What to Make of the Minnesota Twins' 82-Win Projection from FanGraphs?

[tony&rodney]

All the discussion of trading our three best players is a downer, for sure. What needs to be remembered is that the team was abysmal from the All Star Break through the end of the year and the team had better than average luck in terms of injuries. Ironically, the team was more fun to watch from mid August through September than it was from April to the All Star break save for a two weeks.

Thus, an evaluation needed to be made of the roster and not all hope can be dumped on fab campaigns from Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Culpepper, and a half dozen inexperienced pitchers. A roster that is slow and defensively challenged needs some adjustments. Just one example - if Wallner is an important bat put him at DH only and part with those guys who are also DH's, like Julien and Larnach. There are opportunities to trade. We have seen big trades (Rangers-Mets) and smaller trades (Red Sox-Pirates) already this offseason. Possibilities exist that do not include losing Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez. 

[Riverbrian]

34 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I really want to believe this.  But logic keeps getting in the way.  How does worst team in baseball + a few scrap heap pickups (in the best case scenario)OR a further selloff as is being rumored = "closer than almost everybody thinks"?  I just don't understand.  I can see a healthier Lopez being worth a few more wins...otherwise what could be different about 26 than in 25?  Doesn't this feel like doing the same thing and expecting different results?

Help me understand, o wise one!

I'll try but I strongly recommend not betting the house, car, wife and kids on it because they got distance to travel. 

If you really want to believe this or at least get to where I am.

The first thing that you need to do is be comfortable with being uncomfortable with name recognition. Pete Alonso is not coming to save us. 

The second thing that you need to do is take a hard look at the performance of players on the other 29 teams and take note of the performance of young players. Take note of how they compare to the veterens on the roster. You will find a lot of failure or small sample failure but you will see the success stories and more importantly... You will find a lot of young players who were at least average with room to grow. Players that performed on par with vets that other teams are spending 10 million on. If you look at the Rockies... Hunter Goodman will be noticeable. Even Jordan Beck while not amazing in total didn't kill the club and performed better than McMahon. If you look at the Marlins... you'll see Agustin Ramirez, Jakob Marsee and other with potential. The A's... have tons of young talent. The Red Sox... relied on youth last year and they are not all Keith Law darlings.  

If the Twins front office and manager commit to just stop attempting to temporarily plug holes with players that won't be back the following year and fully commit to filling the holes longer term by flooding youth through the filter. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we find players with offense and defense that fill some of the holes and this could start to show by the trade deadline. If you find enough talent... you can reassess at the deadline and reassess at the end of the year and maybe the holes have concentrated down to a couple of key spots and then you can fish for bigger free agents strategically and the money will be there because you are doing this with players making the minimum. 

Whatever happens... happens in 2026. But, Yeah... it can be done. I believe it. 

[Doc Lenz]

 Vegas has o/u wins at 71.5. They are more reliable. 

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What does a viable late inning reliever look like? The Mariners had a long stretch of trading away their late inning relievers including Sewald their closer in a year they were buyers. The Brewers trade away their late inning relievers as they become expensive. Neither sign established viable late inning relievers. The Guardians don’t sign viable late inning relievers.

Look at their projected bullpens. All 24 of these players were acquired in prospects in trade or waiver claims or DFA pick ups or low draft choices or  minor league free agents signings or minor trades. They do not use any prospect resources or free agent dollars to build their pens. There is one player of the 24 with a significant contract in Munoz and his AAV of 7 million. I should not that Clase comes in next with a 5 year 20 million dollar contract (AAV of 4 million) though he is not on the projected roster.

Maybe this is how the Guardians, Mariners and Brewers do it. They gather a bunch of good inexpensive arms and it works itself out.

I think we all understand that this is what the Twins are trying to do. Assuming they can just snap their fingers and materialize a bullpen out of thin air after trading all the relievers they'd developed through this approach is the problem. To the extent that any team would be able to do so, Minnesota has not proven to have the chops of an org like Tampa or Cleveland in that regard. 

I can definitely envision the Twins eventually developing a solid bullpen through this method. But in 2026? Massive stretch.

58 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Once again... you knock it out of the park. 

A closer is created by giving someone the closer role. Yes they need to get the job done but Duran was created by giving him the closer role. We didn't need to spend 16 million for a year of Kenley Jansen. 

The Twins don't have a Jhoan Duran caliber arm in their organization right now. Also, they traded for him in 2018 and it took 4 years for him to reach the majors. This is the issue I'm talking about, it seems like there is a complete lack of realism with timelines and track record when people talk aspirationally about building a relief corps.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's hard to feel optimistic given everything that has transpired. 

I wouldn't even call my statement "Closer than we think" optimism in itself... it's just going to sound optimistic when it is placed next to the general overall feeling that most of us are holding right now. 

But I believe... at worst... there is nowhere to go but up and at best... if the Twins do this right and put every ounce of energy into finding young offensive talent we can find a decent offensive team with some athleticism from players hungry to prove themselves and it may partially reveal itself by the all-star break if not sooner. I'm simply not afraid of youth. 

