Overreacting to the Minnesota Twins Getting Swept in Games 1-3 of 2025

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins opened up the 2025 major-league season by losing their first three games to the St. Louis Cardinals. What storylines from the uninspiring start are worth overreacting to? (And don't say none of them.)

Image courtesy of © Tim Vizer-Imagn Images

Tremendous Trio Falter
The top of the Twins' rotation, arguably one of the best in the league, managed to go just 12 ⅔ total innings this weekend, forcing the bullpen to cover the remaining 11 ⅓ (more on those innings later). I wrote last week that the Twins need their top three starters to average six or more innings per start to be World Series contenders; they averaged less than five frames over the opening weekend. Pablo López looked very hittable, allowing eight baserunners and four runs in just five innings. Joe Ryan had a productive start, but it was cut short after just 81 pitches. Bailey Ober’s first start of the season was reminiscent of his first start of last season. For what it's worth, it was later shared that he was dealing with an illness.

Regardless, the Twins cannot afford to have a string of starts like this from the top of their rotation very often this year. Not only is the bullpen already well used ahead of games on each of the next four days, but they weren't able to bail their starters out and get the team any wins. If you thought the Twins were capable of winning 85 games (52.5% win percentage), they're now looking at 83 wins, which probably won’t be enough to make the playoffs. They need to play at an 87-win pace for the remainder of the season to make up the difference.

Offensive Woes
Is it still 2024? The Twins scored six runs all series. They have the second-lowest batting average in baseball, the fourth-lowest walk rate, and the second-lowest WAR. They accrued -0.3 fWAR, edging out only the Colorado Rockies. They had only 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and mustered just two doubles (.167 BA), scoring two runs. Moreover, like the rotation, the top three names on the lineup card couldn't set the table for the rest of the lineup. The combination of Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton went 2-for-34 (.058) this weekend, with 9 strikeouts, 3 walks, and a single run batted in.

In one sense, it's not surprising to see more of the same from last season. Aside from Harrison Bader and Ty France, the Twins are bringing back the same frustrating group of hitters who slouched home at the end of 2024. Rather than players developing, we saw Eduaord Julien only get an at-bat in garbage time of Sunday’s game and Jose Miranda batting 8th, including two spots below Mickey Gasper in Saturday’s game. If that doesn't tell you how Twins manager Rocco Baldelli currently views those two, then I don't know what else would. This comes after Austin Martin, who had 233 at-bats last season, couldn't make the team out of spring training after being called a “[future] defensive star” in the outfield. The combination of the top of the lineup being less productive than the top of the rotation, a Royce Lewis injury, and players looking like their 2024 selves made for a familiar, maddening mess. The biggest concern from last season immediately reared its ugly head in 2025, making it hard to be optimistic moving forward.

Bullpen Blow-Ups
How many times did we hear the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball? That very group gave up six earned runs and walked more batters than they struck out. Like the rotation and lineup, the top end of the bullpen didn't come through for the Twins when they needed it. Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax allowed five baserunners and two earned runs in their one combined inning. Meanwhile, Jorge Alcalá didn't register an out. He allowed three runners to reach base and three earned runs, after Louis Varland inherited those runners and allowed them to score. Naturally, the Twins designated Randy Dobnak for assignment on Sunday, after the long man pitched more innings and better than two of the three starters. This all leads to an unexpectedly discombobulated bullpen that now needs to cover four straight games. Even against the White Sox, it's hard to expect more than 10 total innings for Chis Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson in the first two contests of this week, so that relief corps is facing an immediate test.

Of everything that happened this weekend, this is probably the most disappointing. While the starters were far from meeting expectations, López’s and Ober’s starts weren't overly surprising. We know that the offense can be streaky, and that group had the most uncertainty coming into the season. It was the bullpen that was supposed to be lights-out, but they were far from that in this series. Most concerning is Durán, who's coming off a down 2024 season and looking to re-establish himself as one of the league's top relievers. Reliever production is naturally very volatile and can come crashing down at any point. More than anything else, the Twins cannot survive regression from this sector of the team.

