The Plight of the Orioles Should Give Twins Fans a Sense of Perspective

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

A few short weeks ago, fans and media were rightfully wondering whether Rocco Baldelli's job might be in danger as the Twins dug deeper into an early-season hole, following last year's second-half collapse. That notion's been quelled by a 12-game winning streak that has Minnesota back to five games above .500 and firmly in the American League contention mix.

Ironically, the epic run from Baldelli's squad played a direct role in the dismissal of a different manager: Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, against whom half of Minnesota's wins during the streak were recorded. On Saturday Baltimore announced that they've relieved Hyde of managerial duties, replacing him with third base coach Tony Mansolino in the interim.

 

The Orioles are in last place in the AL East with a 15-28 record. The Twins looked like the clearly superior team while going 6-0 against them in an 11-day span this month, outscoring the O's by 23 runs. As Minnesota rose, Baltimore fell, and now their skipper is the one to take the fall, after guiding his team to the playoffs in each of the past two seasons.

It was true with Baldelli and the Twins, and it's true with Hyde and the Orioles: the manager is not the primary issue at play. The desire for a shakeup is understandable, but the Baltimore Orioles are plagued by deeper problems that are in large part self-inflicted by the organization's leadership and its shortcomings.

There is one glaring point of distinction between these two ships passing in the night: Pitching.

The Orioles can’t stop losing for the same reason the Twins can’t stop winning. Baltimore’s team ERA ranks dead last in the American League at 5.31. Minnesota, by contrast, is second at 3.23. When your arms are giving you that kind of advantage — or disadvantage — the manager’s job becomes almost irrelevant.

Twins fans have had plenty of valid gripes over the past couple years, most notably the front office’s decision to scale back payroll after a playoff breakthrough. But they can’t hold a candle to what the Orioles have put their fanbase through. After forcing fans to endure years of non-competitive rebuilding, Baltimore finally emerged with a fun, talented young core ... and then failed to follow through with the investments needed to take the next step.

Most notably, they couldn’t retain Corbin Burnes — one of the few high-end pitchers they had managed to acquire — allowing the four-time All-Star and former Cy Young winner to walk in free agency. Burnes is now excelling in Arizona while the Orioles scramble to field competent starters.

 

But Baltimore’s problems go beyond money. The Twins aren’t dominating opponents because they outspent anyone; they’re dominating because of development. Under Derek Falvey, Minnesota has built a pitching pipeline that consistently turns mid-round picks and overlooked arms into legitimate contributors. They’re identifying talent, nurturing it, and maximizing its value. It’s the difference between a flash-in-the-pan contender and a team with staying power.

Case in point: Danny Coulombe. The Orioles had him in-house, but declined to activate a modest contract option this past offseason. Minnesota scooped him up, and Coulombe has returned to their bullpen as a key force with a zero runs allowed in 19 appearances and an MLB-leading 1.19 FIP, helping anchor one of the league’s most overpowering relief groups. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s bullpen is a mess, and one of their better lefty options is thriving elsewhere, on a team that’s now beaten them six times in a row.

 

Twins fans have every right to be irritated in many regards with the state of their favorite franchise. But we just saw firsthand how much worse it can be. If you can pitch, you’re going to have a chance. Right now, the Twins have arms in abundance, and a front office that’s showing it knows how to keep them coming.

Falvey may not be perfect, but he's doing the main thing he was asked to do when the Twins hire him. Rocco Baldelli is enjoying the benefits. Brandon Hyde, not so much.

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[Aggies7]

Devils advocate…I understand the larger point, but there also needs to be perspective about the twins current hot streak. It’s been 12 games. Not even two weeks worth of games. We had a 12 game run last season too. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves talking about staying power, dominating opponents and maxing out potential, let’s see how this all plays out. 
 

Don’t hate on this comment, I’m enjoying the run. But I enjoyed it last season too. Hoping it turns out differently this time!

[MMMordabito]

The Twins should make sure they don't become the Orioles and just extend Ryan now.

[bean5302]

The Orioles offered top dollar to Burnes. He wanted to play in Scottsdale. Falvey's success with Jorge Lopez should be commended. His cast off of Yennier Cano looks pretty good, too, right? It's not too hard to cherry pick to support a position.