When it comes to doing this right. I'm not afraid of youth but not all of it is going to pan out... some may struggle hard so if the Twins take the approach of running multiple options through. They'll find offensive talent because they will find players who exceed expectation along with some that disappoint and they can adjust accordingly. It's all about the accumulation of talent and the commitment to let it grow. Martin, Roden and Outman are going to let us know and the options behind them are breathing down their necks. We just gotta find the answer for SS and 1B so we can provide sufficient numbers to run through the infield positions and pressure Lewis and Lee so they can't suck the life out of the team with .600 OPS performance. 

It won't take much to reach the level of the past two years. Offense has been our primary problem, station to station averageness on offense has been our primary problem. We have the chance to do some things on the bases now, we have higher ceilings to utilize and strive for potenially greater than the Ty France plug in's. 23rd in runs scored isn't a high bar to clear. We have the chance now to not only match it but exceed it.  

I like our starting pitching depth. I know it doesn't excite some but I like the depth and potential of it. I think Matthews, Bradley and Abel are live impressive arms. I think you can even move Ryan and the starting pitching can still keep us in ball games.    

I have no answer for the bullpen because it was completely destroyed other than saying a bullpen can be built from multiple directions and be functional. It doesn't have to be the best in baseball... it can be average. and the team can survive. However... If you look at the best bullpens in baseball by actual performance. They consist of a lot of "who are these guys". They don't all look like the Padres with names we have heard of. This is where I'd like to see the Twins spend some money and add some converted young starters with some gas and get a couple of trade throw in's and maybe... just maybe... it won't be the Hatch nightmare post deadline.    

How would the Twins front office do this wrong? Make this take longer and the nagging thought that I worry about? They will do it wrong by continuing the practice of trying to Frankenstein things together. They need to run 26 players full speed at the problem at all times. They will do it wrong by wasting 26 man roster space on specialists thinking that they are a late pinch running guy away from winning ball games instead of running 26 players full speed at the problem. They will do it wrong thinking that they can make a platoon combo out of Roden and Martin to Frankenstein things together because you will just kill the development of both as you continue the practice of strip mining your prospects for parts.

The front office can flat out F this up by thinking that they... the front office can fix this with math. Instead of letting the players fix it by demonstrating that they want major league jobs. The front office just needs to go on a talent accumulation quest, flood this thing with options and get out of the way and let the success failure ratio fix it.  

 

Your key word " HUNGRY  " , thats one thing under Rocco i never saw ...

Hungry needs to return under shelton , current players should know that there are prospects that are hungry to take their jobs away  ...

Someone needs to light the fire and get cooking ...

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins don't have a Jhoan Duran caliber arm in their organization right now.

Not many teams do. But, do we have to have a Jhoan Duran caliber arm? His arm is pretty special. 

How about a good arm? We can't find that? 

Ronny Henriquez tossed 79 innings last year struck out 98. 1.10 WHIP. Griffin Jax had a rough first year as a starter and almost immediate success in the bullpen the following year. 

Is it going to be easy or perfect? I would think not because they completely tore the thing apart at the deadline and have a subsequent long way to go especially once the injuries start happening but bullpens are built in surprising ways and they contain names that nobody has ever talked about.    

 

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's hard to feel optimistic given everything that has transpired. 

I wouldn't even call my statement "Closer than we think" optimism in itself... it's just going to sound optimistic when it is placed next to the general overall feeling that most of us are holding right now. 

But I believe... at worst... there is nowhere to go but up and at best... if the Twins do this right and put every ounce of energy into finding young offensive talent we can find a decent offensive team with some athleticism from players hungry to prove themselves and it may partially reveal itself by the all-star break if not sooner. I'm simply not afraid of youth. 

When it comes to doing this right. I'm not afraid of youth but not all of it is going to pan out... some may struggle hard so if the Twins take the approach of running multiple options through. They'll find offensive talent because they will find players who exceed expectation along with some that disappoint and they can adjust accordingly. It's all about the accumulation of talent and the commitment to let it grow. Martin, Roden and Outman are going to let us know and the options behind them are breathing down their necks. We just gotta find the answer for SS and 1B so we can provide sufficient numbers to run through the infield positions and pressure Lewis and Lee so they can't suck the life out of the team with .600 OPS performance. 

It won't take much to reach the level of the past two years. Offense has been our primary problem, station to station averageness on offense has been our primary problem. We have the chance to do some things on the bases now, we have higher ceilings to utilize and strive for potenially greater than the Ty France plug in's. 23rd in runs scored isn't a high bar to clear. We have the chance now to not only match it but exceed it.  

I like our starting pitching depth. I know it doesn't excite some but I like the depth and potential of it. I think Matthews, Bradley and Abel are live impressive arms. I think you can even move Ryan and the starting pitching can still keep us in ball games.    

