[Major League Ready]

His career OPS against LHP is 685 and wRC+ is 88.  I would rather have Garlick on the bench with all the other LH hitting OFers.  Garlick's OPS against LH pitching is 839 and a wRC+ of 126.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Isn’t he a switch hitter that hits better against right handed pitching over his career? It seems like we have outfielders that hit right handed pitching better than left handed pitching.

Correct, and neither against righties or lefties is he above 100 wRC+. 96 against righties, 88 against lefties. So he has reverse splits of what you want and neither are particularly good.

Garlick, on the other hand… 126 wRC+ against Lefties…. 63 against Righties.

8M+ for Profar interests me as much as Gallo… that is to say I hate the Gallo signing, and would hate Profar signing as well.

[HoskenPowell]

I'm far more concerned about the bullpen arms than worried about the OF options.....Get Chafins agent on the line , and Matt Moore or Brand Hands as well.....

[Doctor Gast]

I'd prefer sticking with Garlick strictly against LHPs, until Kepler reestablish himself with the shift ban (not before) and or trade Gallo as soon he's available to do so. With the OF less crowded then we can consider any RH OF option.

[Fatbat]

There was talk about Profar wanting a long term deal last year and I would think that he is still trying to find one. I’m surprised Boston hasn’t signed him yet.  Last year would have been the time to throw some money at him like a 3 yr deal with a 4th and 5th team option. At this point, its just going to create a log jamb in the outfield. We have the on field leadership in place right now to mentor the kids. We need to push Martin to MLB along with Julien in 2023. TL, AK and Mr. ACL tear need to stay healthy and find their way to a 4fWAR.  That log jamb will solve all the lineup issues. 

[RJA]

I don't see him bringing any significant value to the Twins.  Either get a right handed hitting outfielder who can be a difference maker, or keep what we have.  Also, you might want to update article given Arraez trade.

[August J Gloop]

On the right contract he'd be a good add. But I think the Jo Adell idea floated elsewhere is the better play. Has a chance to blow the doors off on value, but won't be an expensive misfire if he flounders. 

Profar is a great example though of misunderstanding the OPS+ and WRC+ 100 scale. 100 Doesn't mean 'acceptable'. It means exactly league average. League average for MLB is top 10% (at least) of all baseball players on the planet. So a player who can OPS+ at 90 is 10% less than league average. It doesn't mean 'bad'. Profar is a slightly below average hitter, with lots of positional flexibility. I do question his rostering when he cant play center, though. I'm more into that potential match with KC on Michael A Taylor. 

[Blyleven2011]

Let the kids play and if needed make a trade at the deadline  ...

I keep hearing we have talented prospects and former prospects , time to look through the window and see what we have in talent , quit the 40 man turmoil ...

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd prefer sticking with Garlick strictly against LHPs, until Kepler reestablish himself with the shift ban

Can you really RE-establish you only have one really decent season?

Kepler hasn't ever really established himself as a decent bat, and the shift restrictions with likely give him half a dozen more singles, maybe a dozen more at most. Kepler's problem is popping out and grounding out to second. Shift restrictions aren't going to make much of a difference for him.

[nicksaviking]

If he’s a utility guy, sure. But with or without Kepler, I’m not signing him with the idea that he’s getting handed a starting OF job.

[Mike Sixel]

No way I want him as a starter in Minnesota. I don't want him over most of the options as a bench bat either. What does he do so well you'd want him here? 

[roger]

I really don't understand your article, Ted, especially the following?

"Two areas have still gone unaddressed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. A need for a pitcher with at least Sonny Gray stuff, and a right-handed bat to help balance the outfield. We have heard plenty regarding trades involving either Luis Arraez or Max Kepler, but at this point, any return would be unknown."

Was this written before the Arraez trade and posted today?  Re-read the entire piece looking for something that would explain this and couldn't find it.

The Twins currently have 16 position players on their 40-man.  Thirteen will make the opening day roster.  Lewis will go on the 60-day IL and Wallner and Julien will likely be in St. Paul.  That leaves 13, including Celestino,  which are the 13 who likely will break camp with the team.  

