The Twins' Top Hitters Have Been Among Their Worst

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Twins hitting has not been good in 2025. As a team, they’re slashing .240/.309/.397, ranking 22nd in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging. That's landed them 20th in baseball in runs per game.

That the Twins could be one of the top offensive teams in MLB ahead of the season was wishful thinking, but there was some hope and belief that the Twins could rank in the top half of the league, at least. The plan seemed to be to have high-end pitching (which was going according to plan, until June) supplemented by enough hitting to win games consistently. But that hitting has not manifested.

The path toward competent hitting was reasonably clear. There were a handful of high-performing bats in a top-heavy lineup that needed to perform well, and the rest of the team needed to be functional, hovering around league average. The top bats—the bell cows—were to be Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Matt Wallner. The next couple hitters were probably a step down, but many anticipated a bounceback year from Royce Lewis would be necessary, and Trevor Larnach would need to repeat his quiet but solidly above-average production from 2024.

If those five could carry the lineup, and the bottom four spots could find ways to contribute on a day-to-day basis, the Twins could have an acceptable offense. Unfortunately, though, the “bottom-half” bats have been carrying the offensive load for most of the year. To put into perspective how the roles have flipped, let’s thumb through the primary 12 bats in the Twins’ lineup and compare their 2025 performance to their expected role, 2024 performance, and 2025 preseason projections via FanGraphs’s ZiPS, an imperfect but useful tool for comparison to how each player was expected to perform this season.

The selected hitting statistic here will be wRC+. 100 is exactly average—90 is 10% below average and 115 is 15% above average, for instance. To me, anything between 92 and 108 is average, but who cares what I think? I’ll also include OPS in case wRC+ makes you mad. They're sorted by the difference from their projected performance.

Royce Lewis, wRC+: 64 (.583 OPS), projected wRC+: 113 (-49% difference), 2024 wRC+: 107 (-43% difference)
Likely the hitter with the most questions ahead of 2025, Lewis finished his 2024 season about as poorly as any hitter can, especially in comparison to the first 100 or so games of his career between 2022 and the first half of 2024. The player whom the Twins most needed to have a bounceback year has spent much of the season on the injured list and has floundered—only ahead of one other regular Twins hitter in stats like wRC+ and OPS (I’m sure you can guess who, but don’t spoil the surprise for anyone else). He’s failed to come close to even his mediocre 2024 or the slightly above-average projection ZiPS had him at, let alone the hitter the team needed.

Carlos Correa, wRC+: 93 (.693 OPS), projected wRC+: 127 (-34% difference), 2024 wRC+: 154 (-61% difference)
Correa was an All-Star in 2024, but missed most of the second half due to plantar fasciitis that held him to only 86 (extremely productive) games. However, he was tied for the Twins’ most productive hitter on a rate basis and expected to have another very good offensive year, even if he didn’t reach the heights of 2024 again. Instead, he’s been below-average, far from the number-two hitter he was expected to be, and he’s headed toward a consistent spot in the bottom third of the lineup, which is especially disappointing given his contract situation.

Ty France, wRC+: 89 (.666 OPS), projected wRC+: 113 (-24% difference), 2024 wRC+: 93 (-4% difference)
Here we have the first disappointment who was in the middle range of hitters by projection. Acquired for just $1 million on a non-guaranteed contract, France has effectively replicated his paltry 2024 numbers and spent most of the year as a league-average hitter who produced mostly in clutch situations. He’s been a usable but not terribly productive bat that belongs in the back end of a lineup, but he plays first base, and many were hoping for something of a bounceback.

Matt Wallner, wRC+: 107 (.748 OPS), projected wRC+: 127 (-20% difference), 2024 wRC+: 154 (-47% difference)
The third of the top bats to sputter in 2025, Wallner hit well before an April hamstring strain caused him to miss a month and a half. He’s currently battling through the first prolonged slump of his career. Unlike Correa and Lewis, Wallner is still hovering around league-average, but if this cold stretch continues, he’s not far from dropping into the 90s. It’s a disappointing development for the Opening Day leadoff hitter.

Trevor Larnach, wRC+: 102 (.726 OPS), projected wRC+: 111 (-9% difference), 2024 wRC+: 120 (-18% difference)
Larnach is slightly underperforming his projections and 2024 performance, but a lot of that is due to his increased usage against lefties. He’s been awful versus southpaws, but has otherwise performed in line with his 2024 numbers, if not slightly better. Especially compared to the other three names from the big five we’ve looked at, it’s relieving to know he’s been at least close to expectations.

