Get To Know 'Em: Future Twin "PTBNL"

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There was no Twins game last Thursday, but there was still activity at 1 Twins Way as the team completed a trade with the Padres. Heading to San Diego was Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and a whole bunch of cash. Coming back to Minneapolis was Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and the always interesting “player to be named later.”

 

So far - and understandably so - there has been very little information released on the future mystery player aside from one tweet from Darren “Doogie” Wolfson. 

Anything beyond that is complete speculation. 

But speculation can be fun, so let’s take a closer look at who the Twins might be adding in the next few weeks.

To give me an idea of players who might be included, I plugged the trade into Baseball Trade Values. Obviously, this isn't an exact science, but it’s probably the least biased way to come up with a list of names.

Plugging in the trade as it happened, the simulator had the Twins giving up 4.9 more value points than it received. The potential inclusion of any of the Padres top prospects would tip the scale heavily in the Twins favor, but there are a number of prospects in the next tier who could make sense as this “player to be named later.”

Typically, when a trade like this occurs, the teams agree to a list of players and conditions. It could be as simple as having six names on a list and the Twins get to pick one name off of that list on May 1. It could be something more complex. It could be - and this case might be - something that makes a whole lot of sense.

Let’s take a look at some names that may be on that list. And why the Twins may want them. Ranked from least likely to most likely to be a Twin, in my opinion. 

Joshua Mears, Outfield. Ranked in the system’s Top 10 by both MLB.com and Baseball America, Mears was drafted in 2019. His power is his calling card. He already has two home runs in three games this season in high-A, but has struck out in eight of his twelve at bats. As the top-rated prospect on my list and - in my opinion - the likelihood that the Twins prefer pitching, I think the chances of Mears being the player is small.

Samuel Zavana, Outfield. Zavana checks in on BA’s list at #12, but missed MLB.com’s. Zavala fits the profile of what the Twins like with a scouting report that includes things like “regarded as one of the best pure hitters” in his signing class and having “long possessed a knack for finding the barrel.” The 17-year-old would make a ton of sense. But in trying to sleuth this out, Zavala will be playing in the complex league this year, so the Twins won't even get a chance to scout him between now and then. So if it were to be him, why not just include him in the original deal?

Victor Acosta, Shortstop. Acosta, like Zavana, will be playing in a complex league this summer. Ranked #11 by MLB and #12 by BA, I put Acosta a notch above Zavana because he has more defensive value. But, again, if you can’t see him in the next month, wouldn’t you have wanted to get him into your complex as soon as possible?

Robert Gasser, Pitcher. Gasser is ranked #9 on both sites after being selected in the Competitive Balance, B Round in the 2021 draft. After getting 15 innings of pro ball under his belt last year, Gasser, a lefty, made his High-A debut last week. It was brutal. Four walks, four hits, seven outs. I don’t think a single game is a reason the Twins wouldn’t trade for him though, I think it’s because the Padres would be less likely to include him on the list.

The next guy is a complete wild-card who technically fits Doogie’s profile.

Adrian Morejon, Pitcher. Morejan, 23, is a highly-regarded Cuban left-hander who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s a “non-roster” guy because he’s on the 60-day Injured List, so he wouldn’t require a 40-man move. Morejan has 16 games of MLB experience under his belt and spent the last five seasons ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100. While not expected to return to the mound until later this season, it’s been a year since his surgery. Being a PTBNL could just be a way of giving the Twins a chance to get a greater feel of how his recovery is going. Remember, this trade all came together very quickly.

For what it's worth, even though there are over 100 potential players for this to be, I’d bet on it being one of these three over the field. Full disclosure: I like taking long odds. It’s not often successful.

Victor Lizarraga, Pitcher. Signed out of Mexico last year and ranked #13 by MLB and #15 by BA, Lizarraga is pitching in Low-A ball at 18 this year. He would make a ton of sense as a lottery ticket in a trade such as this. He’s a fastball/curveball/changeup pitcher with shaky command.

