Why Zebby Matthews Is Getting The Call To The Twins, And What To Expect

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

Zebby Matthews is back. Although the Twins haven't officially announced a starter for Sunday's game, it's already been publicly reported that 24-year-old right-hander is line to make his 2025 MLB debut against the Brewers. As we await his highly anticipated return to the big leagues, let's examine why this decision was made and what to expect.

The Twins pitching pipeline has succeeded, to the point of having two and a half legitimate high-upside options waiting in the wings in Saint Paul. Making this more impressive is the fact that they aren’t waiting to replace a crusty veteran scrap heap signing who has struggled, but rather, a struggling pitcher who is actually still young and projectable. This isn’t news to anyone, but it’s still worth celebrating for a moment.

The true choice for this callup was Mattews or David Festa. Andrew Morris doesn’t have quite the shine or the upside of either Festa or Matthews, but he is a legitimate prospect who has moved quickly through the farm system. He profiles more as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. But, he realistically wasn’t an option for a call up, based on his 2025 performance to date. He hasn’t been missing many bats, and has gotten middling results. But why Zebby, when Festa has generally been the better pitcher, especially with the Twins?

The David Festa situation
Fans have seen plenty of Festa over the past couple seasons. The Slim Reaper has acquitted himself well, showing tantalizing flashes of a potential future as a frontline starter.

In three starts with the Twins, replacing Pablo López while he was dealing with a minor hamstring injury, Festa threw to a 1.38 ERA and 2.41 FIP. However, he averaged just 4 ⅓ innings per start, and walked 8.9% of the batters he faced. To avoid bullpen burnout, the Twins would prefer a starter who can be counted on to average at least five innings per turn.

Festa also hasn’t pitched since May 5th, skipping a start due to arm fatigue.

Hopefully this is just a proactive measure to get him rest, but it certainly raises potential questions around his health. He is expected to start this weekend, so fingers crossed. There’s also one more factor at play, aside from health.

Service time implications
Matthews being called up over Festa is probably at least partially a business decision.

A player accumulating 172 days of service time uses their first year of team control, and begins the countdown to free agency. Those first 172 days can come across multiple seasons. Basically, teams have an incentive to keep good prospects in the minors until they are needed to maximize team control. Applying this to the Festa and Matthews situation, a couple things stand out

There are 134 days in potential service time remaining, beginning on Sunday. By my math, Festa was in the majors for 80 days in 2024, and added another 14 covering for Lopez. This means that for the Twins to gain an additional year of team control for Festa, he will need to spend at least 57 days in the minors this season.

Matthews got called up on August 13th last season when Joe Ryan went down. He accrued 47 days through the end of the season. This gives him a bit more wiggle room compared to Festa: he needs to spend just 10 days in the minors to prevent accruing a full season.

Because of this, it’s likely that there’s some shuffling that happens at some point in 2025, and Matthews probably won’t be up for the entirety of the remaining season. Festa will still be needed, due to injury, ineffectiveness, or to give a fresh look to the rotation.

What to expect from Zebby
What do spring training and his 2025 start with the Saints tell us? Let's start with a look back. Matthews got his first call-up last season after starting the season at High-A Cedar Rapids. He wasn’t impressive in his first taste of the majors, pitching to a 6.69 ERA and a 5.72 FIP. Struggling a bit is to be expected from a guy lacking seasoning and pushed into duty a full season earlier than expected. Through his nine starts, Matthews gave up too much hard contact, and allowed home runs at an unworkable rate — 2.63 bombs allowed per nine innings pitched.

Despite having an arsenal of pitches, he allowed hard contact on all them but his slider. On his four-seam, his expected slugging was .595. The cutter was somehow worse, at .660. His curve got shelled too, with a .563 expected slugging rate. It was clear that he had some things to work through. Lauded for his control, Zebby posted video game walk rates all through the minors. His command, however? A real work in progress. With good-but-not-elite velocity and average-ish movement, he left too many pitches where hitters could do damage. In some ways, he resembled a Terry Ryan-style pitch to contact machine, albeit with better stuff.

Fast forward to 2025. During Spring Training, Matthews showed the unexpected — elite velocity for a starting pitcher. In his early starts in Saint Paul, he was touching 99 on his heater. He has scaled back a bit since then, but is still up a full tick compared to 2024. And, he kept his signature control despite the added velocity. Through seven Triple-A starts, he has held opposing hitters to a .611 OPS. He’s striking out more than 10 guys per nine innings.

Now, Triple-A is a different level of competition, to be sure. But, Matthews has limited his damage to a single homer across 32 innings pitched. He has pitched to a sparkling 1.93 ERA, with a 2.38 FIP that suggests his results haven’t been a mirage. 

