When Paths Cross and Split: The Twins and Blue Jays Since 2023

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

When the Twins swept the Blue Jays in the 2023 Wild Card Series, it felt like a defining moment. Minnesota had finally ended its postseason drought, Carlos Correa and Pablo López were at the center of a young and hungry roster, and the team’s competitive window looked as wide open as the skies above Target Field. 

Toronto, on the other hand, was left reeling. The core that once looked destined for sustained success, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and a promising rotation, had sputtered. The Blue Jays went home searching for answers, while the Twins seemed to have all of them.

Then came 2024, and the trajectories began to shift. Minnesota’s ownership group stunned the fan base and front office by cutting payroll by $30 million, just months after the team’s playoff run. Despite those limitations, the Twins remained competitive, sitting comfortably in a Wild Card spot for much of the year. But an epic September collapse (filled with bullpen meltdowns, slumping bats, and a few untimely injuries) ended their postseason hopes. The Twins should have been there again, but baseball can be cruel that way.

In Toronto, things weren’t much brighter. The Blue Jays stumbled to a 74-88 record, watching their offense fade into mediocrity outside of Guerrero, who finished sixth in AL MVP voting but lacked consistent support. From a payroll standpoint, the Blue Jays had a $217 million payroll in 2024, which included four players making more than $18 million per season. The AL East is arguably baseball’s toughest division, and teams must spend to stay in contention. 

Both franchises entered the offseason frustrated and uncertain. Rocco Baldelli’s seat was warming in Minnesota, while John Schneider faced similar scrutiny in Toronto. The Twins fired hitting coach David Popkins after the season, only to see the Blue Jays scoop him up almost immediately for the same role—a move that didn’t seem significant at the time, but would soon sting.

Fast-forward to 2025, and the contrast between the two clubs couldn’t be sharper. The Twins opened the year with a sluggish start before rattling off 13 straight wins, a stretch that briefly reignited postseason dreams. But the inconsistency returned, and after a rough post-All-Star stretch, Minnesota found itself spiraling. By the trade deadline, the front office sold off nearly 40 percent of the active roster, signaling the end of an era. When the dust settled, Baldelli was dismissed, and the club was left to pick up the pieces.

Meanwhile, in Toronto, everything clicked, and the roster was boosted to a payroll of nearly $260 million. Among AL teams, only the Yankees have a higher payroll allocation for the 2025 season. On the field, the Blue Jays exploded out of the gate, led by an offense transformed under Popkins’s guidance. Guerrero was brilliant; George Springer rediscovered his rhythm; and a balanced lineup powered Toronto to 94 wins and an AL East crown. Even former Twin Jeff Hoffman closed out Game 7 in dominant fashion, to add salt to the wound. Now, as they prepare to face the Dodgers in the World Series, Blue Jays fans are celebrating a long-awaited breakthrough, one that comes with a hint of irony for Twins followers.

Now, the Twins turn the page to what feels like a pivotal offseason. With Baldelli’s tenure officially over, the front office is searching for a new voice to guide a roster that still holds plenty of potential. Whoever steps into the manager’s chair will inherit a mix of proven veterans and young talent waiting for an opportunity. The core of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, and López remains intact, and the club hopes that Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, and Walker Jenkins will soon emerge as everyday contributors.

Minnesota’s path back to contention will depend on how quickly the next wave develops, and how much ownership is willing to invest to complement it. The front office has shown it can build a playoff-caliber roster, but sustained success requires more than flashes of brilliance. The Twins have been here before, on the brink of something special, only to see injuries, inconsistency, and financial constraints get in the way. Learning from those lessons could determine how long it takes for the team to rise again.

For now, the Blue Jays are living the dream the Twins once seemed destined for. Yet, baseball’s beauty lies in its unpredictability. Two years ago, Minnesota was the club on the rise, while Toronto was searching for answers. In another two years, the script could flip again. The Twins have the foundation, the prospects, and the motivation to write their own resurgence story. The challenge is making sure they’re ready when their next chance arrives.

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What has changed between the Blue Jays and Twins since 2023? Is this strictly tied to payroll? Is Popkins the primary catalyst for their offensive improvements? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[mikelink45]

And thank you notes from France and Varland are in the mail.  

[h2oface]

"Even former Twin Jeff Hoffman closed out Game 7 in dominant fashion, to add salt to the wound. "

Does his brief "try-out" in spring training of 2023, when he exercised his opt-out when he didn't make the roster count? I mean, it was a minor league contract, even. Former Twin? Not even really a former Saint. Lots of things added salt to the wounds of the last two years, but Hoffman isn't one of them for me. Varland, yes . Hoffman pitched all of 5 innings allowing 2 runs on 2 hits with 3 walks and 8 Ks, and the FO went with the always cheerful Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan, and we probably all remember how well that turned out. Prizes from proud trades. Had to keep them. Coulombe, Megill, Stewart, Varland and Winder all didn't make the roster on opening day, either.

