Why Josh Bell’s Poor Defense Isn’t Something to Worry About

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

When the Twins signed Josh Bell, it was easy to shrug. This is not the kind of move that lights up the timeline or changes preseason projections overnight. Bell is a veteran switch-hitting first baseman on his fourth team in three years, and defensive metrics have not been kind to him. If you stop there, it is fair to wonder why the Twins would invest in a bat-first player at a position where defense has quietly become one of their biggest strengths. But this front office has earned a bit of trust when it comes to first base defense, and the way the Twins play the position goes a long way toward explaining why Josh Bell’s glove is not something to panic about.

Over the past two seasons, the Twins have done some of their best defensive work at the cold corner, not because they suddenly discovered elite athletes, but because they found a way to simplify the job. Against left-handed hitters, in particular, the Twins have leaned heavily into aggressive positioning. The first baseman plays right on top of the line, and the second baseman shades over next to him. The goal is straightforward: Take away the pull-side ground balls that left-handed hitters most often produce, and reduce the amount of ground the first baseman has to cover.

Carlos Santana is a clear example of how much this approach can matter. Santana had always been a solid defender, but he was not a perennial Gold Glove threat. In 2023 with Cleveland, he played close to the line against left-handed hitters 29% of the time. The result was a respectable but unspectacular -2 outs above average against lefties.

In 2024 with the Twins, that number jumped dramatically. Santana played close to the line 53% of the time. With fewer balls sneaking down the line and less lateral ground to cover, Santana posted an impressive 13 outs above average against left-handed hitters. His athleticism and instincts mattered, but the positioning mattered just as much, and it was a major factor in Santana taking his defense to another level and ultimately winning a Gold Glove. The Twins put him in spots where he could succeed.

They doubled down on that idea last season with Ty France, and the results were even more striking. In 2024, before joining the Twins, France played close to the line against left-handed hitters only 34 percent of the time and finished with -8 outs above average. After arriving in Minnesota in 2025, that number jumped to 86 percent. Suddenly, the same player with the same physical limitations turned into a plus defender, posting 7 outs above average. That shift in positioning played a significant role in France’s defensive turnaround and helped lead to him winning a Gold Glove, as well. The Twins did not make France faster or more agile. They made his job easier.

That context matters when talking about Josh Bell. There's no way around it. Bell is not a good defensive first baseman. He is tall, thickly built, and slow-moving. He does not have great range, and the advanced metrics reflect that. Over the past three seasons, Bell has posted -2, -7, and -4 outs above average at first base. On a neutral team with neutral positioning, that is exactly the kind of profile that scares people off.

But Bell’s usage against left-handed hitters suggests there is real room for improvement. From 2023 through 2025, Bell logged 231 defensive chances at first base against lefties. Of those, he played close to the line just 41 percent of the time. On those plays, he posted -9 outs above average. That is bad, but it also shows how rarely his teams committed to hiding his weaknesses.

Compare that to what the Twins did with Santana and France, and the opportunity becomes obvious. Minnesota has shown a willingness to push that close-to-the-line rate north of 50 percent and even into the mid-80s, when the situation calls for it. If Bell’s alignment against left-handed hitters jumps anywhere near those levels, he will simply be asked to do less. Fewer hard grounders will sneak past him down the line, and fewer balls will require him to range deep into the hole.

This is not about turning Josh Bell into a Gold Glove defender. That is not happening. It's about getting him closer to average by removing the plays he is least equipped to make. Bell does not need to be special defensively for this signing to work. He needs to catch what is hit at him, scoop throws in the dirt, and avoid being a liability. The Twins have already shown they know how to do that with players at this position.

Ultimately, this signing is a bet on offense first. The Twins’ lineup badly needs quality at-bats, and first base has been a problem area for far too long. Outside of a couple of strong months from Carlos Santana in 2023, production from the position has been inconsistent at best. Bell brings switch-hitting power and a track record of getting on base, even if the peaks have been less frequent in recent years.

Choosing a bat-first first baseman over a glove-first option makes sense, given where this roster is right now. The Twins do not need to win games 2-1. They need to score runs. If positioning can turn Josh Bell from a below-average defender into something closer to playable, the overall value equation starts to tilt in Minnesota’s favor.

Bell is not a perfect player, and this is not a perfect signing. But the Twins have a clear blueprint for maximizing first base defense, and it has worked with multiple players who came with similar questions. If they follow that same playbook here, Bell’s glove should not overshadow what he is actually here to do.

---

What do you think? Are you worried about Josh Bell’s defense, or do you trust the Twins to work their positioning magic again? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

View full article

[Dman]

Nice analysis!  If that is the case then this signing looks somewhat better.

