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Posted

This is not some crazy, WAY TOO EARLY, BLOW SMOKE pre-offaeason prediction opinion. Nor am I intending to be self-indulgent in any way. But A] wheels have been turning in .y head BEFORE the deadline craziness, B] the same wheels have been in overdrive SINCE that day, C] I've had a few different individuals that have asked me questions about 2026 and my opinion.

The OP I'm referencing, of course, was on the front page recently. In a nutshell, it stated the Twins were closer to competing in 2026 than most/many believe. ALL they have to do is not trade any rotation pieces and fix the bullpen. And that's pretty much all that was said. And I was in a bad mood that day and got a little snarky, I'll admit, with my initial response.

I don't have a TD Blog at this time, and ai didn't want to respond a half dozen times or more to the questions posed to me, and I didn't want to offer up an 8 paragraph response....which I'm known to do at times. LOL.

So as a result, this is MY way to respond to all those that have asked for my opinion, and a way to hopefully slow the wheels in my overactive brain, and nothing more. Read on or not, your choice. It's going to be long winded. 😁 [and I'm going to rank a little]

PAYROLL, AND STEP #1: With current players rostered, expected arbitration numbers, and a large collection of inexpensive players making minimum, or not much above, the payroll should be sitting about $90M with Larnach removed. 

The roster needs a shakeup and a few handful of desperately needed changes. (I'm not directly involving myself in the manager, the coaches, or the FO at this moment). I don't dislike Larnach. But he's the 1st change I have taking place. I don't know if he brings back MILB prospects only, or if he can be packaged with someone else to maybe bring back someone's #3 or #4 pen arm, but I believe there are teams in need of a LH DH/OF with a career .765 OPS against RHP.  The changes now begin, and the payroll begins at $90M

#2] ROTATION:

KEEP Lopez and Ryan. (And Ober for that matter). Their salaries are already worked in to the $90M and all have control through 2027, so they still have trade value later if a move is warranted. But quality SP is the toughest thing to find.

With that being said, based on pitchers currently rostered, who have been at AAA all/most of 2025, and AA arms who have been recently promoted, or have been fixtures in prospect profiles, you have the following list of options for the rotation, where from DAY ONE, or June/July 1st additions and depth: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Abel, Bradley, Morris, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, CJ Culpepper, Klein, MacLeod, and you MIGHT include newly acquired Rojas on the list as well, despite inexperience. That's 15 and maybe 16 arms for the 2026 rotation and AAA depth, even if some have had rough seasons, or might not be ready until mid summer-ish.

That also takes us to....

3] BULLPEN:

There's just NO WAY to re-build the pen overnight. And NO WAY, the FO would have the resources to throw $M's of $ to do so. (It also doesn't always work that way for teams have tried either). But there are enough good/interesting arms from the SP options to make some interesting moves here.

A] As an organization, you sit down and examine who you really and truly believe are arms that you think are rotation bound. As close to 100% as you can realistically believe/hope. And you go from there.

B] You then decide who might be better in the pen vs being 9th-10th-11th, etc, in line for a ML SP slot.

EXAMPLE: While I SO WANT Festa to harness all his stuff as a quality ML SP, maybe he's just not built to do so? Are the pair of shoulder fatigue issues he's had this season an aberration? Or is he just better off as a setup and potential closer arm? (Similar to Duran).

EXAMPLE #2: CJ Culpepper has performed very well when healthy and has been a consistent top "teen" prospect in the system. But he's also had a couple minor injury setbacks recently. There have also been reports of decreasing velocity as the game goes on. He's also got a repertoire of 5-6 solid, effective pitches, but questions remain if any of them can be considered DOMINANT. Could he be "Jax-like" arm who could crank up his velocity for a single inning, maybe 2 on occasion? Is his arm better built for that role perhaps?

I could go in to further examples with others, but won't, and don't need to. The point is made. Instead of being later in the pecking order of an arm that MIGHT make it as a ML SP, how about reaching MLB sooner, with more $, and better benefits, and solid future earnings instead of "languishing" in MILB hoping to "make it" one of these days. And there are always other arms coming up behind you in the system.

