Twins 6, Astros 1: Twins Get Their First Win at Home

[Sherry Cerny]

Bailey Ober and the Twins were both seeking redemption in game two of the Astros series, and they did not disappoint. Signs of life in the lineup and pitching were a vast improvement over Thursday's home opener. 

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober 4 P,  3 H, 1 ER,  2 BB,  5 K (84 pitches, 54 strikes (64%))
Home Runs:  Jose Miranda (1)
Top 3 WPA: Jose Miranda (.242), Ty France (.099), Bailey Ober (.084)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

 

The game started out with Jose Altuve wasting no time making up for his five-strikeout game on Thursday by hitting a home run off the first pitch, putting the Astros up 1-0 immediately. Altuve has seen Ober twice; both times, home runs.  

Ober had a drop in velocity over spring training, and it has yet to increase through these two starts. Through the the second inning he had already thrown 44 pitches, but ended up getting out of a jam after the first two batter reached base, and then he retired the side in order in the third. 

 

Astros pitcher, Spencer Arrighetti, put the Twins away six up, six down in the first two innings. The offense was able to find the ball with the barrel, but they also found gloves. The third inning showed a little promise when Edouard Julien and Christian Vazquez walked, but Carlos Correa’s at-bat ended with a pop-out to first baseman, Christian Walker, stranding them.

Up to that point, Vasquez was 0-11 to the start this season. 

The fourth inning saw more Astros reach base, but Ober escaped giving up any runs, but also had 84 pitches. In the bottom half, the Twins got on base, at the expense of Byron Buxton taking a pitch to the hand. Buck was visibly uncomfortable but stayed in the game and stole second base. The momentum continued with a walk by Trevor Larnach , and a single line-drive to left field, combined with a bobble from Altuve, scored Buxton standing up, tying up the game 1-1. 

The bats continued to heat up. Jose Miranda , who has really struggled, waited patiently worked his way back from an 0-2 count before making contact and getting his first home run of the season (and since July 2024), scoring Larnach and Ty France.

 

The Twins were up 4-1 and firing up the crowd and dugout as Vasquez, no longer hit-less, smacked a deep ball into left and dug in to get a stand-up double, prompting the Astros pitching change and bringing up Matt Wallner. Wallner hit a line drive to right, hugging the line, scoring Vasquez, with a stand-up (back-to-back) double. Twins 5-1. Everyone would have a chance to come to the plate this inning, with Correa hitting a chopper to pitcher Tyler Scott, who misthrew the ball to first base, allowing Wallner to score. Twins. 6-1. 

All it took was a smack on the hand to Buxton for this team to come alive, sending a message: don’t hit our guy. The inning ended the same way it started, with Buxton at the plate, this time a fly ball to center ended his plate appearance. 

Pitcher Louis Varland replaced Ober, and the Astros threatened to add to their run total with runners on each corner. But Varland struck out Christian Walker to move the game into the sixth. Varland now has eight strikeouts in five innings with his transition to middle relief, and his fastball reached 99.9 mph today.  

 

 

The Twins bullpen has certainly done its job to keep the score down and the game in line. Cole Sands came in to relieve Varland with a 1-2-3 inning. Jorge Alcala came in the seventh and looked strong, but quickly loaded up the bases. Pitching coach Pete Maki had to come out and calm his reliever down with Yordan Alvarez at the plate and bases loaded. Alcala responded with a strikeout looking versus Alvarez, and got Walker to fly out to Larnach. 

Justin Topa also had a scoreless inning, keeping the Twins locked in at 6-1 heading into the ninth inning, to give Jhoan Duran a chance to close out the game. Duran gave up one hit to Altuve, but shut the rest of the line up down for the first win at home of 2025! 

 

It was the longest game this season thus far for the Twins. They continued to show there are gaps in the starting pitching and long at-bat battles with hitters at some points, but it was a great opportunity to see what the club is capable of, especially after losing the home opener. 

What’s Next? 
The Twins finish out their home series against the Houston Astros. Chris Paddack (0-1; 24.30 ERA) taking the bump against Ronel Blanco (0-1; 5.40 ERA) at 1:10PM CST. The club then heads to Kansas City for its second round of divisional games.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage

 

 

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[Patzky]

A winza win! 

[TheLeviathan]

Love how much more aggressive our running game is this year.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd thought that Varland would get the win for finishing the 5th

[Blyleven2011]

I like what I'm seeing from the bullpen  ...

Sure they give up hits but they aren't walking anyone ...

In the past a pitcher would come in and walk the first batter he faced and then the hits and was scored upon  , keep from walking anyone and the bullpen will be fine ...

[Doctor Gast]

Good pitching & Miranda showed up. Great game. Hope that it opens good things for Miranda.

[USAFChief]

38 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd thought that Varland would get the win for finishing the 5th

The pitcher of record when the Twins took the lead was Ober. He can't get awarded a W (needs to go 5). 

