What Last Year's Fire Sale (Better Have) Taught the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © William Liang-Imagn Images

The 2025 trade deadline was one of the most dramatic turning points in recent Minnesota Twins history. In a matter of days, the front office dismantled much of the major-league roster, moving established veterans for a wave of prospects and younger talent while resetting both the payroll and the organization's timeline.

Some of those deals already look like clear successes. The Twins replenished their farm system, adding high-upside talent that dramatically changed the long-term outlook of the organization. Others, however, have exposed just how difficult it is to project player development, replace elite major-league production, or assume payroll flexibility will eventually translate into roster improvements.

One year later, the Twins find themselves back in the playoff race. Ironically, many of the same needs that existed entering last year's deadline remain unresolved. Looking back, three important lessons have emerged from the organization's aggressive sell-off.

Lesson 1: Building a Bullpen Isn't Easy

One of the biggest assumptions behind last year's deadline appeared to be that rebuilding the bullpen would be relatively straightforward. Elite relievers are volatile, and Minnesota's front office seemed confident it could identify undervalued arms through waivers, minor trades, cash-consideration deals, and internal development. Every organization believes it can find the next breakout reliever.

The Twins have learned that that isn't nearly as easy as it sounds. Andrew Morris has been the organization's biggest internal success story this season, establishing himself as a reliable late-inning option. Beyond him, however, the front office has spent much of the year cycling through waiver claims, minor acquisitions, and depth pieces while searching for consistent production. Instead of entering the season with an established ninth-inning option, the Twins have been forced to piece together leverage innings on a nightly basis.

Meanwhile, Louis Varland has developed into exactly the type of reliever every contender covets. The former Twin has emerged as one of baseball's premier bullpen arms, handling high-leverage situations with swing-and-miss stuff while remaining under inexpensive pre-arbitration control. Those are precisely the types of players championship-caliber teams spend years trying to develop.

Looking back, it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify moving a high-leverage reliever with multiple years of team control remaining. Building a bullpen on paper is one thing. Actually replacing elite bullpen production is another.

Lesson 2: Trading for MLB-Ready Players Doesn't Ensure They're MLB-Ready

Prospect rankings often focus on upside, but last year's deadline also emphasized acquiring players who could contribute quickly. On paper, that strategy made plenty of sense. Alan Roden, Kendry Rojas, Mick Abel, and James Outman all had major-league experience or appeared ready to make the jump entering 2026. The expectation was that several would quickly become meaningful contributors. Instead, reality has been much messier. 

Outman struggled badly, producing negative WAR before ultimately being designated for assignment. Roden opened the season at Triple-A before suffering an injury that delayed his opportunity. He's only recently joined the Twins after finally getting healthy. 

On the pitching side, Abel showed flashes of why the Twins targeted him, but injuries once again interrupted his development. After several encouraging starts, he now appears likely to miss the remainder of the season following surgery to shave bone in his throwing elbow. Rojas has bounced between Triple-A and Minnesota in a multi-inning relief role. His stuff remains intriguing, but inconsistent command has prevented him from establishing himself as a dependable option.

None of those players should be considered finished products. Several still possess the talent to become important contributors over the next few seasons. However, the past year has reinforced a valuable lesson. Being close to the major leagues isn't the same as being ready to consistently succeed in the major leagues. Development rarely follows a straight line.

Lesson 3: Carlos Correa's Dumped Contract Was Never Going to Be Reinvested

Perhaps the biggest misconception surrounding last year's deadline centered around payroll. When the Twins moved Correa and a significant portion of his remaining contract, it was reasonable for many fans to assume those savings would eventually be redirected toward improving the major-league roster. Instead, the opposite happened. Minnesota's payroll has continued to decline, dropping from roughly $160 million in 2024 to approximately $130 million in 2025 before falling again to roughly $105 million in 2026. Complicating matters further, more than $21 million of this year's payroll is tied up in Pablo López, who is sidelined after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Correa himself is out for the season with an ankle injury, while the Twins are still paying the Astros $10 million for him to play elsewhere. The payroll flexibility created by last summer's trade never materialized into meaningful roster additions. Imagine how different this year's club might look with another $20-30 million available.

