The Twins’ Replacement-Level Killers Killed the 2025 Season

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

 

Each year, Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs highlights players around the league whose production has dipped well below average at their positions in a feature known as the Replacement-Level Killers. In 2025, no team found itself more frequently mentioned than the Minnesota Twins.

Offensive inconsistency has been a recurring storyline all season, and one of the primary reasons is the presence of underperforming spots in the lineup. It’s one thing to struggle at one position. It’s another to get little production from five. That’s precisely where the Twins find themselves as they look to stay afloat in a tight American League playoff race.

First Base: France’s Bat Isn’t Carrying Its Weight
This past offseason, the Twins needed to replace Carlos Santana at first base, and signing Ty France for $1 million was a low-wattage move. He was coming off a down year split between the Mariners and Reds, and the hope was that a change of scenery might help. It hasn’t. France is hitting .248/.311/.353 (.664), good for an 83 OPS+. Even though his glove has improved, that type of bat just doesn’t cut it at a position built for offense.

Replacement Options: Kody Clemens has started receiving more regular reps at first base and has been more productive in limited action, but he’s also been heavily used at second base and in other utility roles. The Twins have internal options at St. Paul, including Jose Miranda, Edouard Julien, and Mickey Gasper, though each comes with question marks. Whether it’s defense, struggles at the plate, or a lack of big-league success, none of them provides a surefire fix.

Catcher: The Vázquez Void Grows
Ryan Jeffers continues to be a steady contributor with the bat, hitting .258/.352/.410 (.762) and maintaining an above-average 109 OPS+. Christian Vázquez, on the other hand, has seen his numbers plummet. After a solid defensive year in 2024, he has regressed both behind the plate and at it, slashing just .167/.236/.247 (.483) with a 34 OPS+. He’s been worth negative WAR in all three years of his contract with the Twins. 

Replacement Options: Gasper has been tearing it up in Triple-A (for the second consecutive season) with a batting average around .300 and 146 wRC+, but he’s hardly played catcher during his time in the majors and has yet to show he can stick at this level. Another option, Noah Cardenas, has shown a good offensive approach in the minors (130 wRC+), but his defensive grades remain below average. With multiple holes to patch, the Twins may not prioritize catcher, but it’s a clear weak spot.

Second Base: Still Searching for Stability
Second base has been a game of musical chairs. The season began with Willi Castro and Julien sharing time, but Castro missed time with an oblique strain, and Julien couldn’t stay above the Mendoza Line. Since then, Brooks Lee and Clemens have handled most of the work. Lee, a former top prospect, has struggled when playing second base, hitting for just a 39 wRC+ at the position despite much better numbers elsewhere. Clemens, meanwhile, has shown unexpected power and owns a 121 wRC+ with 12 home runs, but he’s primarily facing right-handed pitching and also seeing time at first base (see above).

Replacement Options: If Castro remains healthy, the Twins could continue to mix and match. However, if they hope to make a push in the second half, this is another position that could benefit from more consistency. Luckily, top prospect Luke Keaschall started a rehab assignment on Friday and could join the Twins before the end of the month. 

Third Base: Waiting for Royce
Coming into the year, the Twins were banking on Royce Lewis to be a difference-maker. Instead, they’ve had to wait. Two hamstring injuries, combined with long hitless streaks, have prevented him from getting into a rhythm. Overall, Lewis is hitting .211/.276/.296 (.571) with a 58 OPS+. Since June 3, though, he’s turned things around with a .296 average and a .749 OPS.

Replacement Options: The front office remains committed to giving Lewis time to get right. Lee has hit well while playing third, and Castro has filled in at times, but the Twins hope Lewis can stay healthy and take hold of the position.

Right Field: Wallner Still Trying to Find It
Matt Wallner was expected to build on his breakout 2023 and 2024 seasons. After all, he posted a combined 148 wRC+ in those two years and slugged 27 homers in just over 500 plate appearances. A mid-April hamstring injury set him back, and he hasn’t looked the same since returning. His overall line sits at .203/.297/.446 with a 101 OPS+, and his infield fly ball rate is one of the highest in baseball.