Brooks Lee, wRC+: 85 (.669 OPS), projected wRC+: 92 (-7% difference), 2024 wRC+: 61 (+24% difference)
Lee has been given the time to develop into a viable hitter in a utility infield role, and he’s come along well from his 2024 as he gets more time in the majors. He’s been basically what the Twins needed from him, and what ZiPS expected, though his approach is disappointingly ragged.

Ryan Jeffers, wRC+: 111 (.742 OPS), projected wRC+: 111 (0% difference), 2024 wRC+: 106 (+5% difference)
Jeffers has been more or less what as-expected. He can catch, and he’s been on the higher end of average, especially now that the hits have begun to fall. He’s not been the hitter he was in 2023, but he’s been useful and consistent.

Byron Buxton, wRC+: 152 (.925 OPS), projected wRC+: 130 (+22% difference), 2024 wRC+: 141 (+11% difference)
The only player in the top five who has lived up to his expectations, Buxton is heading for the All-Star game for the second time in his career after replicating his 2024 performance and outperforming the high expectations ZiPS had for him. He’s the only one of the big five who has clearly done what’s expected and needed from the team. I give them a 1.5/5 success rate (I’m sympathetic to Larnach). Buxton has been a treat.

Harrison Bader, wRC+: 115 (.767 OPS), projected wRC+: 95 (+20% difference), 2024 wRC+: 86 (+29% difference)
The three remaining overperformers on this list are guys who were expected to bat consistently in the bottom four, and their performance would be awesome complements to a robust top of the order. Instead, they’ve disproportionally carried the load. Bader has been tremendous this season, having one of his better overall seasons and performing in clutch moments, too. Not a ton of notes, other than asking where the Twins would be without Harrison Bader.

Will Castro, wRC+: 124 (.791 OPS), projected wRC+: 104 (+20% difference), 2024 wRC+: 107 (+17% difference)
Castro struggled out of the gate and is mostly restricted to second and third base or the corner outfield, but he’s earned his everyday designation and is hitting similarly to his first half of 2024, in which he was an All-Star. Great work from him all-around at the plate this season.

Kody Clemens, wRC+: 118 (.796 OPS), projected wRC+: 92 (+26% difference), 2024 wRC+: 90 (+28% difference)
Clemens has widely been held as the biggest revelation for the Twins, and comparing his performance to his past and projected numbers bears that idea out. After being acquired for cash considerations, Clemens has carried the Twins for stretches, including their 13-game win streak earlier this year. It’s unclear if he will continue to produce like he has, and his performance has dipped over the last month, but it’s important, and almost fitting to draw attention to this at the end. Mediocre hitters (as Clemens may very well be) are going to fluctuate. They can and do hit very well for stretches, and when that complements a cadre of very effective hitters, teams can reap the benefits. But if they are instead covering for those higher-ceiling, more established players, the team is in trouble. You can’t bank on players like Bader and Clemens providing offense. They need to be complementary players.

Christian Vázquez, wRC+: 39 (.493 OPS), projected wRC+: 72 (-33% difference), 2024 wRC+: 59 (-20% difference
I don’t care. Please don't put it in the internet that I care.

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[Fatbat]

The only real disappoints have been C4 and Lewis. If those two guys would have just had average type hitting, we would have likely won 10+ more games in the first half. They need to find their allstar side and display it the whole 2nd half to get us into the playoffs. 

[1985Fan]

Good statistical summary. We fans know this, but it’s good to confirm our thinking with the stats. There is a good argument to be made that the time has come to make decisions on some of the core pieces of this roster. 
It’s clear that Falvey thinks that this core is championship level. There is still a chance that they will prove him right this year, but it doesn’t look likely. This offseason is when FO is going to be forced to decide if Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, and Jeffers are part of the core going forward. There should be enough data to make the call now, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. They could stand pat at the deadline to give this roster all the time to prove if last years collapse was who they are or if that was a fluke. They’re stuck with Correa contract and they’re blessed to have Buxton signed. Time for fans to give Terry Ryan credit for drafting Buxton. 
I hope it’s new management making the decisions. I don’t have any confidence in Falvey making sound decisions about guys he’s drafted or signed to a contract. He’s too stubborn to admit mistakes and change direction. 

