The Minnesota Twins are the Cleveland Guardians Lite

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

After two more walkoff losses to the Cleveland Guardians last week, the Minnesota Twins are 59-76 against their divisional foe since Derek Falvey joined the organization ahead of the 2017 season. In the last two years alone, the Twins are 4-13 with five walkoff losses (and seven others by two runs or less) against Cleveland. Despite the lopsided win-loss record, these matchups are traditionally close and low scoring, with an average score of 3.6-3.2 in favor of the Guardians. It should be no surprise that Falvey, the former architect of the Guardians’ pitching pipeline, has built a similarly strong pitching prospect group for the Twins. On the other hand, like the Guardians', the Twins' offense has been mediocre for much of Falvey’s tenure, frequently coming up short to support strong pitching performances.

While the Guardians have been competitive for the last decade, it’s resulted in just one American League pennant. That, paired with the Twins' inability to beat them, raises the question: is this really the blueprint the organization should be following? In one sense, the answer is clearly “yes.” While winning the World Series is always the goal, creating a sustainable product that can compete each year is a solid secondary objective. After all, the 1987 and 1991 Twins are examples of the premise that if you can get into the playoffs, anything can happen.

However, as the 2000s Twins learned, continually making it to October and coming up short comes with (arguably) more frustration from fans than the times when the club hasn't been competitive. Moreover, expectations of improvement or taking the figurative “next step” come with the territory of being a consistently competitive team. That's something that the Guardians haven't been able to accomplish in their decade-long run, much as the Twins have struggled to.

What makes it worse, though, is that the Twins seem to be the lite version of the Guardians—or, as John Bonnes said on the Common Man Dan Cole’s KFAN radio show on Friday, “the Twins aren't as good at being Cleveland as Cleveland is.” Not only did the pitching pipeline take a while to develop, but the Twins don't appear to have the hitting to convert all that pitching into wins. More specifically, they don't have the timely hitting required to consistently win. Unlike Cleveland, the Twins’ OPS with runners in scoring position is in the bottom half of the league since the start of last season. Over the same timeframe, the Twins have a  sub-.500 record in one-run games, and in extra-inning games.

This has all culminated in a team that is 15-20 this season. This has all culminated in a team that has one of the best rotations and bullpens in baseball, yet can't consistently win baseball games. This has all culminated in a team that looks lifeless at the plate and in the field.

While the Guardians model has led to a sustainable product, it hasn't been enough to get over the hump. Whether it's a good model for the Twins to follow is surely up for debate. One thing that isn't up for debate is that the Twins are the lite version of the Guardians right now.

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[Chris Hove]

Crazy how similar the comparisons are. Once Lewis, Castro, and Wallner get back hopefully we see a spike in runs, and improvement in the RISP. Although Wallner looks to be about a month away. The pitching staff is dialed in!!! Great article Matt.

[thelanges5]

Falvey came from Cleveland so it makes sense. Pohlads probably like the way the Dolans have a consistent product but spend in the bottom 1/3 of the league. It’s not about championships for them. It’s about business and making money. Joe recently lauded the Rays and Guardos as examples of how to be cheap and competitive. 

[laloesch]

11 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Falvey came from Cleveland so it makes sense. Pohlads probably like the way the Dolans have a consistent product but spend in the bottom 1/3 of the league. It’s not about championships for them. It’s about business and making money. Joe recently lauded the Rays and Guardos as examples of how to be cheap and competitive. 

Seems like Joe Pohlad is being a huge hypocrite then signing Correa to a 30 million a year contract and Buxton to a 16 million a year deal and whatever Lopez is getting.  All three should be traded (if possible as soon as possible, might take some negotiation to get them to waive their no trade clauses), to bring more talent to the team.