Kevin Kopps, Pitcher. Kopps, currently in AA, ranks #14 on BA’s list and  #16 on MLB’s list. Drafted in the 3rd round last year, Kopps spread his 14 ⅔ innings over three levels, striking out 22 and notching three saves. Kopps is serving as a closer using one big weapon: a breaking ball that has been nearly unhittable. Some call it a cutter, some call it a slider. Baseball America calls it the best slider in the system. The Twins, if I had to guess, would deploy whatever it is in the same way they used Sergio Romo’s and Tyler Clippard’s sliders. Kopps, who turns 25 soon, has Tommy John in his rearview and could soon be a bullpen option for whatever team he is on.

Jarlin Susana, Pitcher. Susana is ranked #18 by MLB.com and the just-turned-18-year-old has an impressive and imposing 6’ 6”, 235-pound frame. Signed in January by the Padres for $1.7 million, Susana has a big-time fastball that can touch 100 and a slider that is next best pitch (among the four he throws). So what separates him from the other complex league pitchers? Because of when he signed, he can’t be traded until later this month. ? Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe Susana is the player to be named later.

(The Padres also added many other international free agents in mid-January who become eligible to be traded later this month. Among them are two 16-year-old infielders, Yendry Rojas and Rosman Verdugo. Neither are as highly regarded as Susana, though. Rojas, from Cuba, is a very good hitter with decent size (6' 1", 190) and speed and Verdugo, from Mexico, was considered the top prospect from Mexico.)

What do you think? Who do you prefer?

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[diehardtwinsfan]

the deal didn't look that bad in my opinion without the ptbnl. I didn't realize there's one there, but I like it more now that I see that. We're kind of top heavy in the farm right now, so a non roster player with some talent in the lower minors would be really nice. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Love it!

[Dman]

Nice sleuthing and I like Jarlin Susana as the most likely pick.  First as stated he can't be traded until next month and second because he makes sense as a Petty replacement who they traded for Gray.  No way to know if he will be the one but he makes the most sense to me. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

56 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

The next guy is a complete wild-card who technically fits Doogie’s profile.

Adrian Morejon, Pitcher. Morejan, 23, is a highly-regarded Cuban left-hander who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s a “non-roster” guy because he’s on the 60-day Injured List, so he wouldn’t require a 40-man move.

I don't think Morejon even technically fits Doogie's profile. Even if you twist "non-roster" to mean "actually on the roster but not currently counting against it" (a distinction I've never really seen apply to the term), Doogie's full quote said "non-roster minor leaguer." I don't think there's any way to classify Morejon into a "minor leaguer" at the moment, given that he is on the MLB IL, hasn't pitched in the minors since July 2019, and even has MLB postseason experience since then (2020).

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

To give me an idea of players who might be included, I plugged the trade into Baseball Trade Values. Obviously, this isn't an exact science, but it’s probably the least biased way to come up with a list of names.

Plugging in the trade as it happened, the simulator had the Twins giving up 4.9 more value points than it received.

Jeremy, I believe you are mis-using the tool.

You're looking at the surplus value estimates now, so you're double-counting the cash. Rogers at full salary was only valued at $7.2 mil; with the Twins cash, his surplus value to the Padres is now $13.8 mil ($7.2 mil plus the $6.6 mil cash).

Baseball Trade Values actually posted about the trade and according to them, the Padres actually overpaid by $1.7 mil in surplus value:

Quote

April 7: Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Chris Paddack ($17.4M), Emilio Pagan ($0.0M) and a PTBNL (unknown) from the San Diego Padres in exchange for LHP Taylor Rogers ($7.2M), OF Brent Rooker ($1.9M) and cash ($6.6M)

The cash is a big deal here. With it, the deal is accepted by the model as a minor overpay by San Diego ($17.4M to $15.7M); without it, it’s flat-out rejected.

Given that, it seems doubtful that the PTBNL will be of any particular significance.

[LewFordLives]

I'm in the camp that doesn't really get this trade. I just can't believe they blew a hole in their bullpen for a reclamation project like Paddack. Given that....I'm hoping that PTBNL is someone the Twins really covet, and not some toss-in/lotto ticket type. 

[RJA]

Good discussion.  If the trade is pretty much even already, and the player to be named is a nonprospect prospect, why not just name the player now rather than waiting a month?  As the Twins have been looking for pitching trades since last fall, I can't believe they are not pretty familiar with the Padres' farm system.  After all, they have been trying to acquire Paddack forever.  It would make sense if the person cannot be traded yet which would include some of the names mentioned.  