I have no answer for the bullpen because it was completely destroyed other than saying a bullpen can be built from multiple directions and be functional. It doesn't have to be the best in baseball... it can be average. and the team can survive. However... If you look at the best bullpens in baseball by actual performance. They consist of a lot of "who are these guys". They don't all look like the Padres with names we have heard of. This is where I'd like to see the Twins spend some money and add some converted young starters with some gas and get a couple of trade throw in's and maybe... just maybe... it won't be the Hatch nightmare post deadline.    

How would the Twins front office do this wrong? Make this take longer and the nagging thought that I worry about? They will do it wrong by continuing the practice of trying to Frankenstein things together. They need to run 26 players full speed at the problem at all times. They will do it wrong by wasting 26 man roster space on specialists thinking that they are a late pinch running guy away from winning ball games instead of running 26 players full speed at the problem. They will do it wrong thinking that they can make a platoon combo out of Roden and Martin to Frankenstein things together because you will just kill the development of both as you continue the practice of strip mining your prospects for parts.

The front office can flat out F this up by thinking that they... the front office can fix this with math. Instead of letting the players fix it by demonstrating that they want major league jobs. The front office just needs to go on a talent accumulation quest, flood this thing with options and get out of the way and let the success failure ratio fix it.  

 

Your key word " HUNGRY  " , thats one thing under Rocco i never saw ...

Hungry needs to return under shelton , current players should know that there are prospects that are hungry to take their jobs away  ...

Someone needs to light the fire and get cooking ...

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Your key word " HUNGRY  " , thats one thing under Rocco i never saw ...

Hungry needs to return under shelton , current players should know that there are prospects that are hungry to take their jobs away  ...

Someone needs to light the fire and get cooking ...

Exactly... We all saw it. The station to station thing that the team didn't have the offensive chops to pull off and from that I saw... there was job security in that approach and that was frustrating. Players laid up instead of laying out. 

Get some players hungry for a major league career. Have them come out with their hair on fire and let's see exactly who looks good with flames on their head and keep feeding it until you find it. 

[Nick Nelson]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Not many teams do. But, do we have to have a Jhoan Duran caliber arm? His arm is pretty special. 

How about a good arm? We can't find that? 

Ronny Henriquez tossed 79 innings last year struck out 98. 1.10 WHIP. Griffin Jax had a rough first year as a starter and almost immediate success in the bullpen the following year. 

Is it going to be easy or perfect? I would think not because they completely tore the thing apart at the deadline and have a subsequent long way to go especially once the injuries start happening but bullpens are built in surprising ways and they contain names that nobody has ever talked about.    

Jax and Duran are two of the biggest reliever transition success stories in recent franchise history. They both arrived in the bullpen in 2022 and were immediately good. But you know what? That Twins bullpen was still below-average overall.

This is the problem. Even if the Twins mega-hit on a couple of guys (Prielipp and Festa?) they still have so many innings to fill, and you know some of the transitions or low-wattage pickups are going to flop. If they'd kept just ONE of their core guys from last year I'd feel a lot better. Naming Henriquez is interesting since he's one of many examples of guys who couldn't get it to click until they left here. 

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, UK Twin said:

I actually think with good owners and FO we'd be in a really good place. A very good core group of players on relatively low salaries. A very low payroll combined with good owners would open the door for some really good additions to the team, either through free agency or trade. 

Sadly we have the complete opposite and will probably trade Ryan, Lopez and Buxton for random prospects or more Outman/Roden type players and crowds will crater to below 10,000 a game.

I think this is the far more likely scenario to be perfectly honest

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

That being said, I am more convinced than ever that there is a big blow up coming.  I do not expect to see Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, or Jeffers on the roster come Spring Training.

I tend to agree.  I don't think Ryan or Lopez will be on the roster come spring training and if the Athletic and it's "insider" Twin's source is correct, Buxton might get dealt as well.  My take is that the Pohlads know a work stoppage is coming 2027 and they have tons of debt piled on the team and are looking to slash payroll even further to pay it down even with the new limited partners. 

[stringer bell]

I fully expect that at least two of the four high-profile players (Jeffers, Buxton, Lopez, Ryan) will be traded and that the fangraphs analysis will then go down to a mid 70s projection. Honestly, if a real haul is obtained, I don't mind it. Buxton has been a good soldier, but if the team isn't going to contend for several years, he should get a chance to win a ring. There are several high end young guys who might actually be as good as Pablo or Joe in the coming years and Jeffers would be very likely to walk after this year with the Twins getting nothing back for his exit.

There isn't a team in the AL Central that has depth and salary flexibility to be a lock to be good next year or beyond. If things go right the Twins could contend soon. I do think it is a stretch to do so in 2026 because so much is up in the air, but beyond that there is opportunity (IMHO).

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Jax and Duran are two of the biggest reliever transition success stories in recent franchise history. They both arrived in the bullpen in 2022 and were immediately good. But you know what? That Twins bullpen was still below-average overall.

