Mea Culpa

[Twins GFP]

Many proclamations of doom have been made over the last few weeks regarding the moves the Twins have made (or lack thereof).  What to expect out of players or teams.  Personally, hearing the same drum beat over and over is getting a little tiresome.  Let's change things up a bit.

I am calling out all prognosticators:  what have you been wrong about?  What move did you rail and rail on that ended up going the other way?  Did somebody you wholeheartedly praise totally fall apart?  Everybody here is willing to shout their opinions from the mountaintop.  Are you just as willing to admit you were wrong?  Here is your chance to confess your sins and fess up...

Me:  I was convinced the Berrios trade would come back to kill us.  So far, not so much.  Same with the Garver trade.

As always, be respectful

[wsnydes]

Bold of you to assume that I've been wrong! ?

First thing that comes to mind is Sano's ability to reign in the strikeouts.  His eye at the plate was pretty good, but he'd miss so many balls in the zone that it just didn't make any sense not to come around.

 

[chpettit19]

I'll join in with wsnydes and admit I thought Sano would settle in more the last couple years. 

Of recent moves I'll admit I had high hopes for, and liked, the Mahle and Paddock trades. I thought they'd pay dividends in 2022, and was clearly wrong. Although, I hold out hope for vindication!

I was wrong on both sides of the Berrios deal. Expected Berrios to come back to bite us in 2022, and for Martin to lay claim to a utility role while providing a 2nd on base machine (to pair with Arraez) for the Twins in 2022. Wrong on both accounts.

I also expected much more out of Aaron Sabato. I expected to see a bounce back after his initial terrible showing in pro ball.

Expected more of an impact from Larnach at this point. But I blame that on the Twins for trying to turn him into more of a pull hitter, and not just letting him stay up the middle more.

I'm sure there's more, but my ego can only handle so much in 1 day. 

[stringer bell]

I'll blame injuries on most of the things I've missed. #1 and #1A--loved the trades to acquired Paddack and Mahle. #2--I've been super-bullish on Alex Kirilloff, but both 2021 and 2022 have been all but completely derailed by injury and it is far from a sure thing that he'll ever translate the potential into performance. #3--really like the acquisition of Jorge Lopez and to date, he has been underwhelming. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

hmm… let’s see.. I was really high on Alex Meyer. I thought he should have been called up sooner, and that he didn’t get the breaks other guys get. However, he was with two teams in MLB and could not stick; talent would have won out at some point. 

 

As for the current teams… I was also wrong about Caleb Thielbar. He was a guy in a group of guys (Thorpe, Smeltzer) who I thought were easy cuts from the 40 man. There was the Rule 5 we lost Baddoo and Wells. I don’t know if I would trust Thielbar in Yankees Stadium but he’s certainly capable of getting some big outs. Also wrong about Kirilloff in that I did not think he would be as potentially special as he is—he is a truly natural hitter and pretty solid at first base. I figured him to be a good hitter and defensive liability. I hope he can make a full recovery.

I also think Luis Arraez needs to be inked at second base and leadoff. Every day, set it and forget it. But other posters see it differently, that bouncing him around (my phrasing) works just fine. I don’t know how you prove which approach is right and which one isn’t. 

[danielp19653]

Was very low on Buxton after his first two years with his offense. Regardless of Injuries its been great seeing him hit the ball more consistently and develop far more power than I think anyone thought he would.

 

I thought the Berrios trade would hurt more than it has, I liked the trade since I didn't think we'd keep him long term anyways but expected him to be in the top 3 for a cy young after he left.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, danielp19653 said:

Was very low on Buxton after his first two years with his offense. Regardless of Injuries its been great seeing him hit the ball more consistently and develop far more power than I think anyone thought he would.

 

I thought the Berrios trade would hurt more than it has, I liked the trade since I didn't think we'd keep him long term anyways but expected him to be in the top 3 for a cy young after he left.

Welcome to TD! Buxton has certainly been a revelation once he found his groove. Just stay on the field, please! 

[Parfigliano]

Me too on Sano.  Expected Ks but not near the rate he put up.

[DJL44]

I didn't think Arraez was going to keep his batting average elite when he got to the big leagues. I thought being slow and lacking power would make it easier for big leaguers to get him out.

[Mike Sixel]

I was quite wrong about Sano and Martin (thought he'd be the LF at some point last year). 

I thought Ryan as a 4 / 5 type, so that's one I'm happy to be wrong on for sure.

Most of the rest of the stuff I was really wrong on (Twinswise) are due to injuries.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Many proclamations of doom have been made over the last few weeks regarding the moves the Twins have made (or lack thereof).  What to expect out of players or teams.  Personally, hearing the same drum beat over and over is getting a little tiresome.  Let's change things up a bit.

I am calling out all prognosticators:  what have you been wrong about?  What move did you rail and rail on that ended up going the other way?  Did somebody you wholeheartedly praise totally fall apart?  Everybody here is willing to shout their opinions from the mountaintop.  Are you just as willing to admit you were wrong?  Here is your chance to confess your sins and fess up...

