BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[Doctor Gast]

43 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The myopia around here. They developed Buxton, they developed Lewis (injuries are not the fault of the development staff). They developed Jeffers. They developed Wallner (and if you are going to complain, he has a 128 OPS+ for his career). They developed Ryan, they developed Duran, they developed Jax, they developed Ober, they developed Varland. Etc., etc, etc.

There are plenty of young players where the jury is still out. Books Lee is an example. They have plenty of highly rated prospects in the pipeline, including Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins. 
 

Tanner Swanson was the main one who developed Jeffers & others, but he's long gone. James was our hitting coach who individually helped many of our good hitters, but he's long gone. Joe Ryan gets a lot of his development outside the organization. How much has the coaches helped these players & how much is it them doing it on their own & natural talent? How many player that don't make it here but leave here & they become stars? I don't doubt that the pitching coaches are helping but what about them learning their positions, the fundamentals & etc. Where are the catchers we have developed since Jeffers (Jeffers at best is average defensive catcher when he's not worn down)? Where are all the 1Bmen & DHs from all the big bats we drafted high? And there seems a lot who falls through the cracks. 

[arby58]

19 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If preferring actual human journalism to AI slop makes me a grumpy old man then get off my lawn.  

I'm fascinated by those who view AI as something to be categorically disdained. Machine learning via AI comes from distilling the content produced by humans. Sometimes it is portrayed in ways that aren't accurate - sort of like humans.

I am a national master in chess. 20 years ago, the best 'AI' programs couldn't compete with the best human players. That ship has sailed - the best chess AI programs routinely beat even the best human players - even giving odds. 

Embrace change - or wait for the tire tracks on your chest and forehead.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

Tanner Swanson was the main one who developed Jeffers & others, but he's long gone. James was our hitting coach who individually helped many of our good hitters, but he's long gone. Joe Ryan gets a lot of his development outside the organization. How much has the coaches helped these players & how much is it them doing it on their own & natural talent? How many player that don't make it here but leave here & they become stars? I don't doubt that the pitching coaches are helping but what about them learning their positions, the fundamentals & etc. Where are the catchers we have developed since Jeffers (Jeffers at best is average defensive catcher when he's not worn down)? Where are all the 1Bmen & DHs from all the big bats we drafted high? And there seems a lot who falls through the cracks. 

You're shifting the goal posts. Now it is that they developed players, but those who developed them are gone? As if they died with the secret?

[awmonahan]

Agreed with the comments. I'd have preferred a trade for a prospect rather than a lame attempt to balance upside with near-term. This feels like an attempt to please all timelines that will result in middling returns across both the short- and long-term

 

[Dman]

9 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I disagree. Durans velocity is gradually coming down. He has relied upon his superior velocity. 
 

Here is my take on the trade, the good bad and the ugly.  We have heard of the sellers market and assumed we would get an overpay, by most metrics this seem like fair value for Duran which is disappointing for some. With such a high value for Duran his value depreciates immensely over time.  Like the Rays value is dependent on what the organization believes they can achieve. In SWR case the risk was a lack of velocity (which he never really gained until some recent improvements) for Ryan it was that he was a fastball only pitcher.  Like Ryan I think they will really start working on the secondary pitches. 
 

Regarding the catcher, the Twins seem to have some specific qualities they look for, and when they have taken a swing they hit. How many here complained when they took Jeffers in the 2nd round way above rankings, last year in the draft they took Diaw and Ferrer and both are looking solid. Ultimately the risk is you took an A to A+ catcher and not one in AA or AAA. 

I think they will really Twins have specific plans for both and likely value this higher than the trade calculators. 
 

Beyond the prospects I think then Twins had concerns on Duran continuing to be an elite close. Between reliever volatility, Durans decreasing velocity, and the trade value diminishing over time we did achieve pretty good value for him. 
 