How did he get here? As The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman identified in his top-40 prospect analysis headed into this season:

Quote

As his Twins debut showed, big-league hitters can catch up to mid-90s heat, so Matthews needs to refine his secondary pitches to be more than a strike-throwing back-end starter. If his cutter, slider or changeup becomes a reliable weapon, it would give him mid-rotation potential, and Matthews has shown the capacity for upside-altering improvement.

Good news. By Stuff+, all five of his pitches are now plus offerings, and his slider and cutter have become his best pitches.

By making an adjustment in his pitch mix, he’s lowered his hard-hit rate by 10% year over year, driven by significantly better results on his changeup. This is also great news, as he told Fangraphs that he was working on building confidence in his off speed weapon heading into the season.

Looking at Thomas Nestico's profile of Zebby's 2025 season, we see a few additional things. He’s giving up less contact in the zone with a 5.1% reduction compared to last year, suggesting that he’s gotten better at hitting his spots. He’s coaxing a few more ground balls as well, with a 1% increase year over year. His weighted on-base average is down a remarkable .99 points since 2024. That's the difference between a fifth starter and someone who could start playoff games.

So. Better secondary stuff. More velocity. Less hard contact. Better results in the zone. All of this suggests that Matthews may have solved his propensity for giving up the longball, and may be ready to take his next step forward. If his adjustments carry over to the Twins, the already-elite starting pitching corps just might get even better. Buckle up!

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[jmlease1]

I was hoping to see Festa back up, but if he's got a health issue (even if it's just preventative) then bringing up Matthews makes sense. He's been quite good and very effective in Saint Paul so far this season and certainly seems ready to get another bite at the big leagues. It's going to be interesting to see if the increased velocity is impactful for him in MLB and whether he's sharpened his other offerings enough to be successful.

Looking forward to seeing what Zebby has to bring to the table.

[mikelink45]

I am excited by this move and hope Zebby locks into the rotation and never leaves.

[Jeff K]

i like this move.  What a joy to have 7 starting  pitchers available.  The Twins are going to need continued great pitching as the injuries on the team have now reached epidemic levels.  They are scoring runs with smoke an mirrors.  By that I mean, guys (like Clemens) are producing beyond reasonable expectations.  This is fun!

[HrbieFan]

Take away his 9 run, 3HR game against Toronto and the 6 run game against Baltimore and Zebby was sensational last year.  Yes, 11 HR allowed in 37IP is way too high, the rest of the numbers are lit. I for one hope he steps in and never leaves the big club rotation 

[Fatbat]

Such a fine line but a mile wide between AAA best and MLB regular.  Zebby should be ready to roll this time around! 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am excited by this move and hope Zebby locks into the rotation and never leaves.

SWR has left the door wide open for Zebby to step in and take his spot in the rotation.  He just needs to do it.

[FlyingFinn]

Didn't think about the business side of things. Thanks for the info. If you think SWR, Festa and Matthews are all very closely rated (which I think the Twins do), I can certainly see using all 3 at times during the year. The real bonus is they can go to AAA and work on things they aren't so good at. Tough to do that in games in MLB. Plus, the Twins spread out their starts or skip a start at AAA, giving these young guys less innings for the year and a better chance to pitch well in September and October.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

21 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

SWR has left the door wide open for Zebby to step in and take his spot in the rotation.  He just needs to do it.

That is the reality of the situation.  If Zebby comes up and really deals, he's in and probably never leaves.  More likely, he will have some success -- probably more than last time -- and some struggle and go back down for a while, with Festa/SWR taking his place.  I'm very OK with that.  The rotation as currently constructed doesn't need Zebby to tear it up.  Just come up, be solid, and we're very happy.  The good news is that these MLB tours of duty are helping to build Zebby/Festa/SWR into solid MLB starters.  Ryan and Ober weren't good overnight either, but they just keep getting better.

[stringer bell]

Baseball Reference had Festa at 95 days of service time in 2025. Add the 14 days during Pablo's absence and he is at 109. The Slim Reaper would have to stay in the minors until about August 1 to avoid going over one year of service time. 

Matthews has 49 days of service time and would gain his first full year if he is not optioned to the minors the rest of the year

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Baseball Reference had Festa at 95 days of service time in 2025. Add the 14 days during Pablo's absence and he is at 109. The Slim Reaper would have to stay in the minors until about August 1 to avoid going over one year of service time. 

Matthews has 49 days of service time and would gain his first full year if he is not optioned to the minors the rest of the year

All true.

