Where does the talent come from

gunnarthor · December 14, 2018

So I did back of the napkin math only here but looked at three recent WS teams to see how they constructed their teams. I only added up the value of players worth 1 WAR or more. There's significant issues with this, of course. WAR isn't a great measurement for relief pitchers or power only hitters. In season trades might have had some impact by either bringing or removing some WAR that was/wasn't counted. And we're not counting negative WAR from crappy players. But, whatever.

Boston had about 57 WAR from players. It broke down like this

Trades - 19.5 (34%)

FA - 14 (25%)

Drafted - 19.5 (34%)

intern signing - 3.8 (6%)

Houston also had about 57 WAR as well

Trades - 17.3 (30%)

FA - 6.1 (10%)

Draft - 20.3 (36%)

Intern sign - 10.9 (19%)

waivers - 2.2 (4%)

And Cubs had about 41 WAR (slackers)

Trades - 20.1 (49%)!

FA - 4.8 (11%)

draft - 12 (29%)

intern sign - 4 (10%)

Last year, using the same criteria, the Twins amassed 29 WAR

Trades - 6.3 (22%)

FA - 2.5 (9%)

draft - 15.7 (54%)

int. sign 4.3 (15%)

So, first, the Twins need to add WAR in all areas but nearly 16 WAR from drafted guys was better than I expected, frankly, with nothing from Buxton. International signings are actually right in line with the Cubs and Red Sox production wise and nothing from Sano there. Twins are way below on trades, both as % and actual production. That makes sense since the Twins didn't have a lot of top shelf items to move and their biggest trade (Span for Meyer) didn't work. Had they traded Perkins or a market developed for Dozier, who knows. Free agency as a % is actually in line but way below production of the WS teams, which makes sense as they have bigger payrolls.

On the plus side, Buxton and Sano combined for like -1 WAR so those two could help by not sucking next year.

PseudoSABR · December 14, 2018

The heart

bird · December 14, 2018

We can see from this that not getting enough back on trades is a killer. It's about having assets worth trading and trading more, but even more about avoiding those set-back trades such as Ramos/Capps, Hicks/Murphy, and Hardy/ turd emoji.

The international production is pretty good, especially considering they didn't break faith and bust through the agreed-upon allotment and Sano is still a non-factor. Now if we can just get Mr. Sixel to stop whining about Lewin Diaz.

The numbers point to what most us know is far too obvious. The FA opportunities abound here, Mr. Falvey. We want WAR! We want WAR!

Mike Sixel · December 15, 2018

We can see from this that not getting enough back on trades is a killer. It's about having assets worth trading and trading more, but even more about avoiding those set-back trades such as Ramos/Capps, Hicks/Murphy, and Hardy/ turd emoji.

The international production is pretty good, especially considering they didn't break faith and bust through the agreed-upon allotment and Sano is still a non-factor. Now if we can just get Mr. Sixel to stop whining about Lewin Diaz.

The numbers point to what most us know is far too obvious. The FA opportunities abound here, Mr. Falvey. We want WAR! We want WAR!

Go look at who else signed the year Diaz did, and recall that the Twins had the most money that year, and spent it on a DH.......and that's the last I'll say, I hope....PS, I said this on sethspeaks.net at the time...so not hindsight.

gunnarthor · December 15, 2018

One last thought on this was just looking at how much negative WAR was added by all players

Twins -8

Sox -5

Cubs -4.5

Astros -5.5

Again, not really shocking but the Twins had a lot more bad players playing and giving bad production. Obviously, negative WAR for SSS is very misleading but ... eh. Twins had to play bad players more than good teams did b/c they don't have the depth (for whatever reasons) that better teams did. Does anyone remember that David Hale threw 3 innings for us this year? He wasn't good for us.

TheLeviathan · December 15, 2018

The Twins lack of trading over the decade or so prior to our current FO certainly has had major consequences.

It's one of the reasons why this deadline was so refreshing.

Brock Beauchamp · December 15, 2018

One last thought on this was just looking at how much negative WAR was added by all players
Twins -8
Sox -5
Cubs -4.5
Astros -5.5

Again, not really shocking but the Twins had a lot more bad players playing and giving bad production. Obviously, negative WAR for SSS is very misleading but ... eh. Twins had to play bad players more than good teams did b/c they don't have the depth (for whatever reasons) that better teams did. Does anyone remember that David Hale threw 3 innings for us this year? He wasn't good for us.

And people complain because the Twins - a bad/mediocre team - didn't "go for it" and improve.

Depth is sooooo important in today's game and depth doesn't come in a single year. You can't bank your fourth/fifth starter on the likes of Gonsalves and you can't bank your backup positional duties on... well, whatever.