The ugly is 2 fold. This does appear to be motivated by money. I stated in the Paddack trade that I didn’t think we were selling for monetary reasons, I can no longer state that. It seems pretty clear we are shedding salary. The other is we are tanking for draft capital. I really wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a top 5 pick in the draft. That has additional value to adding better prospects to the org, but I have always said baseball is highly determinant on if you got on a hot streak. Like the Braves who were light buyers a couple years ago they caught lightening in a bottle and won. This team had the talent to catch lightening in a bottle. They were good enough other than the fringe players. We are taking away that chance now likely for the next 2 years especially if we trade Ryan.  As of now it appears we are keeping Jax, which is an odd that it felt like we were in a rush to trade Duran. We still had time. The Twins are still listening.  If they do trade Ryan it really has to be for significant value otherwise the pitchforks are coming. 
 

On a brighter note, the minor league system is getting stocked very well. There are some real opportunities to use some prospect capital to help the big league team in the offseason like we have done in prior years.  Overall I think Falvey did pretty well, but it wasn’t the knock I tout of the park I thought he could achieve.  

Is his velocity coming down though?   i think he just threw 101 or 102 the other day. He just has trouble controlling his stuff when he throws harder IMO.  Heck he has trouble when just throwing 99.  I think he will be more like Chapman and keep his velocity longer than most.  He has big strong legs and a thick body and strong arm.  His biggest problem will be just staying in shape IMO.

The Twins have taken a lot of catchers and Jeffers is about the only one that worked out.  Granted they haven't taken a catcher as high as they took Jeffers since Jeffers so there's that.  I like the catcher they got in the Tigers deal, but the cost was significantly lower and he is a defense first catcher.  Tait is an offensive first catcher with very rough defensive actions.  So many of those guys never stick at catcher.  Granted the one thing he does have that some of those other offensive catchers generally don't have is a plus arm.  So that gives him a better shot than most.  My concern is that if he doesn't stick at catcher the Twins lost a ton of value there because if he is first baseman or DH that doesn't carry the same value as catcher and I don't think he would rate in the top 100 if he wasn't a catcher.  Read up on this guy and it seems almost every outlet says he might not make it as a catcher but he can hit.  Not a ringing endorsement to stay at catcher IMO.

Personally I don't think the Twins were concerned about Duran as a closer.  If you look at the numbers he is elite right now.  I think they had an opportunity to get something and of course as you noted they wanted to avoid paying him more money than they generally allocate to the pen.

The Twins aren't really tankers.  They will win more games than fans like me would like.  I would like them to tank as next years draft class is supposed to be good and pretty deep.  They won't get a supplemental 1st rounder so picking higher in the second round should help mitigate that.  I think the Twins will be lucky if they can be the 9th worst team, but we will see..

If there pen arms have value and they can get things they need then I think it just makes sense to trade them as I don't think they will have this kind of leverage next year.  So I get why they are doing it.  Still they will need to rebuild the pen if they do trade more arms.

If you follow the minors you will notice a lack of good to elite pitching from A ball to AA.  Though AA does have a few arms.  I think this years draft class will help some, but it would be nice if they traded for more arms as the system as whole needs more talent there.  

If Abel is a mid rotation arm then this trade will be worth it because it is hard to develop those.  Twins can easily develop number 5's. 2's and 3's don't grow on tree's.  Abel has known control issues and to mitigate that it looks like he might be catching too much of the plate now.  It sounds like he has elite stuff.  Now he just needs to hit his spots.  If he can't be a mid rotation arm odds are Twins got screwed in this deal. 

Tait could hit and that would change things.  Word is Twins scouts think he is going to make it and they have actually watched him unlike me who only gets second hand info.  If he ends up a good hitting catcher that would make this a good deal as well as that is very valuable.  He is so far away though that most of the guys will be gone or on their way out by the time he is coming up.

After seeing Boston I am not happy with type of players this FO had chosen in the past, but they do seem to be adding guys that can run and hit with power more now.  It would be nice if they could steal a few of those in trade as well.  It's not all doom and gloom and I hope I feel better about the other deals they make tomorrow.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

I'm fascinated by those who view AI as something to be categorically disdained. Machine learning via AI comes from distilling the content produced by humans. Sometimes it is portrayed in ways that aren't accurate - sort of like humans.

I am a national master in chess. 20 years ago, the best 'AI' programs couldn't compete with the best human players. That ship has sailed - the best chess AI programs routinely beat even the best human players - even giving odds. 

