Reviewing Minnesota’s Post-Hype Prospects 2026 Performance

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Reese Strickland - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Entering the 2026 season, I ranked the Minnesota Twins’ post-hype prospects based on several factors. The list considered each player’s previous prospect pedigree, where they stood in their development, their expected role with the Twins, their potential impact on this year’s roster, and how important they could be to the organization’s long-term plans.

Now, as the 2026 season winds to a close, it is becoming increasingly clear that this group does not look quite as much like the foundation of the Twins’ next competitive team. Some players have taken meaningful steps forward, while others have seen their stock fall considerably.

With that in mind, here is a reranking of the eight players featured in the preseason article.

8. SP Simeon Woods Richardson

Preseason Rank: 6

Woods Richardson’s 2026 season could hardly have gone worse. The right-hander pitched poorly enough to finish with -1.3 rWAR, eventually getting dropped from the Twins’ 40-man roster and claimed off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays. A player who once looked like one of Minnesota’s more dependable young starting pitchers is now with his third organization of the season.

There was plenty of reason to believe Woods Richardson could settle into the middle of Minnesota’s rotation entering the season. Instead, everything fell apart in 2026. That makes him an easy choice for the bottom of this list.

7. OF Matt Wallner

Preseason Rank: 2

Wallner was one of the biggest disappointments among the group. After entering the season with the potential to become a legitimate 30-home-run threat, Wallner stumbled out of the gate. In 34 games, he posted -1.3 rWAR and a 55 OPS+. The Twins eventually demoted him to Triple-A in the middle of May.

Wallner has gotten much closer to that 30-homer mark as the season progressed, but most of that production has come in a St. Paul Saints uniform. At this point, it is difficult to see where Wallner fits into Minnesota’s long-term plans. His power remains intriguing, but the overall offensive profile and defensive limitations have made it increasingly difficult for the Twins to give him a consistent role.

6. OF Trevor Larnach

Preseason Rank: 8

Larnach moves up the rankings, but there is an important caveat. This is largely a product of the players above him falling out of favor rather than Larnach suddenly establishing himself as a cornerstone player.

He has posted a 116 OPS+ this season, which is better than his 105 OPS+ for his career. That is certainly respectable production, but there still needs to be more from a left-handed corner outfielder who is protected from facing left-handed pitching and provides little defensive value. The Twins have plenty of decisions to make with their outfield this winter, and it is difficult to see Larnach having a clear path to significant playing time in 2027.

5. OF Austin Martin

Preseason Rank: 7

Martin also climbs the rankings, although much like Larnach, the move has more to do with what happened to the players around him. In 112 games, Martin has posted a 93 OPS+. His second half has been particularly underwhelming, as he is hitting .190/.314/.328 (.642) with six extra-base hits in 28 games.

There is at least one intriguing piece of the puzzle. Martin has posted a .799 OPS against left-handed pitching, giving the Twins a potential platoon option. That could be enough to earn him a backup outfield role next season. It is not the outcome many envisioned when Martin arrived in Minnesota, but it would at least give him a path to remaining on the roster.

4. IF Royce Lewis

Preseason Rank: 1

I bought into the Royce Lewis hype. The Twins spent the winter talking up Lewis, and I naively bought into the messaging. Unfortunately, his performance early in the season did little to justify that optimism. Like Wallner, Lewis struggled enough that Minnesota eventually sent him to Triple-A. He responded by going on a tear in St. Paul, earning his way back to the big leagues.

The results since his return have been better, but not nearly good enough for the role the Twins need him to fill. In 82 games since returning, Lewis is hitting .254/.311/.431 (.742). That might be acceptable for some positions, but it is not enough production from a first baseman.

The Twins will have a significant decision to make with Lewis this winter. His talent is becoming less evident, but the organization needs to determine whether there is enough remaining upside to justify giving him another opportunity.

3. SP Zebby Matthews

Preseason Rank: 3

Matthews is probably the most interesting player on this list heading into the offseason. There was a stretch in August when he looked like one of the best young pitchers in the American League. He posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to a .633 OPS.

There was a legitimate argument for Matthews to win the American League’s Pitcher of the Month award. He went 5-0 during August, and the Twins won just 10 games during the entire month.

That is a remarkable run for a young pitcher trying to establish himself. Matthews has run out of gas in September, much like the rest of Minnesota’s roster. Still, August demonstrated why the Twins remain interested in his future. The biggest question heading into the offseason could be whether Matthews belongs in the rotation or whether his skill set would be better utilized in the bullpen.

