Do we need a new pitching strategy?

[mikelink45]

"The rotation was just 27th in innings pitched, and the bullpen wasn't dominant enough (15th in ERA) to pick up the slack."  - Jim Bowden, ESPN.

That sums things up quite well, just like Sonny Gray wanting to pitch further into the game.

You have to either have dominant starters that carry you to the seventh inning or you need a lot of arms in the BP that can cover more than three innings per game.  That puts a lot of pressure on the BP and if you have questionable arms are they really better than the SP facing the third time through the lineup?

Can Rocco adjust, is Maki the pitching coach we need?

[Blyleven2011]

Nothing has inspired me to  believing that our pitching philosophy  will improve  ,,, 

Wes Johnson left in the middle of a season  and I think that was pretty low if him to do so and not stay the season and then move on  , or maybe he was just frustrated at the pitching philosophy of the twins or didn't quite see eye to eye with the manager  ...

The twins have retained all their coaches for now  ,  they have to many yes men ,  that is what the FO likes  ...

It's waa a poorly run plan last season  and the season before was a disaster  ...

Not making any coaching changes will be their downfall  ,  by bringing in  new coaches it might spark fresh ideas ....

[Brock Beauchamp]

The key to this team winning in 2023 is the acquisition of a lot more pitchers and far fewer belly itchers.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't have anything against Pete Maki but I don't know enough about him to have anything for him either. I expected the team to do a more thorough search for a pitching coach, including interviewing anyone they had interest in. I hope they did due diligence after Johnson left before making Maki the permanent coach.

Regarding the philosophy of lifting the starter after two times through the opposing lineup, I don't care whether the starter throws 60 pitches or 120. But if the game is reasonably winnable, of the pitchers who are available the one most likely to get outs should be on the mound.

[Paul Walerius]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

"The rotation was just 27th in innings pitched, and the bullpen wasn't dominant enough (15th in ERA) to pick up the slack."  - Jim Bowden, ESPN.

That sums things up quite well, just like Sonny Gray wanting to pitch further into the game.

You have to either have dominant starters that carry you to the seventh inning or you need a lot of arms in the BP that can cover more than three innings per game.  That puts a lot of pressure on the BP and if you have questionable arms are they really better than the SP facing the third time through the lineup?

Can Rocco adjust, is Maki the pitching coach we need?

I was listening to a game on the radio late in the year.  I believe it was Dan said every time Twins pitchers got 2 strikes they go off speed.   Teams knew about this.   That is why we had so many 2 strike homeruns.

[RpR]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The key to this team winning in 2023 is the acquisition of a lot more pitchers and far fewer belly itchers.

LORDY, I have not heard that for over 55 years; brings back good memories.?

[Craig Arko]

Let the Wookie win.

[Linus]

Yes

[Linus]

Mostly we need better pitchers. And we want batters not a broken ladder. 

[Old fox]

if the Twins want a #1 pitcher they’ll have to make a trade, unless Verlander is signed. The remaining free agent pitchers are #2 pitchers carry long histories of injuries. The Marlins possibility of a couple of young starters and the the Twins have couple of trade candidates to fill the needs of the Marlins.  

[Mike Sixel]

This wasn't their philosophy before this year. Maybe with healthy and better starters, it won't be next year. I was disappointed they didn't piggy back more, given what they had.

Archer couldn't go more, did people want Bundy to? They tried to let Mahle do it.....

[Trov]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Nothing has inspired me to  believing that our pitching philosophy  will improve  ,,, 

Wes Johnson left in the middle of a season  and I think that was pretty low if him to do so and not stay the season and then move on  , or maybe he was just frustrated at the pitching philosophy of the twins or didn't quite see eye to eye with the manager  ...

The twins have retained all their coaches for now  ,  they have to many yes men ,  that is what the FO likes  ...

It's waa a poorly run plan last season  and the season before was a disaster  ...

Not making any coaching changes will be their downfall  ,  by bringing in  new coaches it might spark fresh ideas ....

How do you know the coaches are yes men?  Are you in their meetings listening to conversations?  Just because they are not vocally telling the media they are against what Rocco is doing, does not mean they are not putting ideas forward.  Rocco is the one that takes the questions from media, so we only hear from.  Maybe they are yes men, but what evidence do you have to conclude that? 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This wasn't their philosophy before this year. Maybe with healthy and better starters, it won't be next year. I was disappointed they didn't piggy back more, given what they had.

Archer couldn't go more, did people want Bundy to? They tried to let Mahle do it.....

This is my understanding as well. Yah, it was frustrating to see Ober, Winder, Varland, Gray, and whomever pulled early but it made some sense. The Twins did often let Joe Ryan stretch out and they could have let him go longer too. Archer was toast by the time he was pulled and Bundy was working with mirrors mostly, although I did admire how he kept battling. Mahle never looked right. So next season could be quite different.

[Trov]

I am not saying I agree with the way starters were used, however, we do not know how they would have done over the bullpen in their shorter starts.  It is not just the 3rd time through rotation, but they want to generally pull guys after inning over, and not mid innings.  

