Is There Still a Future for Marco Raya in Minnesota?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

At one point in time, it looked like Twins pitching prospect Marco Raya was on his way to becoming a key piece of the organization’s pitching staff. After being selected in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of high school, he had to wait a little longer than expected to begin his professional career. A shoulder strain wiped out his entire 2021 season, but he came back in 2022 and showed why the Twins had been so intrigued by him.

Raya posted a 3.05 ERA with 76 strikeouts over 65 innings in Low-A that season, giving him a strong foundation to build on. He followed that with another impressive year at High-A in 2023, which earned him a promotion to Double-A at just 20 years old. Just one year later, he was knocking on the door of Triple-A. He only made one start at that level in 2024, but it was an impressive one: he tossed five scoreless innings. At that point, it felt like the Twins had found a potential frontline starter who was flying through the organization.

But from there, things started to unravel. Raya has been pretty much stuck in St. Paul for the last couple of years, and some of the issues that have plagued him have become increasingly difficult to overlook. Too many barrels have hurt him, and the Twins have now transitioned him into a relief role. Suddenly, the frontline starter upside that once made Raya one of the more intriguing arms in the system seems to have disappeared. But that doesn’t necessarily mean his future with the Twins has disappeared with it.

Despite a couple of rough years in St. Paul, Raya finally made his major-league debut in 2026. He only appeared in three games before being optioned back to Triple-A, but he allowed just two earned runs over six innings. Obviously, six innings is nowhere near enough to draw any definitive conclusions. The underlying numbers from such a small sample need to be taken with a grain of salt, but there were still some encouraging signs. His secondary pitches generated whiffs; he did a good job limiting hard contact, and most importantly, the overall arsenal looked like something that can work at the major-league level.

His fastball has been sitting around 96 miles per hour in St. Paul, giving him a solid foundation to build the rest of his arsenal around. Both his sweeper and curveball have strong movement profiles, and the sweeper generated plenty of whiffs during his brief time in the majors. The increased usage of that pitch has also been one of the more interesting developments for Raya this season. He has leaned on the sweeper substantially more than he did before, and he's also increased his usage of the changeup. That change is a little firmer than normal, coming in around 90 MPH, but it generates plenty of deception and plays well off his fastball.

That combination could give Raya a pretty interesting mix in a bullpen role. He also has a cutter, although he really isn’t throwing it much anymore. In reality, the pitch looks more like a hard slider than a traditional cutter, which could explain why it has fallen out of his mix. Still, it could be a usable offering if the Twins decide they want him to bring it back more often.

The biggest question is whether Raya can finally start turning all of that stuff into consistent results. His overall numbers at Triple-A this season are far from outstanding, and the home run problem in particular has continued to follow him. One out of every four hits he's allowed this year has left the ballpark, which has hurt his overall stat line and dents any confidence that he could be a valuable high-leverage arm. At the same time, there are some reasons to believe he's made progress. Compared to 2025, his walk and strikeout rates have both improved substantially. If he can clean up the long balls, there's still a world where he carves out a meaningful role in the Twins’ bullpen.

It may not be the role anyone envisioned when he was flying through the organization as a 20-year-old. There was a point when it looked like Raya could eventually become a frontline starter, and that path has clearly taken a major turn. But a change in role doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the road. He's still only 24, and the Twins have already seen enough from his arsenal to know that there's something to work with. A 96-MPH fastball, a whiff-heavy sweeper and a changeup with plenty of movement give him the ingredients of a legitimate major-league pitcher. Now, it’s about finding the right way to put everything together.

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[PuckettPond]

Culpepper down Ross up. Raya's future is in the bull pen. I see his future very bright in a Twins uniform.

[FlyingFinn]

The Twins were very careful with Raya throughout his minor league career. They were successful in getting him healthy to get to the majors but not a high level to stay in MLB (yet, and it appears so for the future IMO). Not sure if that says the process was right or wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea why he's not in the bullpen right now over veterans that aren't all that good. 

[nicksaviking]

I think Raya still has a bright future. I think the problem with the development was that the Twins finally identified that he was destined for relief, however, they were still having him work as a multi inning reliever until his July demotion.

I get that going from starter, to long relief, to late relief SEEMS like the natural progression, but it shouldn't be, if you have a guy you want to eventually be in late relief, skip the long relief part all together. 

Long-men are your expendable inning eaters often used in blowouts. There's a reason teams don't have a dedicated long-man year after year, they're typically cannon fodder. Let him ramp up his velocity as a one inning guy and see what he looks like. And it seems since August that's largely what's happened and the results are promising.

[DJL44]

His 2024 at AA was unimpressive and the Twins promoted him to AAA anyway. He was lousy in 2025 in St Paul so they (finally) moved him to the bullpen. He has improved his walks pitching as a reliever but, as noted, the HR rate is double what it needs to be.

