Twins 13, Red Sox 6: This Team is Hot

[mickster]

3 hours ago, UK Twin said:

Caratini was a very shrewd signing. He's a decent 1B so his bat will be in the lineup most days and we have our main catcher for next year assuming Jeffers departs in FA. 

It's hard to believe the Twins are 2nd in the AL in runs scored. It helps that the two main FA signings, Bell and Caratini have settled really nicely. And Buxton and Keaschall haven't got going yet so there's more to come.

Make the big move and extend Jeffers now...........his price tag just keeps going up and his value to this team is huge.   

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, mickster said:

Festa dn Matthews are likely to join mid-summer

I would like to see Festa pitch for a week without injuring himself before declaring him likely to do anything. He will need the full minor league rehab to show he is healthy and effective.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, Colbeh said:

Those first two innings were nuts! 

This is a fun team to watch right now and should get more exciting as Prielipp, Festa, Matthews, Culpepper, Emma and possibly GG/Jenkins join the big squad.

Right now, the Twins have a far better record in MLB than the Saints in AAA - and other than Prielipp, none of the listed players is exactly tearing it up. No need for reinforcements at the moment.

[LewFordLives]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

 

If we are not solidly out of contention by the deadline... it is going to be VERY interesting how we handle Ryan and Jeffers. 

 

The decisions regarding Jeffers will be difficult... Ryan not so much. He's still under control through next year. They have the luxury of a couple more decision points with him.

[jmlease1]

Excellent win. Was nervous about facing Crochet, who had been very good so far this season and had to wonder if facing this parade of LHP was going to get to the Twins. But they absolutely jumped all over him. 

Ober wasn't great, but he did the job which was to get through at least 6 with a big lead and make sure to give at least 1 guy i the bullpen the night off. Mission accomplished, and he probably pitched a little differently than he would have without so much run support. Was good to see the fastball break 90 mph again? As a 5th starter, he's doing ok. Just puts pressure on other guys to step up.

Things actually could have run worse last night for the BoSox; Bell hit a few deep that came up empty, he wasn't far off from putting a few in the seats.

Thought Molitor was decent in the booth last night? Provus & Perk did a good job to leading him in, and with a little more practice I think he'll be a fun addition. Best moment? When Crochet got pulled, Molly commented: "I think that ERA is going to take a little hit there, Perk." That was pretty damn funny.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Approach at the plate this year compared to prior seasons - a breath of fresh air.

The line-up will cool off - it is how baseball works. But there's enough there for the offense to be at least serviceable.

Same goes for the rotation. Bradley will regress a bit but I think we see more from Ryan, Ober, Abel and SWR. Rotation is a +.

That just leaves the bullpen. Shelton has pushed all the right buttons so far and the group hasn't killed the Twins - but at some point, it could come crashing down. I wouldn't trust any of these relievers in a one run game, 9th inning.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Oh, as for Jeffers - enjoy this season as long as you can because it is likely his last in Minnesota. 

At this point, I wonder if Royce isn't approaching the Twins about a long-term, below market extension. Considering his injuries, the security might be nice - would the Twins say yes?

They extended Paddack when he got hurt - maybe something similar with Pablo but his price tag is way, way higher than what Paddack's was...

[arby58]

6 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Haha

typical MN response (from me) "I know it's really early in the year" but is it possible Rocco was simply an awful manager?  I think most liked him, me included, but somewhere along the way it feels like he lost concept.  We can debate MW all day but if in the lineup, should Rocco had him as lead off hitter? Probably not fair to Matt.   The lineups changed every single day.  A starter couldn't go more than 4-5 innings.

no idea where this ends, but as and old timer it's fun to watch baseball played again the way I was raised with.