Embrace change - or wait for the tire tracks on your chest and forehead.

lol 

I stand by my disdain of AI slop replacing actual journalism.  Sorry you keep losing at chess.  

[Vanimal46]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

From an in game entertainment standpoint. We lost a lot. 

The Duran entrance was perhaps... the only moment of produced game experience dramatics to bring some energy into the place. 

With that gone... the produced entertainment trying to create energy will all fall on TC Bear. That's a lot of pressure for any Bear to bear.

I always bet on Louie the Loon. But, I can't say I rise to my feet as the racers hit the home stretch. 

Target Field might as well double up on profit as a funeral home for the next 2 months. 

[Vanimal46]

14 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I'm fascinated by those who view AI as something to be categorically disdained. Machine learning via AI comes from distilling the content produced by humans. Sometimes it is portrayed in ways that aren't accurate - sort of like humans.

I am a national master in chess. 20 years ago, the best 'AI' programs couldn't compete with the best human players. That ship has sailed - the best chess AI programs routinely beat even the best human players - even giving odds. 

Embrace change - or wait for the tire tracks on your chest and forehead.

Sounds like you’re not going to be a national master in chess much longer. Just like the journalists who were apart of mass layoffs because an AI program can slop together an article without getting paid money. You’re on the right side of history! 

[Sjoski]

This organization is doomed with Falvey in charge, the man has out done himself.

It’s baffling. Falvey was hired for his pitching development chops — yet:

He’s traded away Pressly,  who becomes a 2x All-Star and now Durán.

Got almost nothing MLB-ready in return,

Still hasn’t developed a single dominant homegrown starter.

This deal might surpass the Pressly trade in sheer value loss. Durán is better, younger, and cheaper than Pressly was in 2018.

The man has out done himself.

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sounds like you’re not going to be a national master in chess much longer. Just like the journalists who were apart of mass layoffs because an AI program can slop together an article without getting paid money. You’re on the right side of history! 

It's a title earned in human tournaments, so it's not going to go away. You call it slop - they used to say the same thing about accountants who used Excel rather than a 9-key keypads that produced paper tape output.  Time marches on - and productivity improves.

[Vanimal46]

Just now, arby58 said:

It's a title earned in human tournaments, so it's not going to go away. You call it slop - they used to say the same thing about people who used Excel rather than a 9-key keypads that produced paper tape output.  Time marches on - and productivity improves.

Why would I care about your human vs human accomplishments? You said yourself AI is way better. That’s pretty sweet. I like the computer more. 

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

This organization is doomed with Falvey in charge, the man has out done himself.

It’s baffling. Falvey was hired for his pitching development chops — yet:

He’s traded away two All-Star bullpen arms now. (Pressly ( 2018) and Durán),

Got almost nothing MLB-ready in return,

Still hasn’t developed a single dominant homegrown starter.

This deal might surpass the Pressly trade in sheer value loss. Durán is better, younger, and cheaper than Pressly was in 2018.

The man has out done himself.

You forget he traded FOR Duran. BTW, Duran has not been an All Star.

[arby58]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Why would I care about your human vs human accomplishments? You said yourself AI is way better. That’s pretty sweet. I like the computer more. 

Can't argue with that - of course, you have just defeated your own argument. In policy debate, they call that a turnaround.

[bunsen82]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

Is his velocity coming down though?   i think he just threw 101 or 102 the other day. He just has trouble controlling his stuff when he throws harder IMO.  Heck he has trouble when just throwing 99.  I think he will be more like Chapman and keep his velocity longer than most.  He has big strong legs and a thick body and strong arm.  His biggest problem will be just staying in shape IMO.

The Twins have taken a lot of catchers and Jeffers is about the only one that worked out.  Granted they haven't taken a catcher as high as they took Jeffers since Jeffers so there's that.  I like the catcher they got in the Tigers deal, but the cost was significantly lower and he is a defense first catcher.  Tait is an offensive first catcher with very rough defensive actions.  So many of those guys never stick at catcher.  Granted the one thing he does have that some of those other offensive catchers generally don't have is a plus arm.  So that gives him a better shot than most.  My concern is that if he doesn't stick at catcher the Twins lost a ton of value there because if he is first baseman or DH that doesn't carry the same value as catcher and I don't think he would rate in the top 100 if he wasn't a catcher.  Read up on this guy and it seems almost every outlet says he might not make it as a catcher but he can hit.  Not a ringing endorsement to stay at catcher IMO.

