Would You Do This Trade With The A's?

[BornIn91]

So we know the moves the Twins have made recently make no sense if there isn't at least one big splashy move coming (I mean, they could just be trying to cut payroll, but if so, why bother getting Gray? But I digress). We know the Twins are communicating with Story, and we also know there has been trade talks with the A's centered around either Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. My unfounded personal feeling is that Falvine doesn't do the Donaldson trade, which basically leaves them with no SS and a 3B of questionable quality (not to mention an incomplete rotation and a notable downgrade at catcher), unless they are reasonably convinced they can deliver on said big splashy moves. Thus...

Suppose the Twins get Story (as the following trade proposal is contingent on getting Story). Then they go to the A's with this offer...

Twins get
- Matt Chapman
- Sean Manaea
- Minor League flier

A's get
- Royce Lewis
- Simeon Woods-Richardson
- Gio Urshela

Chapman is FA-eligible in 2024, Manaea in 2023. They combine for 20M in 2022, and with Story likely around 25M (and losing Urshela's 6.5M), that would put the Twins just about at their projected payroll max. Lewis (as a SS) no longer fits the puzzle since they have Story. SWR gets involved in his 3rd blockbuster trade as a borderline top-100 prospect. Urshela provides a live body/bridge for the A's at 3rd with Chapman gone.

Who says no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Welcome to Twins Daily!

I was intrigued enough by this proposal to enter into BaseballTradeValues.com:

Of course, teams likely have different internal valuations, but FWIW, the Matt Olson trade today was almost spot-on:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-75821/

[Cap'n Piranha]

17 minutes ago, BornIn91 said:

So we know the moves the Twins have made recently make no sense if there isn't at least one big splashy move coming (I mean, they could just be trying to cut payroll, but if so, why bother getting Gray? But I digress). We know the Twins are communicating with Story, and we also know there has been trade talks with the A's centered around either Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. My unfounded personal feeling is that Falvine doesn't do the Donaldson trade, which basically leaves them with no SS and a 3B of questionable quality (not to mention an incomplete rotation and a notable downgrade at catcher), unless they are reasonably convinced they can deliver on said big splashy moves. Thus...

Suppose the Twins get Story (as the following trade proposal is contingent on getting Story). Then they go to the A's with this offer...

Twins get
- Matt Chapman
- Sean Manaea
- Minor League flier

A's get
- Royce Lewis
- Simeon Woods-Richardson
- Gio Urshela

Chapman is FA-eligible in 2024, Manaea in 2023. They combine for 20M in 2022, and with Story likely around 25M (and losing Urshela's 6.5M), that would put the Twins just about at their projected payroll max. Lewis (as a SS) no longer fits the puzzle since they have Story. SWR gets involved in his 3rd blockbuster trade as a borderline top-100 prospect. Urshela provides a live body/bridge for the A's at 3rd with Chapman gone.

Who says no?

To be honest?  Prior to the 2021 season I would have said yes (replace SWR with say, Balazovic).

Right now I say no.  I don't think this does enough to get the Twins into a Top 4 of the league in 2022, and if the Twins indeed bring Story aboard, I don't think they extend Manaea.  I further don't think they extend Chapman (especially because you might need to play Lewis and/or Martin there part time, not to mention Miranda), so that feels like a lot to give up for 3 years of control when those years aren't likely WS-contending ones.

[wsnydes]

I'm actually wondering if the A's do that deal.  Lewis hasn't played in two years and SWR has consistency issues, and Urshela is coming off a down year - which could get worse moving from the very hitter friendly Yankee stadium to the polar opposite Oakland Coliseum.

That said, just because SS would be filled by Story, assuming Lewis is surplus just because of that seems foolhardy if you believe that he can play SS.  An athlete like that can play anywhere - including CF.  I'm one that feels Lewis is pretty important to this team.  If he pans out, that's a game changer along with Martin and Buxton.  Which is why, in this scenario, I'd say no.  I don't think it moves the needle enough to counter the loss of Lewis and SWR for a longer run than 2024.  I also believe that this team has internal options to fill in at 3B, including Lewis and/or Martin.

