Meet the Twins Prospect Who's Closing in on a 30/30 Season—and on the Majors

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/The News-Press/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s time to start paying Kyler Fedko some attention. If the season ended today, he’d undoubtedly be an organizational top three minor-league hitter in 2025. He even has an outside shot at a 30/30 season; that's the scale of his power-speed blend.

Fedko was an unheralded draft selection. He was taken in the 12th round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of UConn and was signed to a $125,000 bonus. He ranked 497th on Baseball America’s pre-draft big board. He was a standout player in college, winning the Big East player of the year in 2021 while hitting .410 and cranking 12 home runs. His pre-draft scouting report noted that ‘scouts are unsure whether he’ll be able to sustain his production with wood bats or against better pitching’.

The young outfielder has fallen into a strange pattern throughout his five-year minor-league career. Time and again, he goes to a new level of minor-league ball and struggles. The next year, he repeats it—and crushes it.

Level	Year	wRC+
A	2021	82
A	2022	155
A+	2022	98
A+	2023	136
AA	2024	84
AA	2025	140
AAA	2025	183 (through 08/20)

That pattern persisted in the early going in 2025, when Fedko made the adjustment to Double-A pitching. In 88 games, he hit .253/.375/.494, with 20 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a walk rate north of 15%. Sheesh. Only, something is different this time around. For the first time in his career, Fedko has stepped up a level and hasn’t skipped a beat.

It’s only been 16 games at Triple-A St. Paul, but Fedko hasn’t taken long to adjust. He’s hitting .358/.429/.687, with 5 home runs, 5 stolen bases, and a 183 wRC+. He’s done that while maintaining a respectable 20.8% strikeout rate. So, what’s the outlook here?

Well, he’ll almost certainly cool off. Fedko is running a .404 BABIP since his promotion. His 98th-percentile wOBA is outpacing his 36th-percentile xWOBA significantly. But what might the role be here? He’s at least given himself a chance at reaching the big-league level. (Insert your own joke about the Twins never acquiring a right-handed hitting outfield bat here.) Actually, the joke's on you, Fedko has reverse splits, with an .824 OPS against lefties in 2025 versus a .925 OPS against righties. Even so, I think he’s earning an audition as a bench bat for 2026.

What are the warts in Fedko’s profile? First, he doesn’t hit the ball very hard. These are limited sample sizes from Triple A, but a MaxEV of 107 mph is pretty uninspiring for the level. How, then, has he gotten to so much power? Fedko is a master at pulling the ball in the air. Entering games on Tuesday night (in which he went 5-5), Fedko had a Pull Air% of 22.7%, good for 95th percentile in Triple A. Combine that with a line drive rate that’s up about 7% in 2025, and excellent in-zone contact (87.5%) and Fedko punishes anything in the zone to the pull side.

There’s a tendency to expand the zone, though. Fedko chases at a rate north of 30%. This is likely something that big-league pitchers would exploit. He chases breaking pitches plenty, offspeed pitches even more, and he’s vulnerable at the top of the strike zone.

Defensively, it's a solid profile. He's played the majority of his reps in Triple A in left field. It's a good (and accurate) but not outstanding arm. Even so, I think he clears Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner in defensive value.

The outfield for 2026 seems fairly set, but there's an opening there. Byron Buxton and Wallner are locks. Alan Roden (underwhelming debut aside) should get the first crack at the final starting spot. Larnach doesn’t hit well enough to outpace his supplementary tools. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. doesn’t hit enough, period. Martin’s supplementary tools aren’t that supplementary. Enter Kyler Fedko. I don’t think he’d need to hit that well to be useful. An outfielder with positional versatility, some speed, and pop is a viable candidate to be a fourth outfielder in 2026.

