Week in Review: Reality Check

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
The past week represented an interesting opportunity for the Minnesota Twins to match up against a couple of franchises in similar positions. The White Sox and Pirates are also lower-budget teams that are focused on development and building toward the future while also trying to stay competitive in the present. During these two series, the Twins looked to be miles behind both opponents. 

They lost six of seven games, with the only win coming in a laborious 11-inning affair on Tuesday. An increasingly injury-ravaged and filler-packed pitching staff gave up nine-plus runs on three separate occasions as the team's biggest strength from the first third of the season lapsed into a liability. Now the Twins will limp back to Target Field on a five-game losing streak, hoping to capture any kind of positive energy with the season sinking back into darkness.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/25 through Sun, 5/31
***
Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 27-33)
Run Differential Last Week: -25 (Overall: -21)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.5 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 54 | CWS 3, MIN 1: Twins Come Out on Losing End of Chi-Town Pitching Duel

• Martin, Bell, Clemens: 0-12

Game 55 | MIN 5, CWS 3 (11): Lee's Clutch Three-Run Double Secures Win in Extras

• Ryan: 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K

Game 56 | CWS 15, MIN 2: Regression Hits Like Load of Bricks in Massive Blowout 

• Orze, Adams: 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K

Game 57 | CWS 6, MIN 2: Walks, Mistakes Cost Twins Early in Disappointing Series Finale

• Woods Richardson: 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K

Game 58 | PIT 6, MIN 5: Reynolds Walks Off Rogers with Two-Run Homer in Ninth Inning

• Larnach: 2-4, HR, 2 RBI

Game 59 | PIT 10, MIN 9: Fierce Comeback Effort Fall Short After Ober Digs Big Early Hole

• Ober: 4.2 IP, 8 R (7 ER), 12 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Game 60 | PIT 9, MIN 3: Pirates Rough Up Tiwns Pitching Once Again to Seal Sweep at PNC

• Matthews: 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K

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NEWS & NOTES

The Twins already have Mick Abel and Alan Roden — two key pieces acquired at last year's trade deadline — on the injured list indefinitely, and they've seen Taj Bradley sidelined for a spell. On Friday, another hopeful future fixture from that deadline class landed on the shelf, with Kendry Rojas placed on the 15-day IL due to elbow soreness. 

The injury is being billed as inflammation, and Joe Ryan's recent example taught us not to overreact, but this is certainly ominous news for Rojas, whose health history was part of the reason behind Toronto's willingness to give up his promising arm in the Louis Varland trade.

Stepping back into the rotation on short notice for Rojas was Simeon Woods Richardson. Unfortunately, he picked up right where he left off, coughing up five earned runs on five hits and three walks in 2 ⅔ innings. At that point, the Twins had seen enough: they designated Woods Richardson for assignment on Saturday, exposing the 25-year-old to waivers and potentially losing him for nothing. A major downfall from the strong finish last year, and from my view a bit of a questionable decision.

 

One day after designating Woods Richardson for assignment, the Twins lost another former rotation anchor, with Bailey Ober also heading to the injured list due to elbow inflammation. After impressively giving up just five homers through 52 innings in his first nine starts, Ober had given up seven in his past three, and he got flat-out crushed by the Pirates on Saturday. 

We'll see how long he's out, and we'll see if Woods Richardson is able to get through waivers and stick around, because the depth would be even handier now.

The Twins selected the contract of right-hander Mike Paredes from St. Paul to replace Ober on the roster. Paredes is a fun story as a former 18th-round draft pick out of high school who has turned himself into, if not a prospect, at least an intriguing arm who has captured the Twins' attention. Working as a 4-5 inning starter with the Saints, the 25-year-old posted a 2.70 ERA and 25-to-5 K/BB ratio in May, and he also has plenty of experience pitching in relief. Paredes made his MLB debut on Sunday, shaking off early control issues to allow just one earned run in 3 ⅔ innings. 

