Article: MIN 4, BAL 1: Kepler Sets Tone, Gibby Brings It Home

[Tom Froemming]

It took all of one pitch for the Twins to continue their Baltimore home run barrage. Max Kepler went deep on the very first pitch of today’s game and Byron Buxton added his first homer of the year in the third. Kyle Gibson had his best start of the season and the Twins cruised to victory, sweeping the Orioles.Box Score

Gibson: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 66.7% strikes (70 of 105 pitches)

Home Runs: Kepler (7), Buxton (1)

Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2-for-4, 2B, HR)

WPA of +0.1: Gibson .270, Gonzalez .162, Kepler .125

WPA of -0.1: None

Download attachment: Win428.png

(chart via FanGraphs)

 

Gibson did a really nice job pitching with the lead. He had a shutout going until Chris Davis hit a solo homer with two outs in the seventh. Gibby set his season highs in pitches, innings and strike percentage today. The most strikes he had thrown in a start coming into today was 55. He threw 70 strikes this afternoon.

 

Gibson needed this. It now appears he’s put his slow start to the season behind him and is gaining momentum. With his second straight quality start, Gibby has lowered his ERA form 7.36 to 4.88 over his past two outings. He also hasn’t issued a walk for two straight starts now. It’s the first time since 2014 that Gibby hasn’t walked a batter in consecutive starts.

 

It’s perfect timing to get into a groove, too. The Twins have some stiffer competition coming up, so it’s really nice to see Kyle look like he’s pointed in the right direction. He’s obviously an important piece to this team maintaining success over the long haul in 2019.

 

Kepler’s leadoff homer got things going for the bats and Buxton added his first home run of the season to lead off the third inning. Kepler followed with a double and scored along with Eddie Rosario on a Marwin Gonzalez hit that somehow dropped into the Bermuda Triangle.

It was looking like the rout was on, but that was all the scoring the Twins would do. In a weird way it was somewhat of a relief, as the Randball’s Stu article from this Friday was really starting to hit home for a moment there.

 

Kepler now has seven home runs this season. The earliest he’d reached that mark previously was May 25. At the time that home run was hit, he had gone deep in four of his previous eight plate appearances. There’s being in the zone and there’s whatever Kepler is in right now. He’s on another level.

 

Postgame With Kepler

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen428.png

Next Three Games

Mon vs. HOU, 6:40 pm CT (Odorizzi-Verlander)

Tue vs. HOU, 6:40 pm CT (TBD-Cole)

Wed vs. HOU, 7:10 pm CT (TBD-McHugh)

 

Last Game

MIN 9, BAL 2: Quality from Berrios, Quantity from the Bats

 

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[Riverbrian]

Marwin needed that for BABIP improvement. 

 

Looks like a line drive in the box score. 

[MN_ExPat]

A hit is a hit in the end.   Doesn't matter how it happens

 

 

… Also major kudos to Gibby.   He really looked comfortable out there today.

[ashbury]

Marwin needed that for BABIP improvement. 

 

Looks like a line drive in the box score. 

I presume every other team is getting gift hits like that from the Orioles. We shouldn't toss ours back either.

[MABB1959]

It seems that they are feeding off each other and that is a good sign for the team as a whole. Also they know they have to play well to stay in the lineup. That has been missing for a long time. There have been 3-4 favorites always in the lineup regardless of how they played.

[Channing1964]

a sweep is a sweep. If we could have won half these games last year, Escobar would still be here.(I loved Escobar) The big test is coming in the next 7 games. I hope they're ready. C'mon Guys!! GET EM!

[jtkoupal]

The Twins are 16-9, but only 10-9 against teams not named the Orioles. If they can maintain their 10-9 pace against non-Orioles opponents, they would win 86 games, which could, maybe, be enough to at least grab the 2nd Wild Card

[John Bonnes]

On the one hand, Gibby's quality starts have both been against the Orioles. On the other, he's consistently getting a little deeper into each game, and that jives with the narrative about him likely needing a little extra time to get on track after that e coli disaster. I'm optimistic (which is not unusual, but still). 

[Nine of twelve]

 

The Twins are 16-9, but only 10-9 against teams not named the Orioles. If they can maintain their 10-9 pace against non-Orioles opponents, they would win 86 games, which could, maybe, be enough to at least grab the 2nd Wild Card

Well, as long as we're extrapolating...

We are undefeated against KC and Detroit and 2-1 against Cleveland. That projects to 51-6 against those three teams. Add in Baltimore and we're 57-6. Just play .500 ball against everyone else and we're 107-55.

[IndianaTwin]

 

The Twins are 16-9, but only 10-9 against teams not named the Orioles. If they can maintain their 10-9 pace against non-Orioles opponents, they would win 86 games, which could, maybe, be enough to at least grab the 2nd Wild Card

 

First, your math is wrong. Playing .526 ball over the remaining 137 games would get them to 88 wins.