Replacement Options: Trevor Larnach has filled in with a steady if unspectacular line, and Castro has taken a few turns in right field as well. But once again, the Twins are left hoping that a talented bat can rediscover its form in the second half.

What Does This All Mean
Most teams can survive one or two lineup holes. Few can survive five. The Twins lead the league in Replacement-Level Killers appearances, and it’s no mystery why their offense has struggled to take off. Injuries have hurt. So has a roster construction that hasn’t provided enough high-floor options.

There’s still time to turn it around. Wallner and Lewis could heat up. Lee might settle in. Jeffers has been solid, and Castro is back in the mix. But as things currently stand, too many positions have failed to produce, and that’s why the Twins have hovered around the .500 mark.

If Minnesota wants to play meaningful games in October, they’ll need to either get more out of the players they have or make some tough decisions before the trade deadline. Because right now, the Replacement-Level Killers are killing their season.

 

 

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[Reptevia]

This is exactly what I predicted in the preseason. Too many question marks. 

[thelanges5]

No mention of Correa? 0 WAR and 91 OPS+

[LambchoP]

Twins have needed an everyday first baseman for some time now. Clemens looks like he can help the lineup with his power, but I think they need more production at first. Right field needs an upgrade as well. At least until Gabby Gonzalez, Jenkins, Martin, Fedko or E Rodriguez get here...

[Road trip]

28 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

No mention of Correa? 0 WAR and 91 OPS+

Also the DH spot, which has been mostly Larnach.  An OPS+ of 97 doesn't cut it there.

And while Bader has played superlative defense in LF, his 109 OPS+ is just sort of adequate for LF, and I'm not confident he will maintain that.

Other than Buxton, and lately Jeffers, nobody is hitting well enough for the Twins to contend.

[Blyleven2011]

You forgot number 6 , replacement killer , sorry I can resist ROCCO BALDELLI and CREW  ...

France started the season promising  but it hasn't been sustainable  , Lee has had his ups and downs , Vazquez hasn't hit as a twin but his baseball smarts have contributed , lewis might be turning things around but Wallner offense and defense has definitely been a big hurt  in the twins games , he looks way over matched at the plate , no confidence  just swing hard and hope he connects  ...

Why have all these minor league promising propects finding it hard to hit their stride in the ML , you wouldn't believe me of I told you ...

P.s. okay I'll tell you , number 6 ...

[LastOnePicked]

I think you got it right in the title: the season is already killed, not being killed. The Rockies losses sort of sealed the fate of this club for 2025.

It's hard not to wonder what this roster would look like under a different manager. But it's also possible that this is just a team clearly past its contention window, with too many players who just aren't reliable contributors.

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, all the explanations of these are on Fangraphs.....but ya, they are close to replacement at other spots. They also have the worst defense, by far, of any "contender." 

[rdehring]

I remain hopeful that our boys will get swept by the Dodgers, then drop 2 of 3 to Washington.  That will get them to July 27th with four days till the deadline.  Maybe then the FO will realize this team ain't gonna make it to the promised land and get serious about making some deals.  I would be elated if they at a minimum moved those not returning in 2025.  

Hopefully, they will get something of value in return.  But after thinking about all those past trades that were disasters, I just don't know.  But if they aren't trading for established major league pitchers who may be injured, there could be a better result.

[Road trip]

3 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I remain hopeful that our boys will get swept by the Dodgers, then drop 2 of 3 to Washington.  That will get them to July 27th with four days till the deadline.  Maybe then the FO will realize this team ain't gonna make it to the promised land and get serious about making some deals.  I would be elated if they at a minimum moved those not returning in 2025.  

Hopefully, they will get something of value in return.  But after thinking about all those past trades that were disasters, I just don't know.  But if they aren't trading for established major league pitchers who may be injured, there could be a better result.

Sometimes I have those thoughts too.