You need players. So many players that it looks like you can't fit them all onto your roster... because half of those players will fail. And then you need another player to fill that role.

It's long been my opinion that there's no such thing as a 40-man roster crunch.

Richie the Rally Goat · December 15, 2018

And people complain because the Twins - a bad/mediocre team - didn't "go for it" and improve.

Depth is sooooo important in today's game and depth doesn't come in a single year. You can't bank your fourth/fifth starter on the likes of Gonsalves and you can't bank your backup positional duties on... well, whatever.

You need players. So many players that it looks like you can't fit them all onto your roster... because half of those players will fail. And then you need another player to fill that role.

It's long been my opinion that there's no such thing as a 40-man roster crunch.

it does put into perspective some of the annual spring training 25th man on the roster, swing starter debates, doesn’t it.

It’s not just those but 26-40 including the 6th-10th starters that can make or break a season

Badsmerf · December 15, 2018

The biggest kicker to me about Twins trades, is they do not target high caliber talent. Trades for the likes of Cliff Lee back in the competitive era, are what put some teams into position to contend. The Twins lack of aggression to go get high end guys in trades, and to a large extent free agency, limit their upside.

Teams like Boston and the Cubs have the money, executive talent, and passionate fanbase that push them to be better. I have my doubts this ownership will win a world series in my lifetime.

bird · December 15, 2018

Go look at who else signed the year Diaz did, and recall that the Twins had the most money that year, and spent it on a DH.......and that's the last I'll say, I hope....PS, I said this on sethspeaks.net at the time...so not hindsight.

I remember, Mike. You said it back then, and you've said it hundreds of times since. Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz Diaz...

Maybe they missed on the guy. He was #10 on BA's rankings at the time. He was an athletic big-bodied 16 year old. He was considered to be a prized prospect in the system all the way up until his dismal 2018. This signing is not a criminal act. In fact, it doesn't inform us of a single thing, really.

Polanco Polanco Polanco Polanco Polanco Polanco Polanco....

BTW, BA still listed Lewin Diaz as among "players to watch" during THIS year's Rule 5, but said the positive scuttlebutt on him at LAST year's winter meetings was clearly absent. Partly because he was injure for two months, but mainly because he's never converted his power potential into results.

Which prospects from the 2013 international draft are you thinking they should have signed instead? Last time I looked, the best of the group was probably Victor Robles, who signed for $250k. SO perhaps the Twins should have spent less, not more? It's a crap shoot and a numbers game, and sometimes you get lucky because you bought a ticket.

mikelink45 · December 15, 2018

We seemed to have similar ideas so take a look at my newest blog which breaks down hitter WAR, all I can say is if we think the WAR was bad before - next year is starting out in a bigger hole:

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11299-%7B%3F%7D/

Thanks for keeping this discussion going.

old nurse · December 15, 2018

Players traded for as prospects, versus players traded for as established players is also a missing element

When dissing on Twins trades there are 2 things people seem to forget. 1, there have been different people in the FO. 2. Bill Smith was not a good trader. Had ne made a prospects for talent trade the team would be worse off now.

Mike Sixel · December 15, 2018

And people complain because the Twins - a bad/mediocre team - didn't "go for it" and improve.

Depth is sooooo important in today's game and depth doesn't come in a single year. You can't bank your fourth/fifth starter on the likes of Gonsalves and you can't bank your backup positional duties on... well, whatever.

You need players. So many players that it looks like you can't fit them all onto your roster... because half of those players will fail. And then you need another player to fill that role.

It's long been my opinion that there's no such thing as a 40-man roster crunch.

Or, we complain because they sign short term bargains, other than Castro.

Also, not trading or signing free agents means you play lots of bad players, which no one ever acknowledges when they say don't sign free agents, because the alternative is playing lots of bad players from the minors.

DrNeau · December 15, 2018

So I did back of the napkin math only here but looked at three recent WS teams to see how they constructed their teams. I only added up the value of players worth 1 WAR or more. There's significant issues with this, of course. WAR isn't a great measurement for relief pitchers or power only hitters. In season trades might have had some impact by either bringing or removing some WAR that was/wasn't counted. And we're not counting negative WAR from crappy players. But, whatever.