This is the problem. Even if the Twins mega-hit on a couple of guys (Prielipp and Festa?) they still have so many innings to fill, and you know some of the transitions or low-wattage pickups are going to flop. If they'd kept just ONE of their core guys from last year I'd feel a lot better. Naming Henriquez is interesting since he's one of many examples of guys who couldn't get it to click until they left here. 

Now you are closer to the overall problem and the mountain that needs to be climbed.

Who are this front office or maybe the manager himself betting on?

Duran and Jax are easy calls... they have nasty stuff... However... what about the not so easy calls of the big pile of players in the middle... can they find potential. I'm still pissed about Belisle over Anderson and I haven't forgiven them yet.   

Did Henriquez click in Miami at age 25 because the Marlins unlocked him or was he potentially already here in Minnesota at age 23 and 24? I don't know the answer to that but Henriquez wasn't a nightmare in his limited appearances with the Twins. They couldn't unlock it? Did they just feel safer with the Okert specialist type player or the Staumont and Jay Jackson's of the world thinking experience was the thing to bet on instead of potential?  

It's a bad look for a team scraping for talent to watch one come up big just one mere off-season after being let go. Was Ronny the better option all along? I don't know the answer to that but if you want to drag me off the last bit of optimism that I can supply and am trying to supply... that's how you can accomplish it. 

Can this front office/Manager identify players beyond the obvious Duran Jax type options and let them figure it out. I don't know the answer to that but other teams can and do.

This is where my doubt lies. There will be success and failures... maybe even more failures than successes.... probably more failures than success. But, as the season rolls along... players will step up... we can make some deals at the deadline... add to the pile... go through the same... address again in the off-season.  

We can make progress right now. I have a reason to get up tomorrow morning knowing that. There are a lot of big arm guys out there. Let's find them and run them up the flagpole. 

[Paved Paradise]

Assuming no major changes as this forecast does, I think it comes down to how well our younger players perform. There's a lot of work to be done with them given the lack of support from management over the last few years (lack of meaningful deadline deals in 23 & 24, tearing apart the bullpen in 25.) If management doesn't seem to care how well the team does, why should the players? 

[Dawgzilla]

Ahh.........no!  They will be about 74ish in wins.  Period!  No zest...no zeal....no excitement.....no plan......no budget...........no fans.  The ownership wants to lose money, not to mention fans, then blame it on either no interest or "small market" team.  Whatever!  O.K. Calvin Griffith.😉

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll try but I strongly recommend not betting the house, car, wife and kids on it because they got distance to travel. 

If you really want to believe this or at least get to where I am.

The first thing that you need to do is be comfortable with being uncomfortable with name recognition. Pete Alonso is not coming to save us. 

The second thing that you need to do is take a hard look at the performance of players on the other 29 teams and take note of the performance of young players. Take note of how they compare to the veterens on the roster. You will find a lot of failure or small sample failure but you will see the success stories and more importantly... You will find a lot of young players who were at least average with room to grow. Players that performed on par with vets that other teams are spending 10 million on. If you look at the Rockies... Hunter Goodman will be noticeable. Even Jordan Beck while not amazing in total didn't kill the club and performed better than McMahon. If you look at the Marlins... you'll see Agustin Ramirez, Jakob Marsee and other with potential. The A's... have tons of young talent. The Red Sox... relied on youth last year and they are not all Keith Law darlings.  

If the Twins front office and manager commit to just stop attempting to temporarily plug holes with players that won't be back the following year and fully commit to filling the holes longer term by flooding youth through the filter. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we find players with offense and defense that fill some of the holes and this could start to show by the trade deadline. If you find enough talent... you can reassess at the deadline and reassess at the end of the year and maybe the holes have concentrated down to a couple of key spots and then you can fish for bigger free agents strategically and the money will be there because you are doing this with players making the minimum. 

Whatever happens... happens in 2026. But, Yeah... it can be done. I believe it. 

I'm not going to bet the house either, RB. First, there's the issue that I don't tend to bet, and second, I don't think the HOA guidelines allow it. And NO WAY am I betting Mrs. IT. She's too awesome. The kids are amazing as well. We do have a 2004 Honda Accord that I'd consider. 

 

But I'm with you in saying I'm willing to bet some hope, or at least have some willingness to be in the boat with you. I'll nuance my take a little bit. I've liked how you've used Ty France as your archetype for the type of player you don't want them to sign, so I'll use that as well. 