In other pitching moves, Travis Adams was sent down and called back up, while John Klein was called up and sent back down. Kody Funderburk also returned to the fold from Triple-A. The Twins, who've already used 18 pitchers in relief this year (not counting Orlando Arcia) are in a constant churn to keep fresh arms at their disposal.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Joe Ryan experience continues to be a very enjoyable one. He turned in a fourth consecutive excellent outing in the wake of his early-May elbow scare, holding the White Sox to two runs over 7 ⅔ innings with zero walks and nine strikeouts. 

 

As so much goes amiss in the rotation around him, Ryan has been beyond steady, putting up quality starts in seven of his past nine turns while seemingly looking better each time out. He ranks fifth among MLB starters in fWAR and appears very much on track to make a second straight All-Star team. It's a little bittersweet that, as Ryan excels and the Twins unravel, the biggest implication of his success is what it means for his trade value rather than this team's outlook.

It was an interesting week for Kody Clemens. On Wednesday he made his first professional start in center field, and then he was back there three times in the next four days. To his credit, Clemens mostly held his own in the surprising assignment, and he also delivered a power-packed week at the plate with two homers, two triples and a double.

 

Finally, Brooks Lee deserves a shout out. He came through with the clutch three-run double in extras to lift the Twins in their lone victory of the week, and also homered three times, pushing his season total to eight. 

Lee's output this season has been highly sporadic, and that was the case again last week — he was 2-for-21 with one walk outside of those four extra-base hits — but the occasional power flurry is welcome and it's nice to see him at least holding his own at the plate with an OPS that's been hovering around average. If he's going to keep batting second and playing third base, he'll need to meet a higher bar for consistency. 

LOWLIGHTS

Rojas is hurt. Ober is hurt. Abel remains sidelined. Bradley is still fresh off the injured list, but had his shortest start of the season on Friday (4 IP, 5 ER) after being pushed back a day. And now Woods Richardson is out the door.

The rotation has been one of the biggest strengths and stabilizers for the Twins over the first two months, but has taken a quick and drastic turn for the worst. Even in the healthier contingent, things are not trending well aside from Ryan. 

Zebby Matthews got knocked around by the Pirates on Sunday, coughing up seven earned runs in 4 ⅓ innings. It was his second straight start allowing multiple homers, succumbing to what has largely been his kryptonite as an MLB pitcher. He's got to keep the ball in the yard.

 

Connor Prielipp is bogging down in his own introduction to the big leagues. After posting a shiny 2.88 ERA through his first five starts, Prielipp has turned in back-to-back rough outings, including his latest against the White Sox: 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 5 K. The erratic performance included a pair of wild pitches. 

Prielipp's ability and raw stuff have never been in doubt. The big question is how he will handle throwing 85-90 pitches every fifth day with an arm that hasn't been conditioned for such rigors. Hopefully what we're seeing now is a temporary stumble rather than a sign of Prielipp struggling to endure the taxing workload of an MLB starting pitcher.

As the pitching staff wears down, Minnesota's offense is not proving capable of keeping pace with the opposition. In these seven games, they were outscored by 25 and out-hit by by 23. The White Sox and Pirates went 12-for-13 on stolen bases (including 5-for-5 against Victor Caratini on Saturday) while the Twins went 1-for-3. Minnesota's hitters struck out 67 times against 13 walks. 

There are too many non-factors in the lineup on a day-to-day basis. The Twins are going out of their way to keep Austin Martin in right field even as his production falls off a cliff — he went 1-for-22 with a walk in the past week and his OPS dropped by 187 points in the month of May. Using Martin routinely in right field against right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a sub-.650 OPS, is a glaring sign of this offense's shortcomings and lack of optimization.

So too is Josh Bell batting third, as he did on Saturday despite an OPS that had nearly dropped below .600. He did deliver three RBIs in that game but Bell has been a major liability while hitting in the middle of the order. The Twins hoped he could bring both power and discipline as a veteran presence but in May, Bell managed just two home runs with 30-to-3 K-BB ratio in 102 plate appearances. He entered play on Sunday tied with Pittsburgh's Marcell Ozuna for the worst fWAR among qualified big-leaguers at negative-0.8. 