[farmerguychris]

Good article.  I know a lot of people don't like 'analytics', but this is exactly why they should play a role in today's MLB.  I'm liking this signing even more after this article.

[KirbyDome89]

France and in particular Santana weren't anywhere close to the disaster that Bell is defensively when the Twins signed them.

France played at least half of 2024 with a fractured heel too, that should be mentioned when talking about his defensive numbers that season. He absolutely did not play last season with the same physical limitations as he did in 2024, and his career numbers reflect that. 

Hiding Bell sounds great in theory, but that also requires the shoveling part of his workload onto a middle infield that's already stretched defensively. At some point Bell is going to have to range to his right as well. If the Twins are serious about playing Bell in the field (I don't think they necessarily are) he's going to get exposed. I just don't think you can hide such a poor defender, regardless of placement. 

[jmlease1]

It'll very interesting to see if the Twins are able to improve Bell's defense through positioning and how much impact that has on him. They also have the option of bringing Clemens (who appears to be a fine defender with very good range at 1B) as a late inning replacement as needed, depending on the situation. But if they're able to help Bell out, that would be impressive. (Probably still won't convince some people around here that they care about defense, though, or coach it)

If Bell hits like he did the second half and shows modest improvement defensively, this signing could work out quite nicely. There's some risk, especially if Bell's implosion against LHP in 2025 is for real and not a fluky small sample size thing, but there are few sure things in the aisles the Twins ownership has them shopping in.

[howeda7]

I'm still worried...

[chpettit19]

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics.

Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go.

Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2

Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4

Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10.

I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.

[D.C Twins]

Somebody alert Matthew Taylor..... Derek Flavey has hacked his TD account!!!!!

[Vanimal46]

If it’s that easy to scheme anyone into being a passable 1B, why haven’t we moved any of our 45 corner OF players to that spot? 

[DJL44]

More articles about how the 3rd highest paid player on the team isn't so bad if you hide him in the lineup and in the field.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

More articles about how the 3rd highest paid player on the team isn't so bad if you hide him in the lineup and in the field.

Geezo beezo. I hadn't really thought about this. Really? He's the third highest paid player? 

[mikelink45]

Let's see - who handles every ground out?  Who covers for pulled balls down the line?  Who has to handle pick off plays?  Don't try to sell me on the idea that a first baseman's glove is not important.  

I love an article in Umpire Bible - "Adding up all of the putouts made at first base (1,754,733), we see that these account for 27.5% of all putouts, nearly a third, outpacing the next most frequent, strikeouts, and the third most frequent, catches in center fielder."  https://www.umpirebible.com/ubBlog/archives/101

 

[RpR]

The Twins did not improve or ruin any one, they did either themselves.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric?...

OAA is unstable. If Josh Bell had stood in the middle of Center Field for every play (assuming the rules allowed it), he'd have an OAA of 0.0 because he was not in a position to make any plays for a 1B.

DRS is also unstable because it overcompensates for fringe plays. Get to a ball at the edge of a section of the field a 1B doesn't normally get to? DRS x1000 points! Play the rest of the year booting balls around the field, you wind up with a neutral score.

The Twins manipulate a bad metric (OAA) by positioning their 1B in a spot where they couldn't be expected to get to balls. If they positioned their 1B in a more traditional position, the 1B would have more opportunities to make plays, but since a poor defender wouldn't make them, their OAA score would drop.

That's my read on it.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Geezo beezo. I hadn't really thought about this. Really? He's the third highest paid player? 

technically? Arbitration players haven't settled yet and you have to assume Jeffers, Ryan, and Ober pass him.

[dxpavelka]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics.

Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go.

Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2

Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4

Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10.

I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.

Santana and France didn't SUDDENLY become Gold Glove defenders.  But they DID become Gold Glove winners.  And as far as improving metrics by standing in a different place, if that also means improved performance / productivity, seems like that would be a wise thing to do.

[Woof Bronzer]

If it's that easy to turn someone into a good defensive 1B, why has Falvey literally never developed a MLB 1B?

If it's that easy to turn someone into a good defensive 1B then the Bell move is extra terrible.  The Twins should just put Wallner or Larnach or any of their 17 outfielders there and save the $7m for bullpen help.  Or put one of the kids there to give them MLB at bats.  

[Woof Bronzer]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics.

Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go.

Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2

Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4

Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10.

I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.

Is this actually a thing?  The Twins put time and effort into manipulating defensive stats?  For what purpose?  

[MGX]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics.

Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go.

Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2

Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4

Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10.

I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.

I'm not challenging this just an honest question - how & why would a team manipulate OAA?