C: With a $90M beginning payroll, there's room to a couple of FA arms to deepen/improve the pen for 2026 as well. And I'm NOT talking about spending BIG $. What about a mid 30's LH option like Chaffin? Or bringing back Coulombe again? We might be talking about a 1yr $3-3.5M deal...a pretty small deal...for a 1 IP veteran who is still proving in 2025 they can get the job done? 

JUST another example. Is there another Stewart out there? Someone who picked 2025 to have a down season before they become a FA? Someone who was coming off surgery in 2025 and didn't have a great 1st season back? It's WAY TOO EARLY to list a bunch of options when the season isn't even done yet. Maybe a Jeff Hoffman, who they SHOULD have held on to?

Absolutely NOT saying you have re-built the pen overnight to anything of great quality. But might you end up with a "serviceable" pen with a good and still potentially deep rotation? Imagine Sands getting back to being closer to his 2024 form, Festa and maybe Raya...giggles and examples... in the pen with a PAIR of solid FA veterans, along with Topa, (still under control), and Adams and Ohl as middle options. MAYBE Hatch is worth keeping? MAYBE another Stewart surprise? 

But if they can move a couple young arms with talent to the pen, add a couple solid, experienced veteran FA arms, etc, to the pen, they might at least have that serviceable pen. It's a hell of a lot easier than trying to build or re-build a rotation! 

BTW, didn't Cleveland re-build/re-tool THEIR 2024 pen by trusting in some young arms?

4] LINEUP/POSITION PLAYERS:

While I stated I wasn't going to get in the manager or coaching aspect, I simply HAVE TO at this point to some degree. There is some sort of IDENTITY FLAW in the current Twins system regarding positional players and offensive approach. The Bomba Squad days are done. That doesn't mean POWER should be dismissed. POWER has ALWAYS played and WILL ALWAYS play. That doesn't mean HITTING ability and defense, and athleticism, defense, and speed to some degree, don't matter.

Drafts over the past few seasons haven't ignored power and they shouldn't. But the scouting department has also drafted pretty heavily on ATHLETICISM. But it takes a while for said prospects to get there. Keaschall is the FIRST of said prospects to arrive. Others are on their way. 

They let go a coaching staff they felt underperformed and replaced them with another staff. The results have been worse. I'm NOT BLAMING the current hitting staff directly. Again, I'm just asking, IS THEIR AN APPROACH THE FO WANTS TO TAKE? And if there is, what is it?

Wallner's 2023 and 2024 had him with decent AVG, a .370 OB%, and an OPS hovering around. 880 combined. He was off to a good start in 2025 before injury. Since then, he's struggled. Is that injury and timing issue STILL?  Lewis has been admittedly struggling with his body and a new approach. But nobody has been able to help him with that? Or Wallner getting timing back? There IS an issue with either coaching or approach and that HAS to be addressed.

But that's where I'm drawing the line on coaching and the FO at this point. 

A] The Twins DON'T have a 1B. No offense meant to Clemens who I'd bring back in 2026 as a 3 day player, ASSUMING he could be the same guy again. I would jump on JOSH NAYLOR at 29yo for a $14-15M deal for 2-3yrs. Considering how undervalued 1B has been recently, maybe we get him a bit cheaper. But he gives us a SOLID 1B glove and a SOLID veteran player in the clubhouse and SOLID player at the plate who produces 20+ Dbls and HR consistently. And he's neutral enough in his splits that he doesn't have to be platooned.

B] The Twins DON'T have a #2 catcher for 2026. This whole playing Gasper at catcher makes me feel like the the FO is playing him there "just because". ********! Come on Falvey!

$3M for a Diaz/Jansen type for 2026 while Cardenas is waiting in the wings as the new #3.

C] Ideally we see Lewis get his base and new stroke working and we suddenly have a potential All Star player at 26yo and Wallner becomes again the .880 type producer he HAS BEEN before this season fully.healthy And Lee just keeps being better. 

D] And Rodriguez suddenly stays healthy for more than a few weeks and the Twins follow the Brewers MO, and just toss him in to LF and just accept all of his potential and ups and downs and do the same with Jenkins in the near future. 

F] Fedko and Gonzalez are right behind 

E] There remains the option to add a full time DH to this team. I'm not crazy about that option as I still kinda like the option of keeping DH open for half days off. But there are options out there. I'm just more concerned about letting the prospects play and rotating through DH as necessary.