Boston had about 57 WAR from players. It broke down like this
Trades - 19.5 (34%)
FA - 14 (25%)
Drafted - 19.5 (34%)
intern signing - 3.8 (6%)

Houston also had about 57 WAR as well
Trades - 17.3 (30%)
FA - 6.1 (10%)
Draft - 20.3 (36%)
Intern sign - 10.9 (19%)
waivers - 2.2 (4%)

And Cubs had about 41 WAR (slackers)
Trades - 20.1 (49%)!
FA - 4.8 (11%)
draft - 12 (29%)
intern sign - 4 (10%)

Last year, using the same criteria, the Twins amassed 29 WAR
Trades - 6.3 (22%)
FA - 2.5 (9%)
draft - 15.7 (54%)
int. sign 4.3 (15%)

So, first, the Twins need to add WAR in all areas but nearly 16 WAR from drafted guys was better than I expected, frankly, with nothing from Buxton. International signings are actually right in line with the Cubs and Red Sox production wise and nothing from Sano there. Twins are way below on trades, both as % and actual production. That makes sense since the Twins didn't have a lot of top shelf items to move and their biggest trade (Span for Meyer) didn't work. Had they traded Perkins or a market developed for Dozier, who knows. Free agency as a % is actually in line but way below production of the WS teams, which makes sense as they have bigger payrolls.

On the plus side, Buxton and Sano combined for like -1 WAR so those two could help by not sucking next year.

Never saw WAR broken down by team and acquisition type before. Super interesting post.

howieramone2 · December 15, 2018

The Twins lack of trading over the decade or so prior to our current FO certainly has had major consequences.

It's one of the reasons why this deadline was so refreshing.

To get Meyer and May they traded all they had and still lost both trades. When TR came aboard there was nothing in the farm system and nothing on the team. TR didn't immediately start the rebuild just to piss off the folks here on TD.

howieramone2 · December 15, 2018

The biggest kicker to me about Twins trades, is they do not target high caliber talent. Trades for the likes of Cliff Lee back in the competitive era, are what put some teams into position to contend. The Twins lack of aggression to go get high end guys in trades, and to a large extent free agency, limit their upside.

Teams like Boston and the Cubs have the money, executive talent, and passionate fanbase that push them to be better. I have my doubts this ownership will win a world series in my lifetime.

It's certainly a safe bet the Indians and White Sox won't win a World Series in your lifetime. Last I heard the Red Sox are the poster child for fire sales. Look for Theo to move to New York or California in the not too distant future.

caninatl04 · December 15, 2018

Thank you for doing the leg work on this.

Yes, the WARs from trades was low in 2018, but how many of the current Top 30 prospects in th Twins’ system are the result of trades?

Let’s hope that future WARS will reflect these investments

howieramone2 · December 15, 2018

Or, we complain because they sign short term bargains, other than Castro.

Also, not trading or signing free agents means you play lots of bad players, which no one ever acknowledges when they say don't sign free agents, because the alternative is playing lots of bad players from the minors.

I thought it was common knowledge it's hard to lose on a 1 year contract. You like the Cano, Greinke, and Darvish deals do you? They signed 4 free agents last season and will do the same this year.

ken · December 15, 2018

I thought it was common knowledge it's hard to lose on a 1 year contract. You like the Cano, Greinke, and Darvish deals do you? They signed 4 free agents last season and will do the same this year.

If it's use to supplement the roster it's good. If it's used on the whole roster it not smart.

Nine of twelve · December 15, 2018

To get Meyer and May they traded all they had and still lost both trades. When TR came aboard there was nothing in the farm system and nothing on the team. TR didn't immediately start the rebuild just to piss off the folks here on TD.

The jury is still out on the May trade. Let's see how he does during the next few years. Revere is a one-dimensional player, albeit a very good dimension. No power. No arm. On a good team he's a fourth outfielder. Having him on The Twins' major league roster for the last six years would have made very little difference in the team's overall performance.

Brandon · December 15, 2018

The biggest kicker to me about Twins trades, is they do not target high caliber talent. Trades for the likes of Cliff Lee back in the competitive era, are what put some teams into position to contend. The Twins lack of aggression to go get high end guys in trades, and to a large extent free agency, limit their upside.

Teams like Boston and the Cubs have the money, executive talent, and passionate fanbase that push them to be better. I have my doubts this ownership will win a world series in my lifetime.

The reason the Twins didn't do this back when they were competitive in the early 2000's is because the Twins were built with a lot of average talent. The upgrade to higher talent that was available in trade wasn't always that big of an upgrade and the cost to acquire was expensive. I don't remember too many potential opportunities where the upgrade made a huge difference and the cost was high.

bird · December 15, 2018

I'm not sure it makes too much sense to get bogged down in the "why's" of gunarthor's data. Intuitively, does it not make sense to extract WAR from other sources when your home-grown WAR isn't quite adequate? Intuitively, does it not make sense to win the WAR war when you trade? Intuitively does it not make sense to buy WAR in FA, even when it's more expensive than other WAR, if it results in enough cumulative WAR to win? Intuitively, since about a third of all WAR is generated from foreign-born players, does it not make sense to be adept as an international player?