I'd be more interested in going after Manaea on his own, but that's a much different trade scenario.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes. 

[BornIn91]

7 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Welcome to Twins Daily!

I was intrigued enough by this proposal to enter into BaseballTradeValues.com:

Of course, teams likely have different internal valuations, but FWIW, the Matt Olson trade today was almost spot-on:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-75821/

I did this too. If Winder is put in instead of SWR, it works, and I'd be good with that too. They're roughly equal in my eyes. But I went with SWR because I feel like he's a more established prospect nationally.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Sorry but I've got too much invested in Lewis to part with him at this point, unless I'm blown away with an offer. This scenario does not blow me away.  

[jorgenswest]

I would prefer to pay up for the extra year of control from Montas. Chapman probably isn’t part of that deal.

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Sorry but I've got too much invested in Lewis to part with him at this point, unless I'm blown away with an offer. This scenario does not blow me away.  

Gotta deal quality to get it back. He hasn't played in his long? Where do you play him full time? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gotta deal quality to get it back. He hasn't played in his long? Where do you play him full time? 

Triple A.

[tony&rodney]

The Oakland A's would not do this trade. Urshela is a utility infielder that costs $6.5 million and there are bound to be teams that have placed a higher value for Chapman. 

I would welcome a trade for Manaea and/or Montas and a FA signing like Trevor Story would free the Twins to offer Royce Lewis. Maybe a trade of Arraez, SWR, Lewis, and Strotman for Montas and then Larnach for Manaea.

[glunn]

5 hours ago, BornIn91 said:

So we know the moves the Twins have made recently make no sense if there isn't at least one big splashy move coming (I mean, they could just be trying to cut payroll, but if so, why bother getting Gray? But I digress). We know the Twins are communicating with Story, and we also know there has been trade talks with the A's centered around either Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. My unfounded personal feeling is that Falvine doesn't do the Donaldson trade, which basically leaves them with no SS and a 3B of questionable quality (not to mention an incomplete rotation and a notable downgrade at catcher), unless they are reasonably convinced they can deliver on said big splashy moves. Thus...

Suppose the Twins get Story (as the following trade proposal is contingent on getting Story). Then they go to the A's with this offer...

Twins get
- Matt Chapman
- Sean Manaea
- Minor League flier

A's get
- Royce Lewis
- Simeon Woods-Richardson
- Gio Urshela

Chapman is FA-eligible in 2024, Manaea in 2023. They combine for 20M in 2022, and with Story likely around 25M (and losing Urshela's 6.5M), that would put the Twins just about at their projected payroll max. Lewis (as a SS) no longer fits the puzzle since they have Story. SWR gets involved in his 3rd blockbuster trade as a borderline top-100 prospect. Urshela provides a live body/bridge for the A's at 3rd with Chapman gone.

Who says no?

Great first post.  Why Manaea not Montas?

[BornIn91]

1 hour ago, glunn said:

Great first post.  Why Manaea not Montas?

Montas has more trade value than Manaea, being younger, having more years of control, and coming off a better season. He's too good to be a part of a package. 

Of course, Chapman arguably is too, but he's also a little bit of a buy-low guy at the moment (he hit .210 with a 100 OPS+ last year and had a just 3.5 fWAR  compared to 7.6 and 7.7 in 2018-19), so he'd get a better return in a package (and even my proposed package might be a tad bit light, only boosted mainly by the fact that one player is a former first-overall pick).

[weitz41]

 I don’t see Oakland trading those two in the same trade. To follow flavaines trade for a trade goofiness…and assuming Story is being added to the Twins and that isn’t another Darvish or Wheeler type of shucks guy we really tried hard nonsense..How about Montas and Langiers for Lewis, Winder and a 20-30 prospect.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gotta deal quality to get it back. He hasn't played in his long? Where do you play him full time? 

St Paul to start. Then the OF in Minneapolis.