To just assume that putting the starter out there 1 more inning, to have 1 less from pen, would have worked out well is just not based on facts. It is pure speculation.  The post said out pen was 15th in ERA.  Did anyone look up what the overall ERA of our team was?  We were 19th overall.  

Tampa Bay, who averaged even less pitches per start had one of the best overall team ERA.  They have a very similar plan as we do.  It is really just comes down to needing better pitching overall.  

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This wasn't their philosophy before this year. Maybe with healthy and better starters, it won't be next year. I was disappointed they didn't piggy back more, given what they had.

Archer couldn't go more, did people want Bundy to? They tried to let Mahle do it.....

They tried to let Mahle do it?

His first two games were perfectly in alignment with the rest of the season. 86 pitches (both games) and 22 batters faced (both games) the second game he had a 3 hit shutout going. (These numbers were way down compared to what he was doing for the Reds)

Also the Twins philosophy has been the same for a few years now minus when they where showcasing Berrios for those few starts. Keep it under 100, face 22 batters (or less) and if you keep your pitch count down, hits and walks down, you can start the 5th or 6th inning, maybe the 7th, just don't let anybody get on base or face the opposite handed batter.

This response wasn't complaining about what they are doing it is to point out in fact what they are and have been doing. Will they change this next year, I highly, highly doubt it. Doesn't mean one of more of the starters couldn't average 6ish innings per start but for that to happen they would have to be amazing in most starts.

[Doctor Gast]

20 hours ago, Trov said:

Tampa Bay, who averaged even less pitches per start had one of the best overall team ERA.  They have a very similar plan as we do.  It is really just comes down to needing better pitching overall.  

1st I want to thank Mike for creating this thread. And the answer to your question is indubitably yes. 

TB had one of best rotations yet they pitched less innings than us that showed up in their ERA. What does that tell you? That they knew how to profile their pitchers & stuck to it, meaning they didn't over stretched their SPs. What also aided to their success was they had a far superior short relief in number.

Although this FO would like to emulate TB we don't have the rotation to equal TB. We had a out of condition Gray, recouperating Archer, weak arm Bundy and a bunch of rookies (which is wise to break in slowly), Yet we pitched more innings than TB, where if we wanted to emulate TB in profiling their SPs we'd have pitched much fewer innings than TB.

The kicker here is our poor short relief corp and the hugh chasm between SP to closer. TB can get by with the SP+ short RP+ short RP+ short RP+ short RP formula, but we can't  because of our poor short relief & you can only pitch Duran & Jax so often w/o negative results. Out of options they pitched declining Duffy & Pagan in high leverage situations too often (once is too often). As a result they quickly over stretched their rotation, raising havoc with injuries & ineffeciency.

Twins had a very good quality of pitchers profiled as long  relief/ spot starting. Ober, Smeltzer, Winder & Sands that could have very well filled that gap between SP & closer w/o over depending on our poor short relief & over stretching our SPs. Instead of taking advantage of one of our best piching assets, they ignored them and transferred them to the rotation & over stretched them in that role, devastating our pitching resources. This is the philosophy that needs to change.

[dxpavelka]

21 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Nothing has inspired me to  believing that our pitching philosophy  will improve  ,,, 

Wes Johnson left in the middle of a season  and I think that was pretty low if him to do so and not stay the season and then move on  , or maybe he was just frustrated at the pitching philosophy of the twins or didn't quite see eye to eye with the manager  ...

The twins have retained all their coaches for now  ,  they have to many yes men ,  that is what the FO likes  ...

It's waa a poorly run plan last season  and the season before was a disaster  ...

Not making any coaching changes will be their downfall  ,  by bringing in  new coaches it might spark fresh ideas ....

I understand your thoughts on Johnson leaving but teams fire managers and coaches mid season all the time and nobody bats an eye.

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think they need one strategy and I don’t think that is how they operated last year. There are three reasons they might pull pitchers early.

• They might be avoiding a third time through the line up. I think this was the case with Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and the AAA reinforcements. In this case they need better pitchers. Absent better pitchers I think I would have a short leash with them too.
• They might be keeping pitch count down to try to keep pitchers healthy. This might be the case with Sonny Gray who often saw more than 18 batters. He also was placed on the injured in April and then the end of May. They may have been overly cautious keeping his pitch counts under 100 in July and August but those two injuries had to play a role in the way they used him. Sonny Gray also ended the season injured. Bailey Ober also fits in the this grouping. 
• They might not be pitching effectively that day.

That really just leaves Joe Ryan who was healthy and effective. He surpassed 100 pitches several times and routinely saw the top of the order the third time through. He did need to get ramped up with pitch count to start the season and maybe for a start after his bout with COVID but his use was different than the rest of the staff.

I think the best strategy is to find effective starters and keep them healthy. They need more Joe Ryans.