Other times I realize that Falvey wants to be employed next year, and with a team sale likely that would mean working for a new owner.  So, do the Twins need to make the playoffs this year for Falvey to impress the new owner and thus keep his job?  That might be his mindset. He's loudly broadcast that he believes in the core he has built.  Regardless of results this week he may go "all in", trading some prospects for an extra starter or bat, hoping to nab that last wild card spot.  

[Heiny]

Prediction:  Twins will become sellers but not get anything worth their salt.  Then go into the off-season and sign some cheap low level free agents who will be at or below avg.  They will struggle in '26' and we will have the same discussions.  Under performing stars with cheap and under-performing replacement players and a dodo for a manager.  And history will continue to repeat itself.  When did I become so negative?  My hope:  Twins will get new ownership, new front office, and new manager and coaching staff so we can start fresh.  Re-newed hope?

[In My La Z boy]

34 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Prediction:  Twins will become sellers but not get anything worth their salt.  Then go into the off-season and sign some cheap low level free agents who will be at or below avg.  They will struggle in '26' and we will have the same discussions.  Under performing stars with cheap and under-performing replacement players and a dodo for a manager.  And history will continue to repeat itself.  When did I become so negative?  My hope:  Twins will get new ownership, new front office, and new manager and coaching staff so we can start fresh.  Re-newed hope?

What a mess. I am sadly in agreement. I don't mind losing as much as I cannot stand playing poorly. Play well, get beat, no problem. We'll strap it on tomorrow and go get em.
I want to be a team like Milwaukee. I watched that series and marveled at the hussle, the teamwork, the moxy, the spirit. I didn't notice a great disparity in talent between us? I wish we had different leadership. Different front office and a different manager.
We don't have Dodger talent, but we have talent. At least Milwaukee talent. We could be better and we could certainly be more fun to watch, win or lose. Hated to see the Tiger organization just fly by us. That's on Falvey and Rocco.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, all the explanations of these are on Fangraphs.....but ya, they are close to replacement at other spots. They also have the worst defense, by far, of any "contender." 

On top of that the Dodgers TV crew said the Twins are the worst hitting team in the majors on fastballs 97 or above. 

[AceWrigley]

I think since 2020 the only home-grown position player to make the all-star game is Byron Buxton. And unless the team sale is a done deal except for the signatures and there is a shadow GM in place to approve big trades, I don't expect anything more than exchanging the short contract guys for prospects.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Twins have needed an everyday first baseman for some time now. Clemens looks like he can help the lineup with his power, but I think they need more production at first. Right field needs an upgrade as well. At least until Gabby Gonzalez, Jenkins, Martin, Fedko or E Rodriguez get here...

Kyler Fedko turns 26 on September 21st and currently is in AA playing in his 5th minor league season, He most likely will never be anything but a back up in the majors (that is if he ever makes the majors) (after last year he is lucky to still be in the minor leagues) 

Austin Martin is 26 in AAA, these are the type of guys (including like Eeles McCusker, Sabato), that fill out the last 1 or 2 spots on an active roster, not guys we or anybody should be hoping are anything more. Did we learn nothing from Keirsay?)

Jenkins, Erod, Keaschall, Gonzalez, Rosario, Culpepper, Winokur, DeBarge, De Andrade, Amick (if he can get out of high A) are the type of players we/they need to step it up and grab on fulltime jobs. Young talented guys exceeding expectations at their age for the league they are in. 

With that said doesn't mean I don't wish them all the best. 

[twinstalker]

This is true.  You could add Correa and Larnarch in there as super disappointing.  Buxton, Castro, Jeffers have done well, no one else, maybe Bader, I guess.

[P Meyer]

A competent organization would try to figure out why Lewis, Lee, Larnach, and Wallner are ALL struggling to adapt to the show and fix it. Not all of these guys are going to stick but at least one of them should. 

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

No mention of Correa? 0 WAR and 91 OPS+

You took the words out of my mouth. Correa is the biggest hole. He's the leader. If he's not producing, his leadership goes out the window.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

On top of that the Dodgers TV crew said the Twins are the worst hitting team in the majors on fastballs 97 or above. 

That's funny because it seems not too long ago. Twins were great against FBs but lousy against off-speed stuff. Maybe they over-compensated trying to hit the off-speed.