• Starting pitcher: I feel really good about what's currently on the roster.
• Outfield: They've got Buxton. I like your analogy of flooding youth through the filter. I see Wallner, Larnach (both not fully youth, but not vets either), Martin, Roden, Outman, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Mendez, Jenkins and I think there's enough talent to flood through the filter to make a pretty solid, maybe even good to very good, outfield. I don't want them to sign a Ty France here (or a Michael A. Taylor). 
• 3B/SS/2B: They have started the flooding. They are still in the growing pains, but I'm willing to read something into a 1-1 draft pick playing something like 64 out of the final 66 games and doing so at something like 27 HR/29 SB pace (Lewis). I'm willing to put some stock in a rookie cranking out 2.0 bWAR in 49 games with an OPS+ of 128 (Keaschall). And yes, I'm willing to put some stock in a guy who hasn't yet turned 25, was very recently being seen as a Top 50 prospect and who was suddenly thrown into the fire as a full-timer at the toughest non-catcher spot (Lee). I haven't seen Culpepper, but folks on here seem ready to flood the filter with him as well. I wish there were a couple more guys to consider flooding so they could have the little more room for error that they do in the outfield, but I don't want them to sign a Ty France (or a Kyle Farmer). I want them to ride with these guys.
• 1B: Here's the primary place I slightly differ from you. I don't see Clemens and Julien as flooding the filter. I don't see others in the pipeline. I value 1B defense, particularly when the rest of the infield is so young. I agree that Pete Alonso isn't coming to save the day, but here's where I'd like to see them spend $5M and get this year's Carlos Santana to play great defense and bat 7th or so. I don't know who that is, but between Santana and France, they've found some guys.
• C: I like Jeffers getting more games and feel good about that. Instead of an every-other-day pattern, methodically give him two games out of three and that's a manageable 108 games. They aren't ready to flood the filter with Tait and the other guy that I can't remember. I would have liked to shoot a smidge higher than Jackson (think Victor Caratini at $3M), but I'm not sure they still couldn't. And if not, I'm okay with them trying to unleash something in Jackson and maybe stretching Jeffers to 120 games.
• Bullpen: The huge unknown. There's a small handful of guys in Sands, Topa, Orze and Funderburk to start with. There's a couple that have gotten coffee (Adams, Ohl). There seems to be a plan for some transitioning of starters. I don't think they are far from flooding the filter, but it takes a LOT of bodies to do this on the mound. I'd like to see them spend $10M on three relievers on one-year contracts (Coulombe is my archetype) to give some sense of stability, particularly at the beginning of the season. And probably some guys on minor league contracts. It may start the season as a 30th-percentile bullpen, but they've historically done a better job of improving the bullpen over the course of the season than people have given them credit for. If they can turn this into a 60th or 70th percentile bullpen with a rotation that's top notch, that's a pretty good overall staff.

I'm willing to take Falvey at his word that he's more interested in adding than subtracting. I did my upgrades with a very modest $15M-18M.

 

Is that a 95-win team for the season? No. Is that a 90-win team? Probably not. But is that a team that can play the first third of the season at 76 win pace, the second part at 83 win pace and the third part at 91 game pace and play meaningful games in September. I'm willing to believe it can be. 

And if it doesn't happen, this year's France at 1B and three relievers can still get something at the deadline that will supplement the rest of the flooding that has been happening as they further gear to 2027 when the only pieces on this entire page that they lose are Jeffers and the France/relievers quartet. Meanwhile, they've done a lot of that sorting you've been talking about, including a sorting out of owners, and are very well positioned for next offseason.

 

But yes, all that changes with a trade of both starters and Buxton.*

 

(I actually think they can withstand trading ONE of the starters as long as they get MLB talent back. And by MLB talent, I don't mean another MLB-"ready" talent like Jenkins. I mean two actual major leaguers who will be locked in at 1B and a bullpen spot on Opening Day, for example. If nobody offers that, no can do.)   

[DJL44]

I believe this is true, correct me if I'm wrong, but these projections are for rosters as-is, which basically means the Twins could finish 82-80 if all the free agents on the market retire. As the free agent talent gets allocated to other teams that 82-win projection will drop.

I think the other thing adding helium to the Twins win total is the division they play in. They play a lot of games against the weak AL Central.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

I’ll take 82 wins!! It’s winning record!!! Remember we are a small town team that isn’t supposed to beat the big city tea]ms!!! Also secret ownership group is former twins players. Can’t wait for new season!!! Let’s go twins!!!

I will be happy if they win both the Dodgers and Yankee series.

[Nick Nelson]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I believe this is true, correct me if I'm wrong, but these projections are for rosters as-is, which basically means the Twins could finish 82-80 if all the free agents on the market retire. As the free agent talent gets allocated to other teams that 82-win projection will drop.

I think the other thing adding helium to the Twins win total is the division they play in. They play a lot of games against the weak AL Central.

Right, that's the point made under the third header in the article. If you buy into the framing from these projections, then it's going to be all the more irritating to watch a bunch of similarly talented teams blast past the Twins by making moves this offseason while MN stands pat or subtracts.

[KBJ1]

What did we actually get for all the trades we made? A couple of no name outfielders,  3 pitchers, none of whom are likely to be an ace. The only player I like is the young catcher, but he is only 18 and 3 years away at least. If you are trading top flyte players players like Buxton, Lopez, Ryan you have to get 2 bona fide good chance to be a star players in return. Otherwise, why are you doing it? Trading a star for "gee I hope the guy we get might someday be as good" makes zero sense. You trade a star when you already have someone as good or better to replace him, not the other way round.

