Minnesota Twins’ 2025 Payroll Offers Glimpse Into Financial Flexibility and Future Uncertainty

[Cody Christie]

The Twins’ payroll has been scrutinized since ownership dropped spending by $30 million entering the 2024 season. That was disappointing, but fans must understand how the Twins compare to spending in the rest of the league for 2025 and beyond.

 

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Coming off an offseason of further de facto cost-cutting, the Minnesota Twins entered the 2025 season with a payroll that sits in the middle of the pack by most measures. While they still boast the highest payroll in the American League Central (according to one metric), it’s clear that ownership’s financial strategy is evolving, especially in light of ongoing speculation about the club’s potential sale. The payroll data offers insight into how the Twins stack up with the rest of the league and what lies ahead for the franchise.

A Tale of Two Payroll Rankings
Let’s start with the basics: MLB's Labor Relations Department estimates the Twins’ payroll for the 2025 season at $146.7 million. That figure ranks 18th across Major League Baseball, but tops the AL Central, a division known more for frugality than financial muscle. In a vacuum, that would suggest the Twins are the division’s biggest spenders, maintaining at least a modest competitive edge within their neighborhood. However, not all payroll numbers are created equal.

FanGraphs’s estimate, which includes a more comprehensive look at costs like player benefits and minor-league salaries that count toward the luxury tax threshold (Competitive Balance Tax), paints a slightly different picture. By that count, the Twins’ CBT payroll for 2025 comes in at $156.9 million, ranking them 20th in MLB and third in the AL Central, behind the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals. That’s a less flattering position for a club that has playoff goals in 2025.

A Balanced But Unique Payroll Structure
One of the more interesting aspects of Minnesota’s current roster is how the payroll is allocated. Unlike teams that lean heavily on expensive free agents or long-term veteran deals, the Twins have a more balanced distribution of dollars.

Minnesota ranks 18th in MLB in the percentage of payroll tied to guaranteed contracts, with 71.9% of their salary spending falling into this category. That’s a signal that while they have core pieces locked up (like Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton), the team is not bogged down by an excess of long-term commitments. This flexibility can be valuable, especially for a mid-market team that needs to adapt quickly to performance trends and health situations.

Compared to other teams, a bigger slice of Minnesota’s payroll pie is devoted to players eligible for arbitration—20.6%, to be exact. That’s the ninth-highest mark in the majors, and it reflects the reality that the Twins are leaning on a strong group of players in or approaching their prime. Names like Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax, and Ryan Jeffers fall into this group. One benefit of arbitration is that these players often provide meaningful on-field contributions at below-market rates.

The remainder of the payroll (7.5%) is made up of pre-arbitration players, putting the Twins squarely in the middle of the league at 15th overall. These are typically younger players making the league minimum or slightly above it, like Edouard Julien, Louis Varland, and Matt Wallner. These players provide crucial surplus value, and are a key reason the team can afford to invest in a few bigger-ticket players at the top of the roster.

Future Commitments: Flexibility or Uncertainty?
Looking ahead, the Twins’ long-term commitments are relatively modest. For the 2026 season, they have $72.5 million on the books, again ranking 18th in baseball. That number drops to $68.7 million for 2027 (13th overall) and $46.5 million in 2028 (13th), with the bulk of those dollars tied up in Correa, López, and Buxton.

There are two ways to interpret this. Optimistically, it’s a sign that Minnesota has plenty of flexibility to retool or extend key players in the coming years. There’s room to maneuver, especially if top prospects like Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, or Emmanuel Rodriguez emerge as impact players with highly affordable salaries.

But on the flip side, the relatively light future commitments may reflect the organization’s hesitancy to commit amid ownership uncertainty. With the Pohlad family reportedly exploring a sale of the team, it's fair to wonder whether long-term financial decisions are being put on pause. After all, it’s easier to sell a team with minimal financial encumbrances. That could explain the leaner offseason and the club’s overall wait-and-see approach with extensions and free-agent investments.

What Does It All Mean?
In the short term, the Twins' payroll structure suggests a team trying to remain competitive while maintaining flexibility. They're leaning on a healthy arbitration class and cost-controlled young talent, with a few big-name veterans anchoring the roster. For a team in a weak division, that could be enough to stay in the race.

But the longer-term picture is murkier. Without a significant increase in spending or a new ownership group willing to invest more aggressively, the Twins may find it hard to keep up with the league’s middle tier. While their current financial state is relatively healthy, the team’s next few offseasons will be telling. Will the front office be afforded the payroll flexibility to push chips in when prospects arrive? Will they extend key players or let them walk? For now, the Twins are walking the payroll tightrope by balancing competitiveness, flexibility, and an uncertain ownership future.