Trevor Larnach, another early-season success story, is slumping with a deteriorating plate approach: he went 3-for-24 with 10 strikeouts and one walk. Luke Keaschall is slugging .322. Caratini has four extra-base hits all aseason. 

Aside from Byron Buxton, who remains clearly hobbled and limited to DH, there is just no one in this lineup who inspires much faith at all. With the attrition and struggles on the pitching staff, unless several of these languishing hitters can step up and show something, things are prone to get pretty ugly here in June.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Royce Lewis is campaigning for a recall at Triple-A. He's been on a tear ever since his demotion, batting .324 with five homers and three doubles in nine games. It bears noting that he's still striking out a fair amount (eight times in 21 plate appearances over the past week) but the production is there and he's swinging with a visibly renewed confidence. 

 

I'm not under the illusion that Royce has suddenly been "fixed" by a couple good weeks against minor-league pitching, but at some point the Twins will need to bring him back and see if he can channel that against the real deal. Might they feel an extra sense of urgency to seek a spark as their offense spins its wheels a with lineup full of punchless bats.

The big question, of course, is where he will fit in, whenever the Twins deem him ready to return. Brooks Lee appears to be digging himself in at third base, which is where Lewis has played exclusively since being optioned. It seems notable that Arcia was the starter at first base on Sunday, which at least sets up the stylistic precedent for Lewis to play there.

Will he start getting some reps there with the Saints? Or maybe at second base, or even the outfield? Presumably the Twins will want to at least work him in at a few positions to establish some flexibility before bringing him back. I'm more interested to see how many positions he plays in the coming week than how many more homers he pops against Triple-A pitchers.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins return home to wrap up their longest stretch of the season without an off day. They've played 10 straight and they'll play seven more at Target Field, with the White Sox arriving for a quick-turnaround rematch followed by a matchup against the struggling Royals. The Twins would love to bounce back against the Sox and may find the going a little easier with Munetaka Murakami now on the injured list. It remains to be seen how Ober's spot in the rotation will be filled.

MONDAY, JUNE 1: WHITE SOX @ TWINS —RHP David Sandlin v. RHP Joe Ryan
TUESDAY, JUNE 2:  WHITE SOX @ TWINS — RHP Davis Martin v. LHP Connor Prielipp
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 3: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — RHP Erick Fedde v. RHP Taj Bradley
THURSDAY, JUNE 4: ROYALS @ TWINS — RHP Seth Lugo v. TBD
FRIDAY, JUNE 5: ROYALS @ TWINS — RHP Michael Wacha v. RHP Zebby Matthews
SATURDAY, JUNE 6: ROYALS @ TWINS — TBD v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, JUNE 7: ROYALS @ TWINS — LHP Noah Cameron v. LHP Connor Prielipp

View full article

[mikelink45]

HELP! 

[Vanimal46]

The weather warmed up and the bats went ice cold. What is the hold up promoting Kaelen Culpepper to the majors? It certainly can’t be Tristan Gray and his .566 OPS in the last week. Ryan Kreidler isn’t playing SS anymore and neither is Brooks Lee. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but had they simply waited a day, SWR would have been needed on the MLB roster. It felt very short sighted to likely lose him for 1 day of bullpen help.

Not much choice but to ride it out with the few young players we are playing in the field and the pitching staff. This isn’t a playoff team - let’s get the future underway. 

[thelanges5]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The weather warmed up and the bats went ice cold. What is the hold up promoting Kaelen Culpepper to the majors? It certainly can’t be Tristan Gray and his .566 OPS in the last week. Ryan Kreidler isn’t playing SS anymore and neither is Brooks Lee. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but had they simply waited a day, SWR would have been needed on the MLB roster. It felt very short sighted to likely lose him for 1 day of bullpen help.

Not much choice but to ride it out with the few young players we are playing in the field and the pitching staff. This isn’t a playoff team - let’s get the future underway. 

