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Julian Bernick

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Everything posted by Julian Bernick

  1. Julian Bernick
    I think this is educated guesswork, but we'll be down 2-3 of these guys from injuries and ONLY 2-3 guys if we're lucky. (I mean starters in general, not the above dudes in particular.)
  2. Julian Bernick
    It seems harsh to block him from Asia-ball, but if he gets a ring, I don't think he'll complain. I didn't hear Ty France complain much about reduced playing time and only a few at bats... in one of the greatest WS ever. I can only think that the Twinks didn't think he was a good defensive SS... and that I guess age-wise, he was going to immediately start to decline there? (But Arcia is same age/slightly older, right?)
  3. Julian Bernick
    He might have got passed something by his old roommate Jorge. He'd be a reasonable half-price signing for the Twinks-- no playoffs to worry about anyway + we can never have enough leftie corner OF who can't hit.
  4. Julian Bernick
    No idea why the Twins don't trade Buxton and Ryan while they're close to max value. Lopez was injured a lot, but is still a good deal if he does Pablo stuff for a mostly healthy 2026. Would having 2-3 of those players get people to come to more games ? Maybe if the Twins are .500 instead of .400... but $20-$30 million worth? The Twins are not going to compete in 2026 without acquiring some proven talent and spending a lot more. Then there's a lockout coming and god knows how many games we get in 2027 or what the financial landscape is like (salary caps, floors, broadcast sharing, etc.) As likely as not, Pohlads are going to fire Falvey & co. after that MLB-wide reset... why else would you run the same guys + Shelty (Rocco II) out there this year? So you have 1 guaranteed lost year (2026) + 1 very iffy year (2027) and after that Buxton will be declining (and probably injured) and Pablo/Joe at the end of their contract/control... so why wouldn't you try to cash in those chips for something to grow for 2028 & beyond? No matter what the financial landscape is post-lockout, good young cheap controllable talent is what everyone will want.
  5. Julian Bernick
    I mean I'd love it. I'd take most anything over trying to decide if it's worse if they bring in Hatch, Cabrera or Kriske in the 5th.
  6. Julian Bernick
    I guess we can at least be "glass half full" about Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Roden, Kendry Rojas, Gonzalez, Outman and the rest... they traded for a lot of guys and if 3-4 of them are big leaguers, that could improve things. I mean, deep down, it was clear that they were going nowhere so changing it around was low-risk and has at least a little upside.
  7. Julian Bernick
    For sure-- I would guess they will live or die together in 2026 and suffer the same fate together after the lockout. Hey, you never know. I am a pessimist, but I've been wrong before... maybe they can overachieve and turn stuff around. I mean, there's been a lot of failure, they're due for some good luck.
  8. Julian Bernick
    I agree with the above (and the others who pretty much said it). This is just a quiet boring pick to get them through the lockout. I wouldn't be surprised if the owners move on from Falvey at that time, and probably Shelton too. But you wouldn't bring in a whole new FO just to manage the last year of a team under financial rules that are about to be upended. So, I think we can assume - next year is already a lost year. Low payroll, lame duck FO, lame duck manager. And probably clean slate organizational leadership when the new financial landscape is clearer. And in the meantime, Shelton & Falvey can bet on themselves and do everything to make the 2026 Twins outperform the minimal expectations. Anything's possible. At least in theory.
  9. Julian Bernick
    It feels like the FO thought the 2024 late season collapse was a fluke and that they were right to run out a similar lineup in 2025. If you squint, you can kind of see it-- if Correa, Buxton and Lewis are healthy, Lopez, Bailey and Ryan + a deep reserve corps + above average bullpen should regress positively toward a winning record and compete toward winning a weak division. I think we can now say, 2024 wasn't a fluke. Even with Buxton healthy and Lewis somewhat healthy, the pitching sputtered, the vaunted pitching depth turned out to be at least half quicksand and the bullpen was not good enough to make up for it. The real collapse in 2025 was mid-June to July 31. After the trades, we're in rebuild mode and those AAA and AAAA guys got some advanced talent exhibition games, which is good to assess some new acquisitions, guys on the cusp and so on. There were some hopeful signs amongst starters and hitting, but the patchwork Frankenstein's monster of a bullpen dragged everything down. I would be curious also to see how their Aug + Sept games in 2025 would have looked if they had a league average bullpen. I bet they would have gone close to .500 in that span.
  10. Julian Bernick
    "Admit it, though: you'd forgotten Jonah Bride ever existed." - Though I have watched 80% of the games this year (at least), I could only name 7/10 of the starters. OK, I did come up with France, but I couldn't convince myself that had actually happened, so not sure if that counts as #8 or not. I am now so used to Lee at SS, that I forgot Lee at 2B (!) And yes-- I forgot Jonah Bride ever existed (which is odd, considering how much he pitched.) I get that there are always guys who are going to move around and I value guys like Castro who can really pull this off. But does anyone crunch the #s on how much better defense is if guys actually stick at one position and how many runs it's worth (or not?) I don't think TK would have bought into moving already poor defenders between positions constantly... because defense wins ballgames and bolsters your pitching, which wins ballgames... and also probably increases offense since the hitters know how to do their jobs on the field and reduce their stress there... so they can lock in at the plate (?) Also, GET OFF MY LAWN
  11. Julian Bernick
    Mostly makes sense, but I think Gasper will be out there on the fringe, maybe in AAA? Even if you have Vascqy or Hedges et al, you will want a backup catcher who might have some hitting upside. I guess it depends on how his catching metrics look for the rest of 2025. Since they don't seem to be likely to sign a real 1B, Larnach seems to be a good candidate if they can't trade him. Wallner-- you'd hate to lose that arm in RF. Otherwise, maybe Keaschall?
  12. Julian Bernick
    Conspiracy theory: It seems transparently set up to drive down ticket sales and radio-tv audience and flatline the team's performance.... all in order to.... set up a situation in which they can have an excuse to move the team AND chase a NEW taxpayer funded stadium (built by somewhere else's suckers) Returning to reality: The July 31 tear-down was the right thing to do because this front office regime has completely failed and the core they have built has failed. The owners don't really matter. Many examples show us that a small market team can kick ass. So the real question is, are they going to take steps to actually fix the front office and the failed strategy of building and running this team? If they clear out the Front Office, I can have some hope they'll do better. Otherwise, it's the same trying to turn every player into Joey Gallo for the next how many years? 5? 10?
  13. Julian Bernick
    I agree but ONLY because of the ownership question. I don't think you want to trade away a bunch of core guys and + 2-3 year solid bullpen guys etc. before the new owners and (presumably) their new front office evaluate that. IF the ownership question is resolved before September, I'd agree - sell your expiring guys now and do the tear-down over the winter (but only IF new owners by then.) Thinking back to the 90s/OO's, there was some real pain and suffering and revolving door stuff before things settled on a nucleus of Hunter/Cuddyer/Mauer/Kubel/Morneau etc. We're probably at the beginning of that journey, not the middle.
  14. Julian Bernick
    I mostly agree with you but where we part ways is whether to sell him High and be mediocre (No!) or sell him high and just get on with rebuilding, since who cares if you're mediocre or lousy for the next 2-3 years. Sell Duran, Jax, Castro and Bader high while you're at it and take whatever you can get for Francey.
  15. Julian Bernick
    I guess I work from the assumption that we are carrying Correa through 2028. We will not get any pitcher via free-agency or trades who will rival Joe Ryan before the end of 2028. So how would trading Ryan put us in position for a serious (non-squeaker) playoff push before then? My base assumption is that playoff series are won through really strong pitching. IMO, the real way to make the team better in the short term is to trade Correa, eat a lot of the $$ but get prospects... someone gets a solid defensive veteran SS with WS experience at relatively cheap cost and we hopefully get some worthy near-ready prospects since we'll eat most of the ****** contract.
  16. Julian Bernick
    Maybe I need to be more precise. My point is, the Twins aren't going to go anywhere outside of 2-5 games +.500 if they don't have enough good pitching. They won't win enough games to get a good seed and they won't compete if they do squeak into the playoffs. Is it really so binary as -- any other outcome than a deep playoff run sucks? Well, yes, IMO, but I'm OK with people disagreeing on that point. But if you get rid of 1 of your 2 solid pitchers, you're saying we're gonna hover at average, a little better, or maybe much worse and that's OK. It's not OK with me. It might be perfectly OK for ownership and the front office. I'd rather go for broke and do a big rebuild than sit at 3 games +/- .500 every year and squeak into the playoffs and lose in the first round every 3-5 years.
  17. Julian Bernick
    I can't give up on Royce yet. And also, no to selling low on him. I'm a little bit optimistic since over the last 2 weeks he seems to be making more contact and that's how guys emerge from slumps often enough. He's always been streaky. But if he's hurt, they need to IL him or if he doesn't put it together, AAA stint is a fine idea so he can try to fix up his mechanics. More concerned that Wallner is an analytics superstar who has great numbers and obvious mathy upside but never hits a HR with guys on base or even gets that clutch single or double. He looks like the latter version of Joey Gallo right now (without positional versatility). As a few ppl have mentioned, it does feel like the organization is doing something wrong. The list of big time power hitters we have "developed" - Sano, Wallner, Royce, Miranda, Julien, Kiriloff, Larnach (who's been at least something of a bright spot.) Is it drafting, coaching or both?
  18. Julian Bernick
    Well as the GMs always say, "I'll listen to any deal, there's always something that could make sense." So anything's possible-- in theory. But let's assume no one is trading us a Ryan-caliber pitcher for Ryan (right?) if you were looking to get better in the short term, would you want to trade away one of the #1-#2 pitchers on the team ? Why are you getting better in the short term? To go to the playoffs. How are you going to win playoff series without 2 good pitchers? (Counting Lopez as the other playoff-caliber pitcher.) I mean, I'd love to get Gunnar Henderson or someone, but are we 1-2 young position guys away from winning some playoff series? I would say, not without some legit #1 and #2 pitchers we're not.
  19. Julian Bernick
    It only makes sense to trade Ryan if you are tearing everything down. There's no way you want to trade Joe Ryan if you are trying to get better for the next 1-2 seasons. But if there was a way to sell on Correa and really strip EVERYthing down to the studs (and start with a blank slate for new owners), he could go like everything else into a Houston 2013-style total rebuild.
  20. Julian Bernick
    Quick question: Festa was charged with 2 earned runs instead of 3. One unearned run was the passed ball by Jeffers, right? That I get. What was the other unearned run? I think everyone else who reached was a HBP, walk, hit or fielder's choice. Does FC get counted as an unearned run sometimes? The one last night was pretty basic take-the-lead-runner kind of thing if I recall right.
  21. Julian Bernick
    Anyone can be traded if the value is there, right? Beyond that, I'm in agreement with the 75/25 point above. If everything is all platoon now per analytics, we should be able to get a RH guy from the farm to bring up to play LF without trading one of our few remaining promising hitters. He won't be Tommy Pham, but he wont' cost Pham $$ and he won't slap guys over Fantasy Football either.
  22. Julian Bernick
    Is Astudillo available? That's probably in the range of their big free agent signing before Opening Day.
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