[D.C Twins]

I would never overtly root for any injuries.

But if they do happen at SS for any big payroll/high expectation teams.... give them Correa for whatever as soon as possible!

[Riverbrian]

Every year there is going to be a discrepancy between expected and actual in regards to each individual player. Pleyers ping pong up and down throughout the season and they ping pong year by year. It's hard to get it right.  

Right or Wrong (I'm not saying it's right or wrong)... the Twins will consistently play the long game in hopes of a better 2nd half from those they expect to perform when it's all said and done.

By long game I mean... they will ride with the players they expect to perform until they actually do... or the clock runs out on the season and they don't. Sometimes they bounce back... a lot of times they just don't.

It doesn't matter to me what everyone thinks of Kody Clemens. I wasn't comfortable with his acquisition at the time it happened and that also doesn't matter. Many are thinking he will turn back into a pumpkin eventually and maybe he will... maybe he won't but that also doesn't matter. On the year thus far. Only two players have an OPS over .800... Buxton and Clemens. 

In the past 30 days. Clemens has the 2nd highest OPS on the team. His batting average isn't amazing but 6 bombs in 50 AB's in the past 30 days (most of them clutch) and he has been our 2nd best hitter.

The key is 50 AB's in the past 30 days compared to Ty France with his 73 AB's in the past 30 days with a .228 OPS and an even worse .274 slug. 

Has Rocco finally chosen Clemens over France? Not entirely but Clemens did make 3 starts at 1B (plus 1 at 2B) in the past 5 games all vs. Righties. 2 for France in that time frame.  

Jeffers and Vazquez... Pretty much equal playing time as they split those catching duties right down the middle. One has a .468 slug over the last 30 days and the other has .098... I'll let you all figure out who is who but those catching duties remain split right down the middle with Jeffers getting some extra DH work against left handed pitchers. 

Correa and Lewis were supposed to hitters... Doesn't matter if they are not... They get every day playing just like they are. The Twins will stay with them until they prove the Twins right for playing them every day.  

Bottom Line: The Twins tend to choose the guys they like best and they sink or swim with them. 

They will absorb a lot of sinking waiting for the occasional swim. 

 

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Here's an optimistic/realistic slant on these numbers. The Twins are 47-49 with 2 of the top 3 starters hurt, 3 of the top 6 with the #1 out for a prolonged period, and 3 of the supposed top 4 hitters underperforming. You can squint and see the possible pitching improvement with Zebby coming back, SWR markedly improved, Festa getting better, Ober hopefully healing, and Paddack hopefully gone soon or in the bullpen. You can see enough pitching to be competitive. The secondary hitting is solid, Buxton is a stud, an Keaschall coming back will really help if his first 7 games weren't a mirage. 

Still, that's not enough to contend. It's pretty clear what has to happen for the Twins to contend - the three hitters underperforming have to hit. Correa, Lewis, and Wallner are the key to the second half of the season.  If they hit, we could make a run. If they don't, mediocrity is the best we can hope for if the pitching keeps us at or slightly over .500. 

SO, the good news is that if those 3 hit well, or even 2 of them well and one average, we could contend. The bads news is anything less than that probably isn't enough. Simple as that. 

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Every year there is going to be a discrepancy between expected and actual in regards to each individual player. Pleyers ping pong up and down throughout the season and they ping pong year by year. It's hard to get it right.  

Right or Wrong (I'm not saying it's right or wrong)... the Twins will consistently play the long game in hopes of a better 2nd half from those they expect to perform when it's all said and done.

By long game I mean... they will ride with the players they expect to perform until they actually do... or the clock runs out on the season and they don't. Sometimes they bounce back... a lot of times they just don't.

It doesn't matter to me what everyone thinks of Kody Clemens. I wasn't comfortable with his acquisition at the time it happened and that also doesn't matter. Many are thinking he will turn back into a pumpkin eventually and maybe he will... maybe he won't but that also doesn't matter. On the year thus far. Only two players have an OPS over .800... Buxton and Clemens. 

In the past 30 days. Clemens has the 2nd highest OPS on the team. His batting average isn't amazing but 6 bombs in 50 AB's in the past 30 days (most of them clutch) and he has been our 2nd best hitter.

The key is 50 AB's in the past 30 days compared to Ty France with his 73 AB's in the past 30 days with a .228 OPS and an even worse .274 slug. 