We are three seasons past his last good one. A pitching coach could offer better suggestions for improvement than me, but it is clear improvement is needed if he wants to succeed in the big leagues. He has another option season to keep working on his game in 2027.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea why he's not in the bullpen right now over veterans that aren't all that good. 

He has an ERA of 5.5 in AAA. He’s been pretty bad. He can’t get lefties out (874 OPS against) which probably means he needs another pitch to be successful.

[Rosterman]

Raya is from the COVID class of 2020. He did get a taste of the majors, and I don't know why he isn't back here right now, in September. Send Adams back down as you don't need to worry about bringing him up again. Who shut down Morris. There is a way to get some innings for someone with promise.

Raya is still developing as a bullpen arm, a decision they should've pushed mroe last season instead of waiting to do it during this season.

Three of the four guys only rafted in 2020 are in decision mode. Twins must protect Sabato or lose him. He has torn up powerwise AAA ball. He should also have been given a look here in September. Rosario also needs to be protected or lost.

They have invested good money in these three guys.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

He has an ERA of 5.5 in AAA. He’s been pretty bad. He can’t get lefties out (874 OPS against) which probably means he needs another pitch to be successful.

The odds are against him, like most prospects, but he's been much better since they moved him to high leverage situations. Walks, hits, HR and runs way down and strikeouts are up:

Small sample size obviously (tagline of every relief pitcher) but I'm more than happy to keep pulling this thread to see where it goes. 

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The odds are against him, like most prospects, but he's been much better since they moved him to high leverage situations. Walks, hits, HR and runs way down and strikeouts are up:

Small sample size obviously (tagline of every relief pitcher) but I'm more than happy to keep pulling this thread to see where it goes. 

That’s almost a whole month. Promising, but an extremely small sample size - less than 15 innings.

[Andy MacPhail]

I had high hope for Raya to figure into the MLB BP. I had envisioned him as a lesser Duran RP. I was disappointed of his AAA performance but IMO, it was because they used him more in long relief when they should have used him more like they'd used Duran.

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

That’s almost a whole month. Promising, but an extremely small sample size - less than 15 innings.

Sure, but if they've stuck with him through poor performances while used incorrectly, we might as well give him some rope now that he's pitching well when used more appropriately.

[LyleCole]

The answer is almost certainly no.   He just never developed the way they hoped.  It sometimes happens when a prospects performance is heavily influenced by their relative age to competition i.e. he is three plus years younger than the competition.  

[bean5302]

The Twins mishandled him, which is not surprising. He has 6 pitches and mechanical problems which needed addressing. Cutting back 2 of them and allowing him to work on control would have potentially paid dividends. Something to build on. Instead the Twins had Raya trying to build a stone wall by throwing bricks into the sky and wondering why the top of the wall didn't start forming first?

[darin617]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins mishandled him, which is not surprising. He has 6 pitches and mechanical problems which needed addressing. Cutting back 2 of them and allowing him to work on control would have potentially paid dividends. Something to build on. Instead the Twins had Raya trying to build a stone wall by throwing bricks into the sky and wondering why the top of the wall didn't start forming first?

Exactly, if he going to working out of the bullpen they should cut him back to 3-4 pitches at least. Just because he has 6 pitches odds are only 2 grade out to be good.

[darin617]

He has a future in St Paul for sure, Minneapolis might be another thing. He needs to work on a few things and drop at least 2 pitches.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Raya is from the COVID class of 2020. He did get a taste of the majors, and I don't know why he isn't back here right now, in September. Send Adams back down as you don't need to worry about bringing him up again. Who shut down Morris. There is a way to get some innings for someone with promise.

Raya is still developing as a bullpen arm, a decision they should've pushed mroe last season instead of waiting to do it during this season.

Three of the four guys only rafted in 2020 are in decision mode. Twins must protect Sabato or lose him. He has torn up powerwise AAA ball. He should also have been given a look here in September. Rosario also needs to be protected or lost.

They have invested good money in these three guys.

Don't forget Culpepper.  He has a 96 mph fastball and has pitched well at AAA as a reliever this year.  He should be protected 

And I think Raya deserves more chances to make the bullpen.

[bjorks]

I think Raya has a future, maybe not high leverage, but the stuff is there. I think we'll see Soto progress in a similar way and if in 5 years we have Raya and Soto in high leverage roles with someone maybe like Morris closing(?) that's a lot of gas and power arms from the 3rd base side

[jkcarew]

It’s a good question. The org doesn’t seem to think so. When are you going to test him, if not now? And if that’s the case, how much longer can they afford to have him eating a spot on the 40-man? It feels like it’s been forever already.