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[HrbieFan]

Why is Wallner a lock? What has he done, besides hit a few long HRs? Wallner is horrible at best in the OF, Fedko runs circles around him there. Wallner should be a DH/1B 

[Cory Engelhardt]

27 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Why is Wallner a lock? What has he done, besides hit a few long HRs? Wallner is horrible at best in the OF, Fedko runs circles around him there. Wallner should be a DH/1B 

Especially with Jenkins on the way, I think seeing if Wallner could take a 1B in the next year or so makes a lot of sense.

[mikelink45]

Roden gets the choice?  No put Fedko or one of the other young prospects in.  I don't care that Roden is supposed to show how smart our FO is.

[MinnInPa]

55 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Why is Wallner a lock? What has he done, besides hit a few long HRs? Wallner is horrible at best in the OF, Fedko runs circles around him there. Wallner should be a DH/1B 

you beat me to it !! wallner is never gonna be a lock to make this roster

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Roden gets the choice?  No put Fedko or one of the other young prospects in.  I don't care that Roden is supposed to show how smart our FO is.

They're the same age, Fedko slightly older, and Roden has been better than Fedko every step of his career. But you're willing to fully quit on Roden. Because why? 

 

[Dman]

Great write up Jamie!  That chase and lack of contact on breaking stuff is concerning.  The home run I saw him hit the other night looked like a fastball slightly low down the middle of the plate. Still for all that chase you would think the walk rate wouldn't be this good.  His swing is short and quick so not too surprised the exit velo's might not be great, but it is a quick swing kind of like Keaschall in that regard and he seems to make a lot of contact with it..

I never know what to think about these types of pop up late players.  Prato had a great AAA year and never duplicated it.  McCusker had two incredible months and has fallen back to earth.  Even old Friend Helman had great AAA numbers and looks pedestrian this year.

Still Fedko has been steady all year with no injuries to mess with his numbers. I don't know why I fall in love with these type of players.  I guess the stats hook me.  His defensive versatility and right handed bat should get him his shot.  Hopefully he can take advantage of it as he is the perfect fit for this team at this time.  There is a glut of outfielders though and Gabby will need to be added the end of this year so someone has to be removed for Fedko to get on. Not sure who that might be at this time, but there isn't gonna be room for all of them.

[mikelink45]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

They're the same age, Fedko slightly older, and Roden has been better than Fedko every step of his career. But you're willing to fully quit on Roden. Because why? 

 

I am ready to see a hot hand given a chance - if he fails Roden can step back in.

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Especially with Jenkins on the way, I think seeing if Wallner could take a 1B in the next year or so makes a lot of sense.

Understand the logic, but nobody’s searching for a .215 hitter that may hit 30 HR’s IF he can stay healthy. That’s Rowdy Telez or the like - just doesn’t seem like something to build around.

Where’s Emma & better yet, Gonzalez in the potential OF pecking order.

To me, Outman has a much better shot than Roden.

[Rufus]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Especially with Jenkins on the way, I think seeing if Wallner could take a 1B in the next year or so makes a lot of sense.

Wallner to me nothing more than a home boy, white, Sano.  

[FlyingFinn]

Most everyone was excited about McCusker earlier this year and now we hear crickets. I'm just very leery about a 1 year wonder (granted, it has been a really fantastic year) who has a 30% chase rate. I'm all for giving a Fedko a shot now through the end of the year. But, like McCusker, that's probably his only chance and could even be DFA'd this winter if he doesn't do well. Fair, no. Realistic, yes.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Wallner has played himself out of a lock, but he is still cheap with potential. 1B would be a waste of his arm, but might be his best long-term opportunity.

As of now, the only real OF lock is Buxton, everyone else can play their way into or out of a position. I could easily see the Twins giving Fedko a shot. I am not worried about age, history is littered with many players that did not blossom until their late 20's. He is not really hard-blocked by anyone (though there are flashier names ahead of him). His secondary numbers may give pause, but if he continues to find a way to provide average-ish offensive production to go with his average defense, he will find a spot somewhere.  

