Front Page: Buxton's Season Over, Placed on 60-day Injured List

[DocBauer]

Oof, so the red shirts gotta survive in this scenario?

 

Of course, I know that episode from just the one clip, lol!

[DocBauer]

 

"Ensigns Wade, Miller, and LaMarre, I know that none of you were expecting this. I'm sorry. I'm gonna have to ask you to grow up a little sooner than you expected. Warp five."

 

^{_{/ edit - I know, I know, LaMarre is 30, Miller is 27, and even Wade is no spring chicken anymore at 25. Humor me.}}

 

Good news: There is defense, speed and maybe a little contact and OB ability there.

 

Bad news: Questionable hitting at best and virtually zero power.

[FlauerPauer]

Should have traded him for Syndagaard. Plain and simple, this dude can't stay healthy. He absolutely needs to think about the big picture and realize that the highlight catch is great in the moment, but if he's only playing an average of 90 games a year, those catches that save a run one game end up costing the team way more runs in the long run. Hard to tell an athlete not to go balls-to-the-wall, but something needs to give. Twins have been fine without him. I expect them to continue to do so.

[ashbury]

For those interested, I did an old blog post regarding Wander Javier's shoulder surgery, which I suspect is quite similar to what Buxton is going through. Feel free to post with additional questions and I’ll do what I can.

All right, here's my question: given Javier's first season back, from surgery on the non-throwing shoulder, with rather poor results at the plate, are there grounds for optimism with Buxton for 2020?

[h2oface]

I feel really bad for the guy. I hope he has a speedy recovery, and takes to heart that playing smart can lead to a much better career than playing with uncompromising reckless abandon. He will have plenty of time to think about it, that's for sure.

[wabene]

I would love to see some data on what percent of players go from being injury prone youngsters to ever playing more than a fluke full season.

Kyle Rudolf

[Otto von Ballpark]

All right, here's my question: given Javier's first season back, from surgery on the non-throwing shoulder, with rather poor results at the plate, are there grounds for optimism with Buxton for 2020?

Javier missed a full season, though, and was simultaneously making his full season debut. I think there were development issues at play there, beyond the injury.

[MVP Nick Punto]

Man, Pineda/Buxton was the 1-2 punch I definitely didn't need. Wind right out of the sails in rapid fashion.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Sorry Byron. I wish you healing and a speedy and complete recovery.

[Riverbrian]

You slow him down... He isn't the same player. 

 

Yes... he has been injury prone but not all of the injuries were fearless reckless baseball injuries. 

 

 

[ewen21]

 

You slow him down... He isn't the same player. 

 

Yes... he has been injury prone but not all of the injuries were fearless reckless baseball injuries. 

Circumstances dictate actions.  If we are playing Wrigley you want him playing the same way?

He might die if he didn't learn to adapt.

 

I don't like the idea that he doesn't need to change.  What he is right now really isn't all that impactful.  He's played in about 40% of the games over the last two seasons. Playing the way he has resulted in 115 games in two seasons isn't the ticket.  Not for a guy who was 24 and 25 years old during those seasons.

Edited September 11, 2019 by ewen21

[Riverbrian]

 

Circumstances dictate actions.  If we are playing Wrigley you want him playing the same way?

He might die if he didn't learn to adapt.

 

I don't like the idea that he doesn't need to change.  What he is right now really isn't all that impactful.  He's played in about 40% of the games over the last two seasons. Playing the way he has resulted in 115 games in two seasons isn't the ticket.  Not for a guy who was 24 and 25 years old during those seasons.

 

It hasn't resulted in 115 games in two seasons. 

 

Migraines are not a product of his play... A foul ball of his toe is not a product of his play. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Oof brutal.... hopefully a strong recovery in the offseason and Buck hits the ground running in the spring

[Nine of twelve]

 

I would love to see some data on what percent of players go from being injury prone youngsters to ever playing more than a fluke full season.

See Molitor, Paul.

[Heezy1323]

 

All right, here's my question: given Javier's first season back, from surgery on the non-throwing shoulder, with rather poor results at the plate, are there grounds for optimism with Buxton for 2020?

 Obviously I don't have any specific knowledge of Buxton's case, so I really can't say with any certainty. But, I can give my interpretation of the freely available info.  Buxton's issue has been called subluxation, which typically means less significant structural damage as compared to a dislocation. As a result, there is typically not a need for as extensive surgery (when surgery is needed). Because there is usually less damage to the ligaments/labrum, fewer anchors and less tightening of the tissue around the shoulder would be expected. This (hopefully) means easier recovery of range of motion after surgery, which hopefully will lead to fewer problems with overall function and (hopefully) a slightly quicker recovery than more extensive surgery. 