 

[Old Twins Hat]

You can't get any bigger change from 2023 than Guerrero.

Remember when Sonny Gray picked him off second base in the crucial game?

Vladdy sprawled on the infield, looking like a beached whale, signalled to the dugout to challenge the call.  (Which they did not.)

Remember that?

Now look at him.  Trim, athletic, hopping around the diamond like he's wearing ballet slippers, hammering the ball every time up.  Hungry as hell.

That's the change of the century right there.

[Blyleven2011]

What has happened between the twins and the Blue Jays franchises  ....

The Toronto Bluejay fans are living the dream because the team wants to win ...

All we ever hear from our franchise is a lot of words that they want to win but never back up their words with winning  ...

[Jeff K]

This is too painful.  It's relieving our misery the past two years ever since the infamous "right sizing" statement.

[Doctor Gast]

TOR & Twins are similar teams, MN beat out TOR in the '23 playoffs. But since MN went downhill & hit rock bottom thanks to Falvey.

IMO, it started back when MN traded Berrios to TOR. Berrios has always given his team around or up to 200 innings/ season until this season, when his arm finally gave out at 166 innings with a respectable 9-5 record. In '23, TOR quickly turned MN reject Hoffman into a respected high-leverage RP.  In '25, Falvey was more concerned about having a sacrificial lamb in Popkins than solving the real problem. TOR quickly took advantage of the situation & hired Pokins. It was understandable to trade France to TOR but trading Varland was idiotic, maddening, incomprehensible & unforgivable. These players, especially fireman Varland, were big reasons why TOR made it to the WS and why MN is in the crapper for many years to come.

[farmerguychris]

I was thinking about this as the Jays beat Seattle.

What a difference 2 years makes.

Our owners pull back and put money over winning.  The Jay's owners invest more, seeing the opportunity ahead of them.

No, money doesn't ensure wins.  But - despite some lower payroll teams in contention, they never seem to make it over the hump to win it all.

Over the past 5 years, the World Series winners ranked the following in payroll: 3rd,4th, 8th, 11th, and 1st.

Good for the Jay's owners and fans.  I'm envious.

 

[NYCTK]

The Blue Jays ownership invested heavily in their organization whereas the Pohlads decided to extract value. 

We're all subject to the whims of stupid, emotional, greedy billionaires from the Twins to El Casablanca. 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What has happened between the twins and the Blue Jays franchises  ....

The Toronto Bluejay fans are living the dream because the team wants to win ...

All we ever hear from our franchise is a lot of words that they want to win but never back up their words with winning  ...

All you hear from fans is complaints about winning yet in 2023 when the team was winning there was a real lot of empty seats.  

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

TOR & Twins are similar teams, MN beat out TOR in the '23 playoffs. But since MN went downhill & hit rock bottom thanks to Falvey.

IMO, it started back when MN traded Berrios to TOR. Berrios has always given his team around or up to 200 innings/ season until this season, when his arm finally gave out at 166 innings with a respectable 9-5 record. In '23, TOR quickly turned MN reject Hoffman into a respected high-leverage RP.  In '25, Falvey was more concerned about having a sacrificial lamb in Popkins than solving the real problem. TOR quickly took advantage of the situation & hired Pokins. It was understandable to trade France to TOR but trading Varland was idiotic, maddening, incomprehensible & unforgivable. These players, especially fireman Varland, were big reasons why TOR made it to the WS and why MN is in the crapper for many years to come.

Hoffman went to the Phillies and became good there

[tony&rodney]

The Toronto and Minneapolis teams play in vastly different markets. There are bound to be financial realities that do not cross paths. Money makes a difference (imo). However, roster construction is very important even on a shoestring budget. 

The Blue Jays flipped their runs scored and runs allowed from '23 to '24. The major improvement in 2025 was in runs scored. The Toronto team is still a little iffy on giving up runs. The bats came through, led by a major turnaround by George Springer.

The Twins saw their runs scored remain relatively stable in 2024 from 2023, but their runs allowed went up a fair amount. In 2025, the bats declined, while their pitching remained about the same.

TheTwins offense was led by Jeffers, Kepler, Julien, and Castro in 2023. Others were injured (Polanco, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa), returning from injuries (Lewis), or otherwise on the wrong slope. The postseason was very exciting but the roster needed athleticism and better bats badly. It was a critical time to gamble. That didn't happen and an increase in payroll wasn't available either. Ironically, the major players identified on Twins Daily to be added were Rhys Hoskins and Jordan Montgomery. No trades of note were made. 2025 was a continuation of expecting a mediocre roster to do more with less from the 2024. 