 

Second, those 19 non-Orioles games include 11 against teams that are assumed to playoff contenders (Phillies, Mets, Cleveland, Houston) and only 5 against wimps (KC, Det). You can decide where to slot the Blue Jays. So outside the Orioles, they've actually played a pretty tough schedule in that 10-9 pace. 

 

Third, of their remaining games, 55 are against KC, Det, CWS, and Miami vs. about 31-34 against Bos, NYY, Cleveland, and whoever you want to consider their next toughest opponent. Of the teams they play one series against the rest of the way, Atlanta, Washington, and Houston are all at home. Compared to who they've played so far, that points to a schedule that they can play considerably better than .526 against.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

[wabene]

Gibby coming around is a huge relief. That bullpen looks rested might come in handy against the damn Astros. Talk to me in four days.

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, as long as we're extrapolating...

We are undefeated against KC and Detroit and 2-1 against Cleveland. That projects to 51-6 against those three teams. Add in Baltimore and we're 57-6. Just play .500 ball against everyone else and we're 107-55.

 

That's what I'm talking about!

 

I went ahead and reserved a room at the Marriott for October 22nd to October 30th. I was forced to reserve the entire 8 days because I wasn't sure if we would have 4 games at home or 3 games at home for the World Series and what dates. I'll ask Glunn if I can stay at his house for the other games in L.A. 

 

Now I hope that the front office starts preparing for the World Series as well by getting Nelson Cruz some reps in the outfield when they can't use the DH. 

 

 

 

 

[jimbo92107]

Great win, and the best thing was seeing Gibson nearing peak form. He was having a little trouble nipping the edges with his heater, and he did leave a few pitches right over the middle. Luckily, the Orioles hitters seemed to have very little idea what was coming next, so even when Gibson accidentally pipelined one, they were not expecting it, and they were biting on Gibby's ducking curve a lot. Credit should also go to Mitch Garver for calling a good game and keeping everything in front of him, tho his blocking skills were almost unneeded. 

[David HK]

Great win- this is what contending teams are supposed to do- make hay against the bottom-feeders (Toronto series excepted). 

 

Good for Marwin to get a couple of gift Rbi's, but man, that's the CF's ball all the way, and Smith came streaking in from left, and made him pull off his line. That's just bad baseball. 

 

I love Gary Thorne, the O's usual announcer, but man, he was so over the O's making mistakes like this. Love his call on Kep's opening HR... even though I kind of feel for the guy- he's a great baseball announcer.

 

Good work, Twinks! Now let's get at least a split out of the 'Stros!

[Platoon]

That's what I'm talking about!

 

I went ahead and reserved a room at the Marriott for October 22nd to October 30th. I was forced to reserve the entire 8 days because I wasn't sure if we would have 4 games at home or 3 games at home for the World Series and what dates. I'll ask Glunn if I can stay at his house for the other games in L.A. 

 

Now I hope that the front office starts preparing for the World Series as well by getting Nelson Cruz some reps in the outfield when they can't use the DH. 

If Glunn turns you down you can stay here. Of course I am assuming you have an as yet WS that is not spoken for?

[bighat]

Kepler's the type of guy who - when he gets on these hot streaks - makes you quickly forget all of his flaws. It's nice to see him coming around. Aside from Gonzalez, I think just about every Twin offensively is meeting or exceeding expectations. It's like best case scenario for just about everyone on offense.

 

I'll take the sweep. Very interested in watching this Astros series. Sure wish the Twins could have caught a break and maybe played the 'Stros later in the summer instead of back-to-back like this. That said, this crappy weather may work in our favor (although the Twins don't seem to like playing in it much either).

 

Jake the Astro Tamer is on the mound to start the series, looking forward to seeing if he can do it again!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

a sweep is a sweep. If we could have won half these games last year, Escobar would still be here.(I loved Escobar) 

Worth noting that even the 2018 Twins went 6-1 vs Baltimore, outscoring them 41-14. After losing 3-2 in extra innings on opening day, we won the next 6 matchups.

 

The 2019 Twins finish at 6-0 vs the Orioles, outscoring them 45-19.

 

KC was probably our biggest thorn in 2018, relative to expectations.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First, your math is wrong. Playing .526 ball over the remaining 137 games would get them to 88 wins.

 

Second, those 19 non-Orioles games include 11 against teams that are assumed to playoff contenders (Phillies, Mets, Cleveland, Houston) and only 5 against wimps (KC, Det). You can decide where to slot the Blue Jays. So outside the Orioles, they've actually played a pretty tough schedule in that 10-9 pace. 

 

Third, of their remaining games, 55 are against KC, Det, CWS, and Miami vs. about 31-34 against Bos, NYY, Cleveland, and whoever you want to consider their next toughest opponent. Of the teams they play one series against the rest of the way, Atlanta, Washington, and Houston are all at home. Compared to who they've played so far, that points to a schedule that they can play considerably better than .526 against.