The Twins were 7 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago so to come out here and start bragging about Falvey's ability to develop mid/late round pitching prospects when one single guy in the entire rotation fits that bill seems a little too much for me.

I don't think the Twins would be doing so well if 3 of our best starters were on the IL and another had walked.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If the comparison is Baltimore, it was only two short years ago that Baltimore fleeced the Twins with the Jorge Lopez trade and of Coulombe changing teams at that time too. I guess you knew this and left it out intentionally to draw comments—here you go

By the way, I am enjoying the Twins streak very much. Baldelli gets in trouble by overmanaging and he has not been doing that lately it seems. That is key. 

[Nick Nelson]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Orioles offered top dollar to Burnes. He wanted to play in Scottsdale. Falvey's success with Jorge Lopez should be commended. His cast off of Yennier Cano looks pretty good, too, right? It's not too hard to cherry pick to support a position.

The Twins were 7 games under .500 just a couple weeks ago so to come out here and start bragging about Falvey's ability to develop mid/late round pitching prospects when one single guy in the entire rotation fits that bill seems a little too much for me.

I don't think the Twins would be doing so well if 3 of our best starters were on the IL and another had walked.

The Twins have one of the best pitching staffs in the league. The Orioles have the worst. I'm cherry-picking? Come on. 

[Linus]

If Falvey is so smart why didn’t he keep Coulombe a couple years ago instead of several stiffs that were sent packing quickly?

[Linus]

The biggest takeaway I see in this comparison is beware of the rebuild. You are guaranteed to suck for several years and there is no guarantee it will work. 

[Western SD Fan]

When these baby O's came onto the scene as AL contenders, it seemed as they were a year too early and management (and ownership) wasn't quite ready to push all the chips in. Where I do believe a good manager makes a difference is keeping the team even keeled and managing expectations.  A lot of people questioned how the Tigers would respond this season after last season's surprising playoff run.  The Tigers just have the best record in baseball at the moment and currently winning again this afternoon.  You have to attribute at least some of that to the manager, AJ Hinch.  As for Baldelli, I think he is closer to Hyde as a manager than Hinch.  He can ride the highs like the best of them but doesn't seem to have many answers when the lows come in, similar to earlier this year before the 12-game winning streak.  Pitching and defense does seem to solve a lot of problems though.

[Nick Nelson]

26 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Devils advocate…I understand the larger point, but there also needs to be perspective about the twins current hot streak. It’s been 12 games. Not even two weeks worth of games. We had a 12 game run last season too. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves talking about staying power, dominating opponents and maxing out potential, let’s see how this all plays out. 
 

Don’t hate on this comment, I’m enjoying the run. But I enjoyed it last season too. Hoping it turns out differently this time!

Sure, but elite pitching is what makes a streak like this possible. It's hard to lose very often when you're giving up two runs a game. And now they're about to swap out their lone underperforming starter with their top pitching prospect.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

when one single guy in the entire rotation fits that bill

Ober has been very good for several seasons now so it’s more than fair to call him a success story, and hopefully an All Star at some point. But yeah it’s just been Ober. 

[Aggies7]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

The biggest takeaway I see in this comparison is beware of the rebuild. You are guaranteed to suck for several years and there is no guarantee it will work. 

This is definitely true. 

[Patzky]

An early O-7 hole against the Nats tonight.. Kyle Gibson then Morton in relief. 

 

Totally unrelated but how exciting and unexpected will it be for Julien to face Kenta Maeda in Iowa tonight..

[LastOnePicked]

I'm not quite following the argument. Orioles have won 275 games over the last three years. The Twins have won 247 and played in a much weaker division over that span (but it is heating up now, yes). Both teams have won three playoff games in that same span. We're only a quarter of the way into 2025 - we'll have to see where things end up this year and perhaps the next few years.

The story of this comparison might be that a total rebuild (like the Os) - if done correctly - helps you rebound more quickly after a bad year. Or it might be that it's far better just to steer towards .500 each year (like the Twins) and see where you can get from there. Or, if the Orioles rebound in 2025, the real lesson might be that it's wise to fire an underperforming manager as soon as you sense stalled momentum.