The 2026 Twins need some change to their roster. At least there are a few prospects that may emerge and the pile of inexperienced pitchers should begin to develop too. More change needs to occur though and the path back will be via better players versus money. Minnesota had some tough luck. Now it needs to turn things around. The path forward might take a couple of years.

 

[Omardog]

Toronto may think they've got it good right now, but the Twins payroll has been "right sized"!!

[old nurse]

23 to 24 Lewis slumped, Farmer slumped, Jeffers and Castro regressed. Julian imploded. Hitting coach Popkins 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Toronto and Minneapolis teams play in vastly different markets. There are bound to be financial realities that do not cross paths. Money makes a difference (imo). However, roster construction is very important even on a shoestring budget. 

The Blue Jays flipped their runs scored and runs allowed from '23 to '24. The major improvement in 2025 was in runs scored. The Toronto team is still a little iffy on giving up runs. The bats came through, led by a major turnaround by George Springer.

The Twins saw their runs scored remain relatively stable in 2024 from 2023, but their runs allowed went up a fair amount. In 2025, the bats declined, while their pitching remained about the same.

TheTwins offense was led by Jeffers, Kepler, Julien, and Castro in 2023. Others were injured (Polanco, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa), returning from injuries (Lewis), or otherwise on the wrong slope. The postseason was very exciting but the roster needed athleticism and better bats badly. It was a critical time to gamble. That didn't happen and an increase in payroll wasn't available either. Ironically, the major players identified on Twins Daily to be added were Rhys Hoskins and Jordan Montgomery. No trades of note were made. 2025 was a continuation of expecting a mediocre roster to do more with less from the 2024. 

The 2026 Twins need some change to their roster. At least there are a few prospects that may emerge and the pile of inexperienced pitchers should begin to develop too. More change needs to occur though and the path back will be via better players versus money. Minnesota had some tough luck. Now it needs to turn things around. The path forward might take a couple of years.

 

Around 60 million of the Toronto 258 Million Dollar Payroll hasn't contributed to the Blue Jays success in the post season this year. 

That's what money does. It allows you to absorb that type of loss. 

Berrios, Santander, Bichette haven't been utilized.  

From those contributing to their advancement.

Vlad, Springer and Gimenez are about 67 million for those 3 spots. 

Varsho is 8.2M

IKF is 7.5M,

Kirk is 4.6M and that adds up to 20.3M

Lukes, Clement and Barger all make the minimum. 

Starters... they have been rotating 4 starters. Gausman, Beiber and Scherzer cost about 38M combined and Yesavage costs the minimum. 

The Bullpen... The Jays have Bassitt in the pen basically. He costs 22 Million.

The rest of the pen. Hoffman and Yurial cost 7 million each. Lauer is 1.7M. The other 4 bullpen arms make the minimum. 

I go through this exercise to point out the obvious.

The Twins will never be in this ball park. 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Hoffman went to the Phillies and became good there

Thank you, my mistake

[BillyBallLives]

Since the postseason began, I’ve been hoping this article would finally drop.

Lots of great comments—good read.

Speaking of literature…the Twins and Jays are like "War and Peace":
 

Jays got Peace, the Twins got War. 

[tony&rodney]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 

I go through this exercise to point out the obvious. The Twins will never be in this ball park. 

 

 

Exactly. This was my opening, "vastly different" and "do not cross paths". 

Seems like everyone should recognize market size, even when they might not like it or how MLB views it.

[Riverbrian]

44 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Exactly. This was my opening, "vastly different" and "do not cross paths". 

Seems like everyone should recognize market size, even when they might not like it or how MLB views it.

Absolutely... without question. 

Could you imagine the Twins with 60 million worth of ballplayers not being utilized?  

There is no comparable path between these two franchises. Other than we met in the playoffs two years ago.  

[Twinsrtheworst]

In 2023 the Blue Jays drew over 3 million fans to the ballpark.  The Twins drew under 2 million.  Do the math.  Way too many empty seats in a season of fun baseball and playoff baseball.  Are we positive this didn’t contribute to the 25 million dollar decrease in payroll.  Attendance went up just over 100,000 from 2022 to 2023.  The cold reality is fun winning playoff baseball didn’t put substantially more butts in the seats.. Context and facts should matter still. I get it though, it’s just easier to simply regurgitate the Poland’s  are cheap and Levine is the worst.  