I wasn't a Rocco hater, but there is something more stable about Shelton's managing of the team. In particular, he is giving his starting pitchers more opporunity to pitch further in the game than Rocco. Through 17 games, the starter has gone 100+ pitches 6 times (4 different starters at least once) and 90+ an additional 4 times. In contrast, through 17 games last year it was 2 for 100+ pitches and 2 for 90+.  I'm sure Rocco would have pulled Ober after the 5th inning last night, and Bradley last time probably after the 4th. My guess is his pitchers are happy about how he's handling them. Sure, Ober gave up a couple of runs in the 6th, but he had a chance for a quality start - anybody really think Rocco would have done that?

Same with the lineup - people pretty much know where they are going to hit, and mostly where they are going to play. It's sort of reassuring.

[Doctor Gast]

We have been in almost every game this season. My gut told me that we'd have a good series against DET, TOR & BOS. After the Skubal/ Ober victory with the bats coming alive, I stated we could go 10-0. Right now, we should be 8-0. There were doubters entering this BOS series. After this game, I hope we have more believers. 

For years, I have been pessimistic about the Twins, even though they've looked good on paper. After the big sell-off of most of the Twins' impact players, I had all but given up on the Twins, even lost all interest in the Twins' prospects. All this changed when Falvey left with all his puppets. Twins weren't disappointing because they didn't have enough money (although, Falvey convinced many that it was so). They were disappointing because Falvey adopted a cheap version of the NYY model. Where defense, baserunning, offense SOs & fundamentals were insignificant. HRs were the only thing that was important. Players' evaluation & development were based entirely on wierd analytics & FA is the team's savior. Instead of being a better version of MIL/ CLE's model which is the mirror opposite of NYY.

The best offseason move was the removal of Falvey. We have a new Pohlad, new Business Opps, new Baseball Opps, new manager, many new coaches, many new young & veteran players; it takes time to gel. My hope is for Shelton to throw away the old playbook & Zoll to unlearn all that he learned under Falvey's mentorship & draw from his time in LAD. Even though we look much worse on paper now than before. Now, I'm looking into the future with much more optimism. Tom Polhad is doing the best he can under the conditions. I encourage every Twins fan to go out & support our Twins (they are our baseball team) & stop misguidingly boycotting the Pohlads by not going out to do so.

I've been absent from participating on TD for months, because I was unfortunately blocked in Brazil.

[CRF]

Let's just hope that next week the headline doesn't read "This team isn't hot".

[Nshore]

Sonny Gray must be shaking in his spikes.  I bet he calls in sick.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Haha

typical MN response (from me) "I know it's really early in the year" but is it possible Rocco was simply an awful manager?  I think most liked him, me included, but somewhere along the way it feels like he lost concept.  We can debate MW all day but if in the lineup, should Rocco had him as lead off hitter? Probably not fair to Matt.   The lineups changed every single day.  A starter couldn't go more than 4-5 innings.

no idea where this ends, but as and old timer it's fun to watch baseball played again the way I was raised with.

A bit skewed. Players play. Line-ups were altered routinely LOOKING for somebody to hit. There was no Caratini - Bell - Keaschall (routinely) ………….different animal.

Team started 3-6 and scored 1 run in 4 of those games. They are now hitting and it’s not the batting order, IMO. Keaschall & Buxton are routinely in the 3 & 1 spots …… .215 & .200 BA’s.

[Linus]

This is fun - there might be something to low expectations. The lineup is just different enough that perhaps we can be better scoring runs than the last couple of years. Very unanalytical observation here but it feels a little different having some guys that can run a little bit. For sure this latest streak has been boosted by guys getting hits with runners in scoring position which has really been a problem in the past. I’m liking the way Shelton is handling the pitching - a little less rigid which is helping out the bullpen. Small example is getting two innings out of Acton last night and saving another arm. I’m going to enjoy this while it lasts. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I wasn't a Rocco hater, but there is something more stable about Shelton's managing of the team. In particular, he is giving his starting pitchers more opporunity to pitch further in the game than Rocco. Through 17 games, the starter has gone 100+ pitches 6 times (4 different starters at least once) and 90+ an additional 4 times. In contrast, through 17 games last year it was 2 for 100+ pitches and 2 for 90+.  I'm sure Rocco would have pulled Ober after the 5th inning last night, and Bradley last time probably after the 4th. My guess is his pitchers are happy about how he's handling them. Sure, Ober gave up a couple of runs in the 6th, but he had a chance for a quality start - anybody really think Rocco would have done that?

