Five Tools, One Question: Where Does Twins Prospect Brandon Winokur Belong?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

When the Twins selected Brandon Winokur in the third round of the 2023 MLB Draft, they knew they were betting on upside. The California prep star came with plenty of athleticism, raw strength, and projection, but also a fair share of uncertainty about where he’d eventually fit on the diamond. Two years later, that description still feels accurate.

At 6-foot-6, Winokur is one of the most physically imposing athletes in the Twins’ system. His combination of power, speed, and arm strength makes him a standout during any workout. What remains to be seen is where he will use those tools most effectively. Since turning pro, he has split time between shortstop, third base, and center field, all while showing flashes of potential at each spot.

“Third base, short, center—it doesn’t really matter to me,” Winokur said recently. “As long as I’m in the lineup, I’m happy. It’s actually kind of fun to look up before the game and see which spot I’m playing that day.”

While many evaluators assume that a player of Winokur’s size will eventually move off shortstop, he isn’t ready to give up on that dream. “There’s no reason I can’t play shortstop or third base long term,” he said. “If I keep working and improving, I think my size can actually help me make plays that smaller guys can’t.”

That kind of confidence isn’t misplaced. History has shown that taller infielders can thrive with the right combination of athleticism and work ethic. Cal Ripken Jr. (6-foot-4) redefined the shortstop position for bigger players, while Corey Seager (6-foot-4) and Elly De La Cruz (6-foot-5) have continued to prove that height doesn’t have to be a disadvantage on the dirt. If Winokur’s defensive instincts and footwork continue to develop, he could follow a similar path.

At the plate, the 20-year-old’s raw talent is just as intriguing. During his first full professional season, he launched 14 home runs, stole 23 bases, and posted a 118 wRC+ as a teenager in the Florida State League. This past season with High-A Cedar Rapids, those totals climbed to 17 homers and 26 steals, but his wRC+ dropped to 97. He was over two years younger than the competition at his level and faced older pitchers in all but 18 of his plate appearances. 

Even so, the Twins and Winokur know there’s room to grow when it comes to consistent contact. In his pro debut, he had a 32.4 K% which he improved to 28% during the 2024 season. Last season, he made even greater improvements by posting a 24.8 K% in a career-high 529 plate appearances. After hitting .204 with a .670 OPS through June, he rebounded to .258 with a .727 OPS the rest of the way, cutting down his swings and misses in the process (23.1 K%).

“Reducing strikeouts was a big focus going into the season,” Winokur explained. “The Twins really pushed me to put the ball in play more, especially with two strikes. That work definitely paid off as the year went on.”

This fall, Winokur is suiting up for the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League, where his attention remains on refining his swing mechanics and unlocking more of his raw power. His combination of size, athleticism, and competitive drive continues to make him one of the more fascinating prospects in the Twins organization. Currently, Twins Daily ranks him as the organization’s 12th best prospect. 

Whether his long-term defensive home ends up being shortstop, third base, or the outfield, the tools are there for Winokur to make an impact. For now, the Twins will let him keep exploring all his options, and that’s exactly how he likes it.

What will be Winokur’s long-term defensive home? Can he stick on the infield even at his height? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[DJL44]

He hits like a utility player. Probably a good idea to develop him at several positions so he can fill that role.

[High heat]

He will be 21 next season, like a guy drafted out of college.  The AZ fall league will be a good test.  Not a lot of high end pitching talent but some more advanced pitching.  
 

I think you keep leaving a guy like Winokur at SS until he proves he can’t play there.  At 20 yrs old the power will likely still develop the bat to ball skills is important improvement to see in game.  
 

At the very least he is one of the most interesting prospects in the twins system. 

[mikelink45]

Watching him play in Cedar Rapids I thought he looked awkward in the field.  I do not see SS in the future.  Not sure that I see him as a MLB starter, but nice to have his talent in the system and maybe he develops into something special. 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He hits like a utility player. Probably a good idea to develop him at several positions so he can fill that role.

The numbers at the end of the year are not handsome, no doubt. I can't think of another Twins prospect who hits the ball as hard though. He routinely hits the ball above 100 MPH. Winokur needs refinement.

The kid is tooled up to the max. He gets great jumps in the outfield and his speed allows him to cover an immense territory when he plays in the outfield. His quickness eats up ground in the infield like no other. The arm is a rocket and accurate. Winokur has enormous power and is a deer on the bases.

So what is the problem? Long levers and a big strike zone are challenging along with the normal processes for all young players in learning to hit, such as identifying breaking balls. Winokur is not close to a finished prospect. If everything goes according to plan he will play AA as a 21 year old, AAA as a 22 year old, and make his MLB debut as a 23 year old. There is extreme risk in his profile but also extreme reward if development proceeds successfully. 