1 hour ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Jeremy, I believe you are mis-using the tool.

You're looking at the surplus value estimates now, so you're double-counting the cash. Rogers at full salary was only valued at $7.2 mil; with the Twins cash, his surplus value to the Padres is now $13.8 mil ($7.2 mil plus the $6.6 mil cash).

Baseball Trade Values actually posted about the trade and according to them, the Padres actually overpaid by $1.7 mil in surplus value:

Given that, it seems doubtful that the PTBNL will be of any particular significance.

Good info.  Why do you think there is a delay in naming the player?  I would think they know the Padres' minor league system pretty well, so why not just name the player now?  I would appreciate your thoughts on this Otto von Ballpark.

[Monkeypaws]

Let it be Gasser - great name for a pitcher.

[bunsen82]

I think the PTBNL will be a much lower prospect than what was being discussed above.  If we can get any of those players it will be a major win for the twins affectively in my mind.  Paddack has a lot more value than most realize and similar to what the twins did in effectively salary dumping Donaldson, the Padres were willing to do it to get under the salary cap threshold. Otherwise I don't think they would do it.  Their maneuvers just like what we did with the trades that gave us the cap relief to sign Correa, greatly helped this year performance and excitement,  but just like us there is no long term value in the 2 trades the Padres did for Manea and Rogers.  It helps them win now, unless they want to flip them at the deadline.  

Paddack on the other hand is on long term contract and has much more potential value as starter than even Rogers as a closer.   We used cash to essentially to buy Paddack,  and then added in a little extra to get them under the salary line.   That extra will be what determines the PTBNL,  The fact is we just don't know how much money that was.  My guess is it is closer to the 1.5 million range as suggested in other posts.  

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't think Morejon even technically fits Doogie's profile. Even if you twist "non-roster" to mean "actually on the roster but not currently counting against it" (a distinction I've never really seen apply to the term), Doogie's full quote said "non-roster minor leaguer." I don't think there's any way to classify Morejon into a "minor leaguer" at the moment, given that he is on the MLB IL, hasn't pitched in the minors since July 2019, and even has MLB postseason experience since then (2020).

Also too, if the guy you trade for is on the 60-day IL, can you transfer him directly to yours, without first opening up a 40-man spot and then IL'ing him?  I don't think so, but that's only from playing OOTP.

[Tim]

Garrett Hawkins is who the Twins should be targeting

[Mike Sixel]

Great writeup. I'd be thrilled if it is any of those. 

[Rigby]

1 hour ago, Monkeypaws said:

Let it be Gasser - great name for a pitcher.

We had a prospect in the 1980's, Steve Gasser, that I had high hopes for. Perhaps they are related?

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I too believe this will be a filler-type prospect.  Any of these options would be a pleasant surprise.  I love this trade.  I'd take Duran closing games straight up right now in exchange for Rogers.  It's not a coincidence that last night Duffey pitched the 7th inning (where he belongs) and Duran closed in a fairly close, but non-save, situation.  Paddock, even in a "down" year had an ERA just over 5.  Look at some of the other 4th-5th starters around the majors....he stacks up nicely.  And don't sleep on Pagan.....he'll end up being a valuable bullpen arm.  

[roger]

I think the Twins won the trade before taking the PTBNL into consideration.  I knew nothing about Pagan, but what I saw in his first outing, I liked.  So I don't see it as a big downgrade from Rogers to Pagan.  Add the huge difference between Paddack and Rooker and I see it as a Twins win.  That was partially offset by the $6.6M, thus something coming back makes sense.  But like several above, I don't see it as being a prospect as highly ranked as those listed.  If it were one of them, I would view it as an absolute steal by the Twins.

[baul0010]

This is a bummer.  I was hoping it was Fernando Tatis.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

5 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Jeremy, I believe you are mis-using the tool.

You're looking at the surplus value estimates now, so you're double-counting the cash. Rogers at full salary was only valued at $7.2 mil; with the Twins cash, his surplus value to the Padres is now $13.8 mil ($7.2 mil plus the $6.6 mil cash).

Baseball Trade Values actually posted about the trade and according to them, the Padres actually overpaid by $1.7 mil in surplus value:

Given that, it seems doubtful that the PTBNL will be of any particular significance.