Has Rocco finally chosen Clemens over France? Not entirely but Clemens did make 3 starts at 1B (plus 1 at 2B) in the past 5 games all vs. Righties. 2 for France in that time frame.  

Jeffers and Vazquez... Pretty much equal playing time as they split those catching duties right down the middle. One has a .468 slug over the last 30 days and the other has .098... I'll let you all figure out who is who but those catching duties remain split right down the middle with Jeffers getting some extra DH work against left handed pitchers. 

Correa and Lewis were supposed to hitters... Doesn't matter if they are not... They get every day playing just like they are. The Twins will stay with them until they prove the Twins right for playing them every day.  

Bottom Line: The Twins tend to choose the guys they like best and they sink or swim with them. 

They will absorb a lot of sinking waiting for the occasional swim. 

 

 

 

Kody Clemens is a great example of the ping ponging you mention. Claiming he was their 2nd best hitter over the last 30 days is missing that he was one of their worst for most of the month of June. He had a .625 OPS in June with a .145 BA. He was awful the vast majority of that month. He hit 2 HRs in the Seattle series to help spike his OPS back up, but it'd been in the 400s for the 3 weeks before that. He had turned back into a pumpkin. Hardcore. But he was still getting significant playing time. Only 5 fewer PAs in June as his monster month of May.

He's actually an example of them sticking with someone through struggles and believing they'll be good again and the last 3 weeks (since the start of that Seattle series) he's had an OPS of .924. Carried by 5 HRs. Or an example of them just not having a very talented team and not having anyone else to put out there. But after his 3 week stretch of .466 OPS to start June he didn't deserve any PAs. Ty France had a .784 OPS in those same 3 weeks. 

I generally agree with the stance that the Twins stick with guys they believe will perform for far too long during the season (typically the full season if they brought them in during the offseason), but Kody Clemens isn't the example you think he is. He should've been cut during June. But now he should be playing every day. Baseball is a weird sport. And this is a team seriously lacking in established talent.

[1991]

Sad state of affairs.  Should get everything they can for anyone on the roster.  Duran throws a stinker inning last night and lowers his trade value. 

[tony&rodney]

Fielding statistics are rough and even then we know the Twins are well below average in the field. Yes, the Twins need more offense but continuing to use players in the outfield who cannot catch the ball with a pitching staff that is fly ball heavy doesn't make any sense. 

I sure hope one of Larnach/Wallner breaks out with the bat after the break, but I also wish they would only play in the field once a week at most. 

Falvey may be a super shy introvert, but someone in the front office needs to work the phones in the next few weeks.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Kody Clemens is a great example of the ping ponging you mention. Claiming he was their 2nd best hitter over the last 30 days is missing that he was one of their worst for most of the month of June. He had a .625 OPS in June with a .145 BA. He was awful the vast majority of that month. He hit 2 HRs in the Seattle series to help spike his OPS back up, but it'd been in the 400s for the 3 weeks before that. He had turned back into a pumpkin. Hardcore. But he was still getting significant playing time. Only 5 fewer PAs in June as his monster month of May.

He's actually an example of them sticking with someone through struggles and believing they'll be good again and the last 3 weeks (since the start of that Seattle series) he's had an OPS of .924. Carried by 5 HRs. Or an example of them just not having a very talented team and not having anyone else to put out there. But after his 3 week stretch of .466 OPS to start June he didn't deserve any PAs. Ty France had a .784 OPS in those same 3 weeks. 

I generally agree with the stance that the Twins stick with guys they believe will perform for far too long during the season (typically the full season if they brought them in during the offseason), but Kody Clemens isn't the example you think he is. He should've been cut during June. But now he should be playing every day. Baseball is a weird sport. And this is a team seriously lacking in established talent.

Correct and Clemens is probably only getting the opportunity to be stuck with because he had that two week stretch where he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Without that... he would be no different than Jonah Bride.  

That's why I can't fault them entirely for playing the long game. You kind of have to because trying to time the streaks is probably impossible. Want to bench Royce Lewis because he has been below terrible for a long stretch. You might sit him down right when he is just about to come out of it. Clemens is hot now... Clemens just went cold... Hey He's hot again. 

Clemens and everyone will go hot and cold over the course of a season. Dare I say it... Buxton will probably fall for a stretch this year.  

However, for these very same reasons... I will fault them when they glue someone to the bench because they don't know who is going to go Kody Clemens for a stretch. 