AT THE END: 

90M payroll to start with. Spend about $10-12M tops on 1-3  pen arms to help future transition. Spend another $15M for Naylor at 1B for a veteran bat and presence. 

 So can the Twins be competive in 2026? Well, they might compete for the ALC or a WC unless ownership tears them down to nothing. But the $27M -ish I've proposed STILL doesn't reach the $130M spent last year. 

That leaves room for a 1yr DH, or an added arm for the pen. And while id be advocating STRONGLY for extensions for Ryan and Jeffers, MOST of those types of deals wouldn't even take affect until 2027.

There's a lot of room to navigate 2026 IF the FO can be smart about a couple of BP options brought in. As well as being smart in regard to handling the internal pitching options on hand. And IF they have a $130M payroll from last season....well below league average...to work with. Smart decisions need to be made

But also, a lot depends not only on talent on hand, but so many TOP prospects oh so close.  Again, Keaschall is the closest. But we need to see better results SOON!

But if you want to look at HOW the Twins might be able to compete in 2026 for an above .500 record and potential playoff spot, and not destroy the team for a 100 loss season, there you go!

 

Posted

If you keep Lopez Ryan and Ober as starters and Simeon Woods Richardson you have the makings of a still decent rotation. Use the rest of the year to audition Abel, Bradley, and Festa and Matthews. Get Ober and Lopez healthy. I could see two from that younger group profiling to bullpen guys probably Festa for sure. I think Ohl is a bullpen candidate. If you have a quality rotation you have the makings of a chance to still be competitive. My worry is the offense. Twins have a big hole at 1st base and back up or starting catcher. Jeffers best role is DH. Keaschall doesn't seem like the answer at 2nd base. I'm not sure where Larnach and Wallner fit in as neither is a really a good defender or a clutch RBI guy.  Larnach and Wallners best roles are probably DH. Twins need a starting catcher that is a good defender and can hit. Catching at MLB level and 1st base are Twins biggest weaknesses at MLB level. I think Lewis and Lee are decent 3rd basemen and Short stop defenders. With better hitters around both Lewis and Lee  they could rebound. Wallner and Larnach strike out and hit into too many double plays. Buxton is a lead off guy and should never have been moved around by Rocco so much. Rocco's lack of consistency in line-up structure has always bugged me. I would keep Clemmons as a utility and bench role guy. Twins have sucked at drafting catchers and first basemen, and pitching under this regime. They need a change in the front office and managers roles. Not someone from within either, Should have hired the Diamondbacks manager Luvello not who they did back when they fired Gardenhire. 

Posted

Franchise—front office steering,
straight into the ditch.
Two bad years, ’21, ’22—
already had me leaning,
thinking: 2023, prove it.
And they did.
Competitive, sharp,
one nice postseason series—
a tune I could hum along to, and remember.
Then ’24 slipped,
’25 worse—
notes sour, melody lost.
Now it’s “rebuild.”
But why the same conductor?
First movement failed,
second sounds the same.
Ownership nods along—
complicit, complicit.
We thought they’d leave the stage,
but no.
Still here.
So now what?
Silence.
I don’t know.

Posted

The short answer is no. They had so many holes in the lineup before the deadline, and now they created 5 additional holes on the pitching staff. The Pohlads will not spend the money to patch the holes. 

The longer, complex answer is I don’t want them to compete for anything in 2026. Unless it’s led by Herculean efforts from our internal prospects. Striving for 83 wins the last 5 years is so boring as a fan. I want the Twins to be contenders in the AL one day. Not squeaking by a terrible AL Central division and get spanked by Houston or the Yankees. 

2026 should be all about development. Get all of the young pitchers up and figure out who’s a part of the next contending team. Culpepper and Jenkins appear to be getting fast tracked now for an early 2026 debut. Do it! No more 1 year band aid veteran signings. 

Posted

They obviously can compete in '26, but it's hard to imagine it actually happening. The issue is we have the same owners, front office & on field management. Until these things change, I have my doubts we'll see the type of team Twins fans would like.