[RJA]

I would not trade any group of top prospects for a pitcher with one year of control unless I was confident this team could get to the playoffs and make some noise.  In my humble opinion, the Twins are likely to be much more competitive in 2023 and beyond and Manaea might very well be gone after one year.  Chapman has not really put up great offensive numbers in the past two years, including a .210 BA last year, so I wouldn't invest heavily in prospect capital for him.   Frankly, I would prefer Montas by a substantial margin but his cost will be more in terms of prospects as he is a better pitcher and has two years control.  The one advantage the Twins have is that the whole world knows the A's are selling off, so it gives them a little more leverage.  It will depend who else is interested and what they offer. The A's just acquired a catcher with promise from Atlanta.  Hmm.

[terrydactyls]

How about this trade?

Arraez, Balazovic, and Lewis to the A's for Montas and Shea Longeliers ( a defense first catcher who is the A's #2 prospect).  It's close to even at trade values (67.4 to 63.2 in the Twins favor).

[Dman]

I don't like Lewis as the primary piece if they would be willing to build around Arraez or Larnach I could see that working.  Still if I were the Twins I would focus on Montas as he has two years of control and is the better pitcher.  Chapman could certainly help this team but we have options for third and not much at short or top of the rotation starters. Pitcher with more than one year of control would be even best since the Twins don't appear to extend pitchers because of cost and injury risk.

Trading Lewis the one up the middle 5 tool player we have seems like a bad idea to me.  We have plenty of depth behind Arraez and we could do without Larnach if needed.  I would look more at trades for high end pitchers or shortstop rather than 3rd base right now.  Just my opinion though.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't like Lewis as the primary piece if they would be willing to build around Arraez or Larnach I could see that working.  Still if I were the Twins I would focus on Montas as he has two years of control and is the better pitcher.  Chapman could certainly help this team but we have options for third and not much at short or top of the rotation starters. Pitcher with more than one year of control would be even best since the Twins don't appear to extend pitchers because of cost and injury risk.

Trading Lewis the one up the middle 5 tool player we have seems like a bad idea to me.  We have plenty of depth behind Arraez and we could do without Larnach if needed.  I would look more at trades for high end pitchers or shortstop rather than 3rd base right now.  Just my opinion though.

You want to trade for high end pitching, but won't include up the middle prospects in the deal? Good luck. 

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You want to trade for high end pitching, but won't include up the middle prospects in the deal? Good luck. 

The Twins did just that with Berrios.  No one really thought Martin a shortstop right?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

The Twins did just that with Berrios.  No one really thought Martin a shortstop right?

On a one year deal. And the twins played martin more at short than anywhere else, didn't they? He's also their number one prospect..... I'd guess he's a better MLB hitter than a good number of current twins right now. 

If you include one top fifty prospect, and one top 150 prospect u can get a one year rental. I hope they aren't paying that price for a one year rental. So, yes, you can.

But not for Larnach and a pitching prospect, no.

[mike8791]

Now that this FO has finally shown some trading balls, yes, it does make sense to speculate on such a trade.  My two cents:

1.  No reason to bring in Chapman.  I think a lot of TD members are underestimating Urshela.  He showed plenty of potential in '19/'20 and with his ability to play both SS/3B, gives the Twins the flexibility needed, as well as the insurance needed in case Miranda isn't ready.  NYY blogs rave about his defensive abilities, even at SS.  Keep him!

2.  The A's will not give up a potential 1 or 2 starter cheaply.  The Braves had to give up 3 top 10 prospects to get Olson.  The Twins would likely have to do something similar.  First, the target should be Montas as he is controllable for 2 years and looks to have higher upside.  But the Twins must be ready now to give him an extension beyond the 2 years; otherwise, we wind up with Berrios 2.0.  He's worth it!