[chpettit19]

His best bet for a 40-man spot next year may be not being added until after the season so the decision is made off only minor league info. If I'm the Twins, I'm doing a "lemon test" on him the rest of the year. I'd do Larnach a solid and DFA him now and see if any playoff team wants him. He's not going to be on this team next year and you're not getting anything for him this offseason. Giving him ABs the rest of the year isn't helping this team moving forward. Let him see if he can snag a bench role with a contender. Then I'd fill his spot with Fedko and give him a 1-month tryout. Carrying him on the 40-man all offseason without even seeing what he looks like against MLB pitching feels like a wasted opportunity during a lost season.

I'd also get Gasper out of here and bring up Cardenas or Pereda (preferably Cardenas). I'd DFA Clemens and bring up McCusker. Stop wasting ABs on guys you know aren't part of the future. What are you gaining? You have 40-man/Rule 5 decisions to make. F'ing gain data on the guys you're going to have to make decisions on and quit messing with guys who'll be in their 30s and you know can't fill roles adequately. Chances are very high McCusker has no future and Pereda and Cardenas aren't good enough to be your backup catchers next year but gain MLB data on those hypotheses because you know Gasper and Clemens aren't already.

Fedko is likely Prato, Helman, Keirsey, Contreras, etc. 2.0. He very likely isn't good enough to be an MLB player. But this is a lost season. Fitzgerald looks, to me, like he can play a utility/backup role in the bigs and is worth being on a 40-man for the minimum. Keirsey isn't good enough (boy was I wrong on that one) for even that role. Test Fedko. If he looks completely and utterly overwhelmed you can DFA him without much fear that he'll be claimed. If he looks like he has a chance then you've made your decision based on actual MLB data.

If you don't care/already plan to lose him, then who cares, I guess.

[rdehring]

Thanks for this post, Jamie.  Found it interesting, very interesting.

LaValle E. Neal III had a wonderful piece in today's Strib.  The lead was that the Twins moves are not over.  Nor should they be.  Talks about players who will likely be moved because they haven't performed like the Twins expected.  Or maybe hoped.

Amongst that group were both Wallner and Larnach.  Talks about many believing you need 1,500 at bats to determine what type of hitter a player is.  Well, Larnach has now exceeded that so the Larnach we see is who he will likely be.  Same to some extent with Wallner.  With all the highly touted prospects on the horizon, this duo along with Julien and a few pitchers may be leaving Target Field prior to opening day.

As for Fedko, love what he is doing this year.  What I find surprising about so many comments is how people here are down on Rodon.  The kid has had a handful of at bats with Toronto/Twins.  But take a look at his minor league numbers.  If he had been in our organization, people here would be claiming he is our next super star.  I know my Wisconsin background (kid is from Middleton where my office was before moving here 40 years ago) makes me biased, but this kid has a chance of being very good.  It also appears he has good speed and plays good defense, something both Larnach and Wallner do not do. 

I also do not think that Keirsey should be written off.   He has excellent speed and is very good in the outfield at all three positions.  He has hit very well in the minors, although with minimal power.  I don't think we should be down on him because he hasn't hit for the Twins.  No one can be expected to hit well when getting what was it, two or three at bats a week?

 

[LambchoP]

I would say Buxton is the only lock for our 26 OF. Wallner and Larnach are too inconsistent and are not good defensively, plus they are both LH making both of them redundant. Not sure Martin will hit enough. Why not give Fedko an audition this year. Maybe we get lucky and he's the RH OF bat we need. Plays good D, hits for power and steals bases. Sounds exactly like what we need. Give him a chance, what have we got to lose?

[jmlease1]

The chase rate is the most concerning thing with Fedko, and it's very fair to worry about how he does against breaking/offspeed stuff. MLB teams will put together a book on a player very quickly, and if he shows he can't hold off on breaking pitches out of the zone and struggles with offspeed stuff, he stop seeing much in the way of hittable fastballs.