The Twins could have aggressively pursued multiple late-inning relievers, added another dependable back-end starter, or strengthened the bench with proven veterans. Instead, those remain the organization's biggest needs as another trade deadline approaches. Financial flexibility only creates value if ownership chooses to spend it. Otherwise, it's simply a smaller payroll.

Looking Back While Looking Ahead

It's still too early to declare winners and losers from the 2025 deadline. Several prospects acquired during the fire sale could become impact players over the next few seasons, and rebuilding the farm system was an important organizational objective. That part of the strategy has largely been successful.

But one year later, the Twins also have a clearer understanding of what was lost. Elite relievers aren't easily replaced. MLB-ready players often require more development than expected. And payroll flexibility doesn't automatically become roster improvement.

As Minnesota approaches another trade deadline with postseason aspirations, those lessons should be fresh in the minds of the front office. The decisions made this July will determine whether the organization truly learned from last summer, or simply repeats the same mistakes.

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Do you agree with these lessons from last year's fire sale? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[wesnewy]

It was always just "rightsizing the business." Unfortunately, the modern-day Pohlads don't know how to assemble a properly functioning front office.

[IndianaTwin]

Savings on Correa: $21.5M

Free agent signings:
Bell: $7M
Caratini: $10M
Rogers: $2M

I guess I'm not following the logic that says they didn't redeploy the savings from the Correa trade. True, they didn't explicitly link the Correa savings when announcing any of these signings (they never do), but that's $19M in free agent spending that seems unlikely to have happened if they still had Correa's full salary on the books.

That also doesn't count signing Larnach for $4.475M when he was strongly considered to be a non-tender candidate. Add that and they more than redeployed the Correa savings.

Imagine how different this year's club would look without those four available. 

EDIT to add: I note that elsewhere you have a post pleading for an extension on Bradley. Depending on terms, I would potentially support that. Having moved $21.5M of Correa's salary for future years makes that a much more viable option.  

 

[h2oface]

Abel now out for the year. Got about 20 innings of about 4 ERA this year and 4 “forgettable” outings last year. Tait will become an afterthought with Lackey drafted. The Duran trade becomes more despised as time goes on. 

[weitz41]

The poor corpse of the Varland trade..I mean, can we kick that damn horse a few more times? Varland was a borderline set up guy in the 2025 pen. Jax was always the 1st choice to bridge to Duran. Is the Bluejays BP coach on the Twins staff this year and last year to get him to where he is now? There are so many variables to players having success. CAN we please move on. 

Roden has 21 AB in MLB this season. Rojas has pitched a total of 19.1 MLB innings this season. Abel 20.1 innings in MLB. Outman is a part of the fire sale? Stewart has managed what? 20 innings since the trade?

If you can't move on there's a gallon of sour milk in the fridge, help yourself....

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

The poor corpse of the Varland trade..I mean, can we kick that damn horse a few more times? Varland was a borderline set up guy in the 2025 pen. Jax was always the 1st choice to bridge to Duran. Is the Bluejays BP coach on the Twins staff this year and last year to get him to where he is now? There are so many variables to players having success. CAN we please move on. 

Roden has 21 AB in MLB this season. Rojas has pitched a total of 19.1 MLB innings this season. Abel 20.1 innings in MLB. Outman is a part of the fire sale? Stewart has managed what? 20 innings since the trade?

If you can't move on there's a gallon of sour milk in the fridge, help yourself....

Excellent!  Ya win some, ya lose some.  Move on. 

By the way, trading expiring contracts for prospects is not  comparable to trading Duran or Varland.  The Twins probably won't make the post season.  And if they squeak in, they will be out quickly.  Plan for the future.

[HarmonK03]

20 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Roden has 21 AB in MLB this season.