Personally I don't think the Twins were concerned about Duran as a closer.  If you look at the numbers he is elite right now.  I think they had an opportunity to get something and of course as you noted they wanted to avoid paying him more money than they generally allocate to the pen.

The Twins aren't really tankers.  They will win more games than fans like me would like.  I would like them to tank as next years draft class is supposed to be good and pretty deep.  They won't get a supplemental 1st rounder so picking higher in the second round should help mitigate that.  I think the Twins will be lucky if they can be the 9th worst team, but we will see..

If there pen arms have value and they can get things they need then I think it just makes sense to trade them as I don't think they will have this kind of leverage next year.  So I get why they are doing it.  Still they will need to rebuild the pen if they do trade more arms.

If you follow the minors you will notice a lack of good to elite pitching from A ball to AA.  Though AA does have a few arms.  I think this years draft class will help some, but it would be nice if they traded for more arms as the system as whole needs more talent there.  

If Abel is a mid rotation arm then this trade will be worth it because it is hard to develop those.  Twins can easily develop number 5's. 2's and 3's don't grow on tree's.  Abel has known control issues and to mitigate that it looks like he might be catching too much of the plate now.  It sounds like he has elite stuff.  Now he just needs to hit his spots.  If he can't be a mid rotation arm odds are Twins got screwed in this deal. 

Tait could hit and that would change things.  Word is Twins scouts think he is going to make it and they have actually watched him unlike me who only gets second hand info.  If he ends up a good hitting catcher that would make this a good deal as well as that is very valuable.  He is so far away though that most of the guys will be gone or on their way out by the time he is coming up.

After seeing Boston I am not happy with type of players this FO had chosen in the past, but they do seem to be adding guys that can run and hit with power more now.  It would be nice if they could steal a few of those in trade as well.  It's not all doom and gloom and I hope I feel better about the other deals they make tomorrow.

He is throwing significantly less pitches over 100 each year yes the e velocity is coming down. He still creates a lot of weak contact, if it begins to become louder contact you run into problems.  
 

in the low minors you have Dasan Hill and Soto and Bohorquez as high end young pitching prospects. As of now the mid round and late round pitching prospects have not panned out as well as say 2022. This current draft class should fix that issue with quality and quantity. 
 

As to Abel, there is clay to work with for a good starting pitcher.  Worst case you let him cut lose as a reliever and maybe he fills Durans spot. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

I have a friend from Philly and he says the Twins got screwed.

It’s always sunny in Philadelphia.

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

This organization is doomed with Falvey in charge, the man has out done himself.

It’s baffling. Falvey was hired for his pitching development chops — yet:

He’s traded away two All-Star bullpen arms now. (Pressly ( 2018) and Durán),

Got almost nothing MLB-ready in return,

Still hasn’t developed a single dominant homegrown starter.

This deal might surpass the Pressly trade in sheer value loss. Durán is better, younger, and cheaper than Pressly was in 2018.

The man has out done himself.

Ober.  You have Matthew’s and Festa who have talent. Was able to trade for Gray, Lopez and Ryan. Starting pitching isn’t a major issue for this organization. It’s consistent hitting. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

You were generous. I picked them if they were lucky 80 wins (& that's not hindsight). Not because the core was bad but because Falvey & Co is that bad. And they'll continue to be bad until Falvey is gone. They do practically nothing to help this club in the offseason & the deadline. They normally do more harm than good. & then the team has to suffer through the season. When will the Pohlads wake up?

The pohlads just don't care  , they once said the twins were a total system failure and fired Terry Ryan  ...

I think fans would respect the pohlads some if they would come out and say it again ...

THIS IS A TOTAL SYSTEM FAILURE  ...