But he's done a great job this season of taking advantage of his opportunities. I don't mind a player being pull-happy if it's getting him the results he needs, and this season has been encouraging. The fact that he hasn't needed an offseason adjustment period in his promotion to AAA seems to be a good sign that he's figured some things out, even if that BABIP will bring him back down to earth eventually.

He's giving himself a chance, and should get a look in spring training. Roden will have an advantage in that it looks like he can handle CF and I'm not sure Fedko can, but Fedko is making a case for himself as a hitter.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

His best bet for a 40-man spot next year may be not being added until after the season so the decision is made off only minor league info. If I'm the Twins, I'm doing a "lemon test" on him the rest of the year. I'd do Larnach a solid and DFA him now and see if any playoff team wants him. He's not going to be on this team next year and you're not getting anything for him this offseason. Giving him ABs the rest of the year isn't helping this team moving forward. Let him see if he can snag a bench role with a contender. Then I'd fill his spot with Fedko and give him a 1-month tryout. Carrying him on the 40-man all offseason without even seeing what he looks like against MLB pitching feels like a wasted opportunity during a lost season.

I'd also get Gasper out of here and bring up Cardenas or Pereda (preferably Cardenas). I'd DFA Clemens and bring up McCusker. Stop wasting ABs on guys you know aren't part of the future. What are you gaining? You have 40-man/Rule 5 decisions to make. F'ing gain data on the guys you're going to have to make decisions on and quit messing with guys who'll be in their 30s and you know can't fill roles adequately. Chances are very high McCusker has no future and Pereda and Cardenas aren't good enough to be your backup catchers next year but gain MLB data on those hypotheses because you know Gasper and Clemens aren't already.

Fedko is likely Prato, Helman, Keirsey, Contreras, etc. 2.0. He very likely isn't good enough to be an MLB player. But this is a lost season. Fitzgerald looks, to me, like he can play a utility/backup role in the bigs and is worth being on a 40-man for the minimum. Keirsey isn't good enough (boy was I wrong on that one) for even that role. Test Fedko. If he looks completely and utterly overwhelmed you can DFA him without much fear that he'll be claimed. If he looks like he has a chance then you've made your decision based on actual MLB data.

If you don't care/already plan to lose him, then who cares, I guess.

Larnach is still auditioning for a spot. He is young, cheap, and the bigger names behind him are not ready yet.
Clemens is auditioning for a spot. Him having success this year puts him in line for a 1B/utility role next year.
Gasper (believe it or not) is auditioning for the backup catcher role next year. The Twins need to see what he brings defensively behind the plate before jettisoning him (they know what Pereda and Cardenas bring to the table).

McCusker, Keirsey, a handful of other guys are the ones that could be DFA'd, as they have no real future Minnesota. They are the textbook definition of organizational depth.

My guess is that because the Twins will probably have the lowest payroll in MLB next year (after trading Ryan and Lopez), Fedko will be given every opportunity in Spring Training to find a spot.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

They're the same age, Fedko slightly older, and Roden has been better than Fedko every step of his career. But you're willing to fully quit on Roden. Because why? 

Because Roden was bad for a week. If they bring up Fedko and he has a bad first 20 games the same fans will be ready to cut bait on him forever and bring up the next minor leaguer.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am ready to see a hot hand given a chance - if he fails Roden can step back in.

They actually have a name for that. It's called the "hot hand fallacy".

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I also do not think that Keirsey should be written off.   He has excellent speed and is very good in the outfield at all three positions.  He has hit very well in the minors, although with minimal power.  I don't think we should be down on him because he hasn't hit for the Twins.  No one can be expected to hit well when getting what was it, two or three at bats a week?

Keirsey really hasn't hit "very well" in the minors. His best OPS is 850 and he's always been older than average for each level. He's hit "okay" in the minors and was horrible in the major leagues. He only got two or three at-bats a week because his manager was smart enough to realize that he can't hit. I don't see any reason to keep Keirsey on the 40-man roster this offseason. There are dozens of guys just like him in the minors.

