Let's Discuss the Elephant in the Room. Royce Lewis and What to do With Him.

[mac098]

To begin, I believe that he is a good player, he just isn't it. He was drafted 1st overall out of HS. He quickly started making some noise at the professional level. Royce Lewis was a highly touted potential 5 tool player. He has shown in recent years that he is more of a 2, maybe a 1 tool player at best. 

 

This year, he has struggled mightily to a .216 average, .302 slugging, and a super low 61 OPS+ (meaning his is 39 points worse than the average batter. Not to mention his non existent WAR (0.0). This year is his worst year to date with the bat. I believe that for the Twins to do well, he needs to start hitting. Yes, he has dealt with his fair share of injuries this year, last year, and almost every year he has played. He is pretty much exclusively moved to 3rd base, which is historically a position that is more bat first than glove, nobody tell Arenado that. And it is only going to be a matter of time before Correa is forced over to 3rd base because of his continuous foot issues and he is getting up there in age. He is running into the same symptoms that have plagued Buxton over the years. The inability to take the field (less than 100 games played in any year) and he is looking poised to do it again. 

 

This will be the first off-season that he is eligible for arbitration. I personally don't believe he is gonna get a huge pay bump due to his consistent injury woes. Now the thing working for him is that he has been clutch in the past with multiple grand slams in big situations, post-season homers against big foes, and the fact that he is such a good face to have around the locker room. BUT, a good locker room presence does not equal wins. 

 

This leaves me with a few things. He is young enough that he can develop into a great offensive weapon, as has been shown in the past. He is also still young enough that the Twins could look at moving him for some more prospects, especially pitching. Our "alleged" pitching pipeline that we have is really struggling with Matthews, Festa, and Adams. Even our veterans are struggling like Ober and Paddock. If we could recoup something in terms of some almost big league ready talent, I would take it in a heartbeat. We have the players to replace him or they're at least getting close to being big league ready. Especially if our season is gonna hit fan like it has been lately. 

At this point, I'm starting to think the needle might be leaning towards draft bust vs. success. 

 

Let me know in the comments if I'm just plain wrong, or maybe I'm starting to hit the nail on the head instead of my thumb. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Lewis having a bad season is a major reason why the Twins hitters have struggled to produce runs. I think selling low is a mistake.

It might be to the point where Royce needs another IL stint and extended rehab assignment. My uneducated guess is his legs are still hurting/injured. Get him right/healthy and we may get the superstar back.

as to the “alleged pitching pipeline”. It’s not so much alleged as it is proven. The Twins pitching staff for 2025 have accumulated 13.9 WAR as of the all star break, second in MLB, 3.7 FIP ranks 5th, 4.07 ERA ranks 19, 9.6 hr/fb ranks 1, 15.7 k/bb ranks 4. They’re down their first, third, and sixth starts, getting into the 8th man in the rotation and still getting a competitive game every 5th day is a huge example that it is working.
 

Yeah, they need another starter, but it’s the hitting that’s the problem.

[Doctor Wu]

Another frustrating season for Lewis, but he HAS shown signs of life the past week or so. Put me in the "ride it out" camp. He's still young and as others have already said, the Twins would be selling low on his current value if they try and trade him, so the best move is to just be patient. The talent is obviously there, and I still think he had the right mindset to succeed. If he can overcome these constant injuries then we could truly have a star on our hands. 

[Muppet]

I'm not necessarily concerned about him. A lot of players fall into sophomore slumps and emerge out the other side. What IS concerning is that this seems to be a trend for the Twins. Prospects tear up the minor leagues or have flashes of brilliance for a while, then become unplayable. On any other team we might expect him to figure it out and start destroying MLB pitching again. But for the Twins it seems we can add him to the pile that includes Wallner, Miranda, Julien, Larnach, and probably Brooks Lee (who is OK, but only really in comparison to those with whom he shares the diamond. Maybe it's the curse of Miguel Sano. 

Something is broken somewhere. Bringing back an old hitting coach didn't seem to help. Something stinks and I don't know enough about player development, the minor leagues, or insider baseball to identify the smell. 