Same with the lineup - people pretty much know where they are going to hit, and mostly where they are going to play. It's sort of reassuring.

Seems like a lack of context to me.

Rocco had Stewart - Jax - Varland - Duran ……. with Topa - Sands - Coulombe - Funderburk.

This year’s PEN is truly mediocre and NOT a strength, regardless of Team’s record to date. Hence, any Manager would try to avoid using that group and certainly they wouldn’t “overuse” them.

Also, Bradley & Ober had 7 & 9 run leads going into that extra inning that pushed them both toward 100 pitches. It’s not Managerial rocket science to send those two guys back out for another inning.

Line-up consistency being a BENEFIT is a bit of smoke & mirrors view, IMO. Lead-off hitter (previously #3) is hitting .200 & current (prominent) #3 hitter is hitting .215. Larnach has hit 7th & 2nd ….. Wallner occupied 4th spot many, many games while charging to the League lead in strikeouts. He’s been in the 7th spot over most of last handful of games. His contribution last night was taking one in the ribs. They started 3-6 ………guys haven’t been profoundly shuffled to a “new set line-up” over last 8 games that’s created 6 runs plus per game. Players play - things are going well right now! The Manager’s control over the outcomes in the batter’s box are minimal at best.

[bunsen82]

For the issues with risp the last 2 years-  this team in the last week has tried to even out those statistics.  Bell has someone at 2 base and its almost as if he is willing a hit.  Also he could easily have 2 more rbi as 2 players were held at 3rd that could have scored just in the last week.  Tristan Gray also has 2 of his biggest hits with bases loaded , and the other with 2 on.  

This will likely level out.  We do have a solid offensive team,  that in short sample sizes appears to be stronger against lefty pitching than the past 2 years,  and we we have an above average hitting lineup.  We have a poor defensive team,  and a bullpen that is greater than the sum of its parts.  We were on the verge of the bullpen imploding 4-5 days  ago from overuse.   We have had a wicked stretch of scheduling.  

Now there are some positives on the horizon - 1 Culpepper will improve our defense and likely be a better offensive weapon at the shortstop position.  We have a lot of young talent available for the outfield.   So far they aren't hitting great in AAA,  but Jenkins general takes a bit before he warms up.  In either case this bullpen is no version of a competent postseason staff and the trades to get it there would be difficult.   How would we view this team if Varland was our closer?   

As I have said since the offseason,  this is a .500 ish team.   

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

38 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I wasn't a Rocco hater, but there is something more stable about Shelton's managing of the team. In particular, he is giving his starting pitchers more opporunity to pitch further in the game than Rocco. Through 17 games, the starter has gone 100+ pitches 6 times (4 different starters at least once) and 90+ an additional 4 times. In contrast, through 17 games last year it was 2 for 100+ pitches and 2 for 90+.  I'm sure Rocco would have pulled Ober after the 5th inning last night, and Bradley last time probably after the 4th. My guess is his pitchers are happy about how he's handling them. Sure, Ober gave up a couple of runs in the 6th, but he had a chance for a quality start - anybody really think Rocco would have done that?

Same with the lineup - people pretty much know where they are going to hit, and mostly where they are going to play. It's sort of reassuring.

This is something that I noticed. As infuriating as it can be to watch hitters struggle out of the gate, I don't think you do them any favors with a yo-yo approach to playing time or the batting order. There's a lot more consistency and I think the hitters have responded. Something to be said for not having to look over your shoulder all the time.