[Road trip]

22 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Thanks for this post, Jamie.  Found it interesting, very interesting.

LaValle E. Neal III had a wonderful piece in today's Strib.  The lead was that the Twins moves are not over.  Nor should they be.  Talks about players who will likely be moved because they haven't performed like the Twins expected.  Or maybe hoped.

Amongst that group were both Wallner and Larnach.  Talks about many believing you need 1,500 at bats to determine what type of hitter a player is.  Well, Larnach has now exceeded that so the Larnach we see is who he will likely be.  Same to some extent with Wallner.  With all the highly touted prospects on the horizon, this duo along with Julien and a few pitchers may be leaving Target Field prior to opening day.

 

 

I usually hear 1000 at bats, but if 1500 is the new standard Wallner isn't even half way to 1500 yet.  He should mostly DH by '26 or '27, but that's fine as nobody is blocking him there.  It might be with the Twins, or he may be traded because it is pretty clear that no current player except Buxton is guaranteed to be here by this time next year.

Fedko... well, he's another older prospect that has sometimes performed well in the minors.  I look at his development path and kinda see similarities to Mark Contreras.  Much like Contreras he's been a slow riser. Finally mastering AA at age 25 doesn't inspire great confidence.  Like Contreras he has some speed and power, and could perhaps be an emergency CF and 4th outfielder?  Contreras of course didn't last long with the Twins, and perhaps wasn't quite as good a hitter.... so Fedko is likely worth a look in MLB at some point next year, or maybe even in September if spots open up, but I think there are better OF prospects in the system who should be ready by '27 if not sooner. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Larnach is still auditioning for a spot. He is young, cheap, and the bigger names behind him are not ready yet.
Clemens is auditioning for a spot. Him having success this year puts him in line for a 1B/utility role next year.
Gasper (believe it or not) is auditioning for the backup catcher role next year. The Twins need to see what he brings defensively behind the plate before jettisoning him (they know what Pereda and Cardenas bring to the table).

McCusker, Keirsey, a handful of other guys are the ones that could be DFA'd, as they have no real future Minnesota. They are the textbook definition of organizational depth.

My guess is that because the Twins will probably have the lowest payroll in MLB next year (after trading Ryan and Lopez), Fedko will be given every opportunity in Spring Training to find a spot.

He isn't "cheap." They're not paying him $4-5 million in arbitration next year to be a no defense, no speed, platoon bat with a .783 OPS against righties. He's not going to be on this team next year. There's no more audition. He's done.

If Clemens is still auditioning there's no point in watching this team until maybe 2027. He'll be 30 next year. He had a great month with a couple other hot weeks mixed in. He hasn't "had success." His numbers aren't good. He has a 95 OPS+. What does a below average bat, 30-year-old 1B bring us?

Gasper can't catch. He can't. This is nonsense. What are we even talking about? They've watched him catch in AAA. Now every Twins fan who's still tuning in has seen that he darn near has to crow hop to get the ball to second on his throws. If they know what Pereda and Cardenas bring to the table they know even more what Gasper brings. Or should.

What are we even talking about here? This is the problem with the Twins. These guys are not good. They're not good enough to be auditioning for anything. Pretending they are is the problem. Pretending Kepler was a top 5 in the lineup bat was the problem. Pretending Larnach was/is a top 5 in the lineup bat was/is the problem. The talent evaluation by the FO is awful. But they're going to get it right on Larnach this time because of the money. 

This lineup hasn't been good enough for a long time. And it's because they keep thinking/hoping/wishing/something that guys who aren't good enough suddenly will be or actually are good enough. Kepler was a 7-hole hitter on a good team. Larnach is a 7-hole platoon bat on a good team. But the Twins keep going into the year convinced they're set and ready to win because they have these guys in the top 4 or 5 of their lineup. It's why they keep "underperforming." But they aren't bringing Larnach back. They won't pay him 4-5 mil next year.