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll try but I strongly recommend not betting the house, car, wife and kids on it because they got distance to travel. 

If you really want to believe this or at least get to where I am.

The first thing that you need to do is be comfortable with being uncomfortable with name recognition. Pete Alonso is not coming to save us. 

The second thing that you need to do is take a hard look at the performance of players on the other 29 teams and take note of the performance of young players. Take note of how they compare to the veterens on the roster. You will find a lot of failure or small sample failure but you will see the success stories and more importantly... You will find a lot of young players who were at least average with room to grow. Players that performed on par with vets that other teams are spending 10 million on. If you look at the Rockies... Hunter Goodman will be noticeable. Even Jordan Beck while not amazing in total didn't kill the club and performed better than McMahon. If you look at the Marlins... you'll see Agustin Ramirez, Jakob Marsee and other with potential. The A's... have tons of young talent. The Red Sox... relied on youth last year and they are not all Keith Law darlings.  

If the Twins front office and manager commit to just stop attempting to temporarily plug holes with players that won't be back the following year and fully commit to filling the holes longer term by flooding youth through the filter. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we find players with offense and defense that fill some of the holes and this could start to show by the trade deadline. If you find enough talent... you can reassess at the deadline and reassess at the end of the year and maybe the holes have concentrated down to a couple of key spots and then you can fish for bigger free agents strategically and the money will be there because you are doing this with players making the minimum. 

Whatever happens... happens in 2026. But, Yeah... it can be done. I believe it. 

Appreciate it.  I don't know that I can get there, but I respect that you can.  There is a path, that is very much true.  I'm trying to be less cynical these days.  But yep, I will not be placing World Series bets on the 26 Twins either!

[Patzky]

"Source": Buxton, Lopez and Ryan will not be traded before the start of the season.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Patzky said:

"Source": Buxton, Lopez and Ryan will not be traded before the start of the season.

This has already been stated on several previous occasions. The real problem remains .... the current roster, which played at a .333 clip after the All Star Game. There needs to be some changes and it does not need to involve any of Lopez, Buxton, or Ryan. The team that is currently rostered, from a post somewhere on TD, is at 71.5 wins in Las Vegas. I don't gamble so this is more or less meaningless to me. However, Vegas seldom loses money. What changes do people propose? 

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

This has already been stated on several previous occasions. The real problem remains .... the current roster, which played at a .333 clip after the All Star Game. There needs to be some changes and it does not need to involve any of Lopez, Buxton, or Ryan. The team that is currently rostered, from a post somewhere on TD, is at 71.5 wins in Las Vegas. I don't gamble so this is more or less meaningless to me. However, Vegas seldom loses money. What changes do people propose? 

Would part of the Vegas line be the expectation that the Twins were likely to trade from the core?

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, UK Twin said:

I actually think with good owners and FO we'd be in a really good place. A very good core group of players on relatively low salaries. A very low payroll combined with good owners would open the door for some really good additions to the team, either through free agency or trade. 

Sadly we have the complete opposite and will probably trade Ryan, Lopez and Buxton for random prospects or more Outman/Roden type players and crowds will crater to below 10,000 a game.

That front office built this core you like, so I'm very confused. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Patzky said:

"Source": Buxton, Lopez and Ryan will not be traded before the start of the season.

Then they better add two hitters to this putrid offense. 

[Twinsrtheworst]

I do not anticipate Ryan, Burton, Lopez being traded anytime before the deadline and even then, so many things would have to go wrong to lead to such a trade.  It seams a lot of TD voice a pessimistic outlook, then describe how to make that outlook become a reality by  suggesting/hoping the trading of the above 3, fire the FO, get a new owner.  What many don’t understand is doing these 3 things, in one seasons no less will lead to a lengthy rebuild, unwatchable baseball, a LOWER payroll, empty seats, multiple stops/restarts and lower payroll again.  So basically it leads to what so many of us including myself do not want to see.  You can’t advocate for trading our higher paid stars and then be angry at ownership and front office for being cheap, at least not logically. Yes, I do believe we will add, and it is not blind hope.  It is based on logic and conversations.  Will we add enough? Will it work?  I do not know the outcome, but the plan will be to add and improve in 2026.  Many are threatening to not attend or watch a Twins game until they get what they think they want…new owners, new players, new front office. Most owners will only slash payroll to ensure a profit. So to each there own, predict the demise, then explain how to achieve said demise and then be outraged when demise is achieved. A slippery slope for sure. New does not equal better, it equals different.  Yes it has been 2 seasons of non playoff baseball.  I’ve seen much longer stretches and I want that stretch to end in 2026.  All of this to say, yes this is MyTeam and I look forward to the ups and downs of next season.  To not attend games or watch the Twins would hurt me and the product more than it affects the owners and powers that be.  If the goal is to watch only World Series Twins baseball, well it could be a long wait and made longer.  Downvote me, or whatever.  To those that love Twins baseball, don’t give up.  I assure you better days are ahead.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, se7799 said:

I do not anticipate Ryan, Burton, Lopez being traded anytime before the deadline and even then, so many things would have to go wrong to lead to such a trade.  It seams a lot of TD voice a pessimistic outlook, then describe how to make that outlook become a reality by  suggesting/hoping the trading of the above 3, fire the FO, get a new owner.  What many don’t understand is doing these 3 things, in one seasons no less will lead to a lengthy rebuild, unwatchable baseball, a LOWER payroll, empty seats, multiple stops/restarts and lower payroll again.  So basically it leads to what so many of us including myself do not want to see.  You can’t advocate for trading our higher paid stars and then be angry at ownership and front office for being cheap, at least not logically. Yes, I do believe we will add, and it is not blind hope.  It is based on logic and conversations.  Will we add enough? Will it work?  I do not know the outcome, but the plan will be to add and improve in 2026.  Many are threatening to not attend or watch a Twins game until they get what they think they want…new owners, new players, new front office. Most owners will only slash payroll to ensure a profit. So to each there own, predict the demise, then explain how to achieve said demise and then be outraged when demise is achieved. A slippery slope for sure. New does not equal better, it equals different.  Yes it has been 2 seasons of non playoff baseball.  I’ve seen much longer stretches and I want that stretch to end in 2026.  All of this to say, yes this is MyTeam and I look forward to the ups and downs of next season.  To not attend games or watch the Twins would hurt me and the product more than it affects the owners and powers that be.  If the goal is to watch only World Series Twins baseball, well it could be a long wait and made longer.  Downvote me, or whatever.  To those that love Twins baseball, don’t give up.  I assure you better days are ahead.  

Three of those guys are gone in two years. Trading them doesn't make the rebuild take longer.... I'm very confused by this post. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm not going to bet the house either, RB. First, there's the issue that I don't tend to bet, and second, I don't think the HOA guidelines allow it. And NO WAY am I betting Mrs. IT. She's too awesome. The kids are amazing as well. We do have a 2004 Honda Accord that I'd consider. 

 

But I'm with you in saying I'm willing to bet some hope, or at least have some willingness to be in the boat with you. I'll nuance my take a little bit. I've liked how you've used Ty France as your archetype for the type of player you don't want them to sign, so I'll use that as well. 

• Starting pitcher: I feel really good about what's currently on the roster.
• Outfield: They've got Buxton. I like your analogy of flooding youth through the filter. I see Wallner, Larnach (both not fully youth, but not vets either), Martin, Roden, Outman, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Mendez, Jenkins and I think there's enough talent to flood through the filter to make a pretty solid, maybe even good to very good, outfield. I don't want them to sign a Ty France here (or a Michael A. Taylor). 
• 3B/SS/2B: They have started the flooding. They are still in the growing pains, but I'm willing to read something into a 1-1 draft pick playing something like 64 out of the final 66 games and doing so at something like 27 HR/29 SB pace (Lewis). I'm willing to put some stock in a rookie cranking out 2.0 bWAR in 49 games with an OPS+ of 128 (Keaschall). And yes, I'm willing to put some stock in a guy who hasn't yet turned 25, was very recently being seen as a Top 50 prospect and who was suddenly thrown into the fire as a full-timer at the toughest non-catcher spot (Lee). I haven't seen Culpepper, but folks on here seem ready to flood the filter with him as well. I wish there were a couple more guys to consider flooding so they could have the little more room for error that they do in the outfield, but I don't want them to sign a Ty France (or a Kyle Farmer). I want them to ride with these guys.
• 1B: Here's the primary place I slightly differ from you. I don't see Clemens and Julien as flooding the filter. I don't see others in the pipeline. I value 1B defense, particularly when the rest of the infield is so young. I agree that Pete Alonso isn't coming to save the day, but here's where I'd like to see them spend $5M and get this year's Carlos Santana to play great defense and bat 7th or so. I don't know who that is, but between Santana and France, they've found some guys.
• C: I like Jeffers getting more games and feel good about that. Instead of an every-other-day pattern, methodically give him two games out of three and that's a manageable 108 games. They aren't ready to flood the filter with Tait and the other guy that I can't remember. I would have liked to shoot a smidge higher than Jackson (think Victor Caratini at $3M), but I'm not sure they still couldn't. And if not, I'm okay with them trying to unleash something in Jackson and maybe stretching Jeffers to 120 games.
• Bullpen: The huge unknown. There's a small handful of guys in Sands, Topa, Orze and Funderburk to start with. There's a couple that have gotten coffee (Adams, Ohl). There seems to be a plan for some transitioning of starters. I don't think they are far from flooding the filter, but it takes a LOT of bodies to do this on the mound. I'd like to see them spend $10M on three relievers on one-year contracts (Coulombe is my archetype) to give some sense of stability, particularly at the beginning of the season. And probably some guys on minor league contracts. It may start the season as a 30th-percentile bullpen, but they've historically done a better job of improving the bullpen over the course of the season than people have given them credit for. If they can turn this into a 60th or 70th percentile bullpen with a rotation that's top notch, that's a pretty good overall staff.