[LastOnePicked]

Huh, similar roster construction strategies and similar organizational philosophies, and yet vastly different results? I think we should look at every possible factor why the Twins constantly fall short against them except managing and coaching. Clearly, that can't possibly be an issue.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Seems like Joe Pohlad is being a huge hypocrite then signing Correa to a 30 million a year contract and Buxton to a 16 million a year deal and whatever Lopez is getting.  All three should be traded (if possible as soon as possible, might take some negotiation to get them to waive their no trade clauses), to bring more talent to the team.

Correa's deal is the only outlier that Cleveland wouldn't sign. Jose Ramirez isn't exactly playing for league minimum.

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Seems like Joe Pohlad is being a huge hypocrite then signing Correa to a 30 million a year contract and Buxton to a 16 million a year deal and whatever Lopez is getting.  All three should be traded (if possible as soon as possible, might take some negotiation to get them to waive their no trade clauses), to bring more talent to the team.

The kind of talent we get would always be questioned. Joe Ryan, Nelson Cruz, yes. Manuel Margot, nah.

[laloesch]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

The kind of talent we get would always be questioned. Joe Ryan, Nelson Cruz, yes. Manuel Margot, nah.

For Lopez?  I don't think so.

[MinnInPa]

this team just can not hit.. when your so called All Star K's over 35% of the time ..he cant be counted on anywhere in the lineup . personally i'd bat him 9th. Our best pure hitter is probably France. and one thing they do is beat themselves with constantly running on contact with a man on 3rd. this needs to stop. time and time again we see runner cut down at the plate easily when they do this. this is rally killer. go back to basics ..there is no reason to ever send the runner when ball is hit to the left side of infield. also ..start laying down the sac bunt more when we get 1st 2 guys on.. so often our group of K Kings follows up with the K..then DP ends inning

[Doctor Gast]

I think it's interesting that MN is 6th in projected fWAR at 36.6 & CLE is 19th at 31.4, I believe  MN has almost perennial beat CLE in fWAR but CLE has been more competitive than MN. I believe it's because CLE does the little things better, like developing their in-house players better & is managed better top to bottom, pitching not included.

[Patzky]

38 minutes ago, laloesch said:

For Lopez?  I don't think so.

The popular buzz is LA or the O's. Who we will see plenty of over the next two weeks. Meetings over coffee? Perhaps. Baltimore has young talent that is hurt and or struggled like who we have already. Choose carefully.

[The Great Hambino]

33 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think it's interesting that MN is 6th in projected fWAR at 36.6 & CLE is 19th at 31.4, I believe  MN has almost perennial beat CLE in fWAR but CLE has been more competitive than MN. I believe it's because CLE does the little things better, like developing their in-house players better & is managed better top to bottom, pitching not included.

CLE WPA (batters and pitchers combined): 3.0 (0.4 batting, 2.6 pitching)

MIN WPA: -2.4 (-2.8 batting, 0.4 pitching)

That certainly checks out.

I see team WAR as a sum-of-the-parts measure.  I don't love fWAR for pitching (FIP leaves too much meat on the bone for my taste) but bWAR projects the Twins to be .500 while Cleveland is a 66 win team.  Run differential tells a similar story.  

But one is much more than the sum of the parts, while the other is much less.  We can all draw our own conclusions as to why

[tony&rodney]

Why don't I see the similarities? Cleveland looks like they have more athletic players who run, field, and can play small ball. Those type of teams have some luck in close games. Minnesota is built to hit. The Twins pitching staff is quite good.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Twinsfan2121 said:

Crazy how similar the comparisons are. Once Lewis, Castro, and Wallner get back hopefully we see a spike in runs, and improvement in the RISP. Although Wallner looks to be about a month away. The pitching staff is dialed in!!! Great article Matt.

If we have to wait until Wallner returns it will be too late. They'll have a record of 25-35 and the season will be over.