I watch way too much minor league baseball. I have seen this kid well more than 50 times. Brandon Winokur is the most exciting player I have seen in many years. His power, speed, arm, and fielding are unmatched. Can he develop the hit tool? I'm taking the patient approach on Winokur, fully cognizant that he may never pan out as a MLB player.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The numbers at the end of the year are not handsome, no doubt.

He's young enough that you can still project him to a .720 OPS in the majors (league average). With his defensive tools he could be useful even if the bat never develops more than that. Max Kepler got paid $10M to be that player.

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's young enough that you can still project him to a .720 OPS in the majors (league average). With his defensive tools he could be useful even if the bat never develops more than that. Max Kepler got paid $10M to be that player.

I just don't think it is possible to project Brandon Winokur at this time. Look over the number of 6'-6" or taller position players in baseball. Generally these guys take quite a while to develop. Dave Winfield was a total unicorn, jumping right from college to the outfield for San Diego. Most tall players are judged to be awkward and have more than a few holes in their swing. So it takes some time. Aaron Judge had some difficulty at AAA as a 23 year old but figured things out pretty quickly, although many people were quick to call him awkward and see his huge strikeout numbers as a problem. 

Winokur will almost certainly need a minimum of 2-4 more years playing minor league baseball before we see him get an opportunity at the top level. Can he be disciplined and patient enough to work through all of the small details that need to be refined in his swing. There is a huge variance in his potential outcome, from never making it to superstar. The biggest issue I have seen watching Winokur is very typical of young players. He doesn't control his plate appearances or manage the count as well as he might. These things take a ton of work to iron out the kinks. Does Winokur possess the mind set, work ethic, focus, patience, and discipline to master his talents and massive moving parts? 

I will be interested to see how his experiences in the Arizona Fall League work forward in his play next year in Wichita. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The numbers at the end of the year are not handsome, no doubt. I can't think of another Twins prospect who hits the ball as hard though. He routinely hits the ball above 100 MPH. Winokur needs refinement.

The kid is tooled up to the max. He gets great jumps in the outfield and his speed allows him to cover an immense territory when he plays in the outfield. His quickness eats up ground in the infield like no other. The arm is a rocket and accurate. Winokur has enormous power and is a deer on the bases.

So what is the problem? Long levers and a big strike zone are challenging along with the normal processes for all young players in learning to hit, such as identifying breaking balls. Winokur is not close to a finished prospect. If everything goes according to plan he will play AA as a 21 year old, AAA as a 22 year old, and make his MLB debut as a 23 year old. There is extreme risk in his profile but also extreme reward if development proceeds successfully. 

I watch way too much minor league baseball. I have seen this kid well more than 50 times. Brandon Winokur is the most exciting player I have seen in many years. His power, speed, arm, and fielding are unmatched. Can he develop the hit tool? I'm taking the patient approach on Winokur, fully cognizant that he may never pan out as a MLB player.

Great post Tony and Rodney. Thanks. What about putting him at first base? What do you see as the pros and cons of this position for him?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Really exciting article Cody. What do you think about his playing first base?

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Great post Tony and Rodney. Thanks. What about putting him at first base? What do you see as the pros and cons of this position for him?

Winokur might take until he is 25 to become a regular at the highest level, or he might just not have the internal drive (I think/hope he does) to stick with a slow progression. He is not anything like a Walker Jenkins. Winokur is going to take time. First base? He is the best shortstop, centerfielder, and third baseman in the system at this time (imo), so the fielding is not even a discussion. FWIW, there are a pile of shortstops on his Arizona Fall League team and Winokur is mostly the guy they are using so far. Sure, he could play there but those decisions are years away.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There is a huge variance in his potential outcome, from never making it to superstar.

Agreed, with MLB average right there in the middle.

[bunsen82]

I don’t question the kids drive.  The kid is playing 3 defensive positions - working hard and improving.  He started out very rough to start the season.  Was the best player on the team for a stretch then cooled off a bit.  I think you keep him at the same level, see if he can dominate then move him up.  
 

As to position I am conflicted.  His best position long term is probably outfield, but as Tony said even a loaded fall ball league he is a shortstop.  Let him keep playing then move 3 positions for now.  I am in no rush to determine his position. 

[NYCTK]

Words have meaning guys. If he's striking out in a quarter of his PAs he's not showing a great hit tool, so he cannot be called five tool. 

