Front Page: Trusting Internal Starting Pitching Options

[Darius]

One of the dumbest decisions in a long line of dumb decisions made by any Twins FO since the early 90s.

[Musk21]

 

One of the dumbest decisions in a long line of dumb decisions made by any Twins FO since the early 90s.

Was what?

[ashbury]

but if other clubs aren’t willing to trade, the Twins could be left to trust internal starting pitching options.

This is for me a completely unacceptable starting point for analysis (by the front office, no fault of this article's author). Missing from any discussion I've seen so far in this thread is "what about injuries". A lingering pulled hammy for Berrios or Odorizzi makes this already-shaky scenario a full-fledged disaster.

 

If it's how the off-season plays out, and I was in charge of anything, I'd be telling my FO that their jobs are on the line if 2020 results in anything less than the post-season.^* I can accept not making the post-season, but not if Opening Day has just two established starting pitchers on the active roster, and the rest of our innings are going to be covered by hopes and wishful thinking, plus one more established starter making his grand entrance later on. Failure to win due to insufficient resources from the start, to cover a grueling season, is not a valid excuse.

 

If I counted correctly there are 19 pitchers on the 40-man (18 position players), and way too many of those bodies are not to be counted on to contribute in 2020. We were barely able to scrape together a representative 25-man roster, for the post-season series against the Yankees, and this has not really been corrected yet.

 

The off-season is not over. Our head honchos have two months to get this straightened out. I hope they do.

 

^{* _{Of course, they just got their contract extended, but I'm not in charge.}}

[DocBauer]

Echoing, briefly, what Brian stated and I have referenced before, trade or FA...I don't care which...get that guy who is at least as good, if not better than, either Berrios or Odorizzi. With Pineda, you have an awful nice 4 man staff.

 

But you don't/can't stop there as you PLAN on someone being hurt. And you also don't leave a guy in who can't get the job done just because. I WANT opportunity for these 4 guys, and we might even include Duran in there, later in the season, but I don't necessarily think you just hand over a job to one of them. Opportunity comes from Pineda being out initially, injury, double headers, and bullpen assistance as well, ALL of this provides opportunity.

 

Get the one guy. Then get Teheran, Walker, etc, to "fill up" your rotation. ALL FOUR of these guys are going to have opportunity and be asked to fill a role in 2020. ALL FOUR of these guys have decent to very good potential, with Graterol having a special arm, but all four are not exactly old or dripping with AAA experience, much ML experience.

 

But as to the primary question: "who do you trust the most to be in the rotation for the majority of the season?"

 

I'm saying Dobnak because today, right now, he seems the most ready to be that guy. Cracks me up how a guy can dominate milb at 3 levels and perform well at the ML level, albeit SSS, because he has an unusual and wonderful story. You don't do what he has done simply because you fooled people.

 

Graterol just needs a little more time, a little more nurturing so I can't pick him for the "majority" of the season. Always believed in Thorpe and still do. I think he's really close and there were times last year where he really flashed. Not dismissing Smeltzer as he just might fool us all, but he has the least amount of pure stuff and I think he will have a nice career as a middle/swing man.

 

So there you go...Dobnak.

[twins_89]

If more than one of Dobnak/Graterol/Thorpe/Smeltzer are in the rotation to start the season (when Pineda is still on suspension), the Twins could be in big trouble. If three of those guys are in the opening day rotation (which is where we currently are at), it will be a disaster.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I really hope trusting the farm is not the choice here. I don't have a problem leaving one spot to the farm and of course filling Pineda's time off with the farm as well. That's plenty. But trusting the farm is a pretty dangerous thing to do, especially given how successful rookie pitchers are when they debut. That's a lot of games potentially thrown away...

 

I'd further add that even though Graterol could be that ace we've always wanted, he's going to be on an innings limit since pitching a full season is something he's yet been able to do.. At best he's getting 120 innings this year. That means he will likely be in the pen or off the roster come playoff time. Perhaps Dobnak/Thorpe/Wells/Romero could show teh ability to hold down one of those spots, but the likelihood that 2 of them do it isn't good, adn the number of losses will pile up as we hand them 2 starts every 5 games, and that's before we talk injury. That's not good. 