[Chris Hove]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

this team just can not hit.. when your so called All Star K's over 35% of the time ..he cant be counted on anywhere in the lineup . personally i'd bat him 9th. Our best pure hitter is probably France. and one thing they do is beat themselves with constantly running on contact with a man on 3rd. this needs to stop. time and time again we see runner cut down at the plate easily when they do this. this is rally killer. go back to basics ..there is no reason to ever send the runner when ball is hit to the left side of infield. also ..start laying down the sac bunt more when we get 1st 2 guys on.. so often our group of K Kings follows up with the K..then DP ends inning

Yeah sac bunts are pretty much nonexistent. Bring it back, the Red Sox did it against us and it resulted in two runs.

[LambchoP]

Twins can't bunt, move runners over, hit with RISP or avoid K's in big situations. Way too many base running mistakes like automatically sending the runner at 3rd home no matter where the ball is hit. Sending runners who are slow when the batter is likely to K. Defense is a mess. Too many errors and plays not being made. For some reason our pitchers can't seem to throw the ball to first. All these things are fundamental and should be practiced daily. The players need to be better period, but also i think a lot of this has to be on Rocco for doing nothing at all to improve these mistakes.

[chpettit19]

I see the general similarity of pitching development that I think we should be encouraged Falvey has finally gotten the Twins to, but he went a pretty different direction on the position player side for a long time. They appear to be moving more towards the Cleveland side with a more athletic, contact based type now (Keaschall, DeBarge, Culpepper, Jenkins, Lee-although he's not athletic), but the difference in athleticism and defensive capabilities between these two teams has been staggering for years.

The Twins have more spending power than the Guardians do and they shouldn't follow their exact game plan. Building through pitching development is an absolutely great strategy as pitching is a great asset on the trade market if you can continually develop it. But the Twins being able to pay for more power than the Guardians should give them an advantage and allow them to do things differently. They just haven't been good at identifying or developing talent that performs for their extra money.

Generally speaking, though, every team is trying to develop as much talent on both the position player and pitching side as they can. The Twins seem to be figuring it out on the pitching side but still failing on the position player side (some of which is injury related). That makes them similar to the Guardians in that they have been good at preventing runs while struggling to score runs. But every team is trying to develop talent on both sides of the ball at all times. Neither of these teams are trying to develop pitching better than they develop hitting. They just happen to be better at the pitching side. And it's holding them both back.

[MinnInPa]

1 hour ago, Twinsfan2121 said:

Yeah sac bunts are pretty much nonexistent. Bring it back, the Red Sox did it against us and it resulted in two runs.

i hear Lewis and Castro are coming back soon.... Lewis is hittin under .200 at AAA.. i dont expect any increase in run production from these two at all.. just two more sub .250 hitters

[bean5302]

Great pitching vs. great results. Right now, the Twins starters are absolutely getting great results, but there is a substantial luck factor in play.

Twins starting pitchers over the past 2 weeks?
ERA = 2.34 = #1 in MLB
xFIP = 3.89 = #12 in MLB

It's critical to win games when the starting pitchers are getting results like this because regression says there's a 2 week stint in the future where the same quality 3.89 xFIP sees an ERA of 5.44.

That aside...

I don't see any similarities in roster construction between the Guardians and the Twins. The Guardians are younger and way cheaper. Their entire roster is built on the back of pre-arb guys they developed, and were even taught baseballs are for catching and throwing to other players, not kicking around the field like soccer or throwing past people like water polo. The Guardians' bigger contracts are way smaller than the Twins. The Guardians don't hoard their arb-eligible talent because they're too scared to let their young guys play. The Guardians play sound defense because it's easy to incorporate fundamentals and principles. It might not be as valuable as a good bat, but again, it's low-hanging fruit.