But I wouldn't draw too much of a conclusion from any of this yet.

[Aggies7]

12 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm not quite following the argument. Orioles have won 275 games over the last three years. The Twins have won 247 and played in a much weaker division over that span (but it is heating up now, yes). Both teams have won three playoff games in that same span. We're only a quarter of the way into 2025 - we'll have to see where things end up this year and perhaps the next few years.

The story of this comparison might be that a total rebuild (like the Os) - if done correctly - helps you rebound more quickly after a bad year. Or it might be that it's far better just to steer towards .500 each year (like the Twins) and see where you can get from there. Or, if the Orioles rebound in 2025, the real lesson might be that it's wise to fire an underperforming manager as soon as you sense stalled momentum.

But I wouldn't draw too much of a conclusion from any of this yet.

Essentially the same Twins staff last season was middle of the road in many categories. Top ten in a few. Things look excellent at the moment but it’s….May 17. Reactionary one way or the other is probably wise to be avoided. I know I’ve not followed that advice myself plenty of times.

[stringer bell]

At this point the OP is accurate, but a six-month major league season has lots of twists and turns. What is conventional wisdom in May is not necessarily the same in September.

i do think Falvey has done a good job putting together a major league pitching staff without breaking the bank and it appears there is help available in the minors. Good health on the pitching side has helped. Baltimore hasn’t had good luck this year and it might be a lost season for the Birds. 

[William Malone]

Orioles are just like the White Sox from a few years ago. Chicago made playoffs in 2020 and 2021 after a very long rebuild. Everybody thought that was only the beginning, but it was as good as it got.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

Reactionary one way or the other is probably wise to be avoided. I know I’ve not followed that advice myself plenty of times.

I'm right there with you. 

[Guest]

Great to see that motivational bump the Os got in today’s game against the Nationals. 

[Doctor Gast]

It's crazy that all those years of great draft picks, not one of them was a pitcher. They traded for Burns, but unlike LAD, who traded for Glasnow, they didn't make sure they had him locked up before. They had a lot of trade bait to trade for good SPs, but they love to hug their prospects as long as they can. If their problem were only pitching, all their games would be high-scoring games because they have a powerful lineup that most would envy. Yes, Falvey has finally gotten the pitching pipeline flowing, but it also helps to have Ryan & Lopez dropped into your lap into his rotation as well as Correa in our lineup. These 3 help form the nucleus of our veteran core. IMO, BAL lacks quality veteran leadership. One of the 1st things I heard coming out of social media during the Twins' slump was, Fire sale, we need to get rid of our core because they are our problem. Funny thing was when the Lewis & Castro returned, that was when the core was complete & the Twins started to win, even though they didn't contribute much offensively. IMO, that was because of chemistry & fire that was ignited. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Sure, but elite pitching is what makes a streak like this possible. It's hard to lose very often when you're giving up two runs a game. And now they're about to swap out their lone underperforming starter with their top pitching prospect.

Cherry picking is when you choose a few pieces of data that favor your argument while ignoring the stuff that doesn't. You absolutely cherry picked. Furthermore, it's arrogant to trash talk another franchise when the Twins were in the exact same position as them 2 weeks ago.

[mikelink45]

Sorry for Hyde - no one wins without pitching.  But as much as I am enjoying this streak - it is just a streak and there is a lot of season left.  We had this streak last year too.

[TheLeviathan]

Baseball is a cruel sport.  No other major sport has as much variability year to year.  What looks like is trending up can suddenly crash out.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

Devils advocate…I understand the larger point, but there also needs to be perspective about the twins current hot streak. It’s been 12 games. Not even two weeks worth of games. We had a 12 game run last season too. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves talking about staying power, dominating opponents and maxing out potential, let’s see how this all plays out. 
 

Don’t hate on this comment, I’m enjoying the run. But I enjoyed it last season too. Hoping it turns out differently this time!