[JD-TWINS]

46 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Oh, as for Jeffers - enjoy this season as long as you can because it is likely his last in Minnesota. 

At this point, I wonder if Royce isn't approaching the Twins about a long-term, below market extension. Considering his injuries, the security might be nice - would the Twins say yes?

They extended Paddack when he got hurt - maybe something similar with Pablo but his price tag is way, way higher than what Paddack's was...

Gotta say that not too many players/agents are pursuing “below market extensions” when they hit below .230 with not much power and have an inability to stay on the field more than 30 games in a row due to frequent injuries. Lewis, while showing energy regularly and occasional flashes of greatness, may be the most disappointing guy on the club with the talent he has.

[thelanges5]

53 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Oh, as for Jeffers - enjoy this season as long as you can because it is likely his last in Minnesota. 

At this point, I wonder if Royce isn't approaching the Twins about a long-term, below market extension. Considering his injuries, the security might be nice - would the Twins say yes?

They extended Paddack when he got hurt - maybe something similar with Pablo but his price tag is way, way higher than what Paddack's was...

Was thinking the same thing about Lewis.  He is a Boras client but maybe a Buxton-type deal?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

5 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Was thinking the same thing about Lewis.  He is a Boras client but maybe a Buxton-type deal?

Hard to believe Buck makes 'only' $15M.

[Twodogs]

10 hours ago, Dman said:

I never in my wildest dreams imagined this offense was capable of what they have done the last week.  This defies all expectations. Baseball has crazy streaks so I guess enjoy the ride.  Getting this team to score runs the last few years seemed like pulling teeth.  These blowouts are just so much fun as everyone seems to be doing well and the wins are piling up.  Keep it going guys.  You have us watching.

I know there is no way to quantify this statement, no new found stat or anything.  But it could be that with Falvey gone the Twins have a new Culture in the clubhouse??  Let's hope this can keep up for the season.  

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, TL said:

Strange thing is that Buxton and Keaschall have underperformed so far (against all these left handers) and they are still winning. That bodes well for when some of the others cool off and Buxton/Keaschall’s numbers start to normalize. 

Interesting point!

[The Great Hambino]

Congrats to Buxton becoming the all-time Target Field home run king.

But I gotta be honest:  thinking back to the early days of Target Field, I'm kinda surprised it's not Jose Bautista

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

We have been in almost every game this season. My gut told me that we'd have a good series against DET, TOR & BOS. After the Skubal/ Ober victory with the bats coming alive, I stated we could go 10-0. Right now, we should be 8-0. There were doubters entering this BOS series. After this game, I hope we have more believers. 

For years, I have been pessimistic about the Twins, even though they've looked good on paper. After the big sell-off of most of the Twins' impact players, I had all but given up on the Twins, even lost all interest in the Twins' prospects. All this changed when Falvey left with all his puppets. Twins weren't disappointing because they didn't have enough money (although, Falvey convinced many that it was so). They were disappointing because Falvey adopted a cheap version of the NYY model. Where defense, baserunning, offense SOs & fundamentals were insignificant. HRs were the only thing that was important. Players' evaluation & development were based entirely on wierd analytics & FA is the team's savior. Instead of being a better version of MIL/ CLE's model which is the mirror opposite of NYY.

The best offseason move was the removal of Falvey. We have a new Pohlad, new Business Opps, new Baseball Opps, new manager, many new coaches, many new young & veteran players; it takes time to gel. My hope is for Shelton to throw away the old playbook & Zoll to unlearn all that he learned under Falvey's mentorship & draw from his time in LAD. Even though we look much worse on paper now than before. Now, I'm looking into the future with much more optimism. Tom Polhad is doing the best he can under the conditions. I encourage every Twins fan to go out & support our Twins (they are our baseball team) & stop misguidingly boycotting the Pohlads by not going out to do so.

I've been absent from participating on TD for months, because I was unfortunately blocked in Brazil.