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How do you feel about Minnesota’s payroll? What about the team’s future commitments? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Whitey333]

One very frustrating thing to me is if the Twins have the highest payroll in the Central the bigger problem is the poor job the Front Office, Falvey, have done in distributing those funds.  Having spent so much of available payroll on just a few players has always seemed bordering on malfeasance.   I am NOT a Pohlad fan but I believe the payroll dollars are adequate when compared to the rest if the central and baseball in general.  A payroll of $145 million for a mid market team should be sufficient.  After all many teams do great with less payroll dollars than the Twins.  I would like to see an article devoted to the job Falvey has done in distributing the payroll dollars.  

[Mark G]

The frustration for me is the constant comparison to the Central Division, and only the Central Division.  If we are going to be satisfied to just compete in our division, getting to the playoffs and hoping for the best, then why watch the regular season?  Just wait until Sept and see where they are; pay attention then, or wait until next Sept.  It would be nice if we would attempt to compete with the AL.  And, yes, I get we will never spend with the Yankees, Red Sox, and maybe the Angels, but I would hope we would look past our division when it comes to competing especially with fewer inter division games under the new scheduling.  Maybe we would sell the 2 mil plus tickets they say they need to do that, because I seem to remember payroll is not the only thing we rank somewhere around 18th; we rank there in attendance as well.  A coincidence?  🤔

[Finfineman]

Baseball is broken.....Dodgers 2025 payroll is 321 million.  Ohtani's one year salary - 70 million.  A's, Tampa and Marlins entire rosters are between 70 and 80 million a year.  Baseball is broken.  Why bother?

[Linus]

“Cost controlled young talent” - yea I don’t see it. 

[TopGunn#22]

That's an excellent point Finfineman, and of course, the solution would be a salary cap and a minimum floor for salaries as well.  But we know the MLB players union will never allow that.  They could go on strike for 2 solid years and neither the players or owners would blink.  So we're at a standoff.  

We may have baseball Armageddon on the horizon, but for Twins fans we're already in baseball hell with an ownership family many Twins fans have despised for years and star players (Buxton, Correa, Lewis) who are hurt far more than they are healthy and productive.

The manager frustrates a majority of Twins fans as well.  Add everything up...A team that is very slow out of the gate and appears listless.  Ownership who is despised.  A manager who frustrates us consistently and underperformance of star players (Buxton, Correa) or the consistent absence of the younger, cornerstone player (Lewis) and you're looking at a fanbase that is apathetic 11 games into the season.

The Pohlad family is going to lose a ton of money this season.  I wonder when they wake up and realize their asset isn't worth anywhere near what they think it is especially with the $450 million dollar debt burden.  Football season can't come soon enough.  

[The Great Hambino]

I'm seeing roughly $35MM coming off the books next year if no options are exercised.  But I'm also seeing 11 guys in the arb cycle, meaning some built-in raises are on the way.  I also think it's safe to say that payroll is more likely to decrease than increase in this environment of uncertainty and fan apathy.

If things keep going the way they have been, is a tear down/rebuild even a realistic option?  Other than Pablo, they're stuck with the guarantees on the books (even if they could convince Byrlos Buxrea to waive their no trades, who the hell is giving up value for them?).  Among the arb guys, I'm sure Ober and Ryan could fetch a return, but who else can bring enough back to make a rebuild worthwhile?  One year of Jeffers?  One of the relievers?  Royce the Broken?  I'm no GM, but it doesn't seem like there's a ton of value to be harvested from that crop.

Any improvement in the roster next year will have to include pre-arb guys taking some spots from arb guys (whether through trade or nontender) to a degree that would allow for some FA acquisitions while still lowering payroll overall.  That's a tight needle to thread.  So if they stay on the current course, they really need to get an idea of what they have in that potential pre-arb group this year so they can know where to pivot next year.

[Peter]

Everything will work out just fine!!  Twins are in bad slump nothing is going right-can’t catch any breaks. Need full team healthy as far as football is concerned I could care less about that right now-we need to support the twin win or lose more then ever along with wild and Timberwolves!!!

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

One very frustrating thing to me is if the Twins have the highest payroll in the Central the bigger problem is the poor job the Front Office, Falvey, have done in distributing those funds.  Having spent so much of available payroll on just a few players has always seemed bordering on malfeasance.   I am NOT a Pohlad fan but I believe the payroll dollars are adequate when compared to the rest if the central and baseball in general.  A payroll of $145 million for a mid market team should be sufficient.  After all many teams do great with less payroll dollars than the Twins.  I would like to see an article devoted to the job Falvey has done in distributing the payroll dollars.  

So, your solution is to get rid of the two best position players (Correa/Buxton) and our best starting pitcher?  Then what?  Sign more modest price free agents?  Those three players produced 11.2 WAR for a total of  $74,225,857 which is 6,627,309 per WAR which is well below league average.