This is all fair, but we probably could have said the same thing at times in 2018. We finished 6-1 vs BAL, and a respectable 15-16 vs CLE/HOU/TOR. (Didn't play PHI/NYM.) We had some disappointment vs KC in particular, but we finished .579 vs DET/CWS/KC for the season (.632 vs DET/CWS, .474 vs KC).

 

And of course, if KC/DET/CWS/BAL are really as bad as we think/hope, it may take over 90 wins to win the division or even a wild card spot again. Remember last year, the Rays finished with 90 wins and the Mariners with 89 -- and neither finished particularly close to a playoff spot!

 

Hopefully our 2019 squad is up to the task of getting it done this time.

[jmlease1]

 

On the one hand, Gibby's quality starts have both been against the Orioles. On the other, he's consistently getting a little deeper into each game, and that jives with the narrative about him likely needing a little extra time to get on track after that e coli disaster. I'm optimistic (which is not unusual, but still). 

 

I think this is right on Gibson. Most of his pitching woes early on makes sense in the context of his odd off-season; dropping that much weight that fast due to illness does a number on your stamina and it takes some time to bring that back up. He's looking more like the pitcher he was last season again and should be a guy we can count on the rest of the way.

 

Sweeping the O's is great. Yeah, they stink, but even a bad team will steal some games and it's nice that they weren't against us. (remember, they took 2 of 3 from the damn Yankees to open the season and split with the BoSox already, both on the road. Those games count too)

 

Marwin is still scuffling at the plate, but everyone else is doing a really nice job, not a lot of breaks in the lineup. Even Castro is doing well, showing patience paired with pop (he's got the same OPS+ as Astudillo right now)

 

Very happy to see Kepler heating up. Hopefully he can sustain it. he was super unlucky last year (BABIP of .236) and so far this year he's more inline with his (relatively low) career averages. The power potential has always been there, and it'll be interesting to see if he's really unlocked something or not. I do find it interesting that all of his HRs have been in exactly 2 series, and in both of those series he hit one out in every single game. That's a super-weird "that's baseball" stat, yo.

[prouster]

It’s worth noting that as of this morning, Baltimore’s position players have totaled more fWAR than Cleveland’s. The Orioles are one of the worst teams in recent memory, but they’re still Major Leaguers.

[IndianaTwin]

 

This is all fair, but we probably could have said the same thing at times in 2018. We finished 6-1 vs BAL, and a respectable 15-16 vs CLE/HOU/TOR. (Didn't play PHI/NYM.) We had some disappointment vs KC in particular, but we finished .579 vs DET/CWS/KC for the season (.632 vs DET/CWS, .474 vs KC).

 

And of course, if KC/DET/CWS/BAL are really as bad as we think/hope, it may take over 90 wins to win the division or even a wild card spot again. Remember last year, the Rays finished with 90 wins and the Mariners with 89 -- and neither finished particularly close to a playoff spot!

 

Hopefully our 2019 squad is up to the task of getting it done this time.

 

No doubt, and that's why they play the games. 

 

But it sure is nice to be playing the 26th game at 16-9 rather than at 9-16 like we were last year!

 

Ooh -- let's try this. We have 78 percent more wins through 25 games than we did a year ago. Extrapolate that to the 69 wins we had the rest of the season last year, and we end up 139-23. That's even better than Nine of twelve's math above, and I'm pretty sure we'd have home-field advantage, which would clear up RiverBrian's travel plans!

 

 

[h2oface]

I think I heard Gibson mutter "Bite Me, you Nibbler Nits" as he finished up yesterday. Could have just been my feed, but pretty sure......

 

Baltimore's offense is performing better than Toronto's, and Toronto swept this team. Nibble on that.

[USAFChief]

 

No doubt, and that's why they play the games. 

 

But it sure is nice to be playing the 26th game at 16-9 rather than at 9-16 like we were last year!

 

Ooh -- let's try this. We have 78 percent more wins through 25 games than we did a year ago. Extrapolate that to the 69 wins we had the rest of the season last year, and we end up 139-23. That's even better than Nine of twelve's math above, and I'm pretty sure we'd have home-field advantage, which would clear up RiverBrian's travel plans!

 

Trust me on this...you don't wanna be anywhere near RB's travel plans.

[Riverbrian]

 

 

Trust me on this...you don't wanna be anywhere near RB's travel plans.

 

Spot On! Spot On! 

[ashbury]

 

 

Trust me on this...you don't wanna be anywhere near RB's travel plans.

Wait, that's not the Antarctic Blue Super Sports Wagon with the C.B. and optional rally fun pack. Brian, isn't that what you told us you were getting? This looks like Metallic Pea.

[Riverbrian]

 

Wait, that's not the Antarctic Blue Super Sports Wagon with the C.B. and optional rally fun pack. Brian, isn't that what you told us you were getting? This looks like Metallic Pea.

 

"You may think you hate it now but wait until you drive it".