Okay, IM not so humble O, they get historically good marks for talent identification and acquisition via domestic and foreign channels, and just need to improve the physical and skill development side of things a bit. They get fairly bad grades historically regarding their horse-swapping, but I see somewhat definitive signs of improvement under Falvey, especially in that he's active and less risk-averse than Ryan was. Unlike some who think the reported interest and participation in the bidding for Ohtani and Darvish was all a big ruse, I think the behavior was legit and telling. I think Jim Pohlad, while not a spendthrift, is a very different creature than his dad was and will consider larger commitments when presented to his board. I think Falvey and company wants as much WAR to be derived from home-grown talent as possible, as do most of the very successful franchises, including the post-Steinbrenner Yanks. But I think we'll see very purposeful FA moves and an increase in opportunistic decisions of every type under this FO. It's early.

tvagle · December 15, 2018

Ok...so I bit on the Lewin Diaz rabbit hole and it led me down several other totally useless and utterly depressing discoveries:

MLB Pipeline 2013 Prospects page

International Players from 2013

1) Eloy Jimenez

3) Gleyber Torres

6) Rafael Devers

10) DIAZ

Always a crapshoot on who your scout knows or pays or promises...but seems the Twins may have missed an opportunity here

Draft Prospects (Stewart at #4)

4) Clint Frazier

5) Austin Meadows

6) Colin Moran

7) Stewart

19) JP Crawford

Other than 24) Aaron Judge...the rest are at best prospects just about to reach the Show

Top 10 Prospects by Position

SS is LOADED but no Twins (this to be expected as a Twin's fan...SS has been a longstanding Black Hole)

1) Lindor

2) Bogaerts

3) Correa

4) Baez

5) Russell

6) Hanson (wait..what...who the heck is Allen Hanson?)

8) Seager, Corey

3B - The good old Potential Tag...if only

1) Sano

2) Bryant

2B - Must be old-school new-wave thinking to move these guys to the outfield

2) Rosario

10 Betts

1B - Surprises around every click

2) C.J. Cron

4) Matt Olson

10) Max Muncy

OF - Potential If Only part 2

1) Buxton

2) Taveras RIP

3) Castelanos

5) Billy "White Shoes" Hamilton

7) Springer

9) JBJ

TWINS TOP 20 (this is the current core)

1) Buxton

2) Sano

3) Meyer

4) Stewart

5) Rosario

6) Berrios

7) May

8) Kepler

9) Polanco

17) Gonslaves

(only players not to reach the Show)

10) Ryan Eades

13) Travis Harrison

14) Miguel Sulbaran

15) Mason Melotakis

TOP 100 Prospects

1) Buxton

3) Sano

39) Odorizzi (just ahead of Allen Hanson)

61) Stewart

63) Rosario

68) Austin, Tyler

77) Berrios

Current Twins on other Teams Top 20

BALT 5) Schoop

LAA 2) Cron

LAD 5) Magill

SF 19) Mejia

So with 7 current players ranked in the 2013 top 100 prospects...9 of their 2013 Top 20 players with MLB Experience...4 other Teams top 20 prospects

It's clear to see if I were prospecting on Twins wins with all this talent, they are a shoe in for 90 wins

Or, maybe it's a clear indication that one does not win by prospects alone...help me get out of this rabbit hole...tell me there's hope and the light at the end of the tunnel isn't from a White Sox

gunnarthor · December 15, 2018

I think one of my thoughts on this was that the Twins have done a decent job in acquiring talent cheaply. International signings - Polanco and Kepler made the bulk of the WAR last year - look pretty good. Besides those two, the Twins can reasonably expect better results from guys like Sano and Romero this season as well. And the draft was strong, too. Higher than the Cubs and a good season from Buxton probably would have made them even with the Sox and Astros. So those are both pretty good. For all the complaints about draft/development, things seem workable there.

The problem seems to be that the amateur talent is the only streams that are working well. We didn't see anything from waivers or rule v picks. Ryan made a bucket load of strong trades in the late 90s and 2000s that kept the team competitive for a decade. We don't have those trades (yet). FA has never been a huge part of the Twins foundation so they need to make better trades.