[Chembry]

Put me also in the ride it out camp.  Royce is the type of talent that can carry a team.  Yes, he is having a bad year, but I still don't believe he is fully healthy either.  In the past few games you can see him grabbing at that hamstring and stretching it out at the plate.  He does this weird front side flying open then clutching at his left hamstring.

The bigger problem is Wallner.  He has a huge upside, but can't seem to put it together.  Seems to have taken a few steps back at both the plate and in the field.  Personally, I think we need to send him down or trade him.  Not sure we would get a ton in return, but we do have log jam of corner OF (still have ERod, Jenkins, and McCusker).  I know ERod left the game Saturday with another injury, but may be time to see what McCusker can do at the MLB level.  

Personally I think our best lineup is Bader (LF), Buxton (CF), Castro (RF), Royce (3B), C4 (SS), Lee (2B), France or Clemmons (1B), Jeffers (C), and Larnach (DH). 

[twinfan]

I don't know what has caused Lewis' decline since last July but suspect that injuries have much to do with it. We may have to wait until next season to see much of an improvement back to the guy who broke into the majors.

[Parfigliano]

Lewis has been bad at the plate for almost 1 and 1/2 years.  It really looks like it's what he is.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Lewis has been bad at the plate for almost 1 and 1/2 years.  It really looks like it's what he is.

? On this date 1 year ago Royce Lewis had a 1.039 OPS. Good for a 185 wRC+. He has absolutely not been bad at the plate for almost 1 and a 1/2 years. 8/20 last year was when it all fell apart for him. So, he's coming up on a year.

[Mike Sixel]

I think he needs a long rest to get more healthy. But nothing changes for this team into he and CC hit, as they are stuck with both. I have no idea how to fix him. 

[mac098]

4 hours ago, Chembry said:

Put me also in the ride it out camp.  Royce is the type of talent that can carry a team.  Yes, he is having a bad year, but I still don't believe he is fully healthy either.  In the past few games you can see him grabbing at that hamstring and stretching it out at the plate.  He does this weird front side flying open then clutching at his left hamstring.

The bigger problem is Wallner.  He has a huge upside, but can't seem to put it together.  Seems to have taken a few steps back at both the plate and in the field.  Personally, I think we need to send him down or trade him.  Not sure we would get a ton in return, but we do have log jam of corner OF (still have ERod, Jenkins, and McCusker).  I know ERod left the game Saturday with another injury, but may be time to see what McCusker can do at the MLB level.  

Personally I think our best lineup is Bader (LF), Buxton (CF), Castro (RF), Royce (3B), C4 (SS), Lee (2B), France or Clemmons (1B), Jeffers (C), and Larnach (DH). 

I agree also that Wallner needs something. Maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs. We have Emmanuel ready, unless injured again. Jenkins I think is at least another 2 months from ready. I think if the team is outta thr playoff run come September, we DFA Kearsey and purchase Jenkins contract and let him get his cup of coffee to end the year. 

 

For Royce, you can see he is scared at the plate. He's afraid of swinging hard because he doesn't wanna re-injure, or injure worse, his hamstring/quad. The dude is starting to become a glass cannon like Buxton was. Maybe he needs a different off-season routine to help out.

[jctwins]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Lewis has been bad at the plate for almost 1 and 1/2 years.  It really looks like it's what he is.

Until he becomes Gomez that gets coached by a different organization to change his approach at the plate and has an MVP year.

[Linus]

If he’s not fully healthy then it’s tough to make a judgment. If he is healthy and the league has adjusted to him Thats a more concerning issue. Another aspect of his play that is concerning is his defense. He looks unconfident to me; Lee looks much better to me at the hot corner yet the Twins continue to cater to Royce. I hope he snaps out of it. However at some point the Twins can’t wait around for him. To me his logical positions going forward are second base, first base and left field and I’m not sure about second base. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

If he’s not fully healthy then it’s tough to make a judgment. If he is healthy and the league has adjusted to him Thats a more concerning issue. Another aspect of his play that is concerning is his defense. He looks unconfident to me; Lee looks much better to me at the hot corner yet the Twins continue to cater to Royce. I hope he snaps out of it. However at some point the Twins can’t wait around for him. To me his logical positions going forward are second base, first base and left field and I’m not sure about second base. 