The value of the playoff win in '23 should have been about momentum & building something bigger, but the owners stopped that momentum cold. For decades the Pohlads have proven they have no interest in trying to put a winning team on the field. Under Falvey-Baldelli leadership we've seen no indication that they can bring in/develop enough talent to build a winning team.

For me it's not worth it to dive into specifics until these things change.

Posted

I'm still a believer that the Twins CAN compete next season too, but that comes with conditions and worries. Having the same ownership and front office is NOT an encouraging thought, and until we have some TRUE plan that they are going to spend money on free agents or change the manager and coaching staff (yeah, I know, VERY unlikely to happen), I don't have much faith we will be more than a .500 team at the very best. I believe in many of our prospects, but if they can't out-perform what we've seen from the likes of Lewis, Lee, Larnach and company this season, then I think it's time for a REAL rebuild. 

Posted

I appreciate the hope. A few thoughts.

  • I think both Jenkins in the outfield and Prielipp in the pen can help from opening day.
  • If they can’t get a player for Larnach it is OK to go the Rosario direction and let him go.
  • Change in leadership brings new energy to any organization. They need that energy. 
Posted

The important thing is pitching, particularly starting pitching. The death knell for both ‘24 and ‘25 was injury to one of the top guys in the rotation (Ryan in ‘24, Pablo in ‘25). Health is crucial. Secondly a bullpen has to be built almost from scratch. I have more faith in a potential strong rotation than I do for the BP.

Health and production from Buxton, Lewis, Wallner and Lee and having Keaschall for a full year would help remake the offense.

If you squint hard you can see a path, but a lot of things would have to fall in place, particularly health. 

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted

They gutted the pen and didn't add much to anything else for 2026.

We don't know what the 2026 team will look like yet, but if it's comprised largely of players currently in the organization, I don't see how they compete. They haven't managed it with these players AND the bullpen in 2 years, how will they next year?

Posted

I am fully of the opinion the Twins can compete if they want to.  Are they willing to use some prospect capital to do so?   Are they willing to spend some money.  You can legitimately spend $15 million on 2 bullpen arms,  and trade 1 top 8-15 prospect, and have a pretty strong bullpen.   The bullpen hasn't been the issue since the trade deadline.  Its been the bats and starting pitching primarily.   

1st base -  Would we be willing to do a 1 year contract with Santana again?  They have Manzardo.   $7 to $8 million if his market is weak.   Or are we willing to move Wallner to 1st.  Or give Sabato a chance.   Or are we willing to trade for a 1st baseman.  This is the biggest question mark moving forward.  Beyond that you have a lot of players where things could definitely improve next year,  especially with a couple more quality hitters in the lineup.  

The question is are we going to hoard the prospects or utilize the capital to re-tool and rebuild.  I could see a situation where we are both buyers and sellers.  Trading a Ryan away,  but then getting more players with a 4-5 year window.   

 

Posted

Competing next season will be heavily reliant current prosects and having 2 or 3 free agent signings hit.

Assuming Lopez and Ryan aren't traded the rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews and Able should be pretty strong.

A bullpen of Sands, Topa, Ohl, SWR, Raya, Hatch, Adams and a free agent signing could be the makings of an average bullpen.

C: Jeffers

1st: Naylor

2nd: Keaschall

3rd: Lewis

SS: Lee

LF: Roden

CF: Buxton

RF: Wallner

DH: Rotating cast

Bench: Martin, Clemens, FA C signing, Outman, and Eeles.

By June Twins add Jenkins, Cullpepper, and Rodriguez to the MLB lineup.  Jenkins pushes Wallner to DH, Cullpepper pushes Lee to the bench as an infield utility, and Rodriguez pushes either Martin or Outman off the team and becomes the outfield utility player, that can keep the other outfielders fresh.

Gonzalez and Fedko are potentially right behind those first three callups.  

Posted

Do another 2019 and bring in quality veterans ,BUT,  find a Quality SS, move Lee to 3rd and let Lewis, if he is still here, be nothing more than back-up.

 

Posted
5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Do another 2019 and bring in quality veterans ,BUT,  find a Quality SS, move Lee to 3rd and let Lewis, if he is still here, be nothing more than back-up.

 

Why would you want to bring in veterans that will potentially block prospects, many of which are at AA or AAA?  