Time to see what we’ve got. Sucks that Roden and Jenkins are hurt. No real reason that we’re not seeing Culpepper, Gabby, and a few others (ie Fedko) in the meantime. No one wants to see Outman, Gray, Kreidler. 

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Hindsight is 20/20, but had they simply waited a day, SWR would have been needed on the MLB roster. It felt very short sighted to likely lose him for 1 day of bullpen help.

Has to be more to it than that.  This franchise has always been about stewardship of resources, and exposing a player needlessly to waivers goes against their very grain.  Outman remaining on the 26-man roster is exactly such an example, and he's a much less-valuable case.  I'm expecting some other shoe to drop shortly regarding SWR.

[stringer bell]

The White Sox and Pirates were too good for the Twins. At their best and the Pirates snd White Sox and the Twins are roughly equal IMHO. At this time, the Twins biggest strength (starting pitching) has been ravaged by injury and the rest of the team has’t been up to the challenge. Without Buxton in center field, the shape of the roster goes from questionable to totally mismatched.

I haven’t decided how positive a move the change of position for Lee really is. I think it’s an admission that Brooks is too limited at short to be part of a championship team. I don’t know if it necessarily means that the Twins are firmly committed to Culpepper. Finally, I don’t believe it signals the end for Lewis. If he’s the better hitter and fielder than Lee, he can win back third base.

I’m disappointed in a lot of position players—the last month has really shaken my confidence in several players. It is probably time to try something else at several positions. I really would like to see a faster, more athletic group with superior defensive aptitude.

I hope a few top arms recover soon, but once the injury bug bites, it tends to stick around. 

[krink]

A very good write up of what's been a hard week. Playing the White Sox and the Pirates has been incredibly sobering. I was never expecting amazing, but youch.

I remain foolishly, delusionally optimistic! Looking over both leagues, we're barely even in the bottom third! I knew this was going to be painful - being a Twins fan always has been a study in self abuse.

But, looking into June, I don't think it's gonna be all bad! Sure, we have to play the White Sox again, but then it's the Royals and the Tigers! And there's a chance I may experience joy again briefly. The Cardinal's are gonna hurt, but we aren't terribly far behind the Rangers at this point! I don't even want to think about the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, but I have a few weeks to prepare for what is going to most certainly be a curb stomping... But then it's the Rockies! And the Astros - we already beat those guys!

I think June is going to be fun. Our lineup is hardly God's gift to baseball, but I think they can drag us through June at least. There's still an empty slot on the roster, and I can't wait to see who earns it. I'm really rooting for Culpepper! And I'm eager to see what recovers first - the starting pitching or the offense. We've finally got the bullpen... Not actively drowning. So one of the two has to start coming back! Right?

Right...?

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Has to be more to it than that.  This franchise has always been about stewardship of resources, and exposing a player needlessly to waivers goes against their very grain.  Outman remaining on the 26-man roster is exactly such an example, and he's a much less-valuable case.  I'm expecting some other shoe to drop shortly regarding SWR.

I agree there’s definitely more to the story. Hopefully one of the many beat writers gets to the bottom of it. I could envision SWR being upset about getting removed from the rotation after a rough 4-6 week stretch when he just witnessed the organization support Ober all of last season when he was terrible. 

[Danchat]

23 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

No real reason that we’re not seeing Culpepper, Gabby

I'm fine keeping Gabby down for now, he's overall not hit well at AAA and he's still very young. Let the guys who have earned a promotion get a shot 

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm expecting some other shoe to drop shortly regarding SWR.

What would the other shoe be? Him asking for his release, an off the field issue?

[Vanimal46]

Also, not that it needs to be said, but Ryan Jeffers is a catastrophic loss for this team on multiple fronts. Alex Jackson isn’t an MLB caliber catcher - I think we all knew that anyway. Caratini isn’t any better and now getting ran on left and right. 

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, Danchat said:

What would the other shoe be? Him asking for his release, an off the field issue?