 

This team needs another starter, whether that be via FA or trade. At some point, those risk valuations need to go out the door and they need to give someone like Ryu what he wants .

[lukeduke1980]

If the MLB rotation included 3 of these 4 to start the season, who would project to make up the AAA rotation?

[TheMatt]

Hey, what is Ray Searage (former Bucs pitching coach) doing now? He would be a great get as asst pitching coach. I'm sure he could help all these guys.

[MMMordabito]

With the way things currently stand, we are probably looking at something like

 

1) Berrios

2) Odorizzi

3) Dobnak

4) Thorpe or Graterol opening for Smeltzer

5) Alcala or Littell opening for Thorpe or Graterol

 

That's F$#%#$ scary.

 

The schedule isn't kind early either.  That 5th turn out-gettting gameplan will be needed right out of the shoot. Only 1 off day in the first 14 days.

 

Teheran, Cashner, Bailey or even Nova would look good at least until Pineda gets back.   

 

Something's gotta happen. That rotation plus four days of banging sounds in Oakland doesn't exactly scream "Yeah, baseball's back!!"

[kdag23]

With the way things currently stand, we are probably looking at something like

 

1) Berrios

2) Odorizzi

3) Dobnak

4) Thorpe or Graterol opening for Smeltzer

5) Alcala or Littell opening for Thorpe or Graterol

 

That's F$#%#$ scary.

 

The schedule isn't kind early either.  That 5th turn out-gettting gameplan will be needed right out of the shoot. Only 1 off day in the first 14 days.

 

Teheran, Cashner, Bailey or even Nova would look good at least until Pineda gets back.   

 

Something's gotta happen. That rotation plus four days of banging sounds in Oakland doesn't exactly scream "Yeah, baseball's back!!"

[kdag23]

This looks to be like the best of bad options after Odo. I know a lot of people are saying Graterol as a starter, but to me he is more valuable in the pen. Not that he can be trusted in the 9th, Roger's is not always going to be available and to me the more power arms you have in the bullpen the better.

[Danchat]

 

If the MLB rotation included 3 of these 4 to start the season, who would project to make up the AAA rotation?

I highly, highly doubt this happens, but for the sake of this scenario:

 

MLB

Berrios 

Odorizzi

Dobnak

Thorpe

Smeltzer

 

AAA

Graterol

Poppen

Jax

Charlie Barnes

Alcala (he really should be in bullpen)

 

I fully expect the Twins to add another MLB starter, and we'll likely see a few minor league signings to fill the AAA pitching staff as well.

[Twodogs]

I wonder if they will give Fernando Romero another shot at starting this spring?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wonder if they will give Fernando Romero another shot at starting this spring?

 

Meh, I mean, no harm, but I hope that is more hope than plan. He's shown nothing lately.

[Twodogs]

Meh, I mean, no harm, but I hope that is more hope than plan. He's shown nothing lately.

No I know, he was terrible last year when they put him in the bullpen. He had that glimps of success the year before in his first 5 or so starts. Looked like he had real promise then kinda fell apart. Maybe he has learned something or found something that he didn't have the year before??

[jorgenswest]

I think they will acquire one starter and go with two of the younger pitchers until Pineda arrives. I think one will emerge when given the opportunity. I look forward to watching the young pitchers progress.

[alphanumeric]

 

We still need 1 more veteran starter. If we were rebuilding it would be different but since we are not we can afford 1 spot in the rotation for a rookie. We already have another open spot for 6 weeks or 5 or so starts. Let's get that 1 more starter whether it be Ryu, Keuchel, or even Terehen. And I will happily trust the 5th starter spot to a rookie.

Alex Wood is still on the board and tbh idk why the twins havent nabbed him yet.  He's not gonna melt faces but he should be relatively cheap and I can see him bouncing back to a quality #3 type starter.  Plus, we're in need of a lefty.

[alphanumeric]

 

I really hope trusting the farm is not the choice here. I don't have a problem leaving one spot to the farm and of course filling Pineda's time off with the farm as well. That's plenty. But trusting the farm is a pretty dangerous thing to do, especially given how successful rookie pitchers are when they debut. That's a lot of games potentially thrown away...