Signing aa larger number of modest price free agents is the exact opposite of what I see most people advocating here.  Most posters advocate the Pablo Lopez type or better and less of the modest priced free agents so it sure seems like you are among a small minority that don't want premium players signed.

You would have something to complain about if the big three were producing at below average levels per dollar spent or maybe even if they were performing at league average in terms of production per dollar spent.  To complain about players producer well above average per dollar spent makes no sense.

BTW ... The Twins have $32.5M coming off the books next year from Vasquez, Bader, Columbe, Paddack and Correa's salary decrease.  That will easily cover the arbitration increases.  They are also likely to have a significant infusion of low cost talent (Rodriquez / Jenkins / Keaschall / Matthews / Festa / Prielipp / Morris / Raya).  Obviously all of them won't pan out be these players will allow the Twins to trade players like Larnach and one of Ober / Ryan / Lopez).  This will infuse even more low cost talent and at the same time moving more expensive talent.  I just don't see the problem other than the obvious revenue inequity that requires the type of practices mentioned above.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

why watch the regular season? 

Because baseball games are fun to watch, even if your team loses?

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Among the arb guys, I'm sure Ober and Ryan could fetch a return, but who else can bring enough back to make a rebuild worthwhile?  One year of Jeffers?  One of the relievers?  Royce the Broken?  I'm no GM, but it doesn't seem like there's a ton of value to be harvested from that crop.

Jax and Duran will have plenty of interested buyers. I am expecting Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and several relievers (Stewart, Topa, Coulombe, Tonkin) to be traded at the deadline. A rebuild has to happen.

[LambchoP]

We better hope our top prospects pan out. Lee, Keaschal, Jenkins, Rodriguez. Also our "pitching pipeline" needs to show up. Without these young guys, we won't have a chance. With Correa and Buxton making like 60-70 million a year, there won't be any help coming from outside the organization, at least not with the Pohlads. New ownership can't come soon enough.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because baseball games are fun to watch, even if your team loses?

I am in that group. I generally enjoy watching the Twins whether they win or lose.

I do not buy the concept that we as fans should be satisfied with the current payroll situation. This team financially underperforms it's market expectations. There have been articles aplenty about the media situations, the team's general lack of caring for the fans, and the strictly business aspect of running this team. unfortunately, in spite of all that garbage, I will still watch (and listen more when they finally fire Gladden from the radio. So bad.)

[tony&rodney]

The Twins can put a team on the field next year with a $100 million payroll and be as competitive as the team will be in 2025. The major question is who puts that team together. We have not seen much from the current front office group. 

[Vanimal46]

Doesn’t matter the industry… If you’re spending more on the product than your direct competitors with poor outcomes, changes are on the way soon. If the season is lost, I expect Lopez at the very least getting traded to lower expenses

[IndianaTwin]

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

One very frustrating thing to me is if the Twins have the highest payroll in the Central the bigger problem is the poor job the Front Office, Falvey, have done in distributing those funds.  Having spent so much of available payroll on just a few players has always seemed bordering on malfeasance.   I am NOT a Pohlad fan but I believe the payroll dollars are adequate when compared to the rest if the central and baseball in general.  A payroll of $145 million for a mid market team should be sufficient.  After all many teams do great with less payroll dollars than the Twins.  I would like to see an article devoted to the job Falvey has done in distributing the payroll dollars.  

Sometimes it seems like most articles on TD are devoted to the job Falvey has done in distributing the payroll dollars.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Doesn’t matter the industry… If you’re spending more on the product than your direct competitors with poor outcomes, changes are on the way soon. If the season is lost, I expect Lopez at the very least getting traded to lower expenses

As I am sure you know, Lopez is signed through the 27 Season.  Season lost or not, I think the determining factor will be if a couple of SP prospects among the group of (Matthews/Festa/ Prielipp/Morris/Raya) give real good reasons to believe they will have an excess of starting pitching.  I know there is theoretically no such thing but if a couple of these guys really step up, they could move one of Lopez/Ryan or Ober for a very good bat.  In the process they might be able to also shed some salary.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Sometimes it seems like most articles on TD are devoted to the job Falvey has done in distributing the payroll dollars.

The Pohlad family has received more criticism than anyone else. I will not argue the fairness of that.

Falvey and the Twins front office has received very little criticism that I have read. The relatively recent statements that the Twins have outspent their divisional opponents during the Falvey era has opened a few people towards examining how resources have been allocated. There have been criticisms after the fact, such as Joey Gallo or Manuel Margot, but by and large Twins Daily has been very supportive of this front office. 