However I doubt service time is any kind of factor for the Twins. 

 

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

SWR has left the door wide open for Zebby to step in and take his spot in the rotation.  He just needs to do it.

It's worth noting that Simeon Woods-Richardson is younger than Zebby Matthews and David Festa. If those guys can learn and improve, so can Woods-Richardson.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Baseball Reference had Festa at 95 days of service time in 2025. Add the 14 days during Pablo's absence and he is at 109. The Slim Reaper would have to stay in the minors until about August 1 to avoid going over one year of service time. 

Matthews has 49 days of service time and would gain his first full year if he is not optioned to the minors the rest of the year

Woods-Richardson was just barely under 1 year of service time last year. He's controllable until 2030 and there really aren't any further benefits because he'll run out of options after this season.

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

All true.

However I doubt service time is any kind of factor for the Twins. 

 

I think service time and option considerations can factor in when performance is equal, kind of a tiebreaker. I don't think it was a tiebreaker in the current Matthews/Festa decision for a recall.

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Matthews has 49 days of service time and would gain his first full year if he is not optioned to the minors the rest of the year

Or next year, or the year after that. If he's optioned at any time between now and 2027 he has to stay in the minors for 15 days which costs him a year of service time.

[LambchoP]

Hopefully Zebby deals and forces the Twins to keep him in the rotation. I'm more worried about us scoring runs with all of our guys hurt. Our lineups filled with DFA and minor league guys. Still waiting on the Mccusker call up!

[IndianaTwin]

46 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

All true.

However I doubt service time is any kind of factor for the Twins. 

 

Concur. It's only May 17. As long as he stays healthy, it's very likely he'll be up by the All-Star break or sooner for someone else's injury anyway. Or even as an easy swap if Matthews isn't stellar. When you consider that SWR is being demoted, it's incredibly rare to have only had 15 days of IL time from any of their starters at this point in the season. I checked one time and on average, we're at something like starter No. 8 by this time already. 

At the most, service time is about No. 10 on the list of considerations.  

[Maybe Next Year]

The stat that Festa only averaged 4 1/3 innings per start is deceiving. Baldelli had much more to do with that than did Festa's pitching. 

[bean5302]

A recent drop in velo for Matthews corresponded to him getting knocked around hard, but he bounced back in both velo and results in his last start. It'll be interesting to see how hard Matthews is throwing on Sunday, and get some indications on how his pitches are working against MLB hitters.

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Hopefully Zebby deals and forces the Twins to keep him in the rotation. I'm more worried about us scoring runs with all of our guys hurt. Our lineups filled with DFA and minor league guys. Still waiting on the Mccusker call up!

Yes, I agree.  McCusker could be a key callup, maybe the Twins are afraid of his height.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Take away his 9 run, 3HR game against Toronto and the 6 run game against Baltimore and Zebby was sensational last year.  

Taking away 2 of 9 starts is not exactly a small percentage.

[DocBauer]

I don't think service time was an issue here. That's just a possible bonus depending how the rest of the season plays out. Festa is getting a respite due to some arm fatigue. It happens. Matthews is a high end prospect having a good season and his turn to pitch is up. It's a pretty easy call.

SIDE NOTE: It's been reported Festa has been throwing his 2 seamer much more as of late and is getting good results with it.

Despite some poor numbers/results when he debuted in 2024, Matthews did show some flashes of his stuff and potential. But when you begin the season at A+ and finish in a MLB rotation, there's going to be an adjustment period, especially if you're hitting a high IP total.

The added velocity absolutely helps. Better command of his secondaries and the ability to place the ball outside the zone for chase are part of that improved command. You can't ALWAYS be in the zone for ML hitters.

I don't know what to expect from him in his start, but I'm looking forward to at least a solid performance. 

I believe Festa and Matthews both have higher upsides than SWR. But less we forget, Sim is still only 24yo I believe, saved the Twins butt in 2024, and while his innings were nursed a bit to begin with, he was actually showing improvement and greater confidence as the season went along, before he hit a wall. He's lost some control and has to do a better job of finishing off hitters. He's got a lot of potential still. And this is much about a reset for him as a deserving opportunity for a young hurled.

But as has been pointed out, how great is it to have 4 veterans locked in in your rotation and you're rotating through 3 good young arms instead of replacing a burned out veteran, or bringing up another borderline veteran from your AAA staff?

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think service time and option considerations can factor in when performance is equal, kind of a tiebreaker. I don't think it was a tiebreaker in the current Matthews/Festa decision for a recall.

As the head of the organization has changed and the bottom line has become more difficult to maintain it would not be unreasonable to think service time matters