I checked the calendar.  It's NOT last season.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

Essentially the same Twins staff last season was middle of the road in many categories. Top ten in a few. Things look excellent at the moment but it’s….May 17. Reactionary one way or the other is probably wise to be avoided. I know I’ve not followed that advice myself plenty of times.

When Ryan went down last year, the Twins had three of the top 12 starters in the AL. 

[Bodie]

15 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

When these baby O's came onto the scene as AL contenders, it seemed as they were a year too early and management (and ownership) wasn't quite ready to push all the chips in. Where I do believe a good manager makes a difference is keeping the team even keeled and managing expectations.  A lot of people questioned how the Tigers would respond this season after last season's surprising playoff run.  The Tigers just have the best record in baseball at the moment and currently winning again this afternoon.  You have to attribute at least some of that to the manager, AJ Hinch.  As for Baldelli, I think he is closer to Hyde as a manager than Hinch.  He can ride the highs like the best of them but doesn't seem to have many answers when the lows come in, similar to earlier this year before the 12-game winning streak.  Pitching and defense does seem to solve a lot of problems though.

(Wish I could quote a part instead of the whole...)

"...but doesn't seem to have any answers when the lows come in..." 

Fixed that for ya'!  

[William Malone]

16 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm not quite following the argument. Orioles have won 275 games over the last three years. The Twins have won 247 and played in a much weaker division over that span (but it is heating up now, yes). Both teams have won three playoff games in that same span. We're only a quarter of the way into 2025 - we'll have to see where things end up this year and perhaps the next few years.

The story of this comparison might be that a total rebuild (like the Os) - if done correctly - helps you rebound more quickly after a bad year. Or it might be that it's far better just to steer towards .500 each year (like the Twins) and see where you can get from there. Or, if the Orioles rebound in 2025, the real lesson might be that it's wise to fire an underperforming manager as soon as you sense stalled momentum.

But I wouldn't draw too much of a conclusion from any of this yet.

But now think of the White Sox. Just a few years ago, they had the best farm system in baseball. Made playoffs in 2020 and 2021. Everyone thought it was only the beginning…but now look at them. That could be the Orioles fate.

[jmlease1]

14 hours ago, William Malone said:

Orioles are just like the White Sox from a few years ago. Chicago made playoffs in 2020 and 2021 after a very long rebuild. Everybody thought that was only the beginning, but it was as good as it got.

This is the scary scenario for the O's. One of the things that torched CWS was they had a class of players arrive and then it kind of stopped. Add in relatively low levels of investment (and what did happen didn't pan out very well) along with some truly baffling managerial choices and CWS is the laughingstock of the AL. The O's could follow suit.

Twins have made some very good decisions on the pitching side of things that have positioned them well: they've been adding pitching talent in volume with a development plan to grow them. They've avoided pouring too many resources into the bullpen. They've identified trade options in other organizations that could be long-term solutions for the team. The O's haven't been doing that, and going all in last year on Burnes and not being able to re-sign him has really hurt them, especially since the playoffs crapped out on them. They brought him in the lead a deep playoff run, and instead got swept out by the Royals.

But right now the O's lineup, which has been their strength, has been scrabbling. Henderson is still a terrific player, but he's not playing like an MVP right now. Instead of having 1-2 guys taking another step forwards and looking like a potential all-star, they've got more players looking like Just Another Guy. It's a tough combo: bad pitching and a lineup that's slipped back. 

The O's probably aren't as bad as they've been so far this season talent-wise, much as the Twins weren't truly as dreadful as their start indicated. It's bad luck to be scrabbling and then run into a team like the Twins who is on fire twice in a short span, but that's how you fall into the hole. 

But they need to be concerned that their position players made have taken a step back at a time where they don't seem to be seem to be producing any pitching from their system. Balto's pitching isn't just bad, it's also pretty old. Povich is the only starter they've got that you could call young, and he's been bad again. Eflin can't be counted on to be healthy, and while Sugano has been quite good...he's already 35 in his rookie season. 

[slick83]

We still have one of the worst managers in baseball in Rocco. But I will give him credit for staying out the way as our winning streak continues. Keep it going Twins!

[LambchoP]

The fact that the Orioles did very little to rebuild their pitching rotation this off-season damned them from the start.