 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

• They might be avoiding a third time through the line up. I think this was the case with Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer

Regarding Archer, I think someone in authority was quoted after season's end as saying they were hoping for longer starts from Archer but he never got up to that level.  Moreso than avoiding some set number of things, it could be that they have in-game benchmarks and when his arm slot starts to drop down or his velocity has decreased then they start looking toward the bullpen, and Archer just couldn't keep up the necessary output after the fourth inning or so?

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

They tried to let Mahle do it?

His first two games were perfectly in alignment with the rest of the season. 86 pitches (both games) and 22 batters faced (both games) the second game he had a 3 hit shutout going. (These numbers were way down compared to what he was doing for the Reds)

Also the Twins philosophy has been the same for a few years now minus when they where showcasing Berrios for those few starts. Keep it under 100, face 22 batters (or less) and if you keep your pitch count down, hits and walks down, you can start the 5th or 6th inning, maybe the 7th, just don't let anybody get on base or face the opposite handed batter.

This response wasn't complaining about what they are doing it is to point out in fact what they are and have been doing. Will they change this next year, I highly, highly doubt it. Doesn't mean one of more of the starters couldn't average 6ish innings per start but for that to happen they would have to be amazing in most starts.

You think they were showcasing Berrios from the beginning of the year? You think in 2019 and 2020, that they had the same philosophy?

Archer was never ready to throw that many pitches. Bundy wasn't good enough. Ryan was a rookie and got sick. Gray was hurt on and off. Which pitcher did you WANT to go thru the order three times or more?

There was an entire thread about how this was NOT their philosophy before this last year. 

[nicksaviking]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This wasn't their philosophy before this year. Maybe with healthy and better starters, it won't be next year. I was disappointed they didn't piggy back more, given what they had.

Archer couldn't go more, did people want Bundy to? They tried to let Mahle do it.....

Yeah, this team changes their pitching and offensive strategies regularly. Everyone is certainly allowed to disapprove of the guys in charge, but they do tend to adjust year-to-year. Whether or not it works is a different matter. Either way, the pitching angle didn't work last year, so I'd guess something changes next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, this team changes their pitching and offensive strategies regularly. Everyone is certainly allowed to disapprove of the guys in charge, but they do tend to adjust year-to-year. Whether or not it works is a different matter. Either way, the pitching angle didn't work last year, so I'd guess something changes next year.

I'd guess Ryan routinely goes 100ish pitches. Gray, when healthy, goes 6 innings. Other than that? I don't know what they'll do with Varland, Ober, and SWR (and the returning injured vets).

Before they dealt for Mahle, I suggested trading for him and making him a 2 inning RP that came in during the 6th inning after Archer or Bundy pitched. I wonder if he's more or less likely to get hurt that way.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

"We want a pitcher, not a cement mixer". "Stick a fork in him, he's all done". Or my two personal favorite bench jockey-shouted phrases, yelled at 2 skinny high school pitchers: "Hey Jockstrap, put some rocks in your pocket or the wind will blow you off the mound." and that same game when I went in to relieve "Jockstrap", they yelled: "Here comes the Son of Jockstrap !"  I still remember, 60 years later. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think they were showcasing Berrios from the beginning of the year? You think in 2019 and 2020, that they had the same philosophy?

Archer was never ready to throw that many pitches. Bundy wasn't good enough. Ryan was a rookie and got sick. Gray was hurt on and off. Which pitcher did you WANT to go thru the order three times or more?

There was an entire thread about how this was NOT their philosophy before this last year. 

2021 Berrios

Innings, ER, pitches, batters faced

6, 0, 84, 19

5.2, 2 ,99, 23

4.1, 4, 77, 18

5, 1 ,89, 19

5.2, 2, 83,23

Then in May

6, 4, 95, 25

6, 2, 104, 27

7, 4, 103, 29

5, 3, 84, 19

5.2, 1, 106, 27

8, 1, 101, 29

6, 4, 99, 26

7, 2, 99, 27

6, 3, 103, 27

6,1, 1, 96, 29

6, 4, 99, 26,

7, 2, 99, 27

6, 3, 103, 27

6.1, 96, 24

5, 3, 89, 26

7, 1, 106, 25

7, 4, 108, 27

6, 5, 94, 24

7, 0, 101, 26

So yes I do think after they realized they couldn't sign him they were show casing him. In 2020 they let him go 100 pitches twice, and 4 times he faced more than 24 or more batters. In 2019 of his 32 starts 12 times he pitched 100 pitches he did face more batters that year but most pitchers did as well.

 

 

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Archer was never ready to throw that many pitches. Bundy wasn't good enough. Ryan was a rookie and got sick. Gray was hurt on and off. Which pitcher did you WANT to go thru the order three times or more?

I think you missed this - This response wasn't complaining about what they are doing it is to point out in fact what they are and have been doing

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

'd guess Ryan routinely goes 100ish pitches.

He averaged 89 in 2022 so basically he did that last year when he was on, is problem was he wasn't very efficient sometimes. The question would be if he is more efficient would his innings go up?