Second Base, hmm, take him from a spot where he is simply not good to some where, where, he can be really bad, briliant.

Best thing , send him to AAA, or send him some where else. So many are waiting for Bader and France to be as bad as they hope, well, Lewis is as bad as they hoped the other two would be.

He may turn it around and be an average ball player, but wishful thinking is not the answer.

 

[Vanimal46]

I don’t think he’s been healthy at all this year, and probably last season too. Gotta ride it out. He’s not making a ton of money anyway so what’s the risk of waiting until he’s actually healthy?

[Vanimal46]

Royce is the type of guy who could have his leg cut off and be positive about it saying I’m ready to go tomorrow. The training staff needs to protect him from himself 

[T.O.]

38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Royce is the type of guy who could have his leg cut off and be positive about it saying I’m ready to go tomorrow. The training staff needs to protect him from himself 

Injuries may be an issue but I question whether he has the temperament or maturity to play MLB. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, Chembry said:

Put me also in the ride it out camp.  Royce is the type of talent that can carry a team.  Yes, he is having a bad year, but I still don't believe he is fully healthy either.  In the past few games you can see him grabbing at that hamstring and stretching it out at the plate.  He does this weird front side flying open then clutching at his left hamstring.

The bigger problem is Wallner.  He has a huge upside, but can't seem to put it together.  Seems to have taken a few steps back at both the plate and in the field.  Personally, I think we need to send him down or trade him.  Not sure we would get a ton in return, but we do have log jam of corner OF (still have ERod, Jenkins, and McCusker).  I know ERod left the game Saturday with another injury, but may be time to see what McCusker can do at the MLB level.  

Personally I think our best lineup is Bader (LF), Buxton (CF), Castro (RF), Royce (3B), C4 (SS), Lee (2B), France or Clemmons (1B), Jeffers (C), and Larnach (DH). 

Wallner has underperformed expectations this year, but was the 5th best hitting RF league-wide the last two seasons and is 27 and in his first year arbitration. Trading him would take a truckload of prospects. Super-duper valuable!

also, Clemens has been a MUCH better hitter than France (as has Wallner).

Buxton CF

Clemens 1b

Castro 2b

Bader LF

Jeffers C

Wallner RF

Larnach DH

Correa SS

Lee 3B

 

[mac098]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think he’s been healthy at all this year, and probably last season too. Gotta ride it out. He’s not making a ton of money anyway so what’s the risk of waiting until he’s actually healthy?

Oh, I don't doubt that. My issue is that he is 1). Not letting the staff know he's not 100% or 2). The staff is just saying you gotta play thru it or 3). He's not mentally strong enough to overcome these injuries and he's getting in his own head. 

 

I personally believe its #3. He hasn't been able to reset mentally since the quad/hamstring/ACL injuries. Right now I think he's his own worst enemy. Especially at the plate.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Second Base, hmm, take him from a spot where he is simply not good to some where, where, he can be really bad, briliant.

Best thing , send him to AAA, or send him some where else. So many are waiting for Bader and France to be as bad as they hope, well, Lewis is as bad as they hoped the other two would be.

He may turn it around and be an average ball player, but wishful thinking is not the answer.

 

Troll on. 

[mrtwinsfan]

Twins refuse to give up on 1st round draft picks for quite awhile- - Larnach-Wallner as recent picks . and they were drafted late tweens,  they wont be giving up on the # 1 pick anytime soon , so to me its a  wasted effort even thinking it , sorry  but look back -

[RpR]

45 minutes ago, Linus said:

Troll on. 

Don't like it, don't read it.

Have a nice day.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think he’s been healthy at all this year, and probably last season too. Gotta ride it out. He’s not making a ton of money anyway so what’s the risk of waiting until he’s actually healthy?

The risk is he's awful and they lose games. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 minutes ago, mac098 said:

Oh, I don't doubt that. My issue is that he is 1). Not letting the staff know he's not 100% or 2). The staff is just saying you gotta play thru it or 3). He's not mentally strong enough to overcome these injuries and he's getting in his own head. 