If you got a hitter in hot streak... keep playing them until they cool down. If you got a hitter in a rough patch... play him... just not as much. If a hitter reaches June hasn't woken up. You got to start thinking about alternatives and possibly acting on those alternatives.   

 

[mickster]

47 minutes ago, 1991 said:

Sad state of affairs.  Should get everything they can for anyone on the roster.  Duran throws a stinker inning last night and lowers his trade value. 

results were worse then the outing.   2 infield hits and a DP ball that got stuck in a glove.   Duran has high value, but trading him waves the white flag

 

[mickster]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Fielding statistics are rough and even then we know the Twins are well below average in the field. Yes, the Twins need more offense but continuing to use players in the outfield who cannot catch the ball with a pitching staff that is fly ball heavy doesn't make any sense. 

I sure hope one of Larnach/Wallner breaks out with the bat after the break, but I also wish they would only play in the field once a week at most. 

Falvey may be a super shy introvert, but someone in the front office needs to work the phones in the next few weeks.

I don't think tearing this down makes sense.   The Tigers are the class of the division, but Cleveland is struggling, KC isn't any better then the Twins and Chisox are a long ways off.     The early trade deadline is problematic in that too many teams are still in the hunt,   Castro is most likely gone, but if we trade him we put a big hole in our lineup as he can plug-in to so many positions.    David Festa and Erod are who I would use as trade bait.

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, 1991 said:

Sad state of affairs.  Should get everything they can for anyone on the roster.  Duran throws a stinker inning last night and lowers his trade value. 

Yup.  Sell.

[Parfigliano]

7 minutes ago, mickster said:

results were worse then the outing.   2 infield hits and a DP ball that got stuck in a glove.   Duran has high value, but trading him waves the white flag

 

They are in a terrible position.  It's time to sell and re-tool but nobody really wants Falvey being in control of trades.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Kody Clemens is a great example of the ping ponging you mention. Claiming he was their 2nd best hitter over the last 30 days is missing that he was one of their worst for most of the month of June. He had a .625 OPS in June with a .145 BA. He was awful the vast majority of that month. He hit 2 HRs in the Seattle series to help spike his OPS back up, but it'd been in the 400s for the 3 weeks before that. He had turned back into a pumpkin. Hardcore. But he was still getting significant playing time. Only 5 fewer PAs in June as his monster month of May.

He's actually an example of them sticking with someone through struggles and believing they'll be good again and the last 3 weeks (since the start of that Seattle series) he's had an OPS of .924. Carried by 5 HRs. Or an example of them just not having a very talented team and not having anyone else to put out there. But after his 3 week stretch of .466 OPS to start June he didn't deserve any PAs. Ty France had a .784 OPS in those same 3 weeks. 

I generally agree with the stance that the Twins stick with guys they believe will perform for far too long during the season (typically the full season if they brought them in during the offseason), but Kody Clemens isn't the example you think he is. He should've been cut during June. But now he should be playing every day. Baseball is a weird sport. And this is a team seriously lacking in established talent.

I believe what we see is them adhering to sample sizes in their decision making. They aren’t going to change their plan until the sample size is large enough for them to trust. Sometimes this is correct but it frequently makes them slow to react. 

[Major League Ready]

I think there is a path that keeps our chances alive this year while starting the roster reconstruction.

In:  Keaschall & Julien or Sabato   Out:  Kiersey and France.  It would be of great benefit to find out of one of Julien or Sabato is viable to fill 1B going forward.  I don’t see much downside to playing one of Clemens/Julien or Sabato over France.   I would also trade Castro and bring up either Martin or E. Rodroguez.  That would make an opening for one of the AA OFers that are currently performing well to move up to AAA.

I would trade Paddack if a decent return is available.  Brock Stewart or Coulombe would also be on the table but the return would have to be considerable.  Picking up a good AA or AAA catching prospect would be attractive.
 

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I think there is a path that keeps our chances alive this year while starting the roster reconstruction.

In:  Keaschall & Julien or Sabato   Out:  Kiersey and France.  It would be of great benefit to find out of one of Julien or Sabato is viable to fill 1B going forward.  I don’t see much downside to playing one of Clemens/Julien or Sabato over France.   I would also trade Castro and bring up either Martin or E. Rodroguez.  That would make an opening for one of the AA OFers that are currently performing well to move up to AAA.