You're probably right. I just went into the tool and reversed the trade and took the difference, not accounting for Rogers value being higher now than before. 

But either way, it's going to be someone and being a recent IFA-signee makes the most sense. Susana is probably aiming too high.

Dang. I liked him. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Also too, if the guy you trade for is on the 60-day IL, can you transfer him directly to yours, without first opening up a 40-man spot and then IL'ing him?  I don't think so, but that's only from playing OOTP.

I've read that's it allowed to trade a player on the 60-day IL. You can only use the 60-day IL with a full 40-man. I am not sure if a 60-day IL'd player named as a PTBNL has to be reinstated to either 40-man. I cannot think of an example of this happening before.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

5 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't think Morejon even technically fits Doogie's profile. Even if you twist "non-roster" to mean "actually on the roster but not currently counting against it" (a distinction I've never really seen apply to the term), Doogie's full quote said "non-roster minor leaguer." I don't think there's any way to classify Morejon into a "minor leaguer" at the moment, given that he is on the MLB IL, hasn't pitched in the minors since July 2019, and even has MLB postseason experience since then (2020).

I included Morejon later because I thought it would be an interested maneuver. But, yeah, I'd think you're right on it not being Morejon. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Another thing that I heard... maybe it was Seth that mentioned it on here or just me, was that there have been questions about Paddack's elbow, so the PTBN might be allowing some time to see how he pitches over the first month of the season. 

Could it be that if the elbow acts up, there might be a different list...?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Another thing that I heard... maybe it was Seth that mentioned it on here or just me, was that there have been questions about Paddack's elbow, so the PTBN might be allowing some time to see how he pitches over the first month of the season. 

Could it be that if the elbow acts up, there might be a different list...?

That was my first thought. 

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I've read that's it allowed to trade a player on the 60-day IL. You can only use the 60-day IL with a full 40-man. I am not sure if a 60-day IL'd player named as a PTBNL has to be reinstated to either 40-man. I cannot think of an example of this happening before.

Both these principles coincide with what I understand, too.  I just don't know quite for sure how they translate to the case of a trade, and likewise I don't recall such a case to use as a precedent.  I trust that our FO will know, and not find themselves having to expose someone to waivers unexpectedly because the order of the steps has to be carried out some certain way.

[Linus]

I never considered the injury aspect. Without that the player is not going to be anybody as good as this list. 

[roger]

Maybe they could get a young catcher, say Valenzuela, who isn’t ranked as high as those listed above.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Rigby said:

We had a prospect in the 1980's, Steve Gasser, that I had high hopes for. Perhaps they are related?

Correct. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gasser001ste

[AKTwins]

I can see it being Brandon Valenzua.  Twins could use a catching prospect that has a ceiling above defense first back-up.  20th on Pads prospect list which is about as high as I think the PTBNL will be.  International signing that does not need to be on the 40 man anytime soon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

But either way, it's going to be someone and being a recent IFA-signee makes the most sense.

I think the vast majority of PTBNL don't have any trade restrictions attached -- they're just marginal guys on a list, and the acquiring team just has some time to decide. I'd guess that's the case here too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

Also too, if the guy you trade for is on the 60-day IL, can you transfer him directly to yours, without first opening up a 40-man spot and then IL'ing him?  I don't think so, but that's only from playing OOTP.

I think injured players can be traded without any such maneuvers. From The Cub Reporter - Restrictions on Trading Players:

Quote

10. A player on an MLB or minor league injured list can be traded, even if the player is not eligible to be reinstated and/or healthy enough to play.
NOTE: As far as a player having to spend a certain number of days on an IL before he is eligible to be reinstated is concerned, in the case of a trade, time already spent on an injured list is carried-over to the player's new club.

For example, Nick Madrigal was traded while on the 60-day IL last season:

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Another thing that I heard... maybe it was Seth that mentioned it on here or just me, was that there have been questions about Paddack's elbow, so the PTBN might be allowing some time to see how he pitches over the first month of the season. 

Could it be that if the elbow acts up, there might be a different list...?

That's an interesting idea, although health is kind of a subjective criteria. We've seen how it affected trades with San Fran and Boston in recent years. It's hard to imagine that could swing the PTBNL value too much, or it would be prone to manipulation.