 It can often take several months for recovery (I think I saw somewhere a 5-6 month timetable, which I would consider about right). Once 'recovered', there can still be some additional time needed to be 'back to normal'. I often specify to my patients that I would define 'recovered' differently from 'back to normal'. Sometimes those two are the same, and sometimes it takes more time to feel 'normal'. On occasion, the joint never feels back to 'normal', but many athletes can adapt to their 'new normal' and perform at a very high level. 

 So to answer your question, I would expect the surgery to have a more significant effect on Buxton's hitting than his fielding. The magnitude of that difference is basically impossible to predict with any reliability. Despite Buxton's many injury issues, I don't recall ever reading anything regarding him being less than diligent about his recovery, and I would expect this to be no different. My guess is that he will be a full go either at the beginning of spring training or soon thereafter- though obviously many things could happen between now and then that could have an effect on that. For Byron's and the Twins' sake, I hope everything goes smoothly and he is back to his speedy, joy-to-watch self. Dr. ElAttrache is certainly a well-respected surgeon within the orthopedic world, so he is in good hands. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It sure would be refreshing if this team could have nice things in October for once.

 

2006, it was Liriano, lost while he was potentially the best pitcher in baseball.

 

2010, it was Morneau, lost while he was on pace for a 10 (!!!!) WAR season.

 

2019, it's roughly a quarter of the team that is questionable with two of its most important pieces out for the season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It sure would be refreshing if this team could have nice things in October for once.

Well, there was 1987 and 1991. It could be worse!

[Aerodeliria]

 

Kinda miss Jaylin Davis right about now.

That reminds me; isn't there some kind of clause about receiving damaged goods? I mean obviously Dyson had this injury before SF 'dumped' him on the Twins. It's hard to believe that they had no knowledge of his shoulder problem.

[KirbyDome89]

 

This is one of those times that I remind myself that the Twins weren't supposed to contend this year, that to some degree we're playing with house money, and the window really opens in the next couple years.

 

Needless to say, it's not a great balm.

It's always next year right?

[Aerodeliria]

The problem is that the injuries, if they continue (I assume that they will), will start to have a negative effect on his play in a more permanent way. In other words, he may never actually fully recover to the point where he feels like his old self. As a similar example, Jacob Ellsbury was going to be the Yankees' dream outfielder. He could hit. He could run. He could play "D." Now, he can't hit like he should be and he really isn't doing that much running because most of the time he is dealing with the effects of all those nagging injuries. He can't play "D" because he can't stay in the lineup.

 

Is there a point where the Twins say, "Let's cut our losses?" (Lest the poison arrows rain down from the heavens, I'm only asking the question--not advocating. I just want to know others' opinions.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The problem is that the injuries, if they continue (I assume that they will), will start to have a negative effect on his play in a more permanent way. In other words, he may never actually fully recover to the point where he feels like his old self. As a similar example, Jacob Ellsbury was going to be the Yankees' dream outfielder. He could hit. He could run. He could play "D." Now, he can't hit like he should be and he really isn't doing that much running because most of the time he is dealing with the effects of all those nagging injuries. He can't play "D" because he can't stay in the lineup.

 

Is there a point where the Twins say, "Let's cut our losses?" (Lest the poison arrows rain down from the heavens, I'm only asking the question--not advocating. I just want to know others' opinions.)

Ellsbury is not a great talking point because he made his name on a single outlier year and wasn't great beyond that single season. His defensive metrics were mostly meh.

[yarnivek1972]

Ellsbury is not a great talking point because he made his name on a single outlier year and wasn't great beyond that single season. His defensive metrics were mostly meh.

So far Buxton’s career is based on three good months of play (August and September of 2017 and May of this year). Take those out and you’re talking about a guy with a career OPS+ in the low 70s.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ellsbury is not a great talking point because he made his name on a single outlier year and wasn't great beyond that single season. His defensive metrics were mostly meh.

Definitions of "great" can vary, but Ellsbury also posted 4.2 and 4.6 fWAR (3.0 and 5.7 bWAR) seasons outside of his career year.

 

Through his first 5 seasons, Ellsbury had a career mark of 9.7 UZR/150. Buxton's career mark is only 10.0 through his first 5 seasons. (I wonder if Ellsbury's defensive metrics are a little more volatile too, due to the Green Monster?)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2007&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4727&startdate=&enddate=

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That reminds me; isn't there some kind of clause about receiving damaged goods? I mean obviously Dyson had this injury before SF 'dumped' him on the Twins. It's hard to believe that they had no knowledge of his shoulder problem.