Yes, there's a ton of DFA candidates on the 40-man. But Larnach, Clemens, and Gasper should be right at the top of the list with them.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because Roden was bad for a week. If they bring up Fedko and he has a bad first 20 games the same fans will be ready to cut bait on him forever and bring up the next minor leaguer.

Fans are fickle. 

Fact is, Fedko is something like 11th on the organizational OF depth chart:

Buxton
Wallner 
(Roden)
Larnach
Outman
Martin
Jenkins
Rodriguez
Gonzalez
Mendez
Fedko
Keirsey
McCusker

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Understand the logic, but nobody’s searching for a .215 hitter that may hit 30 HR’s IF he can stay healthy. That’s Rowdy Telez or the like - just doesn’t seem like something to build around.

Where’s Emma & better yet, Gonzalez in the potential OF pecking order.

To me, Outman has a much better shot than Roden.

Wallner, for everything with the batting average, still has a LOT of red in his baseball savant page. But I get what you are saying. 

I don't know about Emma. Hard to know what you have. Hopefully he can stay on the field.

Gonzalez, I've only heard ok things about this defense. From what I can tell he wouldn't be near the top of the pecking order on the defensive spectrum.

I guess I view Outman (if things work out ok) more like a Michael A Taylor/4th OF replacement than anything. Roden I view as a Larnach replacement until someone like Jenkins (or someone else) is ready.

[mikelink45]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They actually have a name for that. It's called the "hot hand fallacy".

There is another name - WHAT HAVE WE GOT TO LOSE?

[AKTwinsFan]

I think the Twins hopes of a postseason push are over this year. So why not call him up to try out? With Roden down, and only Austin Martin and Buck as righty bats we need more right handed outfielders.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If Clemens is still auditioning there's no point in watching this team until maybe 2027. He'll be 30 next year. He had a great month with a couple other hot weeks mixed in. He hasn't "had success." His numbers aren't good. He has a 95 OPS+. What does a below average bat, 30-year-old 1B bring us?

To be fair to Clemens, 1B isn't even his best position. A 95 OPS+ is plenty good enough for a utility player, which is what Kody Clemens is. He's only an everyday 1B on this team because they're desperate. On a good team he's your 10th best position player on the roster. The fact that they have a utility player as their everyday starting 1B tells you all you need to know about the Twins offense.

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

There is another name - WHAT HAVE WE GOT TO LOSE?

Development time for your best players. Service time for players who aren't ready yet. Actual players from your organization because you have to cut someone to bring someone else up. If their talent evaluation process becomes "throw players at the wall and see which ones stick" then they all need to go.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To be fair to Clemens, 1B isn't even his best position. A 95 OPS+ is plenty good enough for a utility player, which is what Kody Clemens is. He's only an everyday 1B on this team because they're desperate. On a good team he's your 10th best position player on the roster. The fact that they have a utility player as their everyday starting 1B tells you all you need to know about the Twins offense.

We shouldn't expect him to be a 95 OPS+ guy. He's a career 80 OPS+ guy. And he's been that ever since his hot 3 weeks in May. 

Anyone expecting anything but a replacement level player from Clemens is asking too much. 

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To be fair to Clemens, 1B isn't even his best position. A 95 OPS+ is plenty good enough for a utility player, which is what Kody Clemens is. He's only an everyday 1B on this team because they're desperate. On a good team he's your 10th best position player on the roster. The fact that they have a utility player as their everyday starting 1B tells you all you need to know about the Twins offense.

He's only at 95 because of 1 good month. He's not the 10th best position player on a good team. He was on a good team and got cut. Kody Clemens was out of this world in May and it's carried him for the season. Like Joey Gallo having a 100 OPS+ in 2023 because of his 1.000 OPS that April. Since the calendar flipped to June Kody Clemens has a .656 OPS. Is that the 10th best position player on a good team? Is that good enough for a utility player? Kody Clemens has not been good since May.