I'm willing to take Falvey at his word that he's more interested in adding than subtracting. I did my upgrades with a very modest $15M-18M.

 

Is that a 95-win team for the season? No. Is that a 90-win team? Probably not. But is that a team that can play the first third of the season at 76 win pace, the second part at 83 win pace and the third part at 91 game pace and play meaningful games in September. I'm willing to believe it can be. 

And if it doesn't happen, this year's France at 1B and three relievers can still get something at the deadline that will supplement the rest of the flooding that has been happening as they further gear to 2027 when the only pieces on this entire page that they lose are Jeffers and the France/relievers quartet. Meanwhile, they've done a lot of that sorting you've been talking about, including a sorting out of owners, and are very well positioned for next offseason.

 

But yes, all that changes with a trade of both starters and Buxton.*

 

(I actually think they can withstand trading ONE of the starters as long as they get MLB talent back. And by MLB talent, I don't mean another MLB-"ready" talent like Jenkins. I mean two actual major leaguers who will be locked in at 1B and a bullpen spot on Opening Day, for example. If nobody offers that, no can do.)   

The Honda... That's fine but honestly... I was thinking.

Winning Record in 2026. I'd do 20 Bucks at 100 to 1 odds. Yeah... that's right... I'll put my money where my mouth is. 

I like that you've joined the team. You and I will have to put the Carhardts on... heavy coat to face the cold stiff winds here at TD but it's nice to have someone with ya. 

We have slight disagreement as you noted but the concept is the same. Just make 2026 about finding talent and whatever happens happens but we should be at least a step or two or three closer when the season concludes as we roll into the storm clouds of the labor disagreement. The picture should be clearer... the decisions to make less numerous. Just flood it and assess the result and then flood it again. 

Pitching: I agree... we can start with what we have right now. Good depth and good potential. 

Our possible difference: I think they have to trade Joe Ryan. Have to... unless they are just lowballed. His value brings back to much to let that value diminish with his service time ticking or the possibility of injury. Use Joe Ryan to bring back the biggest baddest young player they can get. Someone a step above the guys that we will be flooding into the system hoping for hits on. Someone that Keith Law sings songs about... a guy that other teams don't want to part with. Sweeten the pot if you have to. I'm keeping Lopez... his return may not be worth his value to the club.  

Outfield: You are exactly right... there is enough on the 40 man already to more than flood the system. Two or three of the current group could come out of those shadows. Some will remain in the shadows. Just don't know who but only Buxton deserves everyday playing time. The rest can fight for it but you give them all the chance to fight for it. Evan Outman... give him until June but you got to give him a chance. We will probably have to trade one or two of them for better 40 man balance. 

2B/3B/SS: They need some help here. The depth isn't sufficient to flood. One of the top priorities this off-season needs to be getting Fitzgerald or Kreidler off the 26 man roster. As of right now... one of those two is on the 40 man. We need a young SS that will push Lee so Lee can push Lewis and even Keaschall. We will have Culpepper behind that hopefully and that's when you can say that they are flooding the position group. As of right now... Lee and Lewis are just going to either sink or swim and two years later if any of them sunk... they will just try again. Nope... We shouldn't wait. Get that SS and utilize those 4 players for those 3 spots. 

1B: Yeah... we will disagree on this one but I understand what you are saying. Your suggestion is probably the only direction that they can go. The Twins have literally no one for this position. It's beyond words how dry this well is! Especially when you consider that hitters naturally fall down the defensive spectrum to this position. It's a dry well that should be collecting groundwater but bone dry and it's led a yearly one year rental thing that has gone on too long as has no end in sight. I refuse to tolerate the continuation of this. I'd rather they sleep in the bed that they made. Starve if they have to. If you have to trade Joe Ryan to get an young potential aircraft carrier at this position. You do it. Otherwise... Clemens and Julien it is with hope that they can get Sabato, Fedko or Mendez going quickly. In regards to Clemens and Julien... they are both out of options. If you do trade for a 1B. One will have to go to make room.  

C: Just punt it for the time being - Jeffers needs to be cashed in for more chips. Concentrate on finding offense at the other 8 positions. 

Bullpen: Good Gravy - Uff Da - It's a project just attack it from all angles. Save the ones who work out and start building. It doesn't have to be the best bullpen baseball but you have to get it to functional. 

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Would part of the Vegas line be the expectation that the Twins were likely to trade from the core?

Odds change based on things that actually happen, so no. Add a good player, wins go up. Trade Buxton, wins go down.