[palmspringstwinsfan]

The article misses the main problem with the payroll in that it’s way too top heavy. Three players, two who are frequently injured, make up 50% of the entire payroll. And the next 2 more highly paid -Paddack and Vazquez-provide no positive value. So the Twins have a Kirk Cousins issue-poor allocation leading to a lack of investment in quality depth, meaning over reliance on prospects and suspects. Couple that with very little recent investment in the major league roster and you end up with a 15-35 record in the last 50 games. 

[rv78]

Every time I see a picture of Derek Falvey I think of one thing. He looks like a doofus. He always has a stupid grin on his face like he knows he's buffaloed the Pohlads into thinking he actually knows what he is doing. So far, he hasn't proven me wrong. 

[shimrod]

Pohlads have shown their cards with the sale. I will be shocked if salary coming off the books, by expiration or trade, is applied to roster upgrades. The kids will have to sink or swim on their own. 

And considering the track record of recent graduates from our so-called player development pipeline, it will be sink. The pitching pipeline does look better than, say, five years ago. The focus on pitching development appears to have resulted in neglect of the fielding side. No defense, no fundamentals, no hitting. 

[Bodie]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Jax and Duran will have plenty of interested buyers. I am expecting Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and several relievers (Stewart, Topa, Coulombe, Tonkin) to be traded at the deadline. A rebuild has to happen.

I can think of about four AL Central teams willing to pay for the Twins to actually keep Jax the way he is going!

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Pohlad family has received more criticism than anyone else. I will not argue the fairness of that.

Falvey and the Twins front office has received very little criticism that I have read. The relatively recent statements that the Twins have outspent their divisional opponents during the Falvey era has opened a few people towards examining how resources have been allocated. There have been criticisms after the fact, such as Joey Gallo or Manuel Margot, but by and large Twins Daily has been very supportive of this front office. 

My statement was "Sometimes it seems like most articles on TD are devoted to the job Falvey has done in distributing the payroll dollars."

I didn't put a value judgment on whether people think he's done a good or bad job. I was saying that it often feels like payroll distributions are overanalyzed to death. There's only so many ways one can dissect a trade/non-trade of Vazquez/Paddack/Castro in exchange for salary relief to sign XYZ. 

-------------

That said, I'm remembering things differently than you. I don't think that by and large Twins Daily has been "very supportive of this front office." Certainly not the resulting comments. By and large I'm remembering the signings of France, Bader, Coulombe (less so), Thielbar, Okert, Jackson, Staumont, Solano, Taylor, Santana and Gallo as being met mostly with disdain from the beginning. I'm remembering immediate panning of picking up the option on Farmer and to a lesser extent picking it up for both Kepler and Polanco and then trading Polanco for a deal that only netted Margot. And this offseason it was, "Gotta trade at least one of Vazquez, Paddack, Castro or even Lopez for salary relief." If I went back further, I'd pick up the grumbling about signing Bundy, Archer, Shoemaker. And all those don't count the angst of the front office not having done multiple signings by November or at least December and certainly by early January each year.

---------------

In rereading the string, I'm wondering if we may have been talking about slightly different things. 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

In rereading the string, I'm wondering if we may have been talking about slightly different things. 

Yes. This. No problem. 

[IndianaTwin]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes. This. No problem. 

Oops. Didn't finish my comments. My response was mostly directed at people's comments, though I think there's plenty of it in the articles as well.

Perhaps you were focusing on the articles themselves. Those are more certainly more balanced than the comments. 

[bean5302]

On 4/9/2025 at 7:20 AM, Mark G said:

The frustration for me is the constant comparison to the Central Division, and only the Central Division.  If we are going to be satisfied to just compete in our division, getting to the playoffs and hoping for the best, then why watch the regular season?  Just wait until Sept and see where they are; pay attention then, or wait until next Sept.  It would be nice if we would attempt to compete with the AL.  And, yes, I get we will never spend with the Yankees, Red Sox, and maybe the Angels, but I would hope we would look past our division when it comes to competing especially with fewer inter division games under the new scheduling.  Maybe we would sell the 2 mil plus tickets they say they need to do that, because I seem to remember payroll is not the only thing we rank somewhere around 18th; we rank there in attendance as well.  A coincidence?  🤔

The AL Central has been well represented in the playoffs and World Series over the past decade or so, but the Twins have rarely been good. There is only 1 time under Derek Falvey's leadership the Twins have finished the season with more than 87 wins, and in general, 87 wins has less than a 10% chance to make the playoffs in MLB.

AL Central Deep Playoff Runs recently
2014 Royals World Series
2015 Royals World Series Champions
2016 Guardians World Series
2024 Guardians AL Championship Series

We don't rank 18th in attendance. The Twins generally rank about 5 spots lower in attendance than payroll. The Twins have one of the lowest ticket prices in baseball. The Twins have a major marketing problem, but even if they were good at marketing, I don't think payroll would climb a ton.