I don't have any more inside-information than anyone else here.  When faced with an inexplicable decision, I tend to assume there is information I am missing, rather than complete stupidity.  So my answer is "I don't know" but here are the nuances.

1) Granting a request for a release seems extremely unlikely.  Terrible precedent to set.  "Wait, you mean I could just ask out, like that one guy last year, Sam, Simon Whats-his-name, did?"

2)  I wouldn't even want to speculate what kind of off field issue could have happened.

3) Might a trade be in the works?  The DFA was announced on a Saturday.  Maybe the trade partner doesn't like to conduct business on a weekend, or maybe there are league rules I'm unaware of.  This possibility will play out early tomorrow if it is the case.

4) Maybe there won't be another shoe dropped publicly and we'll never know.  I'll continue to believe there's more to the story that neither party wants to divulge.

[Wedman13]

19 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Also, not that it needs to be said, but Ryan Jeffers is a catastrophic loss for this team on multiple fronts. Alex Jackson isn’t an MLB caliber catcher - I think we all knew that anyway. Caratini isn’t any better and now getting ran on left and right. 

It just all went sideways.  Like it seemingly always does.  Abel hurt, Taj out for a few, SWR was horrible, Zebby sucks, Royce and Walner screwed it big time, Jeffers out, Larnach now has less power than most of us.  Both Jenkins and Emma injured constantly.  If half those guys work out, it may have been fun.  But none, which is why we see Gray, Kriedler, Jackson, etc.

does every team face these setbacks, seeming every year?  I don't get it.... nor do I even know who to be frustrated with

[tony&rodney]

Seems like it is too early in the season to pull off a trade but it does seem like Sim And Royce are ready for the road. I wish them luck and hope the Twins get at least a little luck in return (high level talent at A ball or a comp pick).

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Rough week. Too many injuries. So many players struggling. 

Let's see how this plays out. 

 

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

The weather warmed up and the bats went ice cold. What is the hold up promoting Kaelen Culpepper to the majors? It certainly can’t be Tristan Gray and his .566 OPS in the last week. Ryan Kreidler isn’t playing SS anymore and neither is Brooks Lee. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but had they simply waited a day, SWR would have been needed on the MLB roster. It felt very short sighted to likely lose him for 1 day of bullpen help.

Not much choice but to ride it out with the few young players we are playing in the field and the pitching staff. This isn’t a playoff team - let’s get the future underway. 

Call up Culpepper for the U guys at SS, Fedko to replace Outman as backup center fielder as I’m guessing by his stats he can hit higher than a buck fifty, Sabato, who has big time numbers to replace the inept Bell who clearly has a strange and ineffective swing and Hendry Mendez because .350 with .480 OBP. Also explore trades for offensive help.

[MMMordabito]

[karcherd]

We have four starters and no one prepared in AAA to step in to a starting role.  Some of this is injuries but the other reason is they have turned the majority of the staff in St. Paul into bulk relievers.  So they are not prepared from either a pitch count or facing a lineup multiple times to be starters.  So bring up two of those guys to replace Ober and run your bullpen short.

Even with injuries you have to have guys in roles prepared to come up and help out the team.  They may not have much success, but you can't run a bullpen game every 5th day.

They really need someone to come in and be a senior advisor to Zoll, I don't think he is up to the task of being the top baseball voice in an organization.  And every day he flounders sets this team back even further.

Last thought, they really need to consider extending Jeffers, hopefully he would agree to it.  Do you really want to see Caratini behind the plate for 100 games next year.

[William K Johnson]

Extend Jennings to begin the climb up to what will eventually be the "floor level" salary requirement of the new CBA.

[Parfigliano]

Reality Bites.

[USAFChief]

Water seeks its own level. 

The Twins are a 70-ish win team.

 

[Peter]

White Sox and pirates are better than I thought! Injuries are killing twins-now with ober- I’ll still watch every single game-but it’s time to bring up the future and see what they can do-that can’t do any worse then what we have now. Let’s hope they bounce back this week with winning baseball 

[bean5302]

SWR has been utterly awful. He was not wanted or needed, period. Nobody should be saying they actually wanted to see Sim on the mound in the big show. 

