Front Page: The Twins Should be Dealing With the Marlins

[Cooper Carlson]

Hot stove season is in full swing and that means rumors are swirling around everywhere. Jon Heyman said the Marlins are looking to acquire a left-handed outfielder, and the Twins need starting pitching. These teams should make a deal this offseason.The Miami Marlins are certainly one of the more interesting teams in baseball this winter. They are coming off a 105 loss season, but they have been rumored around some big free agents and appear open to making trades. Good for them. The newest rumor is that Miami wants a lefty outfielder, so if you’re in the Twins front office, make that call.

 

So who do the Marlins actually have to offer? They just lost 105 games, right? Well, I’m glad you asked. They have two starting pitchers who have been included in rumors this offseason in Caleb Smith and Sandy Alcantara. Both would be great additions for the Twins.

 

Caleb Smith

Smith is a left-handed throwing 28-year old starting pitcher. He has only been in the league since 2017 and last season was his first season throwing at least 80 innings (153 1/3 in 2019). His stats don’t jump out at you, but acquiring him would mean you think you can make him better: 4.52 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 9.86 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, and 1.0 fWAR in 2019.

 

With around four years of control left, Smith is someone you look at if you believe he is the breakout candidate many teams believe he could be. There are a few reasons for this, starting with his solid 12.6 whiff rate. Another solid part of his game last season was his fastball. He threw it 53.8% of the time at only around 91.6 MPH. The spin rate on the fastball is among the 85th percentile, so there is something there.

 

Sandy Alcantara

Alcantara is probably the more intriguing option if you’re the Twins. He is already very good, and is not a free agent until 2025. Alcantara is coming off his first All-Star season in 2019 where he had a 3.88 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 6.89 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, and 2.3 fWAR. He has never been a huge strikeout guy and walks have always haunted him, but he is also only 23-years old.

 

He is a hard thrower with around 95 MPH on his fastball and sinker, so handing him over to Wes Johnson and the Twins pitching coaches could get him to that next level of control. If the Twins are able to acquire him and increase his strikeout rate, then they could have something special.

 

Teams are looking at Eddie Rosario

 

Rosario alone obviously wouldn’t net you a major league caliber starter like Smith or Alcantara, but the Twins have the prospects to make almost any trade happen. With Miami looking to acquire a left handed major league bat and the Twins having outstanding outfield depth, I think a trade like this makes a lot of sense.

 

I don’t think Smith or Alcantara are the big name guys fans want filling out the rotation, but they both would definitely help. Do you think a trade like this makes sense for the Twins? Are you open to trading Eddie Rosario? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don’t know much about these Marlins guys, so thanks. I wonder what kind of interest these two pitchers drew at the deadline?

 

It’s natural that other teams would value what Rosario brings to the table. Yeah if the Marlins are looking for that profile, major league left-handed bat, give them a call. But the Twins should tread carefully.

[MN_ExPat]

Nice write up Cooper. Can’t say I would love either one of them, but they bring an intriguing option for the staff.

[jrod23]

 

But the Twins should tread carefully.

 

Concur.  Nothing terribly special.  Some young guys with some upside.  Are they worth the return?

[Patrick Wozniak]

Would love to get Alcantara and see what magic Johnson could work. I did read somewhere that the Marlins are hesitant to move him. I also don't know why they would be interested in moving young, cheap, and team-controlled pitching for Eddie Rosario but I guess they are the Marlins!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

With Odorizzi on the QO and Pineda on a two year deal, you’ve only got Berrios and Pineda for 2021.

 

Development is not linear, so having more pitchers would help alleviate my anxiety...

 

Alcantara as your 5th starter in ‘20 gives a ton of upside and depth with Dobnak in AAA. We all saw how thin a rotation can get as the season wears on.

[High heat]

I don't see the Marlins wanting Rosario due to cost and only 2 years of future control. 

 Lamon

I would really like Alcantara, they may be more interested in guys like Lamonte Wade, Cave and/or Luke Haley.  Combine them with a Brent Rooker, maybe you have enough future parts to get him away from the Marlins.

[DocBauer]

Maybe there is a reason Smith debuted so late, but 28yo and throws around 91-92MPH? Hard pass!

 

Nice write up about Alcantara a few weeks ago. I admit I'm interested due to youth and velocity and would like to see what Johnson could do with him.

 

But any Rosario conversation is an immediate stop if I'm the Marlins. And I LOVE Rosario! But if I'm a cheap, 105 loss team in re-build mode, why on earth would I want a veteran player with 2yrs control and costing me almost $9M next season?

 

I'm looking for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach, 1 of Balazovic, Duran or Enlow, and a Gordon or Blankenhorn "throw in". Alcantara has velocity, is young and controllable, why would I settle for less?