The third thing is less specific but the Twins high-end talent hasn't yet shown consistent ability to play at a high-end level. Since the 2011 season, the Twins have only had a 5 WAR season for a player 4x - twice by Dozier and once each from Mauer and Buxton. (Again, only using bWAR. fWAR would probably have added Hughes and maybe others. Also, is there a real difference between 4.9 and 5.2? Probably not). I think that is more on the ML staff than the development staff.

TheLeviathan · December 15, 2018

To get Meyer and May they traded all they had and still lost both trades. When TR came aboard there was nothing in the farm system and nothing on the team. TR didn't immediately start the rebuild just to piss off the folks here on TD.

TR is the reason the farm system was bare. Unless you want a cupboard full of failed relief-to-starter projects.

And I'm well aware of your schtick, I know your response will be to die on the hill for TR. But the fact is, while he did some things really well, trading was not among them. He was neither good at it or active at it. (The former may be the reason for the latter)

gunnarthor · December 16, 2018

TR is the reason the farm system was bare. Unless you want a cupboard full of failed relief-to-starter projects.

And I'm well aware of your schtick, I know your response will be to die on the hill for TR. But the fact is, while he did some things really well, trading was not among them. He was neither good at it or active at it. (The former may be the reason for the latter)

I won't answer for Howie but your schtick gets old too. The farm system wasn't bare when the new guys took over - they inherited a playoff team full of former top 100 prospects and a top 10 farm system per Klaw. Ryan's trades were the main reason the Twins were able to stay competitive for a decade. We have yet to see the new FO make any trade even as good as Liriano for Escobar. Let alone trades that would bring us guys like Santana, Sivla, Milton, Bartlett, Punto, Liriano, Castillo, Nathan, Boof, Lohse or even Lew Ford. His second run at GM, the trades didn't go as well but Span for Meyer was the type of trade they needed to make. I don't have much faith in May but he could still turn that trade around as well.

ashbury · December 16, 2018

And I'm well aware of your schtick,

I won't answer for Howie but your schtick gets old too.

Moderator's note: Guys. You know the TD moderation team's schtick, as well. This is going too personal. 'Nuff said.

Doomtints · December 16, 2018

So I did back of the napkin math only here but looked at three recent WS teams to see how they constructed their teams. I only added up the value of players worth 1 WAR or more. There's significant issues with this, of course. WAR isn't a great measurement for relief pitchers or power only hitters. In season trades might have had some impact by either bringing or removing some WAR that was/wasn't counted. And we're not counting negative WAR from crappy players. But, whatever.

Boston had about 57 WAR from players. It broke down like this
Trades - 19.5 (34%)
FA - 14 (25%)
Drafted - 19.5 (34%)
intern signing - 3.8 (6%)

Houston also had about 57 WAR as well
Trades - 17.3 (30%)
FA - 6.1 (10%)
Draft - 20.3 (36%)
Intern sign - 10.9 (19%)
waivers - 2.2 (4%)

And Cubs had about 41 WAR (slackers)
Trades - 20.1 (49%)!
FA - 4.8 (11%)
draft - 12 (29%)
intern sign - 4 (10%)

Last year, using the same criteria, the Twins amassed 29 WAR
Trades - 6.3 (22%)
FA - 2.5 (9%)
draft - 15.7 (54%)
int. sign 4.3 (15%)

So, first, the Twins need to add WAR in all areas but nearly 16 WAR from drafted guys was better than I expected, frankly, with nothing from Buxton. International signings are actually right in line with the Cubs and Red Sox production wise and nothing from Sano there. Twins are way below on trades, both as % and actual production. That makes sense since the Twins didn't have a lot of top shelf items to move and their biggest trade (Span for Meyer) didn't work. Had they traded Perkins or a market developed for Dozier, who knows. Free agency as a % is actually in line but way below production of the WS teams, which makes sense as they have bigger payrolls.

On the plus side, Buxton and Sano combined for like -1 WAR so those two could help by not sucking next year.

This was a good analysis until you threw in the percentages.

Houston and Boston have lower percentages in the draft bucket, but higher WAR in the same bucket. They're both better at drafting players.

Richie the Rally Goat · December 16, 2018

This was a good analysis until you threw in the percentages.

Houston and Boston have lower percentages in the draft bucket, but higher WAR in the same bucket. They're both better at drafting players.

the other part of trades is how much WAR did they trade away in order to acquire the returned WAR? I bet the majority of the value traded away came out of the draft bucket.

Seth Stohs · December 16, 2018

Go look at who else signed the year Diaz did, and recall that the Twins had the most money that year, and spent it on a DH.......and that's the last I'll say, I hope....PS, I said this on sethspeaks.net at the time...so not hindsight.

We were already at Twins Daily when they signed Diaz... not that that has anything to do with your point....

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