 

I personally believe it’s #3. He hasn't been able to reset mentally since the quad/hamstring/ACL injuries. Right now I think he's his own worst enemy. Especially at the plate.

Compensating for injuries can cause bad mechanics. It can take a while after injury recovery to correct them.

[knothole61]

A stint in St. Paul might be a good ideas for Lewis, and if it's going to happen do it right now...act decisively.

Beyond those things that are more easily measured, I believe that Lewis, the brash, young, intrepid Lewis who once said "I don't do slumps" (or some such thing) is suffering from a crisis of confidence and regaining that, somehow, is probably the key to his recovery. He has the tools but he needs to believe again...yes, he needs that among other things!

[lecroy24fan]

Although I think it will be Kiersey to go down when Keaschall returns, I can see Lewis going instead if he isn't hitting well. Although I don't think Lewis is that bad right now.

[ziggy]

There is no doubt that he has a hitch in his giddy up. I was at Saturdays game and after running to first base on a foul ball he slowly walked back to home plate. Very slowly.  The umpire immediatly had a conversation with him and the next hitter had a conversation with the umpire also. His leg still is hurt.

Until the leg is 100% he will continue to hit 320 foot fly balls instead of line drive doubles and homers. His glove needs to work better and I have no idea if he is willing to put in the time and effort to improve to the poiint of being a plus fielder. Average would be nice at this point.

I vote keep him but give him some days off or IL him and lets see Martin for the rest of this year.  He has no value in a trade. 

[Chembry]

14 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Wallner has underperformed expectations this year, but was the 5th best hitting RF league-wide the last two seasons and is 27 and in his first year arbitration. Trading him would take a truckload of prospects. Super-duper valuable!

also, Clemens has been a MUCH better hitter than France (as has Wallner).

Buxton CF

Clemens 1b

Castro 2b

Bader LF

Jeffers C

Wallner RF

Larnach DH

Correa SS

Lee 3B

 

I agree on Wallner.  I really like what he brings to the table in terms of offensive capabilities.  He was in the top echelon of RF's last two years.  I was throwing the trade out as an idea because of his tremendous upside and our log jam of corner OF's.  

I also agree that Clemons has been a more valuable hitter than France this year.  However, that doesn't account for defense.  Ty is much better defensively.  That is why I had them splitting time at 1st.  

  

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

Although I think it will be Kiersey to go down when Keaschall returns, I can see Lewis going instead if he isn't hitting well. Although I don't think Lewis is that bad right now.

He isn't bad.  He stinks.

[stringer bell]

Okay, I'm not that big into advanced metrics, but I like to check Statcast and Fangraphs on occasion just to see what the metrics oriented sites see in certain players. 

2025 Royce Lewis looks like an average player according to Statcast, maybe a little better than that, and he's a decent defender. Most of Royce's graphs are middling, with as much blue as there is red. I've long thought that Royce's throwing inconsistency made him a subpar third baseman, but he hasn't displayed that this year.

Does that mean Lewis will turn around and look like the player he was in 2023 and early 2024? I doubt it, but I'm not ready to give up on him as either a hitter or fielder. I have thought Lee is the best fit of current players at third base, but his performance this year hasn't moved him into a core player tier.

 

[Julian Bernick]

I can't give up on Royce yet.  And also, no to selling low on him.  I'm a little bit optimistic since over the last 2 weeks he seems to be making more contact and that's how guys emerge from slumps often enough.  He's always been streaky.  But if he's hurt, they need to IL him or if he doesn't put it together, AAA stint is a fine idea so he can try to fix up his mechanics.

More concerned that Wallner is an analytics superstar who has great numbers and obvious mathy upside but never hits a HR with guys on base or even gets that clutch single or double.  He looks like the latter version of Joey Gallo right now (without positional versatility).

As a few ppl have mentioned, it does feel like the organization is doing something wrong.  The list of big time power hitters we have "developed" - Sano, Wallner, Royce, Miranda, Julien, Kiriloff, Larnach (who's been at least something of a bright spot.)  Is it drafting, coaching or both?