What can be argued is maybe there's something in the tank from the bullpen the Twins could have tapped into. Sim is not and never has been an MLB caliber rotation arm in my opinion. He's gotten results, but it's taken a fair bit of luck and a whole lot of kid gloves yanking him after short inning starts which tax the bullpen. It's also worth noting the Twins optioned him last year after his poor performance forced him off the roster.

He simply does not have the stuff. He has never had the stuff. Sim has always had to rely upon pinpoint locations at the very edges and corners of the zone. This is exactly what I expected out of SWR which is why I've felt he belongs in the 'pen if he's going to make it.

We'll see if he gets claimed. I think he will, but I've been wrong about that in the past where I'm a Twins fan so I see potential in Twins players who are fringy. If Sim goes unclaimed, well, that is virtually irrefutable proof Sim isn't viewed as an MLB level talent.

[bean5302]

I don't see Lewis as ready. He's still hyper aggressive and swinging at junk. He owns a 4.2% BB to a 33.3% K rate over his past 5 games. Nobody gives a rat's behind if he can demolish AAA pitchers. He needs to demonstrate the approach needed which will allow him to compete against MLB caliber pitchers who can actually throw strikes vs. International League pitchers who have become absolute trash in recent years.

[Patzky]

9 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Call up Culpepper for the U guys at SS, Fedko to replace Outman as backup center fielder as I’m guessing by his stats he can hit higher than a buck fifty, Sabato, who has big time numbers to replace the inept Bell who clearly has a strange and ineffective swing and Hendry Mendez because .350 with .480 OBP. Also explore trades for offensive help.

Fans will be more forgiving if they see effort and lose exciting 9-7 games vs boring old 5-1 ones.

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Time to see what we’ve got. Sucks that Roden and Jenkins are hurt. No real reason that we’re not seeing Culpepper, Gabby, and a few others (ie Fedko) in the meantime. No one wants to see Outman, Gray, Kreidler. 

The Twins don't even want to see Outman as they've moved Clemens to CF just so they don't have to play Outman. But they roster him anyways. I'm just not smart enough to understand why a team rosters a vet they won't even play.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Reality Bites.

This was, no joke, the original title for the column. Then I looked around and couldn't confirm that the phrase existed outside if a 1994 rom-com and thought it was too obscure 😆

[Parfigliano]

51 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

This was, no joke, the original title for the column. Then I looked around and couldn't confirm that the phrase existed outside if a 1994 rom-com and thought it was too obscure 😆

Obscure is my sweet spot.

[Parfigliano]

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The White Sox and Pirates were too good for the Twins. At their best and the Pirates snd White Sox and the Twins are roughly equal IMHO. At this time, the Twins biggest strength (starting pitching) has been ravaged by injury and the rest of the team has’t been up to the challenge. Without Buxton in center field, the shape of the roster goes from questionable to totally mismatched.

I haven’t decided how positive a move the change of position for Lee really is. I think it’s an admission that Brooks is too limited at short to be part of a championship team. I don’t know if it necessarily means that the Twins are firmly committed to Culpepper. Finally, I don’t believe it signals the end for Lewis. If he’s the better hitter and fielder than Lee, he can win back third base.

I’m disappointed in a lot of position players—the last month has really shaken my confidence in several players. It is probably time to try something else at several positions. I really would like to see a faster, more athletic group with superior defensive aptitude.

I hope a few top arms recover soon, but once the injury bug bites, it tends to stick around. 

Lee is on the wrong team because this isn't a championship team.

[minman1982]

The last week has made the "should they trade Joe Ryan" question a lot easier to answer. I feel the White Sox and Pirates are both young teams that are looking to break out. The Twins should be there at this point, but they clearly are not. Both series were frustrating to watch. 

[Linus]

When the team is as flawed as the Twins are, there are going to be stretches like this. There will be some good weeks as well so I will still be watching but the reality is there is going to be some bleak stretches.