I didn't quite follow the Brazil aspect but I think I 100% agree. In fairness, I think Falvey made some really good trades.  Drafts?  Meh.  Developed power arms?  Yes.  But the whole approach between him and Rocco - win or lose - was never 'fun' baseball to watch. I know this won't continue but I lost much interest in the home run or strikeout approach.... and a starter can't go more than 4 2/3.

great post 

[arby58]

32 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seems like a lack of context to me.

Rocco had Stewart - Jax - Varland - Duran ……. with Topa - Sands - Coulombe - Funderburk.

This year’s PEN is truly mediocre and NOT a strength, regardless of Team’s record to date. Hence, any Manager would try to avoid using that group and certainly they wouldn’t “overuse” them.

OTOH, Rocco had Ryan AND Lopez at the top of the rotation. Shelton has let Taj Bradley throw 92, 100, 104, and 106 pitches in his four starts. For context, the Twins had a starting pitcher throw 100 pitches in 28 of 162 games last year (17%). They've already done it 6 times in 17 games (35%). Even with big leads, Rocco had a quick hook, Shelton not so much.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

The decisions regarding Jeffers will be difficult... Ryan not so much. He's still under control through next year. They have the luxury of a couple more decision points with him.

Joe Ryan is going to earn $20MM in arbitration next year under the current CBA and what just happened with Skubal. The Twins have lost an enormous amount of leverage in negotiations if they were to pursue them because Ryan is going to earn a ton in arbitration now.

Freddy Peralta will be a good one to watch to compare with Joe Ryan assuming the 2027 season happens. Right now, Peralta is asking for 7-8 years on his next contract.

I think Jose Berrios' 7 year $131MM extension for Ryan would be ballpark-ish at this point after the Skubal decision. Maybe a little higher AAV now that it's 5 years later.

[bean5302]

22 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Congrats to Buxton becoming the all-time Target Field home run king.

But I gotta be honest:  thinking back to the early days of Target Field, I'm kinda surprised it's not Jose Bautista

I'd bet it was Dozier. That short left field corner was where he lived for a few years.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Salvador Perez is in third place for the most home runs in Target field with 23.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've been absent from participating on TD for months, because I was unfortunately blocked in Brazil.

 

[bunsen82]

19 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Was thinking the same thing about Lewis.  He is a Boras client but maybe a Buxton-type deal?

If you want a hot take,  in his current form Lewis is not an asset to the team.  The defense is subpar,  the hitting is predicated on hitting home runs.  There are way too many empty at bats.  As bad as Lee has been at short,  some of Lewis's throws have left me the same way about Lewis at 3rd.  

[stringer bell]

I said before the first pitch of the season that the team as composed should do well against left handed pitching and they proceeded to struggle mightily against decent, but not elite, left handed pitching. Now against elite left handed starting pitching, they have knocked out Skubal, Framber Valdez and Crochet. They also hit around two other lesser lefties.

The key to their success vs. left handed pitching has been the switch hitters. Caratini has been their first baseman vs. lefties and his slash line (against LHP) is .438/.391/.829. Bell, who was dreadful last year vs. southpaws is .324/.433/.757 and Lee is .333/.560/.893. Most switch hitters are stronger from the left side because they see so many more right handers. That hasn't been the case for the 2026 Twins.

The team offensive numbers are shocking considering where this team was last year and how they started this year. They are within a few runs of leading all of MLB in runs scored (Twins have scored 92, leaders have 95), they are tied for second in homers despite their top HR guys having only 3. Their splits with the bases loaded, runners on, runners in scoring position are among the best in baseball. Finally, they've hit a lot of three-run homers and a grand slam.

If, and it's a huge if, they can continue to score like this through the All-Star break, one commodity that is pretty easily attainable is relief pitching, especially guys in their free agent walk year. That is getting about three months ahead of the game, but we can dream can't we?