The Guardians build their rotation on young guys because they can tolerate one struggling starter getting experience as Cleveland knows they can trade those players while they're still young and maximize value. The Guardians don't wait until their prospects burn their options in the minors as "depth" behind low-ceiling pickups before getting them experience to find out how good they are, and there's no room for Pablo Lopez's contract in Cleveland. The Guardians' only significant veteran contract in the rotation is for their 26 year old ace they developed in house from the 2021 draft and pitched near 2 full seasons with ERA's of 2.98 and 3.47 (back to back, both better than any Twins SP has produced in a TC cap). Cleveland locked Bibee up almost immediately when he was still pre-arb. How are those 2021 Twins draft picks doing? Well, the first 5 picks are no longer in our organization as we ditched all of them and got one useful player back in all the trades, but Christian MacLeod is looking fairly decent in AA... Speaking of developing pitching. Since Falvey's start with the Twins, the Guardians have drafted 15 pitchers in the top 3 rounds including 6 - 1st rounders. Falvey? 7 pitchers in the top 3 rounds, and only 2 - 1st rounders. That's because Falvey is smarter than everybody else in baseball and he knows all you have to do is grab an 11th rounder, teach him to throw 8mph faster and they'll become studs for sure! Teams like the Rays and Guardians understand young, team controlled, high quality starters are the most valuable pieces in baseball so the Rays and Guardians load up early in the draft, knowing they can acquire what they need or rebuild from the surplus value leftover after trading their young pitching talent (before they hit age 30, unlike Falvey's Twins). The Guardians and Rays are willing to accept a terrible season or two if it means they get to the World Series every decade. The Guardians also don't trade away their comp picks to shuttle off a couple million for a veteran starter who can't get it done anymore like Falvey did with Phil Hughes because draft picks are the life-blood of small/medium sized organizations.

Of course, it's worth noting the Guardian aces who've won Cy Youngs and that kinda stuff can't compete against a generational talent like Bailey Ober if I am to believe some posters around here. 

C - a25 (p-arb) vs. a28 (arb1/$5MM)
1B - a39 (1y/$12MM) vs. a30 (1y/$1MM)
2B - a25 (p-arb) vs. a28 (arb3/$6MM)
SS - a24 (p-arb) vs. a30 (6-10y/$200-285MM)
3B - a32 (7y/$141MM) vs. a26 (arb1/$2MM)
LF - a27 (arb1/$4MM) vs. a31 (1y/$6MM)
CF - a23 (p-arb) vs. a31 (7y/$105MM)
RF - a23 (p-arb) vs. a27 (p-arb)
DH - a24 (p-arb) vs. a28 (arb1/$2MM)
SP1 - a26 (5y/$48MM) vs. a29 (4yr/$73.5MM)
SP2 - a33 (arb1/$2MM) vs. a29 (arb1/$3MM)
SP3 - a25 (p-arb) vs. a29 (arb1/$4MM)
SP4 - a26 (p-arb) vs. a29 (3y/$13MM)
SP5 - a26 (p-arb) vs. a24 (p-arb)
RP1 - a27 (arb2/$4MM) vs. a27 (arb1/$4MM)
RP2 - a26 (p-arb) vs. a30 (arb1/$2MM)
RP3 - a32 (1y/$4.5MM) vs. a35 (1y/$3MM)

The Guardians went to the World Series the year Falvey was hired and have followed it up with 5 more playoff appearances and 9 playoff wins while advancing 2x. Maybe they win playoff games because they're a good team who makes the playoffs, not a mediocre team playing in the worst division baseball has ever seen like how the Twins make it? After all, the Guardians have won 90 games FIVE TIMES since Falvey joined the Twins and the Twins have accomplished that just ONCE, in 2019 when almost the entire roster was composed of players from the previous regime.

These types of articles do a disservice to the quality systems in place in successful organizations like Cleveland. If it's not clear to people the Twins front office, coaching staff and management does not have the solution for bringing a World Series competitive team to Minnesota yet, it never will be.

[Schmoeman5]

@bean5302 Last year, according to you. The Guardians were lucky and big time regression was coming. In fact, you played the luck card last week. So now they're the model franchise. Which is it? I've said they're good, better than projections would lead you to believe. Now you want to let everyone know that Bailey Ober is the ONLY pitcher the Twins have developed under Falvey and that he's really not that good. I think the Twins should hire you and a few others. Turn things around quickly. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

@bean5302 Last year, according to you. The Guardians were lucky and big time regression was coming. In fact, you played the luck card last week. So now they're the model franchise. Which is it? I've said they're good, better than projections would lead you to believe. Now you want to let everyone know that Bailey Ober is the ONLY pitcher the Twins have developed under Falvey and that he's really not that good. I think the Twins should hire you and a few others. Turn things around quickly. 