I would trade Paddack if a decent return is available.  Brock Stewart or Coulombe would also be on the table but the return would have to be considerable.  Picking up a good AA or AAA catching prospect would be attractive.
 

Agree with the concept except I think Keaschall plays 1B. There's nowhere else to play him with the guys we have unless either Lewis or Lee goes to the bench. I would put in Keaschall for France and Martin or Julien for Keirsey depending on whether you want a RH hitting corner OF/5th OF, or another LH hitting 1B/2B. I would go with Martin, especially since he is tearing up AAA, but I could see either one as an add over Keirsey. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

I believe what we see is them adhering to sample sizes in their decision making. They aren’t going to change their plan until the sample size is large enough for them to trust. Sometimes this is correct but it frequently makes them slow to react. 

Oh, that's certainly my assumption on what it is. And I certainly understand the logic behind it. My problem with it is that the upside they're waiting on to reappear is so often league average, and while they're waiting on it to reappear they're getting unplayable results. 

Waiting out Royce Lewis' struggles because you think he's a star and once he's straightened out you're getting a .900 OPS bat? Cool. Give him a long runway. Waiting out a Kody Clemens or Ty France type month long .400-.600 OPS because you think they'll get back to a .675-.700 OPS? Not such a big fan of that. Sure, sometimes Kody Clemens will give you a magical month, turn back into a pumpkin, and then give you another 3 week stretch of random power surge. It's all a risk every time you make a roster cut decision. I'm guessing Dave Dombrowski isn't losing too much sleep over his Clemens decision, though.

[BillyBallLives]

Found this read to be a really good "state of the union" address for the Twins nation.

Unfortunately, all we can do for now is hope.

--  Hope Buxton stays healthy.
-- Hope Lopez, Ober, Zebby comeback healthy enough to contribute.
-- Hope Royce discovers his former mojo. 
-- Hope the bats wake up. Wallner, Larnach, etc. 
--  Hope new owners bring urgency.
-- Hope Falvey doesn’t blow it again.

 

BTW… "hope" is not a strategy, but for now, it's all we have.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

I don't think tearing this down makes sense.   The Tigers are the class of the division, but Cleveland is struggling, KC isn't any better then the Twins and Chisox are a long ways off.     The early trade deadline is problematic in that too many teams are still in the hunt,   Castro is most likely gone, but if we trade him we put a big hole in our lineup as he can plug-in to so many positions.    David Festa and Erod are who I would use as trade bait.

Status quo guarantees a .500 record as the goal year after. A larger problem (perhaps just me only) is that the current roster plays poor defense, is slow, doesn't hit for extra bases, and is largely boring outside of the pitching. The expiring contracts could bring potential down the road and the loss is negligible. I'm not opposed to trading EmRod. Ryan, Ober, and Lopez are more likely to be traded than Festa due to years of control. I doubt the Twins trade a starter other than Paddack. It is best to make changes in the offseason, but I'm ready for some change now.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agree with the concept except I think Keaschall plays 1B. There's nowhere else to play him with the guys we have unless either Lewis or Lee goes to the bench. I would put in Keaschall for France and Martin or Julien for Keirsey depending on whether you want a RH hitting corner OF/5th OF, or another LH hitting 1B/2B. I would go with Martin, especially since he is tearing up AAA, but I could see either one as an add over Keirsey. 

Keaschall has played some OF in the minors but you still have a point.  Perhaps they should also consider trading Larnach or Bader as well.  They could put Keaschall / Martin or Clemens in the OF.  I would guess the specific of this type of plan would come down to which of the existing players can bring an enticing offer.

[tony&rodney]

Wallner is capable of mashing but he has been struggling. Does anyone think he could return anything worthwhile .... say a TJ rehabbing Jared Jones?

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The only real disappoints have been C4 and Lewis. If those two guys would have just had average type hitting, we would have likely won 10+ more games in the first half. They need to find their allstar side and display it the whole 2nd half to get us into the playoffs. 

I'd add Wallner as a major disappointment. Agreed that the lack of productivity from these three is a big reason why the offense has not reached projections. 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, that's certainly my assumption on what it is. And I certainly understand the logic behind it. My problem with it is that the upside they're waiting on to reappear is so often league average, and while they're waiting on it to reappear they're getting unplayable results. 