He can improve it, but his tool is bad right now. And just checking, Fangraphs has his hit tool currently as a 20 grade. 

[D.C Twins]

Loooooong-waaaaaaay-tooooooo-goooooo

[Doctor Gast]

It's great when a prospect has quickness & raw power that  Winokur has. but are we developing him the maximum as we can as far as we can? He's stealing bases but could he do better? Right now it seems the best opening is utility. It'll take time to possess the instinct that'll help him in CF &SS. It's great that they are working on him being a good AB. He should eventually be an asset on the MLB team. I hope.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Words have meaning guys. If he's striking out in a quarter of his PAs he's not showing a great hit tool, so he cannot be called five tool. 

He can improve it, but his tool is bad right now. And just checking, Fangraphs has his hit tool currently as a 20 grade. 

After watching Winokur a ton, I agree with Fangraphs that Brandon Winokur is perhaps the most volatile players in all of the minor leagues. The hit could be near Elly De La Cruz territory, the miss is out of baseball by age 26. Winokur has been improving steadily and the next two years will give anyone interested a good look at his chances. Don't bet on Winokur but, really, don't bet against him. 

[Nashvilletwin]

If somehow we snag the #1 pick overall, Winokur is going to find himself as #4 on the SS of the Future depth chart.  Which means he just might then be #3 on the 3B of the Future as well.

With Keaschall and Jenkins as the clear 2B and CF solutions, respectively, Winokur should learn to play 1B or corner outfield if he wants to be anything other than a utility player by 2028.

[NYCTK]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

After watching Winokur a ton, I agree with Fangraphs that Brandon Winokur is perhaps the most volatile players in all of the minor leagues. The hit could be near Elly De La Cruz territory, the miss is out of baseball by age 26. Winokur has been improving steadily and the next two years will give anyone interested a good look at his chances. Don't bet on Winokur but, really, don't bet against him. 

I want to be clear, I don't even mean this as a criticism of him. There are plenty of valuable major league players without a very good hit tool. Some Hall Of Famers even. 

Just saying Winokur is not anywhere near a 5 tool player. 5 tool player is a huge compliment because it's rare. If you had to identify some Twins prospects that could be described as 5 tool, it'd probably only be Jenkins and Culpepper. And a lot of people might say that don't even come close to that designation. 

[DocBauer]

One of the most intriguing prospects in the system, and a personal favorite of mine. No question he's young and needs more polish. The floor is a washout, as it is with all prospects, but the ceiling is quite high. I'm impressed how he didn't allow his first couple of months to impact the rest of the season. 

POTENTIALLY he's capable of 30HR and SB, even though 20/20 is more safe to project. 

Defensively I just don't this early in his career. There are posters who have seen him play WAY MORE than I have. But from what little I've seen of him, he moves pretty well at SS and has a cannon of an arm. I've seen him make plays, and almost make plays, that flash tremendous potential. But I still have doubts about his sticking at SS. 

I have little doubt he could be an excellent 3B. All the tools are there. 

With his frame, he could add 15lbs and you'd hardly notice. With his speed, athleticism, and arm, I've stated for a while he might be one of the best CF prospects in the system currently, allowing Rodriguez and Jenkins to concentrate on the corners, and provide CF backup, in another 2-3yrs when he's probably ready.

However, even with his frame, if he were to bulk up 20-25lbs, it's possible he loses some of his quickness and speed, and that might make him a corner OF, rather than a true CF. And that's not taking away the possibility of him at 3B still. I'm speaking only of him as an OF.

While it might feel like a waste to put him at 1B, Bollinger says "hello". There's absolutely nothing wrong with having a good athlete at 1B with power and speed who can also play OF as needed. With SS and 3B ability, he'd probably make an excellent 1B/OF option in a couple of years.

While SS is probably a question mark in the future, it doesn't hurt keeping him for now to see how well he can develop there. It sure doesn't hurt his ability at 3B. So for now I'd keep playing him at all 3 spots, at least through his age 21 season and then re-evaluate. Maybe be then he focuses only on 3B and CF. Maybe not. Maybe he surprises everyone. But absolutely no need for 1B anytime soon. He can be adapted there later, IF that provides the best opportunity for him when ML ready.

You play the best players. And if that means moving a 3B to 1B, then you do it. But we're a couple years away from worrying about that. Keep him doing what he's doing for now, and keep focusing on better contact, lowering the K's and increasing the BB as well. He's already shown as a 20yo at A+ that he's capable of growing and adapting.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

If somehow we snag the #1 pick overall, Winokur is going to find himself as #4 on the SS of the Future depth chart.  Which means he just might then be #3 on the 3B of the Future as well.