[rv78]

6 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

No mention of Correa? 0 WAR and 91 OPS+

Over-rated and over-paid. Been saying it since they resigned him. Over $37M this season for what they are getting is a joke. That much money should get you a guy that hits .320, 30HR, 100+ RBI's. Or at least 1 of those 3. He's never done any of them once much less all 3 combined. Good job Falvey.

[Doctor Gast]

Buck & Ryan are hot. Castro is doing pretty well. Some are OK, but injuries have hurt us Areas that are fragile should have been addressed, but haven't. Jeffers is doing well, but we don't want to ride that horse to the ground. Correa, Lewis, & Wallner are not hitting on all cylinders, maybe because they haven't been 100% & still trying to find their rhythm. But IMO, they are close & when they do watch out, we'd be a force to reckon with. 

I enjoy Plouffe's opinions. Like me, he believes in the Twins' core. He said the Twins brand should be smart baseball (like the Brewers). Focus should be on a lot of good, smart coaches (Many of the good coaches, Twins have let go & the bad ones have been promoted) & good scouts. 

IMO, Lewis has been disgusted with the INF coach because he wasn't helping him with his throwing (he was fired) & now with the hitting coach because he's not helping him get him out of his slump. The team has been flat. At times, they play good fundamental ball & do fine, but they relapse & play poorly. I will say it again, the problem isn't the core; it's management.

[Whitey333]

To me the problem is the core and the management.  The core for obviously not performing well and the management for doing a poor job of evaluating and training.  Apparently this young can't miss core isn't nearly as good as all the hype.  When we get new ownership they simply must dump falvey and baldelli sooner rather than later.  Then work on coaches and the organization.  It needs to clean house and get the stink out of the air.

[HelmetTip]

The most obvious article TD has published. Anyone who's watched more than a handful of games this year  will have come to the same conclusions. 

[LewFordLives]

No disrespect to Clemens. He has performed beyond expectations and can be an important part of this organization going forward. But if he is your everyday first baseman, then this is not a good team.

[Larry Janisewski]

On 7/22/2025 at 1:36 PM, In My La Z boy said:

What a mess. I am sadly in agreement. I don't mind losing as much as I cannot stand playing poorly. Play well, get beat, no problem. We'll strap it on tomorrow and go get em.
I want to be a team like Milwaukee. I watched that series and marveled at the hussle, the teamwork, the moxy, the spirit. I didn't notice a great disparity in talent between us? I wish we had different leadership. Different front office and a different manager.
We don't have Dodger talent, but we have talent. At least Milwaukee talent. We could be better and we could certainly be more fun to watch, win or lose. Hated to see the Tiger organization just fly by us. That's on Falvey and Rocco.

I still believe, on paper, the Twins are miles ahead of the Brewers. Yet the Brewers have the best record in MLB and we know where the Twins are. Brewer manager, Murphy, is getting all he can our of a bunch of unknown players.

[JADBP]

If the core is good or better than good, then it HAS TO BE the coaches.
 

 There are three sides to this coaching mess:  in game tactics, pregame strategy and player development/training.  We all watch just the first and grumble about the continuous substitutions.  I cannot comment on the pregame strategy but it doesn’t often show well. But player development and training is an abysmal failure!  It just seems like every player goes great guns up to AAA then flames out in the Biggs. That lands squarely on the coaches.  They are an abject failure at getting players from AAA to MLB!!!  When is the last time we had a player come from AAA and STICK?  Maybe Puckett?  
 

Sure there’s gonna be adjustments.  That’s the problem.  The players get to MLB and the coaches are helpless with adjustments.  Even big leaguers like Correa can’t seem to make adjustments.  How long did it take Buxton? We ave a bunch of players still trying to figure it out and some may never find it (Miranda, Julien).  Look at players like Sano, Gordon. Maybe bad drafts but never converted the hype to MLB. That’s ALL coaching. 
 

the players are not held accountable and the coaches are not held accountable for these failures.  Rinse and repeat. INSANITY to beloved this will change.