Am I the only one you follow around and harass like an angry Karen around here? I will never take you back. You and I are through. Get it through your head. Whatever obsession you have with me... it's time to let it go. (I'm assuming you're a crazy ex at this point so I'm just guessing)

[Schmoeman5]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Am I the only one you follow around and harass like an angry Karen around here? I will never take you back. You and I are through. Get it through your head. Whatever obsession you have with me... it's time to let it go. (I'm assuming you're a crazy ex at this point so I'm just guessing)

I read every post. And your perception or rather "expertise" changes like the weather. If your takes change that often, you can never be wrong. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I think it's interesting that MN is 6th in projected fWAR at 36.6 & CLE is 19th at 31.4, I believe  MN has almost perennial beat CLE in fWAR but CLE has been more competitive than MN. I believe it's because CLE does the little things better, like developing their in-house players better & is managed better top to bottom, pitching not included.

I can't disagree. Although I really want to point out that Cleveland just seems so darn lucky. I suppose the "luck" probably comes because of the factors you mentioned. It's just so darn infuriating to witness all the one run wins against the Twins. 

[jkcarew]

Cleveland acquires and develops positional players pretty differently than the Twins. The players that emerge in their system have generally had better defensive, contact, and baserunning skills…and less power.

Pitching-wise, the Twins have been worlds behind Cleveland in development, although that seems, finally, to be trending in the Twins direction…maybe.

I don’t think aspiring to be Cleveland is the answer, but it does seem they have done more things ‘well’ than the Twins over the past decade plus.

[Ricky Vaughn]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 The Guardians also don't trade away their comp picks to shuttle off a couple million for a veteran starter who can't get it done anymore like Falvey did with Phil Hughes because draft picks are the life-blood of small/medium sized organizations.

Not to be picky but that was a Terry Ryan move.

[Road trip]

Could do worse than imitating Cleveland (Hello Colorado!), to whatever degree the Twins do...

Twins are a somewhat larger market than Cleveland, sure, but neither franchise is ever gonna spend like that Dodgers/Yankees/Mets/etc so they are more similar than different.

Pitching development has been good.  Position player development has struggled, as much due to injuries as bad identification of talent.  Throw in a little veteran dumpster diving as a difference compared to Cleveland (hint: They rarely do it with their lineup, the Twins seem to specialize in it)

Want to improve the team?  Invest that spare change rolling around the Pohlad's couch in the best training staff that money can buy instead of spending it on a Margot/Gallo/Farmer type of player.  Seriously, a significant portion of our lineup and our best hitting prospects were on the IL, again, for what seems like the 5th year in a row, before we even got to May.  Find a way to prevent the rash of soft tissue injuries that are suddenly endemic to the franchise.  That's the next competitive niche or baseball breakthrough to be pursued.  It may well cost millions, but it'll be millions well spent if it keeps Buxton, Royce, Wallner, Jenkins, ERod, etc, etc, etc on the field and off the IL.   This ain't football, but I swear the Vikings lose fewer players in a month of play.

[Aerodeliria]

11 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

I can't disagree. Although I really want to point out that Cleveland just seems so darn lucky. I suppose the "luck" probably comes because of the factors you mentioned. It's just so darn infuriating to witness all the one run wins against the Twins. 

The reason the Guardians are lucky is that they tend not to make fundamental errors, which the Twins seem obsessed with making. I'm not sure how many times I have been viewing a late inning game and begging the batter to hit it somewhere up the middle, so either Buxton or Correa field the ball. If it's hit to 2nd, hold your breath; if it's hit to third, cover your eyes; if it's hit to the mound, put a batting helmet on....