3.  In terms of trade capital, certainly Balazovic or Winder would have to be included. Ditto Lewis or Martin.  These latter two seem duplicative - can't play SS, Bux already in CF, talents might be wasted at corner OF.  Sure, I'd rather keep Lewis, but in either case, the presence of both allows the trading of one without significant long term loss.  I would try to get by with additional surplus players, starting with Arraez, maybe Larnach, and then a fourth 10-20 prospect(probably a pitcher.

4.  I would try to expand the trade to get one of A's relievers(Puk or Trevino) and Longeliers. or Sean Murphy.  And if a Story signing is not in the cards(certainly a greater than a 50% probability at this juncture), take on Elvis Andrus's salary as an interim solution at short.

Yes, all very AJ Prellerish but a blockbuster of this type could certainly move the needle in 2022.

[Mike Sixel]

Why would people rather have Lewis than Martin? Which one hit well last year, in his first full season in baseball, in AA? I really don't get it. 

[dex8425]

I'd rather give up prospect capital to land Montas instead of Chapman. I don't think the A's want Urshela and they might not want Lewis either. 

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why would people rather have Lewis than Martin? Which one hit well last year, in his first full season in baseball, in AA? I really don't get it. 

Because Martin isn't fast, doesn't have a strong arm and lacks power. Martin is not an projectable as an MVP type of player. Martin is a high floor, moderate ceiling type of player in my opinion. If he's moved to the corner outfield spot people keep talking about, his ceiling is probably 3.0-4.0 WAR. 

Conversely, if Lewis' elite athleticism allows him to play even average shortstop, he could be a more valuable player than a healthy Buxton. 

[dex8425]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why would people rather have Lewis than Martin? Which one hit well last year, in his first full season in baseball, in AA? I really don't get it. 

I think it's because Lewis has the ability to stick at short, whereas Martin profiles more as a Centerfielder, 2b or corner OF with limited pop and high obp skills who steals bases. Both are valuable, but Lewis' ceiling is much, much higher. 

[Dman]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

On a one year deal. And the twins played martin more at short than anywhere else, didn't they? He's also their number one prospect..... I'd guess he's a better MLB hitter than a good number of current twins right now. 

If you include one top fifty prospect, and one top 150 prospect u can get a one year rental. I hope they aren't paying that price for a one year rental. So, yes, you can.

But not for Larnach and a pitching prospect, no.

Agreed it would take more than Larnach and one pitcher to get Montas but I would try and use Larnach as my headliner.  On the trade values site he has as much value as Lewis because Lewis is an unknown especially with the bat. 

Still Lewis is the only player even close that can potentially play shortstop for the Twins.  Could be a bad idea to keep him if the bat never comes around but I think it will.  Probably not elite status like Martin but hopefully a mid 700's OPS as he does have power.

The A's might not like Larnach for the headliner without even more added so they might say no way to that deal it is just I hate to give away the only guy in the system that play short anytime soon.  I wouldn't want to give up Martin either which is why I try and use Arraez as a headliner.  He might not fit the A's plans maybe he does.  Don't know for sure but they have value on the chart and are guys I would look to move first.

[bean5302]

Honestly, if the front office made the suggested trade, I'd fire Falvey on the spot. Not because of the trade, but because it assures he tanked on the number 1 overall pick. Evaluating based on performances so far and how much value they've given or are expected to give to the Twins on the field...

2017 - Royce Lewis #1
2017 - Brent Rooker #35
2018 - Trevor Larnach #20
2019 - Keoni Cavaco #13
2020 - Aaron Sabato #27
2021 - Chase Petty #26
2021 - Noah Miller #36

Not a single one of those guys would be likely to produce any significant on field WAR for the Twins. Falvey should be on a burning lava throne right now.

[Rosterman]

Maybe Winder, although would rather do Srotman. Maybe the Twins could dangle Wander Javier! Tell them we will take Elvis Andrus if they take Jake Cave!

[bean5302]

Larnach has no value, IMHO. Baseballtradevalues may show some, but all it will take is one look at his advanced metrics for any team to say "no way" on placing significant value on Larnach. AA stats don't matter when you can't hit any MLB breaking or offspeed pitches.