2. IF Brooks Lee

Preseason Rank: 4

Many fans will remember Lee’s first half for his struggles at shortstop. He finished with -6 Outs Above Average at the position, creating plenty of questions about where he would ultimately fit defensively.

The second half of the equation has been much more encouraging. Lee has hit 20-plus home runs for the first time in his career, and his move to third base has been a revelation. He has posted 5 OAA at the hot corner, giving Minnesota a much clearer picture of where he belongs defensively.

Offensively, Lee remains one of the streakier hitters in the organization. His splits as a switch-hitter are particularly interesting, as he has struggled considerably more from the right side. His OPS from that side is 212 points lower.

Still, there is enough here to believe Lee has a future with the Twins. Assuming nothing changes this winter, it looks like Lee will be penciled into the starting third-base job for 2027.

1. SP Taj Bradley

Preseason Rank: 5

Bradley has been the biggest surprise of this group. He is having a tremendous season and should win the Twins’ Pitcher of the Year award. Through 29 starts, Bradley has posted a 3.81 ERA, 110 ERA+, 27.3 K% and 10.3 BB%. There were flashes of this pitcher during his time with Tampa Bay, but Bradley never consistently put everything together with the Rays.

He has done that in Minnesota. Bradley has accumulated 3.8 rWAR for the Twins this season, while Griffin Jax has posted -0.1 rWAR with Tampa Bay. Obviously, there is plenty of time remaining on both players’ careers, but at this point, the Twins are the clear winners of that trade.

More importantly, Bradley has established himself as one of the most important pieces of Minnesota’s pitching staff moving forward. That makes him the clear No. 1 on this year’s post-hype prospect rankings.

The biggest takeaway from this reranking is just how much the picture has changed in one season. Lewis went from No. 1 to No. 4. Wallner dropped from No. 2 to No. 7. Meanwhile, Bradley jumped from No. 5 all the way to No. 1, while Lee and Matthews have both strengthened their cases to remain part of the organization’s future.

That is ultimately what makes post-hype prospects so fascinating. Their prospect status may have faded, but they still have an opportunity to rewrite the story once they reach the major leagues. For some members of this group, 2026 was the year they finally established themselves. For others, it may have been the season that ended their time as legitimate pieces of the Twins’ future.

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How do you view the re-rankings? How would you rank this group? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Blyleven2011]

Prospect hype , I try not to listen to it , some have a 10 plus year career and some just fade away …

[rv78]

#4 through #7 should follow #8 out the door. Anything less and the FO is NOT doing their job.

[Fatbat]

Royce will likely get one last look but 5-7 have been replaced by high upside rookies. A nice crop of more rookies in ‘27&’28 will build a much deeper and better team. Crazy to think the Erod Culpepper and Jenkins are all going to chase the ‘27 ROY! 

[D.C Twins]

40 minutes ago, rv78 said:

#4 through #7 should follow #8 out the door. Anything less and the FO is NOT doing their job.

Yep... time to finish the inevitable reset that they resisted at the deadline

[LastOnePicked]

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Crazy to think the Erod Culpepper and Jenkins are all going to chase the ‘27 ROY! 

According to Gleeman, Culpepper will be ineligible for ROY consideration next season. We'll see about Jenkins and ERod. I think they'll be good, but not ROY candidates.

[LastOnePicked]

At the start of the season, I really still had hope for Martin and Lewis. Sadly, if they're going to click, it'll probably be somewhere else at this point.

But if they do click somewhere else, the Twins really need to start some deep soul-searching about why it's not happening here for top prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

At the start of the season, I really still had hope for Martin and Lewis. Sadly, if they're going to click, it'll probably be somewhere else at this point.

But if they do click somewhere else, the Twins really need to start some deep soul-searching about why it's not happening here for top prospects.

I'm still interested in Martin.  Ship has sailed on Lewis.

[Linus]

Assuming the Twins don’t find a big bat to DH, I would bring Wallner back and give him a chance to be the DH. If he struggles you simply release him at any time. A bit of a long shot but the reward would be substantial. 

[Eris]

23 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

According to Gleeman, Culpepper will be ineligible for ROY consideration next season.

I am not sure this is correct. 
MLB rules

<=130 at bats, <=45 days on active roster, IL doesn’t count (unlike service time calculations). 

Culpepper  120 PA (from FanGraphs), BR indicates 109 AB, called up Aug 7, IL on Sept 16.  This is 41 days  

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility