Reds 4, Twins 2 (6 Inn.): Sixth Straight Loss Has Rain-Soaked Twins Circling the Drain

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Early on, it looked like this could be another in the recent string of starts by Bailey Ober that have steadily raised the concern level around him from non-existent to very high. Byron Buxton staked his starter to a 1-0 lead with a leadoff home run, trying to burn off the humidity that lingered behind a two-hour rain delay with a rocket over the high wall in left-center field. We'll discuss Buxton a bit more later, because his continued brilliance is the best thing going on in Twins Territory right now. Right away, though, Ober gave up that lead—and then some.

All season, the narrative has been there. Ober's velocity has been down since spring training, which was more notable even then than it would be for many pitchers, for multiple reasons. Firstly, of course, Ober had less margin for error, as it were; he's never been a hard thrower. Secondly, though, Ober is usually at his strongest (and his velocity is usually highest) early in the season. That he came into spring struggling to hit his usual numbers was worrisome, and indeed, he's been fighting to stay above 90 miles per hour with his heater almost all season.

For several starts, he pitched around that problem, but even when his ERA didn't show the strain of his diminished speed, his strikeout rate did. In 11 starts across the months of April and May, Ober posted a 2.43 ERA, and the Twins won eight of those games. However, he only punched out 18.8% of opposing batters even during that span. After Wednesday night, he has three starts in June, and his ERA has skyrocketed to 8.31. Not missing bats has caught up to him, and we can point to an obvious reason for that inability to induce whiffs: the lost velocity.

In the first inning against the Reds, he made the mistake of trying to establish his heater, and work off of it. All year, he's been (wisely) ratcheting down the usage of his fastball. With a lefty-heavy top of the lineup for the Reds, however, he tried to go after them a bit with it, so that he'd be able to go to his changeup more against the same hitters the second and third times he saw them. Try though he might, he's often been unable to find a satisfactory feel for his breaking stuff this year, which has led to slight reductions in his use of those offerings. That makes it more important that he find spots to make use of the heater to lefties, so they can't sit on his changeup.

TJ Friedl singled to lead off the bottom of the first, though, and after Ober managed to get both Gavin Lux and Elly De La Cruz out, former Twins farmhand Spencer Steer stepped to the plate. Ober went after him, too, with fastballs. Big mistake. Steer saw three pitches, all of them fastballs. Ober was sitting 91-92 at that early stage of the game, but Steer rode the third pitch (a 1-1 test of the outer edge) out of the park to the opposite field, flipping the scoreboard. It was 2-1 Reds, and the Twins would never catch them.

That mistake and its grave consequences illustrate the lack of a margin for error for Ober right now, but to his credit, he recovered fairly well. As the game wore on, he tweaked his approach, and perhaps his mechanics. Ober's fastball still lost velocity as the game went along, but he also began changing the way he attacked hitters. Here's a chart showing his pitch mix based on the count, for this full season.

Even as he's reduced his overall fastball usage, I can make a strong case that he's leaned too much on the heater early in counts this year. On occasion, when the scouting report says that a hitter is a bit passive in a given count, he should try to sneak one by hitters, but by and large, it's time for the towering hurler to start pitching backward. It's encouraging, then, that he did just that on Wednesday night, especially after the first inning.

The Reds are a very patient team, so Ober still picked spots to throw them fastballs. In fact, he tied a career high with 12 called strikes on the heater. (The other time he did so was way back in early August 2023.) As the game progressed, though, he started far more hitters with soft stuff, and used the fastball either to buy back strikes or to catch hitters looking for an offspeed pitch in a deep count. Cincinnati did put up runs in the second and third, but Ober largely regained control of the game after that Steer homer. He'd record all 17 Twins outs for the evening, before the second round of rain came and washed out the contest. His final line (5 2/3 innings, 9 hits, 4 runs, 5 strikeouts, 0 walks) is unimpressive, but he took a small step toward something viable.

It appeared that he also made a slight mechanical change during the game, and there's evidence of that in the data, too. It's hard to see what he did differently from the default center-field cameras on the TV broadcasts, but Ober appeared to be more balanced as he finished his deliveries later in the game, and for the first time since roughly last July, his extension (the distance, in feet, from the front edge of the rubber to his actual release point, capturing the amount by which he shortens the distance from himself to the plate) plummeted.

Interestingly, extension has not always mapped well to overall effectiveness or health for Ober, whose height and unique amount of extension have been an advantage and one way to mitigate the problem of having below-average velocity for most of his career. Whether it had to do with mound conditions, was an experiment in managing the left hip issue that has plagued him this year, or just allowed him to feel his landing foot better and stay more stable throughout his delivery, Ober seemed not to be launching himself quite as far down the mound later in his appearance, and it worked. His command of (especially) his breaking stuff improved, and so did the results.

Unfortunately, for one game, that was all too little, too late. The Twins never meaningfully answered the Reds' initial volley. A pair of singles and an RBI groundout pushed across a second run against Nick Lodolo in the fourth, but the Cincinnati lefty neutralized the visitors fairly easily around that. This offense just isn't generating the kind of dangerous contact that became their trademark for most of Rocco Baldelli's tenure. It's beginning to look like a major restructuring of the offense will be required to change their fortunes, and that probably has to wait until the offseason. For now, they need to keep finding ways to create runs one or two at a time, but they should also continue working with their young core to produce the power that was expected of them just a few years ago.

Buxton is the blessed exception to all of that. He hit that first-pitch home run, but he also had hard-hit balls in each of his other two plate appearances. Both were outs, but they were very well-struck air balls to the outfield. It seems like every time he steps into the box, he's hitting the ball hard.

That 100-mph flyout to right field, by the way, was Buxton's 13th hard-hit ball to the opposite field this season. That's the most such batted balls he's ever had in a season, tying 2023 and 2024. It took him over 100 fewer plate appearances to get there this year than in either of the last two. He's become a pole-to-pole power threat and a better situational hitter than ever, and he's drawing walks. The Twins need several other players to follow his lead, and so far, they haven't. Nonetheless, Wednesday was a demonstration of his immense value.

What's Next
The good news is that the Twins didn't need their bullpen at all Wednesday night. After David Festa's start Tuesday night threatened to burn it out at the front end of a stretch in which they play 13 games without a day off, the rain gave them a nice reprieve. Chris Paddack will try to compound that relief by working deep and dominating the light-hitting Reds, while Cincinnati will trot out veteran right-hander Nick Martinez. The game starts early, at 11:40 AM Central, as the Twins wrap a miserable road trip and try to avoid having it be a winless one.

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[Mark G]

After Bailey's last start I think a lot of us were anticipating him being put on the IL for a little while.  Last night showed hope, but 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings is still worrisome.  I assume he is not injured, or he wouldn't have gone out there last night, so I am looking forward to his next start to see if this is really a step in the right direction.  

As for the offense.........do they even have a direction?  🫤

[Whitey333]

Just another listless performance by Twins.  Not surprised.  Maybe, just maybe they will win Thursday but I doubt it.

[PatG]

I am really wondering why they don't give McCusker an actual look.

The way Walner has been playing the field, could McC do worse??

[Patzky]

It's difficult to envision that the Twins were even in a position to win half the games on this road trip, but they were. I smell no hope at all for a playoff appearance 

[Patzky]

24 minutes ago, PatG said:

 

The way Walner has been playing the field, could McC do worse??

He did, but you are right.

[mikelink45]

The escalator is still going down - below 500.  73 games in.  Since they finished so bad last year this is a worrisome place to be.  10.5 games behind Detroit, Cleveland has passed us and KC is 1/2 game behind us.  Who are we?  Buxton, Castro and Lee are the only ones getting hits, but they are 1,5, 7 in the order so not able to support one another.  

And the rain saved the day as the article states because we did not use our BP.  That is the good news of the day I guess.

[Peter]

Not if but when twins snap out of ugly slump!!! Just need to get everyone at full health!!! I’m not giving up on season and neither should all of you!!! We must must must support our twins win or lose no matter what!!! Especially now!!!

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, if the game had gone the full 9, Twins could have won. Hope Twins win today.

[Old Crow]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Just another listless performance by Twins.  Not surprised.  Maybe, just maybe they will win Thursday but I doubt it.

Does Correa have a no trade clause.  Just curious.

[AceWrigley]

9 hours ago, Peter said:

Not if but when twins snap out of ugly slump!!! Just need to get everyone at full health!!! I’m not giving up on season and neither should all of you!!! We must must must support our twins win or lose no matter what!!! Especially now!!!

It's hard to get too excited about a franchise whose ownership shows no interest in investing in its product and at the same time can't seem to sell it. Meanwhile both the White Sox and Rays have negotiated a new deal or letter of intent to purchase their respective teams.

They play boring uninspiring Rocco ball and that doesn't look like it will change any time soon. We have no players in the minors knocking on MLB's door and in-season trades doesn't seem to be GM Falvey's strong suit. I like Buxton, Pablo, Ryan, Duran and Castro. Bader and France have been good additions. Festa and Matthews have potential to help and Varland has blossomed as a reliever.

But the offense doesn't put pressure on the opposition often enough and it's gonna take 30 arms to get the pitching staff through the season. I'll watch and root for the team but i'm not clicked in like I usually am.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

After Bailey's last start I think a lot of us were anticipating him being put on the IL for a little while.  Last night showed hope, but 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings is still worrisome.  I assume he is not injured, or he wouldn't have gone out there last night, so I am looking forward to his next start to see if this is really a step in the right direction.  

As for the offense.........do they even have a direction?  🫤

As much as would like the twins to succeed , I just don't have any confidence they will ...

[The Great Hambino]

26 minutes ago, Old Crow said:

Does Correa have a no trade clause.  Just curious.

Unfortunately I don't think it even matters at this point.  What team out there would have the desire to assume his contract straight up, let alone give up value for him?  His contract alone eliminates all but like 6-8 teams from consideration.   And he isn't performing anywhere close to the level that would help the remaining teams in any meaningful way.  Short of a rich contender ending up with a long-term emergency (as in, the cupboard looks bare for multiple years) at shortstop (or maybe 3B if they're really desperate), I just don't see any sort of trade market for him unless he figures out how to hit again for a sustained amount of time.

The other option would be for the Twins to eat an enormous chunk of his remaining contract, which kinda defeats the purpose of the trade.  I don't think he's going anywhere any time soon

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

After Bailey's last start I think a lot of us were anticipating him being put on the IL for a little while.  Last night showed hope, but 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings is still worrisome.  I assume he is not injured, or he wouldn't have gone out there last night, so I am looking forward to his next start to see if this is really a step in the right direction.  

As for the offense.........do they even have a direction?  🫤

Those first couple of innings...he really doesn't look right. He's never been this hittable, he's struggling to get K's, it's easily his worst season in MLB. Feels like he'd be heading to the IL for 2 weeks rest, some hip rehab, and mechanical tweaks if Pablo and Zebby weren't already hurt. Seeing Spenser Steer (who has been bad this season) look like an all-star against him tonight really sold the idea that he's not right and it's significant. 

Oof. It's a depressing run right now.

Best part of the game was Hawk's take down of the punks who made threats against Ober and talked about how he'd had to face things like that in his career. I thought he was really good in the booth last night: smart and passionate, shared some personal experiences, and did a really good job talking about things like pitch sequencing. Thought it was Hawkins at his best; when he's cooking like that he really adds a lot to a broadcast, and he worked very well with Provus (who even did a bit of Uecker!). But I hate it when the commentary is better than the Twins play...

[Blyleven2011]

Buxton is the closest we have to a homerun hitter , he bats leadoff and isn't used properly to utilize his skills , if he gets on base they don't have him steal a base ( he hasnt been thrown out stealing a base yet this year )  , he can be a run producer if he bats 3rd in the order and others get on base in front of him , the construction of the batting order is mind boggling , your best hitter should be batting 3rd ...

I wish we had a Judge type player to consistently hit homeruns but if we did he would only hit solo homeruns because nobody is getting on base , it's very hard to have any confidence in our offense ...

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Unfortunately I don't think it even matters at this point.  What team out there would have the desire to assume his contract straight up, let alone give up value for him?  His contract alone eliminates all but like 6-8 teams from consideration.   And he isn't performing anywhere close to the level that would help the remaining teams in any meaningful way.  Short of a rich contender ending up with a long-term emergency (as in, the cupboard looks bare for multiple years) at shortstop (or maybe 3B if they're really desperate), I just don't see any sort of trade market for him unless he figures out how to hit again for a sustained amount of time.

The other option would be for the Twins to eat an enormous chunk of his remaining contract, which kinda defeats the purpose of the trade.  I don't think he's going anywhere any time soon

Look at what the Red Sox got in return for Devers. About twice the contract, but 2 years younger and a significantly better player. 

He brought back next to nothing. 

[tony&rodney]

44 minutes ago, Old Crow said:

Does Correa have a no trade clause.  Just curious.

He does, If Carlos waived his contract the Twins would need to pay three-fourths of it just to get someone to take him without a return. Correa is a good shortstop but he is way off his normal production at the plate.

[David Maro]

Ober's velocity was up but location in the middle of the zone was the problem. Giving up 4 runs in two innings on a night that may end early can't happen. It's also well past time to move C4 down in the lineup. It is just really hard watching this team muddle through a game at this point.

[thelanges5]

Positives (may have to squint to see them):

Encouraging Ober start?!?

Lee 17 game hit streak

Buck and Castro continue to hit

13 games in 13 days; BP got a day off

[JD-TWINS]

WALLNER - zero contribution for 3 weeks.

LEWIS - non factor

KEASCHALL - only contributing youth, & out for 4 more weeks 

2 runs - 1 run - few gifted runs - 2 runs over last 4 games…….no runs/no wins

LOPEZ - out 45 more days

I do think the pitching can keep things competitive - maybe naive or too hopeful?

Offense is brutal …… if they can play .500 ball through the All-star break they have a chance. If not, some trades may actually be made late next month?

Most guys, other than prior mentioned Wallner, Lewis…….CC too, are doing what one would expect. Buxton & Castro are as good as they get to date! CC will get to .260 eventually but his lack of pop is a run scoring problem…. Wallner & Lewis …..& eventually Keaschall need to help propel some run scoring!!

[joefish]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

After Bailey's last start I think a lot of us were anticipating him being put on the IL for a little while.  Last night showed hope, but 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings is still worrisome.  I assume he is not injured, or he wouldn't have gone out there last night, so I am looking forward to his next start to see if this is really a step in the right direction.  

As for the offense.........do they even have a direction?  🫤

Offensive Indifference?

[LambchoP]

Wallner Correa and Bader have looked completely lost at the plate. If they keep on losing and are out of it come deadline time, they should sell off expiring contracts and let all the kids play. Audition some of our pitching prospects like Adams, Morris and Lewis along with guys like Mccusker, Eeles and may e E Rodriguez. See what we have in terms of starters for next year and see where we need to sign FA. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

It's hard to get too excited about a franchise whose ownership shows no interest in investing in its product and at the same time can't seem to sell it. Meanwhile both the White Sox and Rays have negotiated a new deal or letter of intent to purchase their respective teams.

They play boring uninspiring Rocco ball and that doesn't look like it will change any time soon. We have no players in the minors knocking on MLB's door and in season trades doesn't seem to be GM Falvey's strong suit. I like Buxton, Pablo, Ryan, Duran and Castro. Bader and France have been good additions. Festa and Matthews have potential to help and Varland has blossomed as a reliever.

But the offense doesn't put pressure on the opposition often enough and it's gonna take 30 arms to get the pitching staff through the season. I'll watch and root for the team but i'm not clicked in like I usually am.

Good post. I would add Lee to the list of liked players but spot on, particularly the lack of anyone at AAA who can help.

Speaking of that, is there anyone who can come in and take over 1b or the DH spot anywhere in the system? I looked at the Saints roster and it looks pretty grim. I don't count the career journey men as options; calling up a 30 year old having a good AAA year isn't going to help. We saw Gaspar already, seems unlikely that he can help. The only ones looking like a prospect is Prato and McCusker and McCusker looked pretty grim in his limited ABs. France is not the answer at 1B; he's hitting the same way he did the last 2 years which caused Seattle to release him. Julien has looked bad lately, same with Miranda. 

I guess the only hope to help this lineup is to hope that Lewis and Keaschall can hit when they come back. Anybody see anything else?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, PatG said:

I am really wondering why they don't give McCusker an actual look.

The way Walner has been playing the field, could McC do worse??

Wallner is an elite hitter. He maybe isn't fielding well, but he's a big time hitter. Top 20 among all MLB players last year in both obp and slg. You want to bench him?

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Wallner Correa and Bader have looked completely lost at the plate. If they keep on losing and are out of it come deadline time, they should sell off expiring contracts and let all the kids play. Audition some of our pitching prospects like Adams, Morris and Lewis along with guys like Mccusker, Eeles and may e E Rodriguez. See what we have in terms of starters for next year and see where we need to sign FA. 

McCusker is older than Wallner..... Seriously, did anyone watch Wallner last year?

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

As much as would like the twins to succeed , I just don't have any confidence they will ...

Agreed 

[wavedog]

Interesting that MLB still allows rain shortened games - seems a little odd to just say we will stop the game right here with 2 outs in the bottom of the 6th.   Why not complete the rest of yesterday's game today?   Difficult to plan when the game will end and doesn't allow to come back against a weaker bullpen.  Trying to think of another sport where the game is called before the full time.  In golf that will happen sometimes due to weather and they will go 3 rounds instead of 4.   BAck to baseball, maybe if that is the last game of the last series that team plays against the team that could be allowed rather than having to travel back for 3 innings but if there is another game like today why not finish the game off?     MLB on the other hand allows using position players as pitchers rather than alternatively banning that but allowing the team trailing by the large margin to just call uncle and end the game.   So in one case shortened games are allowed and in the other they are not.  

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wallner is an elite hitter. He maybe isn't fielding well, but he's a big time hitter. Top 20 among all MLB players last year in both obp and slg. You want to bench him?

Wallner is 0-17 with no walks in the last five games and has 8 total rbi's all season. He can be a really good hitter, great power, but too streaky to be counted on as an everyday run producer. I hope he figures it out, we could use him.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

Wallner is 0-17 with no walks in the last five games and has 8 total rbi's all season. He can be a really good hitter, great power, but too streaky to be counted on as an everyday run producer. I hope he figures it out, we could use him.

Every player is streaky. If you think a guy that is one of the top twenty hitters in baseball over a season isn't playable, I have no idea what you want. 

[AceWrigley]

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Every player is streaky. If you think a guy that is one of the top twenty hitters in baseball over a season isn't playable, I have no idea what you want. 

Against right hand pitching from July through September he's been really good. Outside of that, not so much.