Is it that hard to believe a player might play through a health issue for a couple weeks before telling his team? Doesn't that happen all the time?

 

Especially if the issue is minor enough that it doesn't seem to affect his play -- Dyson's last 7 games for the Giants, dating from the point where he says it first started bothering him, he threw 7 shutout innings, with 2 hits, 1 walk, and 7 Ks.

 

I really doubt there was any malicious intent from the Giants here, and thus there shouldn't be any recourse for the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Definitions of "great" can vary, but Ellsbury also posted 4.2 and 4.6 fWAR (3.0 and 5.7 bWAR) seasons outside of his career year.

 

Through his first 5 seasons, Ellsbury had a career mark of 9.7 UZR/150. Buxton's career mark is only 10.0 through his first 5 seasons. (I wonder if Ellsbury's defensive metrics are a little more volatile too, due to the Green Monster?)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2007&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4727&startdate=&enddate=

I wasn’t clear. The original poster referenced Ellsbury’s time with the Yankees and he was a couple of years past that outlier year when he signed.

[stringer bell]

 

See Molitor, Paul.

Molitor's health improved when he became a DH. He was a great hitter and had a Hall of Fame career principally because of his hitting. Maybe Buxton can find durability, but I doubt it will be because he became a DH.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wasn’t clear. The original poster referenced Ellsbury’s time with the Yankees and he was a couple of years past that outlier year when he signed.

Well, it's possible that injuries had already affected his play, before the Yankees even signed him. That would mean the Yankees signing was even more of a mistake, than it was that injuries simply derailed him after the signing -- but the central point about cumulative injury effects could be similar. He had a couple serious injuries in Boston too (a whole season missed to broken ribs, plus another half season lost to a shoulder subluxation, just like Buxton!).

 

Although once you get to the Yankees part of his career, it's hard to separate from aging effects -- he was already 30 years old when he debuted for New York. But it's possible that the cumulative injuries, effectively sped up his baseball aging process a bit too.

[bighat]

Yesterday, Francisco Lindor became just the 2nd shortstop to hit 30 HR in 3 straight seasons.

 

Francisco Lindor is the same age as Buxton.

 

The sooner Twins fans take off their rose-colored glasses when looking at Buxton, the better. Let's face it: he's a nice defensive player with good speed. He's a below-average hitter (just look at the stats) and he can't stay on the field.

 

If we get a couple average years out of Byron Buxton the next couple seasons, we should be happy with that. He'll never live up to the hype, he'll never become the perennial All-Star we hoped he'd be. And we should have known all of that by 2018.

 

Buxton is my favorite Twin when he's out there! He's a great guy, fun to watch, and we all love the guy to death. But let's get real: He's not a core player. He's never going to be anything more than a complimentary piece to this Twins baseball team.

[In My La Z boy]

 

Yesterday, Francisco Lindor became just the 2nd shortstop to hit 30 HR in 3 straight seasons.

 

Francisco Lindor is the same age as Buxton.

 

The sooner Twins fans take off their rose-colored glasses when looking at Buxton, the better. Let's face it: he's a nice defensive player with good speed. He's a below-average hitter (just look at the stats) and he can't stay on the field.

 

If we get a couple average years out of Byron Buxton the next couple seasons, we should be happy with that. He'll never live up to the hype, he'll never become the perennial All-Star we hoped he'd be. And we should have known all of that by 2018.

 

Buxton is my favorite Twin when he's out there! He's a great guy, fun to watch, and we all love the guy to death. But let's get real: He's not a core player. He's never going to be anything more than a complimentary piece to this Twins baseball team.

What should we do then? Does he still have peak value this winter to another club? Based on your analysis - and I tend to agree, shouldn't we trade him? It would be a shame if this analysis comes true, and we never get the value we've been hoping for, either on the field for us, or in trade for top notch pitching. 

[jkcarew]

 

Molitor's health improved when he became a DH. He was a great hitter and had a Hall of Fame career principally because of his hitting. Maybe Buxton can find durability, but I doubt it will be because he became a DH.

Bingo. Molitor provided offense that easily justified being used as corner guy and/or a DH. It's possible, but certainly questionable, that Buxton would attain/sustain a sufficient level of offensive performance to keep him in the league (or at least make him valuable) in that scenario. The best bet for him is to 'simply' play as many games as a center-fielder as he can in the next handful of years. And therein lies the dilemma.

Edited September 11, 2019 by jkcarew