And in 178 AB's he has an average of .191 and OPS of .544.  These are similar to the numbers he posted last year for Toronto in the first month of the season when he got regular playing time.  Time is running out for him to make an impact and that easily could have been foreseen.  He was not a young prospect when we got him and he was redundant in a position already full with similar players.  That was why this trade never made sense.

[Wedman13]

Fun article but pretty darn biased.  its getting response though so well done! :)

I guess I'd simply ask....would the twins be killing it with Duaran, Stewart, Jax, Bader, Varland, an injured Correa, Castro, Paddock...maybe I'm missing some.  Personally I don't think so, and the energy and talent needed a change.  Surely that's debatable.

the Twins, unless there's a floor, will not have a $160m payroll any time soon.  and if I'm the Pohlads I wouldn't either.  Baseball salary structures need fixin.  So we need to live in that world as Twins fans.  Just opinion

[weitz41]

10 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

And in 178 AB's he has an average of .191 and OPS of .544.  These are similar to the numbers he posted last year for Toronto in the first month of the season when he got regular playing time.  Time is running out for him to make an impact and that easily could have been foreseen.  He was not a young prospect when we got him and he was redundant in a position already full with similar players.  That was why this trade never made sense.

Isn't about where his in now? Don't get me wrong. I'm a little skeptical about Roden as well. But don't forget there is/was Larnach, Wallner, Martin and technically still Keacshall and Clemens. Between him and a 26-man spot. That's a lot of hurdles and yet here he is an old man at 26 and on the team.

[HarmonK03]

3 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Isn't about where his in now? Don't get me wrong. I'm a little skeptical about Roden as well. But don't forget there is/was Larnach, Wallner, Martin and technically still Keacshall and Clemens. Between him and a 26-man spot. That's a lot of hurdles and yet here he is an old man at 26 and on the team.

There are 9 outfielders on the 40 man roster and that doesn't include Keaschall, Jenkins or Rosario.  They need to clear some guys for playing time both here and St. Paul.  That is going to make it hard for Roden to get playing time and he hasn't really done anything to force issue when getting called up.  My fear they are going to platoon Roden and Keaschall which to me would be a very bad move, hopefully we will know more about that with tomorrow night's lineup.  Roden just added to the logjam of outfielders that they need to figure out who can play and who can't.

[weitz41]

4 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

There are 9 outfielders on the 40 man roster and that doesn't include Keaschall, Jenkins or Rosario.  They need to clear some guys for playing time both here and St. Paul.  That is going to make it hard for Roden to get playing time and he hasn't really done anything to force issue when getting called up.  My fear they are going to platoon Roden and Keaschall which to me would be a very bad move, hopefully we will know more about that with tomorrow night's lineup.  Roden just added to the logjam of outfielders that they need to figure out who can play and who can't.

I agree. But then I look at the other one's minor league career numbers and say maybe he is the right guy till E Rod can manage to get and stay healthy. Wallner has a better OPS but the SO rate...well yeah.

[HarmonK03]

Just now, weitz41 said:

I agree. But then I look at the other one's minor league career numbers and say maybe he is the right guy till E Rod can manage to get and stay healthy. Wallner has a better OPS but the SO rate...well yeah.

Wallner hasn't been able to sustain any success up here and probably is done with the Twins.  ERod is out of options and will have to be on team next year unless he gets another option year due to his injury this year.  Jenkins should be up here before Roden.  His ceiling is as a fourth outfielder, don't force playing time for someone with that profile.

[Brandon]

The lesson to be learned is that shiny new prospects don't need to get injured right as they are starting to make a mark.  Abel, I'm talking to you. And Festa and while he isn't a prospect Banda went and got hurt right after I joined the Bandawagon.  

Next lesson.  Trading a reliever that throws 99 after trading all your other good relievers.  WTF!  

Last lesson.  While it will take a minute to fully be realized, It looks like the Twins are going to win the Duran trade by a lot and Duran is good..  that's the kinda trade we gotta make. 

And I hope we learn that Gallagher has a lot of value as a middle reliever soon.  That would be a fun lesson to learn.