Overall, I agree that we still need to concerned with Bell's defense though I think he'll see some time at DH & will be removed late in games for D. Playing your 2B out of position to help your 1B doesn't improve overall team D even if it helps the 1B. Especially, when you have a young 2B still learning his position.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

technically? Arbitration players haven't settled yet and you have to assume Jeffers, Ryan, and Ober pass him.

It would also depend on if you count the mutual option buyout as part of this year or next year.

Speaking of technicalities, Carlos Correa will be their third highest-paid player

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics.

Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go.

Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2

Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4

Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10.

I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.

Range Ratings are like Plastic. 

They are in everything. I'd really like to dispose of it but it's just piling up everywhere. 

The majority of plays are routine and this is causes a overweighting of small sample volatility. It causes the year to year swings that you perfectly illustrate for all to see... yet unquestioned by so many. 

This plastic is in WAR. 

To quote Radiohead. It wears me out... it wears me out. 

 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

technically? Arbitration players haven't settled yet and you have to assume Jeffers, Ryan, and Ober pass him.

The arbitration projections for each of them is less than the $7M they gave Josh Bell.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

Speaking of technicalities, Carlos Correa will be their third highest-paid player

Correa is the highest paid player who isn't actually on the Twins. Bell is the 3rd highest paid Twin.

[USAFChief]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics.

Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go.

Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2

Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4

Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10.

I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.

This is exactly correct.

Moving Josh Bell closer to the line doesnt change his ability to play defense.

 

 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

My thoughts are Bell's best position is still DH.  Now that he is signed, one or both of Larnach and Wallner need to be traded.  Three defensively challenge players on your roster makes no sense to me.  Martin and Roden are much better defensively.  Behind them are the 3 young outfielders (Jenkins, Rodriquez and Gonzalez).  Neither Larnach nor Wallner have shown enough with the bat to offset their defense.  If viable bullpen upgrade can be obtained for them, move them.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

My thoughts are Bell's best position is still DH.  Now that he is signed, one or both of Larnach and Wallner need to be traded.  Three defensively challenge players on your roster makes no sense to me.  Martin and Roden are much better defensively.  Behind them are the 3 young outfielders (Jenkins, Rodriquez and Gonzalez).  Neither Larnach nor Wallner have shown enough with the bat to offset their defense.  If viable bullpen upgrade can be obtained for them, move them.

If this team is going to trade someone, they should trade the oldest and most expensive player and keep the youngest and cheapest player. That means they should solve the DH conflict by trading Josh Bell.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Santana and France didn't SUDDENLY become Gold Glove defenders.  But they DID become Gold Glove winners.  And as far as improving metrics by standing in a different place, if that also means improved performance / productivity, seems like that would be a wise thing to do.

It doesn't. That's the point. They moved them closer to the line so there are fewer balls to their right that the algorithm expects them to get to. They aren't improving performance, they're limiting the expectations. Guard the line and get to the base quickly for throws. They've cut down on the amount of ground they're asking their 1B to cover and the algorithms spit out drastically different data because of it.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Is this actually a thing?  The Twins put time and effort into manipulating defensive stats?  For what purpose?  

I maybe shouldn't have used "manipulate." I don't think they're doing things on purpose to get better OAA numbers for their guys, it's just a byproduct of moving their 1B closer to the line. The algorithm doesn't expect them to get to as many balls to their right because they're further away so they have fewer negative marks. 

What they've done is lower their ask for 1B. Just guard the line and catch throws. Much harder to go negative when the space you're asked to cover is smaller.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, MGX said:

I'm not challenging this just an honest question - how & why would a team manipulate OAA?

Overall, I agree that we still need to concerned with Bell's defense though I think he'll see some time at DH & will be removed late in games for D. Playing your 2B out of position to help your 1B doesn't improve overall team D even if it helps the 1B. Especially, when you have a young 2B still learning his position.

Manipulate maybe wasn't the best word to use. They aren't trying to trick the system, that's just the result of asking their 1B to do less than other teams. If you have your guy playing on the line 80+% of the time you aren't asking him to get to balls in the hole 80+% of the time. That throws off the algorithm because there are fewer chances for a player to go negative when they're not asked to cover as much ground.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I maybe shouldn't have used "manipulate." I don't think they're doing things on purpose to get better OAA numbers for their guys, it's just a byproduct of moving their 1B closer to the line. The algorithm doesn't expect them to get to as many balls to their right because they're further away so they have fewer negative marks. 

What they've done is lower their ask for 1B. Just guard the line and catch throws. Much harder to go negative when the space you're asked to cover is smaller.

Thanks for the explanation, I had no idea defensive analytics were that silly.