At that point, it's up to the discretion of the storekeeper.  They'll often give the W to whoever pitched "most effectively." An argument can be made that was Sands.

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

24 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The pitcher of record when the Twins took the lead was Ober. He can't get awarded a W (needs to go 5). 

At that point, it's up to the discretion of the storekeeper.  They'll often give the W to whoever pitched "most effectively." An argument can be made that was Sands.

 

 

Correct on the “most effective” consideration. In fact, it’s not just that they “often” do, but the rules require it in today’s situation.

There’s judgment in that, but looking at the pitching lines, it’s pretty clearly Sands. He was the only reliever to go 1-2-3 and did it with two strikeouts. Varland and Alcala each put two runners on base and Topa and Duran one apiece.

The scorekeepers guide says that if two pitchers are essentially equal, you go with the earlier one, but Varland didn’t have a line similar to Sands. 

[stringer bell]

The bullpen is looking pretty good. Alcalá seems to be either dominating or very concerning. He walked up to the brink today, but recovered to work a scoreless inning. The offense has looked mostly feeble, with a few big innings and they really need to put more pressure on the other team.

[IndianaTwin]

Also, I know we’re still in SSS territory, but the “best bullpen in baseball” has a 2.25 ERA at this point, so so far, so good. 

[DocBauer]

I didn't get to watch any of the game due to work, I only have the box score, this report, and small tidbits, but:

1] Hayes reports Ober's velocity was up. That's a good thing. Considering what Ober has already proven in his career, I'm not worried until there is something obvious to worry about. He's said his mechanics have been a little off. I think he'll be fine.

2] The pen has largely been very good thus far. They've even got contributions from Dobnak and McCaughan to some degree. Varland is still adapting to the pen full time and hasn't exactly been perfect. But the K's show what he's capable of. They need to stick with him for sure. And I agree with previous comments that the low BB numbers have been encouraging. So far so good with the pen.

3] I have disagreed with a lot of comments about Buxton losing a step. I thought he was still excellent in CF in 2024, just holding up on a few plays to save his body. While he may have lost a half step due to age, he's gone from maybe the fastest player in MLB to one of the fastest. No crying over that!

4] I know it's easier said than done, but if Miranda can just it through his head that "all contact isn't good contact" and can SOMEHOW train his brain to just STOP the weak contact on the outside and down stuff, he can be a very good hitter. We've seen him do that in stretches. The HR he hit today is example of what he can do. What he did for about 4 months of his rookie season has shown what he's capable of. What he did in 2024 before he tweaked his back shows what he's capable of. 

Jokingly, how about he does 20 push-ups in the dugout every time he swings at those low and outside pitches he either misses or taps weakly? Train the brain to just leave those pitches alone and we have a really good hitter. Honestly, I'd rather see him K by taking a great low and outside pitch rather than give in to his instincts to attempt to put the bat on the ball.

5] Despite how horrible the offense has been through 8 games, it's still a SSSS and disappointing as hell. But they've also had a couple games, like this one, where you can still see the potential for a decent offense, if not a great one.

6] While they'd still be under .500, beating the Astros in the 3rd game would make me/all of us feel a bit better i think.

7] What's up with the schedule makers? 6 games on the road, 3 home games, then another 4 road games to open the season? I know it will even out...perhaps to the Twins advantage at some point...but I don't know that I've ever seen a 10-3 road vs home game start to a schedule before.

[jkcarew]

Sands off to great start. Seems to have good command of at least 3 of his offerings…if not 4. His approach seems starter-like. Mixes 3 or 4 offerings right from the start. For instance, threw an 80 mph curve for a strike taken to get ahead today. “Average-ish” stuff really plays up when you consistently throw multiple offerings where you want to throw them.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I didn't get to watch any of the game due to work, I only have the box score, this report, and small tidbits, but:

1] Hayes reports Ober's velocity was up. That's a good thing. Considering what Ober has already proven in his career, I'm not worried until there is something obvious to worry about. He's said his mechanics have been a little off. I think he'll be fine.

3] I have disagreed with a lot of comments about Buxton losing a step. I thought he was still excellent in CF in 2024, just holding up on a few plays to save his body. While he may have lost a half step due to age, he's gone from maybe the fastest player in MLB to one of the fastest. No crying over that!

Ober's velocity was quite a bit below last season. His fastball was 90-91 and he clearly labored to get through 4 innings.

Buxton's speed is in the 99th percentile on Baseball Savant this season - 29.5 ft/sec. He's fast as hell right now.

[DocBauer]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ober's velocity was quite a bit below last season. His fastball was 90-91 and he clearly labored to get through 4 innings.

Buxton's speed is in the 99th percentile on Baseball Savant this season - 29.5 ft/sec. He's fast as hell right now.