Waiting out Royce Lewis' struggles because you think he's a star and once he's straightened out you're getting a .900 OPS bat? Cool. Give him a long runway. Waiting out a Kody Clemens or Ty France type month long .400-.600 OPS because you think they'll get back to a .675-.700 OPS? Not such a big fan of that. Sure, sometimes Kody Clemens will give you a magical month, turn back into a pumpkin, and then give you another 3 week stretch of random power surge. It's all a risk every time you make a roster cut decision. I'm guessing Dave Dombrowski isn't losing too much sleep over his Clemens decision, though.

Spot on. There has to be some observational judgement baked into the equation. A simple example might Margot pinch hitting. The sample was small so they kept running him out there believing the pinch hits would come which of course they never did. 

[stringer bell]

On the position player side, the Twins have not suffered too much from injury. The biggest loss has been two months of Luke Keaschall, who almost certainly will come down to earth statistically after a very nice start. Underperformance by Wallner, Correa and Lewis (probably injury related) has been the most obvious factor in the subpar offensive performance. I would say that on balance Larnach, Lee, Jeffers and France have performed close to, but below expectations while Bader, Castro and especially Clemens and Buxton have done far better than expected. Having two of the worst hitters in baseball at their level of plate appearances (Vázquez and Keirsey Jr.) gives the coaching staff fewer options.

In a long season, things tend to even out. Many of the guys who have performed below expectations have had stretches where they looked far better. I don't see much hope in St. Paul. Julien's overall numbers are about league average. McCusker has been Gallo-like at AAA since his demotion, Eeles and Martin might be better utility players than Keirsey, but I don't think they would move the needle much overall.

With the injured pitchers on the mend--it looks like Zebby and Ober could make a start or two this month--and a so-far healthy bullpen, I think there's a path for the Twins to make the playoffs and having Ryan and Pablo dealing they could have a chance to make some noise. It would require good health and for most of the underperformers to regress to the mean.

I don't know if the Twins should sell. The expiring contract guys are valuable to them but wouldn't bring back much and trading someone like Jax, Ryan or Durán would bring back plenty, but would put a hole in what is a team strength. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Waiting out a Kody Clemens or Ty France type month long .400-.600 OPS because you think they'll get back to a .675-.700 OPS?

This is everything in a one sentence. 

Playing Ty France every day like he's Freddie Freeman or Pete Alonso is a neon sign. 

[Road trip]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Wallner is capable of mashing but he has been struggling. Does anyone think he could return anything worthwhile .... say a TJ rehabbing Jared Jones?

Sure, Wallner would bring something.  But if you trade him now you are selling low.  If you have concluded Wallner is not part of the long term plan I think you hold him for now, hope he has a better 2nd half, and then sell high(er) in the off season.

If you want to sell an outfielder now I think I would move either Bader or Larnach.  Bader is likely gone next year anyway, and for a contending team that needs a CF he is an obvious fit for the duration of the season.  Larnach, meanwhile, is having a season that is exactly in his expected range of outcomes.  He won't be worth more in the off season than what he would be worth today.  Larnach likely won't bring back as much as Wallner though, as after 1500 plate appearances everyone kind of knows what he is, so you can't sell any blue sky...

[Danchat]

58 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'd add Wallner as a major disappointment. Agreed that the lack of productivity from these three is a big reason why the offense has not reached projections. 

Yup, I think Wallner's OPS is disguising how disappointing he's been - he had a .371 OBP the past two years is now sub 300. Add in his defense and he's barely been above replacement level. I still believe in him, but he's part of the problem with his 2025 squad not scoring runs... 16 RBIs despite having 10 HRs in 201 PAs is brutal.

[ToddlerHarmon]

4 hours ago, mickster said:

I don't think tearing this down makes sense.   The Tigers are the class of the division, but Cleveland is struggling, KC isn't any better then the Twins and Chisox are a long ways off.     The early trade deadline is problematic in that too many teams are still in the hunt,   Castro is most likely gone, but if we trade him we put a big hole in our lineup as he can plug-in to so many positions.    David Festa and Erod are who I would use as trade bait.

If you don't think tearing it down makes sense, why are you trading away Festa and ERod, who have a chance to contribute to winning as early as (checks watch) immediately?

[Sjoski]

41 minutes ago, Danchat said:

16 RBIs despite having 10 HRs in 201 PAs is brutal.

All Wallner's homeruns have been solo shots. Unbelievable really...to have only 6 other RBIs in the other 191 PAs.

If that was a batting average were talking.   .031