Posted
1 hour ago, SF Twins Fan said:

Competing next season will be heavily reliant current prosects and having 2 or 3 free agent signings hit.

Assuming Lopez and Ryan aren't traded the rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews and Able should be pretty strong.

A bullpen of Sands, Topa, Ohl, SWR, Raya, Hatch, Adams and a free agent signing could be the makings of an average bullpen.

C: Jeffers

1st: Naylor

2nd: Keaschall

3rd: Lewis

SS: Lee

LF: Roden

CF: Buxton

RF: Wallner

DH: Rotating cast

Bench: Martin, Clemens, FA C signing, Outman, and Eeles.

By June Twins add Jenkins, Cullpepper, and Rodriguez to the MLB lineup.  Jenkins pushes Wallner to DH, Cullpepper pushes Lee to the bench as an infield utility, and Rodriguez pushes either Martin or Outman off the team and becomes the outfield utility player, that can keep the other outfielders fresh.

Gonzalez and Fedko are potentially right behind those first three callups.  

I don't see the Twins spending FA money on Naylor,  I would love it, but just don't see it.  His market value is $17M/year according to Spotrac.  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/17627/josh-naylor

Speculation on my part, but I am guessing he will want a long term contract now that he is 28 and want to take advantage of this season.  I just don't think he will want to sign a 1-2 year contract and I don't see the Twins going long term.  Maybe they will surprise us.  

If they sign a FA 1B, I see them signing a Carlos Santana/Wilmer Flores type of guy on a short term deal.  

Posted
Just now, SF Twins Fan said:

Why would you want to bring in veterans that will potentially block prospects, many of which are at AA or AAA?  

It is called Winning games, not acting like another AAA team where they learn the rookies cannot handle Major league baseball.

All the hype for bring up -- take your pick of most of the rookies the past five years -- has turned out to be as sweet as bovine excrement.

Keaschall , May be a winner, Jenkins is a crap-shoot, not another sure thing like Witt Jr. or De La Cruz. All the so called blocking is silly blabber; if a player is good enough he will make it to the Big League, maybe early, if not, he will not.

Posted

Can they compete in 2026? 

Yes they can... they gotta rebuild the bullpen but that can be done.

I think we will be strong in the starting rotation and I'm hopeful that we stay away from the cheap one year vet to fill position player spots.  

If they choose to spend some money... we have some money to spend now. Don't know if they will choose to spend money. But, they got the money to rebuild that pen now.  

  

Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Can they compete in 2026? 

Yes they can... they gotta rebuild the bullpen but that can be done.

I think we will be strong in the starting rotation and I'm hopeful that we stay away from the cheap one year vet to fill position player spots.  

If they choose to spend some money... we have some money to spend now. Don't know if they will choose to spend money. But, they got the money to rebuild that pen now.  

  

It will be very interesting to find out who the two minority groups are and what percentage of the team they will own.  Personally, I'm hoping the Wilfs are one of the groups and maybe the Davis family.  I'm hoping each owns at least 20%, so they have a bit more say in how both the business side and team operate.

Posted
Just now, SF Twins Fan said:

It will be very interesting to find out who the two minority groups are and what percentage of the team they will own.  Personally, I'm hoping the Wilfs are one of the groups and maybe the Davis family.  I'm hoping each owns at least 20%, so they have a bit more say in how both the business side and team operate.

From a simple curiosity standpoint. Yeah... It'll be interesting. 

No matter who it is. I don't expect a rise in payroll.  

Posted
27 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

From a simple curiosity standpoint. Yeah... It'll be interesting. 

No matter who it is. I don't expect a rise in payroll.  

I don't think I expect year over year payroll to rise but if the Wilfs are involved I would expect both the business side and personnel side to be run better.  And I'd think changes would be made, maybe not overnight because they'll want to get in and see how things are going before making suggestions.  But they run a very good organization in the Vikings.

Posted

I see another "right sizing" of payroll downward coming in the off-season.  The CBA is over after next season.  TV contract money is going to be different.  Ownership in flux.

Posted

If the same FO and management is in place does it mater at all what the lineup is or how much they spend.? The current organization has a poor record of developing  prospects".. How can that change?