 

Is that too much to give up? Just how much potential does the FO and Johnson see in Alcantara?

[railmarshalljon]

 

I think everyone can safely agree Falvey and Levine **** the bed with this offseason and may have let our window close with the white Sox now the better AL Central team on paper

 

White Sox are coming off a 72 win season, do you really think their offseason moves have put them 29 wins ahead of us? I have my doubts. Sure, they've made a couple nice moves, but they finished a distant third last year for good reasons.

[nclahammer]

The Minnesota Twins have noone ready to step in and contribrute the 30+ HRs and 100 RBI Eddie Rosario would contribute, do not make this deal.

[Dave Overlund]

 

The Minnesota Twins have noone ready to step in and contribrute the 30+ HRs and 100 RBI Eddie Rosario would contribute, do not make this deal.

Was about to type something similar. Are we really as deep at OF as we think we are? What about when Buxton misses his annual 50-80 games? 

 

We are in a position, supposedly, to add payroll. Why would we give up a known quantity in the prime of his career (and prospects!) for a reclamation project or young pitcher that -might- be good, when we could just sign a Bumgarner or Ryu? 

 

Maybe we regret the fourth and fifth years of a Bumgarner contract, but if there is a WS title in the first three years, who cares?

[jhoffman]

If Kirilloff, Larnach, or Rooker are really as good as the Twins front office thinks they are, there should be no hesitation to trade Rosario for Alcantara. What about Thorpe as the added piece?

[TopGunn#22]

The marlins need SOMEBODY to be a competent bat in theri everyday lineup.  of course they'd be interested in Eddie.  That said, I think it's absurd you'd trade a proven big league bat for either of these guys.  If I'm giving up Eddie I'm asking asking what else they're giving me in addition to Alcantara.  Kiriloff and Larnach are ready.  They will not be as good as Eddie right away, but they will be soon.  They will get on base at a much higher rate and the power will eventually come.  If I'm giving up Eddie I want somebody like Robbie Ray or Matthew Boyd.  Smith...meh.  Alcantara?  Maybe.  But certainly not straight up for a guy who got MVP votes last year and certainly not if the Twins would have to include something else.

[Twins1fan]

Agree. Would never trade an everyday with Rosario's production for a young SP. Also NL pitching stats do not transfer to AL. They never seem to be as good. The 2 years we have Rosario are 2 years the window is open. Go FA or get an over paid SP like Price where they have to include a player.

[SF Twins Fan]

It would be nice to know who the "other" teams that contacted the Twins are.

[MN_ExPat]

 

Maybe there is a reason Smith debuted so late, but 28yo and throws around 91-92MPH? Hard pass!

Nice write up about Alcantara a few weeks ago. I admit I'm interested due to youth and velocity and would like to see what Johnson could do with him.

But any Rosario conversation is an immediate stop if I'm the Marlins. And I LOVE Rosario! But if I'm a cheap, 105 loss team in re-build mode, why on earth would I want a veteran player with 2yrs control and costing me almost $9M next season?

I'm looking for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach, 1 of Balazovic, Duran or Enlow, and a Gordon or Blankenhorn "throw in". Alcantara has velocity, is young and controllable, why would I settle for less?

Is that too much to give up? Just how much potential does the FO and Johnson see in Alcantara?

Perhaps I misunderstood the piece I read, but I believe Miami inquired about Rosario not the other way around and that their FO was potentially balking about the asking price of Smith or Alcantara.   I agree, not crazy about loosing our keeper of the Rally Squirrel, but at least I would listen to offers. 

[HrbieFan]

I would roll the dice on Alcantrara, he has some good upside. If Wes can reduce that walk rate, he could be a really good weapon.

[Twins1fan]

I feel that with Trevor Bauer and Robbie Ray playing on non playoff teams that we could add a starter at the trade deadline that is as good or better that what is left in free agent pool.

[jmlease1]

Part of the benefit of the Marlins being interested in Rosario is it opens up opportunities with other teams in 3 team deals. Maybe the right pitcher comes from the Marlins, but maybe they come from somewhere else.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Minnesota Twins have noone ready to step in and contribrute the 30+ HRs and 100 RBI Eddie Rosario would contribute, do not make this deal.

 

They hit plenty of HR, and even if that was the number one priority, Rooker and Wiel are just as capable of going deep. Though I've always liked Eddie and think he's probably a good clubhouse guy, I thnk the Twins need somebody who takes good at bats and gets on base regularly.