With Keaschall and Jenkins as the clear 2B and CF solutions, respectively, Winokur should learn to play 1B or corner outfield if he wants to be anything other than a utility player by 2028.

With all due respect there is not a depth chart when it comes to a player like Winokur. If he gets his bat figured out he starts. Where? Shortstop, centerfield, third base, or the corner outfield. He clearly needs a ton of work with controlling his plate appearances and he has also clearly made slow improvement thus far. Winokur is 20 years old right now and is likely at AA Wichita next season as a 21 year old. He could make quicker gains or totally stall. It is all in the contact profile at this time. Nobody hits the ball harder, he is fast, and he has a rocket arm. In the field his combination of quickness and speed are rare. All players his age needs defensive polishing because they need to learn the nuances of the game. Hitting is how a player gets to MLB. Noah Miller would win the Gold Glove every year if he was in the majors. He is that good with a glove. But he can't hit, so he is still fighting to learn in the minor leagues. Baseball requires many unique skills and players work hard to reach their maximum talent. When a player who is gifted physically figures it out, then a star emerges. Winokur has uncommon athletic talent. We will not know for 2-5 years whether he emerges as a star or disappears from our prospect sites.

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

With all due respect there is not a depth chart when it comes to a player like Winokur. If he gets his bat figured out he starts. Where? Shortstop, centerfield, third base, or the corner outfield. He clearly needs a ton of work with controlling his plate appearances and he has also clearly made slow improvement thus far. Winokur is 20 years old right now and is likely at AA Wichita next season as a 21 year old. He could make quicker gains or totally stall. It is all in the contact profile at this time. Nobody hits the ball harder, he is fast, and he has a rocket arm. In the field his combination of quickness and speed are rare. All players his age needs defensive polishing because they need to learn the nuances of the game. Hitting is how a player gets to MLB. Noah Miller would win the Gold Glove every year if he was in the majors. He is that good with a glove. But he can't hit, so he is still fighting to learn in the minor leagues. Baseball requires many unique skills and players work hard to reach their maximum talent. When a player who is gifted physically figures it out, then a star emerges. Winokur has uncommon athletic talent. We will not know for 2-5 years whether he emerges as a star or disappears from our prospect sites.

With all due respect, if we draft Cholowsky, we will have three first rounders ahead of Winokur in the post lockout SS pecking order. All three CURRENTLY project to be better overall prospects.

Of course things could change - nothing is certain. Players flame out, some excel, some get traded, some get hurt. So, as you rightly point out, Winokur could very well end up in that role for the Twins - but he is going to have to beat out three better prospects one way or another. 

One thing is certain, however - we have several years before any of us have to really worry about. Winokur does seem like a high upside prospect and we should all look forward to watching (and cheering for) his development. 

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

With all due respect, if we draft Cholowsky, we will have three first rounders ahead of Winokur in the post lockout SS pecking order. All three CURRENTLY project to be better overall prospects.

Of course things could change - nothing is certain. Players flame out, some excel, some get traded, some get hurt. So, as you rightly point out, Winokur could very well end up in that role for the Twins - but he is going to have to beat out three better prospects one way or another. 

One thing is certain, however - we have several years before any of us have to really worry about. Winokur does seem like a high upside prospect and we should all look forward to watching (and cheering for) his development. 

I have never made any mention of Brandon Winokur as the best prospect. That would be Walker Jenkins. I don't think I would rank Brandon in the Twins top ten but I would say he is their best talent. He has more physical talent and high end potential. In fact, my timeline has been roughly 3-5 years. I'm really hoping the Twins get a surefire Skenes/Witt Jr. type player in the draft next year and that guy takes the field in 2027. Well, Skenes/Witt Jr. light to be fair to whomever is drafted. As it is I'm quite hopeful to see Culpepper and Jenkins next season. Winokur is well down the road and I got off too far on him if people deduced that he would be ready before 2028-9 at the earliest. The Twins have plenty of work to do to rebuild their roster for next season and are surely not thinking at all about their 20 year old at this time.

[twinssporto]

I love the kid's enthusiasm to get better, but giraffe legs won't work at SS. Maybe third? Looks awkward to me, but what do I know? We are the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League Central now. Throw everything against the wall and see what sticks....Let's get rolling!

 

 

 

 

[Bodie]

I saw someone call him an "Interesting" prospect, and I agree.  Lots to like (i.e. the "tools", or what we used to call being a "stud"), but about 140 years of pro history telling us that it at six and half feet tall he will have a tough time simply covering the strike zone. 