[Doctor Gast]

We wonder why the players are so flat. Maybe it's because this FO  does nothing to make this club better & at times makes it worse. I'd be totally pissed if I were a Twin & this FO traded away an elite closer & got nothing that could help us now or in the near future. That they helped the other teams more than our own. Please, someone else take him so we can take advantage of him via trade. No wonder he's so well-liked in the league.

[Sjoski]

19 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You forget he traded FOR Duran. BTW, Duran has not been an All Star.

That's in support of gifting him away? That’s illogical.

Meant to say...Pressly was a 2x All-Star 

[bunsen82]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

We wonder why the players are so flat. Maybe it's because this FO  does nothing to make this club better & at times makes it worse. I'd be totally pissed if I were a Twin & this FO traded away an elite closer & got nothing that could help us now or in the near future. That they helped the other teams more than our own. Please, someone else take him so we can take advantage of him via trade. No wonder he's so well-liked in the league.

Seriously? Are you seriously being ignorant.  We used almost the entire 2021 draft to supplement the MLB team. You are ignoring the Arreaz deal, the Gray deal, even signing Correa, even though that feels like ages ago and seems to be causing us to make some of these decisions pre-maturely.  The anti Falvey crowd is getting louder and louder and show the frustration is much more than just a return on a trade of Duran. 

[T.O.]

41 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

... the produced entertainment trying to create energy will all fall on TC Bear. That's a lot of pressure for any Bear to bear

 

The Twins have lately had trouble bringing "pressure to bear" so I wouldn't look for much there.

[SwainZag]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We wonder why the players are so flat. Maybe it's because this FO  does nothing to make this club better & at times makes it worse. I'd be totally pissed if I were a Twin & this FO traded away an elite closer & got nothing that could help us now or in the near future. That they helped the other teams more than our own. Please, someone else take him so we can take advantage of him via trade. No wonder he's so well-liked in the league.

When the owners won't open the purse strings to add, what do you want to FO to do?  They won a playoff series and dropped the payroll $25M.  

Saying they got nothing of value to help us now or in the future is being extremely negative and reactionary unless you have a crystal ball.

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Can't argue with that - of course, you have just defeated your own argument. In policy debate, they call that a turnaround.

It was my attempt to discredit an important accomplishment that you’ve earned vs. a fellow human because some program is determined to be more efficient or “better”. I want humans to still matter, and AI within 2 years or less will overtake millions of jobs previously held by humans.  I am terrified about this technology disrupting the world. 

[Pykkman]

Why trade him now?   And for this?  What is the big picture here?   

[Maybe Next Year]

Whoop Dee Do! High end prospects that will never prosper under Baldelli! 

[Doctor Gast]

36 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You're shifting the goal posts. Now it is that they developed players, but those who developed them are gone? As if they died with the secret?

I'm not the one who moved the goalposts. What was important before is no longer important & has been substituted with HRs & OPS are important, nothing else is. What these good coaches had they never valued. They replaced them with terrible coaches that didn't refute the FO philosophy. Instead of firing these bad coaches they promoted them. It's no secret, just a difference in philosophy.

[T.O.]

38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Target Field might as well double up on profit as a funeral home for the next 2 months. 

The Twins situation has been grave for some time so got that covered.

[jkcarew]

4 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Abel 5.04 era this yr in 25 innings.

So…better than Festa and Matthews. And younger.

[jkcarew]

Don’t stop now. Sell! Sell! Sell!

P.S. I think a lot of posters here don’t know what ‘sell’ means.

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I don't get this 'failed at player development' mantra. Starting pitching was seen as a strength until injuries took its toll. They traded for Lopez (for a player they developed), but Ryan, Ober, SWR, Matthews, Festa, etc. are theirs, in terms of development.

They developed Duran, Jax, Varland among the power arms in the bullpen.

In the field, they developed Buxton, Jeffers, Lewis (sorry about injuries, that is not on development), Wallner. That's not 'failed at player development' when that is most of the core of the team.

Have you watched this offense at all this season… seriously… the defense is horrible, baserunning…. horrible (a ball off the wall a couple of days ago with men on 1st and 2nd no one out and we end up with the bases loaded and don’t score, ,that sums up the season) Walner Larnich, Jeffers all taken steps backwards, yet our team development is good… got it.