Me:  I was convinced the Berrios trade would come back to kill us.  So far, not so much.  Same with the Garver trade.

As always, be respectful

It might still be out there if I dig, but I was really put off by the Francisco Liriano trade because while I felt Pedro Hernandez possibly may end up being a usable #5 starter at some point, I said that Eduardo Escobar was clearly the worst player on the 25-man roster and would be the first player DFA'd when they needed to make room.

[ashbury]

Me?  Joey Gallo. 

[Twins GFP]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Me?  Joey Gallo. 

[Heiny]

Looking back as far as I can remember,  I've been right on everything.  Side note, My wife says I have selective memory.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’ll echo the Sano whiff. I really thought he’d have enough Power and walks to overcome the Ks

i thought Berrios trade was a mistake

im sure there are many, many more that I’m missing

[Linus]

I liked the trades at the deadline last year.  I was also ready to dfa Griffin Jax after his poor first year as a starter. Other than that I’ve pretty much been right ?

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It might still be out there if I dig, but I was really put off by the Francisco Liriano trade because while I felt Pedro Hernandez possibly may end up being a usable #5 starter at some point, I said that Eduardo Escobar was clearly the worst player on the 25-man roster and would be the first player DFA'd when they needed to make room.

That's a good one that I'll own up to too.  As many here know, I enjoy baseball simulation games, and one surefire abuse is to always package multiple so-so players for one better player.  I felt at the time that Ryan had fallen for that old trick.

One that probably no one else will mention is Aaron Slegers who I thought would make a good showing in the majors.

Anthony Slama, anyone?  I wanted him to get an extended look in the majors.

But for a real meal culpa I'll go with never really catching on that the 2019 Bomba Squad had a chance to be a 100 win team, until they were at about 97 or so.  I think my pre-season prediction was, "ugh, .500 maybe" and I stuck to my guns because I'm stubborn like that.

I suppose a similar whiff is Nick Gordon being for real.  But I still consider the jury to be out, on him being more than a utility player, because I'm stubborn like that.

[Malachi]

I always dislike miguel sano

[Major League Ready]

The one that stands out for me is a trade we didn't make for Verlander.  Detroit was probably never going to trade him in the division but I thought he was starting the decline phase.  I love him as a pitcher I just thought the signs were there.  Boy was I monumentally wrong.

[Wyotwinsfan]

There isn’t room for all of them, but here are a few.

I thought Gary Sanchez would hit better after his change of scenery.

I am wrong every morning and night when I check MLB trade rumors and expect to read about a move the Twins made to better the team. 
 

I thought the Twins would extend Gio and have him long term. 
 

I thought Kepler would figure things out and get some opposite field hits.  
 

Baseball is a humbling sport, even for armchair general managers. 

[Nine of twelve]

I have never made a mistake in my life. There was one time when I thought I had, but it turned out I was mistaken.

[Riverbrian]

I've been wrong so often that I stopped making predictions. 

Instead of predicting that a bear will walk through the campground. I wait for a bear to walk through the campground and then I point at the bear. 

I fill out my NCAA basketball brackets to perfection every single year by waiting to see what happens first. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Me?  Joey Gallo. 

I hope I am wrong about Gallo. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've been wrong so often that I stopped making predictions. 

Instead of predicting that a bear will walk through the campground. I wait for a bear to walk through the campground and then I point at the bear. 

I fill out my NCAA basketball brackets to perfection every single year by waiting to see what happens first. 

Go Tarheels.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Aaron Sabato (because he was a Tarheel), Anthony Slama and Jake Reed,  and Simmons at SS...boy was I wrong about him.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Here’s a few . . .

1. I thought Dyson would be a game changer for the bullpen

2.  I thought the Twins would sign Correa for around $300 mil. 
 

3. My wife gave me a signed 2006 Twins baseball that had Morneau, Mauer Santana Liriano Nathan and Hunter. At the time I thought there would be at least 3 Hall of Famers and possibly as much as 5.  

[Longdistancetwins]

Hey, how about ancient history?  I never thought Roy Smalley would be a hitter, so I disliked the Blyleven trade more than I should have. 

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Aaron Sabato (because he was a Tarheel), Anthony Slama and Jake Reed,  and Simmons at SS...boy was I wrong about him.

I also thought Andrelton Simmons was a good fit. He was not.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

My wife gave me a signed 2006 Twins baseball that had Morneau, Mauer Santana Liriano Nathan and Hunter. At the time I thought there would be at least 3 Hall of Famers and possibly as much as 5.  

Only the Twins Hall of Fame. Still a pretty good ball to have.

[Nashvilletwin]

I write a lot of long posts (I know, I know, I apologise).  If I were to try to answer this question, I’d probably break the site. So let me be short for once: I’ve been wrong about almost everything (but I’m a great second guesser).