Posted
On 8/25/2025 at 5:23 AM, Doctor Wu said:

I'm still a believer that the Twins CAN compete next season too, but that comes with conditions and worries. Having the same ownership and front office is NOT an encouraging thought, and until we have some TRUE plan that they are going to spend money on free agents or change the manager and coaching staff (yeah, I know, VERY unlikely to happen), I don't have much faith we will be more than a .500 team at the very best. I believe in many of our prospects, but if they can't out-perform what we've seen from the likes of Lewis, Lee, Larnach and company this season, then I think it's time for a REAL rebuild. 

The real problem is that no matter how hard Falvey tries, no Free Agent wants to sign with the Twins.  This team is so far beyond insanity that FA’s are just going to pass. And FA he can sign will come with the “I’m signing with the losers” premium price tag. 
 

There are zero FA’s out there that trust a single word out of Falvey’s mouth.  

And there are few players that want to play for Rocco.  Evidence:  Twins players last few years and comments from departing players.  
 

 Good luck with the off-season!  

Posted
On 8/25/2025 at 11:24 AM, USAFChief said:

They gutted the pen and didn't add much to anything else for 2026.

We don't know what the 2026 team will look like yet, but if it's comprised largely of players currently in the organization, I don't see how they compete. They haven't managed it with these players AND the bullpen in 2 years, how will they next year?

That’s very simple. Chief:  replace the coaches!!!!

Posted

Find out whatever it is that is causing talent to plateau at the AAA level and change that. No amount of next big things can come up if they just flop after a few weeks at MLB. 

This team would have looked much better if Julien Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Lewis, Kiersey Jr, Gasper, McCusker, (which others?) would have kept progressing instead of falling flat.  Something there looks really really not right. 

Posted
58 minutes ago, JADBP said:

The real problem is that no matter how hard Falvey tries, no Free Agent wants to sign with the Twins.  This team is so far beyond insanity that FA’s are just going to pass. And FA he can sign will come with the “I’m signing with the losers” premium price tag. 
 

There are zero FA’s out there that trust a single word out of Falvey’s mouth.  

And there are few players that want to play for Rocco.  Evidence:  Twins players last few years and comments from departing players.  
 

 Good luck with the off-season!  

Good lord. Yeah, Minnesota might not be the premium place to play, but saying that no free agents will sign with them is a stretch. Falvey hasn't been successful for the last few years, but it's mostly because players within the organization haven't developed. Yes, losing makes people dwell on the negative and there's probably a lot of side eye going on in the Twins' clubhouse, but $$ speak loudly and some free agents will be looking for work and take an offer from the Twins, particularly bullpen guys, since they will have a lot of opportunity.

14 minutes ago, Muppet said:

 

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Find out whatever it is that is causing talent to plateau at the AAA level and change that. No amount of next big things can come up if they just flop after a few weeks at MLB. 

This team would have looked much better if Julien Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Lewis, Kiersey Jr, Gasper, McCusker, (which others?) would have kept progressing instead of falling flat.  Something there looks really really not right. 

I'd stop with the first five who were high draft choices or who had impressive rookie seasons (Julien). Keirsey Jr., Gasper and McCusker were older when promoted and never regarded as future stars or even certain to be major leaguers.

First round choices Larnach, Martin (by the Blue Jays) and Lewis haven't lived up to their billing overall. Lewis and Miranda haven't been good since the All-Star break in 2024 and Julien hasn't been good since April of that year. You can probably add first round choices Lee and Wallner to a list as not meeting overall expectations as well. That's a big share of the position player roster.

Posted
4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I see another "right sizing" of payroll downward coming in the off-season.  The CBA is over after next season.  TV contract money is going to be different.  Ownership in flux.

Pretty much how I see it. It seems the Pohlads want to wait until there is labor peace to sell, figuring they will get a much bigger selling price then. In the meantime, damn the fans, they are going to cut payroll and sell hope.

Posted

Twins need major shakeup this offseason!!! And it’s going to happen!!! Bring up culpepper/jenkins and Rodriquez-C ya to larnish/jeffers-Royce needs to step it up next season or he’s gone!!! We have starting pitchers that are ready to step up replacing Ryan/Ober! 

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