[Eris]

It would have been hard to predict that that the performance of just about every position player who contributed to the winning 2023 season has fallen off of a cliff. Ryan Jeffers has performed similarly. That is about it. Buxton was injured most of the season. I think blaming this all or mostly on money negates a discussion about a team that has failed in player development and in making meaningful adjustments to changing dynamics of the game. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

I do this type of comparison frequently with all the Minnesota men's major league sports teams. Last year, when the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I thought back to the NFC Championship game the week after the Minneapolis Miracle. The Vikings failed to take advantage of the miracle and the chance to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium and were crushed by the eventual champion Eagles. The Eagles have three Super Bowl appearances and two titles since then while the Vikings are stuck in their usual up and down mediocrity with no franchise quarterback.

Same thing with the Timberwolves compared to OKC. They are NBA champs, passing by the Wolves as the top up and coming team and turned it into a championship. 

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, se7799 said:

In 2023 the Blue Jays drew over 3 million fans to the ballpark.  The Twins drew under 2 million.  Do the math.  Way too many empty seats in a season of fun baseball and playoff baseball.  Are we positive this didn’t contribute to the 25 million dollar decrease in payroll.  Attendance went up just over 100,000 from 2022 to 2023.  The cold reality is fun winning playoff baseball didn’t put substantially more butts in the seats.. Context and facts should matter still. I get it though, it’s just easier to simply regurgitate the Poland’s  are cheap and Levine is the worst.  

In 2023 the Twins played .500  ball most of the season. Never more than 6 games over.500 They got hot at the end of August and Cleveland wilted. So the crowds didn't really come until the last month of the year. Thats why they only drew 100,000 more than the previous year.

[gil4]

4 hours ago, se7799 said:

In 2023 the Blue Jays drew over 3 million fans to the ballpark.  The Twins drew under 2 million.  Do the math.  Way too many empty seats in a season of fun baseball and playoff baseball.  Are we positive this didn’t contribute to the 25 million dollar decrease in payroll.  Attendance went up just over 100,000 from 2022 to 2023.  The cold reality is fun winning playoff baseball didn’t put substantially more butts in the seats.. Context and facts should matter still. I get it though, it’s just easier to simply regurgitate the Poland’s  are cheap and Levine is the worst.  

Attendance increases tend to follow success, and as Schmoeman5 pointed out, that success was really just late August, September, and the first round of the playoffs.  They had an opportunity after 2023 to build on that success, and it wouldn't have taken much.  Instead, they chose to alienate their most loyal fans by slashing payroll. 

If they had tried and failed it would have been forgivable. They chose to not try. 

[Fatbat]

A lot of recent history between the Twins and Jays. I am rooting for them to take out the Dodgers. Gonna be a minute til the Twins can build a pennant winning club. 

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

In 2023 the Twins played .500  ball most of the season. Never more than 6 games over.500 They got hot at the end of August and Cleveland wilted. So the crowds didn't really come until the last month of the year. Thats why they only drew 100,000 more than the previous year.

And the boring brand of baseball for the first 5 months wasn’t a draw. 

[LastOnePicked]

That clip feels like it came from a lifetime ago. I can't imagine how any owner could see a raucous, electric postseason Target Field and not put more chips on the table.

But that's the ownership we have. A nothing franchise, with no heart, no guts and no vision. Yes, baseball is often unpredictable, but trust me, the Jays and the Twins will not be switching places anytime soon.

[JBK]

No comparison.  Move on.  Sell

[Twinsrtheworst]

15 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

In 2023 the Twins played .500  ball most of the season. Never more than 6 games over.500 They got hot at the end of August and Cleveland wilted. So the crowds didn't really come until the last month of the year. Thats why they only drew 100,000 more than the previous year.

Other than the fact April record was better than August and July was similar as well .After an offseason of acquiring Pablo..  Then of course the empty seats for home playoff games.  I agree winning will bring in more fans.  But our payroll has always been related to the years previous attendance.  But to say fans became disinterested after 2023, to me it sounds like most were disinterested before the 2023 season started going by attendance figures..

[The Great Hambino]

12 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Other than the fact April record was better than August and July was similar as well .After an offseason of acquiring Pablo..  Then of course the empty seats for home playoff games.  I agree winning will bring in more fans.  But our payroll has always been related to the years previous attendance.  But to say fans became disinterested after 2023, to me it sounds like most were disinterested before the 2023 season started going by attendance figures..

Attendance generally operates on a one-year lag.  I saw a study on it but can't seem to find it.  It's why the Twins set their attendance record in 1988.  But ownership kneecapped the usual bounce in attendance that the playoff run would normally provide for 2024 by coming out with the right-sizing bit in the immediate aftermath and following that up with butchering the TV situation (the unfulfilled promise of blackouts going away, plus who could've possibly foreseen a bankrupt provider having carriage issues???).  Ownership can't absolve itself from at least partial blame for their attendance problems