 

I'd further add that even though Graterol could be that ace we've always wanted, he's going to be on an innings limit since pitching a full season is something he's yet been able to do.. At best he's getting 120 innings this year. That means he will likely be in the pen or off the roster come playoff time. Perhaps Dobnak/Thorpe/Wells/Romero could show teh ability to hold down one of those spots, but the likelihood that 2 of them do it isn't good, adn the number of losses will pile up as we hand them 2 starts every 5 games, and that's before we talk injury. That's not good. 

 

This team needs another starter, whether that be via FA or trade. At some point, those risk valuations need to go out the door and they need to give someone like Ryu what he wants .

I like the idea of a platoon of Graterol, Smeltzer, Thorpe as the #5 starter.  Each going 2 or 3 innings. It would help stretch out Graterol without blowing up his arm and give him experience facing mlb hitters.

[USAFChief]

I like the idea of a platoon of Graterol, Smeltzer, Thorpe as the #5 starter. Each going 2 or 3 innings. It would help stretch out Graterol without blowing up his arm and give him experience facing mlb hitters.

you want to devote 3 of 26 roster spots to the 5th starter?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

you want to devote 3 of 26 roster spots to the 5th starter?

Better than devoting 6 of 25 to the 4th starter:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPYH4s7_e34

[Mike Sixel]

 

Better than devoting 6 of 25 to the 4th starter:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPYH4s7_e34

 

I smiled......

[Mike Sixel]

 

you want to devote 3 of 26 roster spots to the 5th starter?

I think there is a limit to the number of pitchers also....so, ya, no.

[specialiststeve]

May want to check your stats... Per baseball reference. Dobnak had ...

 

28.1 innings pitched... 9 appearances 5 starts ERA 1.59 and whip of 1.129... 

 

Would love to find a Ryu to head the staff but Dobnak at the 5 is going to be fine. 

[howeda7]

If they have to rely on these guys with no veteran help, Falvey and Levine have failed massively at their jobs. 

[alphanumeric]

 

you want to devote 3 of 26 roster spots to the 5th starter?

it worked for Tampa Bay.   Also, I don't mean only using them every 5 days.

[Vanimal46]

May want to check your stats... Per baseball reference. Dobnak had ...

 

28.1 innings pitched... 9 appearances 5 starts ERA 1.59 and whip of 1.129...

 

Would love to find a Ryu to head the staff but Dobnak at the 5 is going to be fine.

Remember when the Turtle hit .355 in 97 MLB PAs and people wanted him to be an everyday player last winter? How’d that work out?

[Riverbrian]

 

Better than devoting 6 of 25 to the 4th starter:

 

 

 

Between "Just You-n-Me". "I've been searchin so long" for a post like that. A post that can "Make me Smile". 

[Riverbrian]

 

May want to check your stats... Per baseball reference. Dobnak had ...

 

28.1 innings pitched... 9 appearances 5 starts ERA 1.59 and whip of 1.129... 

 

Would love to find a Ryu to head the staff but Dobnak at the 5 is going to be fine. 

 

Dobnak might work out great. I'm not going to stand here and doubt him. I'm pulling for him. 

 

However, it is unnecessarily risky to hand him an opening day rotation spot after 28 innings because if he if he sophomore slumps it, then where do we go? We still have him and he can be the guy we turn to if someone else without options doesn't work out. 

 

Why spend your depth instead of money? 

 

 

[Tomj14]

 

Dobnak might work out great. I'm not going to stand here and doubt him. I'm pulling for him. 

 

However, it is unnecessarily risky to hand him an opening day rotation spot after 28 innings because if he if he sophomore slumps it, then where do we go? We still have him and he can be the guy we turn to if someone else without options doesn't work out. 

 

Why spend your depth instead of money? 

Remedy when the Berrios was starting with the Twins at age 22 and kicked butt, oh wait that didn't work out so well (that year), my bad.

[specialiststeve]

As 5th starters you go to your  depth to develop starters. Then you go to Smeltzer, Grateral, etc.... Spend the money on a high end pitcher that can help the front of the rotation and let the prospects take care of the 5th spot. How are we ever going to develop pitchers at the major league level if we don't give them a shot?