Pitchers and catchers report in what, three plus weeks?  I doubt there is going to be any more changes than maybe some minor tinkering.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

Can you really RE-establish you only have one really decent season?

Kepler hasn't ever really established himself as a decent bat, and the shift restrictions with likely give him half a dozen more singles, maybe a dozen more at most. Kepler's problem is popping out and grounding out to second. Shift restrictions aren't going to make much of a difference for him.

I guess it depends what your definition of "decent" is. To me, Kepler is the very definition of a "decent" bat, as he's only had 1 year truly above average, but the rest of the time is right about league average. 

While I think the effect of the shift ban is seriously overstated by some fans, if he had 12 more singles last year his BA would've jumped 30 points. Now that wasn't a full season of ABs, so the stats are a little skewed. But he did play a full season back in 2018, and 12 extra singles there would've raised his batting average from .224 to .246. Even 6 more singles would've raised his BA to .235 that year.

It's part of why batting average isn't looked at as being so important anymore. Another example: if Luis Arraez had 3 fewer hits last year he would've beaten Judge for the batting title by .0002. 4 fewer hits and he'd have lost by .002 points. It's why teams tend to care more about overall batting performance, and not just BA.

[DocBauer]

It's not that Profar is a bad player or doesn't offer intrigue as a role player, but there is no discernable fit here. We already have Farmer, and Gordon as role players. Profar has a career OPS of .708 and hits better LH.

I'd much rather have young Larnach, with more potential, in the lineup daily than Profar. I just don't sit a fit.

[tony&rodney]

Profar would have been a good player to sign if the Twins had traded two of Larnach, Kepler, and Gordon (not a suggestion). The current roster does not improve with a Profar addition because he hits better LH and Garlick remains effective against lefties. I thought someone would sign Profar for 3/$27M. He doesn't fit right now as a Twin.

[HrbieFan]

21 hours ago, umterp23 said:

I'd take a swing with Profar to give us a switch hitting LF.  With Arraez gone in the 3 for 1 trade which I like, the trade does free us up for player balance and ab's across the IF.  I would package Kepler, Celestino and any other high end AAA prospect to get one more Pitching arm.

OF: Profar, Buxton, Gallo and Gordon

IF: Farmer, Correa, Polanco, Miranda

C: Vasquez, Jeffers

3 bench players: Larnach, Kiriloff and a spring training surprise to fill out the roster.  Granted this has us banking on Kiriloff being healthy along with Larnach finding his stroke.  Kepler if he is traded, will need to bring back a pitching arm but not sure he gets moved at this point.  

I can hear the TD fan base screaming where is the power with Profar and OF.  Power game is overrated, not all guys on roster need to blast 20 HR's to be considered worthy of a roster spot.  Fundamental baseball is backbone to a good team along with quality/consistent pitching.  

2022 playoff teams: Tampa Bay 139 HR's (25th ranked) and Guardians 127 (29th ranked) and Padres 151 (21st ranked). On the flip side those three teams with pitching, focused on ERA: Tampa Bay 3.41 (4th Ranked), Guardians 3.47 (6th ranked) and Padres 3.81 (11th ranked).

Pitching & Defense.  HR's are sexy and create ooh-aah moments but not mandatory to win.  Granted Houston had it all last year ranked 4th in HR's and 2nd in ERA.  

Go Twins

Don't tell that to the analytics crowd, they love their HRs, launch angles and fWar 

[miracleb]

A platoon of Garlick and Kepler would be a drastic improvement over Profar.  Insert Gallo for Kepler....same!

[GeorgiaBaller]

I'm not sure you gain anything with Profar.  He isn't a step up from Kepler (a Kepler trade should be a step up) and isn't any more of a splits threat at the plate than Gordon. 

I have to believe that Gordon has put the work in this offseason to markedly enhance his OF skills---the pedigree of his family will push that expectation, His brother is a great positional mentor.  Gordon was ascending at the plate still at the end of the season----before the entire team took a nosedive the last month.

I would rather have Guriel on a short term than Profar.  Ther's  reason Padres would let him move on---as did Texas. Only Guriel back to his pre-last -year form raises the water level for the team.