The tools make it possible that this offseason he makes all the tools/athleticism click and leaves the Twins no choice but to name him a starter at ____ (name your position).  He is that kind of a talent. 

 

The history of guys as tall as him makes it quite possible that he will never be more highly thought of as he is today.   

The expanded strike zone of a tall man is covered by (basically) the exact same bats that your weak-hitting (and short) utility players use...

[Otaknam]

On 10/18/2025 at 5:32 AM, DJL44 said:

He hits like a utility player. Probably a good idea to develop him at several positions so he can fill that role.

It’s too early to project him as a utility player. He’s young and has a lot of tools, especially power and speed, as his stolen base totals would confirm. Hopefully he can improve his contact rate and batting average. 

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

It’s too early to project him as a utility player. He’s young and has a lot of tools, especially power and speed, as his stolen base totals would confirm. Hopefully he can improve his contact rate and batting average. 

There's nothing wrong with being a utility player. If Winokur can be the next Willi Castro he'll be quite valuable.

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

The history of guys as tall as him makes it quite possible that he will never be more highly thought of as he is today. 

Is Oneil Cruz a good comp? He's 6'7" and has played SS, 3B and the outfield.

[JD-TWINS]

On 10/18/2025 at 9:56 AM, tony&rodney said:

I just don't think it is possible to project Brandon Winokur at this time. Look over the number of 6'-6" or taller position players in baseball. Generally these guys take quite a while to develop. Dave Winfield was a total unicorn, jumping right from college to the outfield for San Diego. Most tall players are judged to be awkward and have more than a few holes in their swing. So it takes some time. Aaron Judge had some difficulty at AAA as a 23 year old but figured things out pretty quickly, although many people were quick to call him awkward and see his huge strikeout numbers as a problem. 

Winokur will almost certainly need a minimum of 2-4 more years playing minor league baseball before we see him get an opportunity at the top level. Can he be disciplined and patient enough to work through all of the small details that need to be refined in his swing. There is a huge variance in his potential outcome, from never making it to superstar. The biggest issue I have seen watching Winokur is very typical of young players. He doesn't control his plate appearances or manage the count as well as he might. These things take a ton of work to iron out the kinks. Does Winokur possess the mind set, work ethic, focus, patience, and discipline to master his talents and massive moving parts? 

I will be interested to see how his experiences in the Arizona Fall League work forward in his play next year in Wichita. 

Judge hit .179 in 84 AB’s at age 24 in MLB …….. Winokur has plenty of time. If he HITS he can play wherever there’s a fit. Until he shows he can HIT, his defensive position is a moot point.

3B - OF - 1B possibly?

[Major League Ready]

On 10/19/2025 at 10:52 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Judge hit .179 in 84 AB’s at age 24 in MLB …….. Winokur has plenty of time. If he HITS he can play wherever there’s a fit. Until he shows he can HIT, his defensive position is a moot point.

3B - OF - 1B possibly?

That's not really a fair comparison.  Judge hit all through the minors and had a hiccup for 27 games when he first reached the majors.  I love Winokur's tools as much as the next guy let's be realistic in that his hitting is still quite suspect.

[Mike Sixel]

There is zero reason for him to be at SS. He's behind three other players, two of whom are in the minors. He should be in LF and First base and 3B (maybe). Seriously. Stop playing him at SS already. If he ever plays there for the Twins, their last two first round picks died or something. Seriously. Give him a real shot at a position he might ever play.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There is zero reason for him to be at SS. He's behind three other players, two of whom are in the minors. He should be in LF and First base and 3B (maybe). Seriously. Stop playing him at SS already. If he ever plays there for the Twins, their last two first round picks died or something. Seriously. Give him a real shot at a position he might ever play.

Excuse me if I am repeating myself, but the question to be answered in the next several years is whether or not Winokur can hit advanced pitching and be an effective bat at the major league level. He needs quite a bit of work on his swing and swing decisions in addition to pitch recognition. He is definitely making progress. Many minor league players face this challenge. 

A really rough comparison from another sport that involves talent and learning might be Anthony Edwards. Skills take time to learn, but talent is given.

The glove, arm, power, and speed are not in question. There is not a sequence of shortstops, centerfielders, etc. Perhaps you have seen Winokur play a hundred times. Forgive me, I don't remember. Having seen him play dozens of times myself, the guy is a unicorn. Can he hit? We should have an answer in 2-4 years. The bat is his only restriction. If he could hit like Jenkins or Culpepper now, Winokur would open 2026 as the Twins shortstop. He is nowhere close to that level yet with his bat. I can wait. I hope others can too.