Ober's velocity usually sits 90-92 mph. His extension and deception makes it look harder. If his mechanics are out of whack, that's where he gets in trouble.

His laboring through 4 IP is an issue to be sure. But if he really has been struggling some with his mechanics, then his last start is still an improvement. I'm not going to worry until I see more.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

7] What's up with the schedule makers? 6 games on the road, 3 home games, then another 4 road games to open the season? I know it will even out...perhaps to the Twins advantage at some point...but I don't know that I've ever seen a 10-3 road vs home game start to a schedule before.

I thought it was intentional to ensure there are less games when it's cold here. In 2024, 12 of our first 17 games were on the road. In 2023, it was 13 of 19.

[UK Twin]

Altuve clearly bobbled that ball because of who was at 2nd base. Only Buxton could have scored on that play, even after he misread where the ball was going to land. 

Good win and good to see Ober bounce back, even if he had to work hard to get out of a couple of innings. Great at bat from Miranda for his HR - laid off some tough pitches before smacking one into the LF seats.

---

 

[Karbo]

My concern is how they get the 1 big inning, and nothing else. Glad to see Miranda getting the bomb, I hope it's just the start for him.

[Linus]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ober's velocity was quite a bit below last season. His fastball was 90-91 and he clearly labored to get through 4 innings.

Buxton's speed is in the 99th percentile on Baseball Savant this season - 29.5 ft/sec. He's fast as hell right now.

I believe he was clocked at 31 ft/sec beating out a base hit recently which is otherworldly. This was mentioned on the broadcast. 

[stringer bell]

It is great to see Buxton demonstrating his elite speed. SSS, but he still runs further down the line than anyone when sprinting to first, so he still seems to have a bit of a problem slowing the freight train down, but the speed is legit and compared to just about every other player on the roster, it is otherworldly.

It wasn't classic Bailey Ober yesterday, but he got through four innings and only allowed a solo homer to score. Pretty gritty. I've seen a couple references to his velocity, but 91-92 on a cool day in early April looks about right for him. 

I continue to wonder what the Twins have in Topa. There is some funk to his delivery and if he can keep making hitters pound ground balls, he should be all right. In addition, he's only had one healthy season in the majors and he's 34 years old, so I think that will be a worry. 

It's hard to trust Alcalá or Varland. Alcalá can blow up out of nowhere and Louie er Louis allows a lot of hard hit balls, but as middle men all three guys (including Topa) look satisfactory. In one or two run games, it looks like Sands, Jax and Durán are the obvious choices. 

[jmlease1]

Disappointing to see Ober labor through only 4; he's an important part of this rotation and they need him to get deeper into games. Hopefully the increase in velocity is a sign that he's getting closer to where he was last season.

Good work by the bullpen, but I'm a little surprised and disappointed that Varland is being used exclusively as a 1-inning guy; I don't think they're very interested in pitching him back to back either, so why not let him go 2 especially in a game like this where you needed 5 relievers to finish it? Seems like they've decided to run 7 1-inning guys and a long man, which I don't love. But the bullpen did a nice job in what they were asked to do, and you can see why people were high on this group going into the season.

I'd like to see the offense be more consistent; one big inning and then nothing is a bit nervous. But when they put up 6 runs on the board, I'm not going to complain too much about how they got there. Hopefully things are starting to warm up with some guys and they can get rolling.

A win is a win, and now they're in position to take the series. Let's goooooo...

[LambchoP]

Great to get a win at home,but saw some concerning trends. Our starters need to be more efficient and get deeper in games. If Varland, Dobnak or Mcgaughan have to come in during the fifth inning so often, our pen is going to be taxed way too early. The low velo from Ryan and Ober doesn't bother me too much unless it continues for much longer. Could just be the cold weather. Our offense is what troubles me. Correa has what, two hits? And they were both grounders. He needs to get going and quick. Even in our wins, we only had one inning where we score more than a run at a time. At least it's good to see Buck looking like his old self. If he can stay on the field he may swipe 20 bags this year :)

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Sands off to great start. Seems to have good command of at least 3 of his offerings…if not 4. His approach seems starter-like. Mixes 3 or 4 offerings right from the start. For instance, threw an 80 mph curve for a strike taken to get ahead today. “Average-ish” stuff really plays up when you consistently throw multiple offerings where you want to throw them.

“Command” is a pretty effective tool on the mound!……..right up there with deception. Sands seems to be getting better & better.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

My concern is how they get the 1 big inning, and nothing else. Glad to see Miranda getting the bomb, I hope it's just the start for him.

This. I’m glad they strung together hits to generate 6 runs (also thanks to horrendous defense from Houston) but it would be nice to do that more than 1 inning. 

[madtowntwin]

If Varland can consistently harness that curveball used to end his inning with a strikeout he could evolve to next level....