[nicksaviking]

If somebody could explain why Caleb Smith strikes out so many batters when his stuff looks so bland and why Alcantara strikes out so few batters when his stuff looks so nasty that would be great. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I feel that with Trevor Bauer and Robbie Ray playing on non playoff teams that we could add a starter at the trade deadline that is as good or better that what is left in free agent pool.

In terms of run prevention, Bauer has one great season out of 6; Ray, 1 out of 5. How much do you want to bet that they are available at the deadline at acceptable cost *and* represent a significant upgrade? (And hope that our rotation hasn't harmed our playoff chances in the first 4 months of the season.) Keep in mind, Arizona and Cincinnati don't have to be playoff teams to not sell -- they really just have to be in the wild card race, which can be a pretty low threshold.

 

And even if you do get a rental at the deadline, you'll be right back in the same FA decision mode two months later (a QO might get you another year, but it also likely increases the cost to acquire them too).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm looking for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach, 1 of Balazovic, Duran or Enlow, and a Gordon or Blankenhorn "throw in". Alcantara has velocity, is young and controllable, why would I settle for less?

Is that too much to give up? Just how much potential does the FO and Johnson see in Alcantara?

You're right that Rosario probably isn't involved -- but that proposal seems high. Kirilloff and Balazovic/Duran could probably get Alcantra even if he has a bit of a breakthrough in 2020. Where he stands now, unless Miami is super-confident that he will break through, I think Kirilloff alone would be more than enough to get him, or Larnach plus a pitcher. (Not saying that's a good deal for the Twins at all!)

[MN_ExPat]

 

 Also NL pitching stats do not transfer to AL. They never seem to be as good. 

This is a bit of a stretch.   There are hurlers of the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch who do struggle some after a transition of leagues (although this is more of a personal thing rather than a AL/NL issue).     However,  if this were truly the case... the NL would never win the WS and would pitch their worst games of the year in inter-league play.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also NL pitching stats do not transfer to AL. They never seem to be as good.

Gerrit Cole and Mike Minor got better moving to the AL. Lance Lynn looked like a poster boy for a bad NL to AL transition, but now his career AL ERA+ is exactly the same as his NL mark. Quintana's been a little worse in the NL so far. Very small samples, but Bauer and Stroman were worse after going to the NL last year, and Greinke did just fine coming back to the AL.

 

I'm sure there are guys for whom the reverse is true, but I really doubt there is any kind of meaningful general pattern.

[Brandon]

Rosario for Price and 21 million from Redsox. Twins net out adding 17 million to payroll and get a good starting pitcher. May have enough in budget to sign Donaldson. so that makes the decision based on how much of a difference is there between Larnach or Killeroff and Rosario next season?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rosario for Price and 21 million from Redsox. Twins net out adding 17 million to payroll and get a good starting pitcher. May have enough in budget to sign Donaldson. so that makes the decision based on how much of a difference is there between Larnach or Killeroff and Rosario next season?

 

I was trying to think of how a trade like this would work. Year three is the bummer year of the deal.....

 

Twins could send Eddie to someone else, that team sends a prospect to Boston (not a highly ranked one) and MN gets Price. MN adds a lot to the budget, Boston cuts a lot and gets a 40 FV prospect or so, and another team gets Eddie.

 

If Price makes 20 or so starts a year and is good, that's a good trade. Big if.

[Brandon]

I was trying to think of how a trade like this would work. Year three is the bummer year of the deal.....

 

Twins could send Eddie to someone else, that team sends a prospect to Boston (not a highly ranked one) and MN gets Price. MN adds a lot to the budget, Boston cuts a lot and gets a 40 FV prospect or so, and another team gets Eddie.

 

If Price makes 20 or so starts a year and is good, that's a good trade. Big if.

I was thinking Boston could turn around and flip Rosario or another OF of their choosing for prospects.

[RaoulDuke]

Eddy is a very fun player to root for, lots of passion and energy but super streaky.  He is currently a pretty league average corner outfielder. he may have another level to realize yet if he ever learns patience, but I think the safe bet is he will be a pretty league average corner outfielder going forward. 

 

The Twins have an impending roster crunch coming in the outfield.  Kepler is a stud and signed to a great deal, Buxton is incredibly valuable if he can ever stay healthy, and both Kirilloff/ Larnach are close and could be ++ bats.  That makes Eddy pretty expendable.

 

The Marlins may be the perfect fit for him.  He knows Rowson and his system and can help the young guys adjust to it, plus they can bet on him realizing what upside he has.  

 

I would trade him straight up for Alcantara (preferably) or Smith.  A league average corner outfielder for a starter with #3 upside is good in my book.  If multiple teams are interested I would be open a similar return or a back of the bullpen guy for him as well.

[John Bonnes]

What about bullpen arms? That seems more reasonable.