Baldelli’s Baffling Decisions
Let me start by saying that I am in no way, shape, or form a Baldelli basher. He's not perfect, but I think he's done a very good job with the rosters he’s been given over the years. I think that him pulling pitchers too early is a figment of your imagination, basically, and I generally agree with the way he manages the game on both sides of the ball. That said, I don't love how he handled some things this weekend. Bader was the team’s best player on Opening Day, and he gets benched for game two—just so Mickey Gasper can get at-bats? Then, Gasper (who had yet to have a big-league hit) proceeded to bat sixth in the batting order, ahead of Willi Castro and Miranda.

With a righty on the mound, Baldelli was worried about match-ups. Sometimes, however, I think talent has to outweigh the perceived match-up edge. There may be an argument that Miranda and Gasper are interchangeable, but Gasper over Castro seems egregious. In the same game, he then cut off a cruising Ryan after just 81 pitches and set to face the bottom third of the Cardinals lineup. I get that it was his first start. I get that he ended last season on the injured list. I still don't get why those things would not allow him to approach 90 pitches after five low-stress innings, especially considering the part of the lineup he was set to face.

Lastly, Baldelli is known for maintenance plans and being cautious with players. Yet, he elected to put Ober on the mound, despite him being well under 100%? Make it make sense.

Bluntly put, this weekend was a disaster. To me, that's not overreacting. That's a fact. However, it would be too much to project onto the next 159 games because the first three were atrocious. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. It can't be lost in the first half mile. Whatever you thought of this team ahead of Thursday’s opener should be the same today, give or take.

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[Patzky]

Atlanta is 0-4.. things could be worse and may well be. Last to first World Series with the Twins and Braves gives hope if you really want to reach...

[Karbo]

The 1st series was a total system failure. Next up is the White Sox. Time to get well. If the 1st series is an example of the future, Rocco's seat will start getting very warm I would think. Plenty of time to turn things around, and no time like the present to start looking like the team that's capable of winning the division.

[USAFChief]

I don't understand the pathological need to defend Baldelli at all costs. Not just this writer, it's like a badge of honor for some here. 

You feel the need to spend an entire paragraph telling all the world you're not one of the Neanderthal luddites who think managers matter...And then identify several clear managerial issues. While missing larger managerial issues, BTW. 

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

My one major decision issue I had this weekend was Ober. I  thought he was left out there at least an inning too long.  He was struggling right from the start.  Tack on the knowledge that he was sick makes it look even worse.

Slow starts seem to be common place in Minnesota.  Correa, Wallner, Buxton...

I am less concerned with the pitching, if the lack of offense continues, it is going to get very miserable around here very quickly.

[Parfigliano]

Another attempted defence of Baldelli's lackluster managerial choices.  He needed to go last year.

[rdehring]

You failed to mention one more decision Baldelli made that just might have cost the team a win on Saturday.  After Alcala was hit with a line drive, he stayed in the game and promptly gave up, what was it three runs?  He clearly wasn't the same pitcher he was when facing the first hitter of the inning.  Of course any pitcher is going to say he is ok and wants to stay in the game.  But the Manager has to make the hard decision to get him out of the game.  And then to leave him in for another three batters made the situation worse.

As for starting Ober, he had two pitchers available, who will pitch today and tomorrow, who were coming out of spring training with lots of rest.  Easy decision to go with either, but then he might have to redo his pitching schedule he has in ink for the entire season.

[Whitey333]

I'm not a fan of Baldelli and never have been.  He made many blunders this weekend as noted by others.  He should have been canned after last years debacle.  His team was listless this past weekend very similar to the way they played the season out last year.  Of all the clichés that baseball has I can't stand the it's a marathon not a sprint one.  This is a losing teams lament when confronted by poor play.  I do believe those 3 games still count in the loss column.  As does the 3 for 20 in the runners in scoring position, as the team only led once all weekend, as they were out scored 19-6 for the series.  I would imagine the Twins will sweep the lowly Whit Sox and then will tell us how great they are.

[thelanges5]

Cleveland faced the same decision with Bibee on Thursday and made the correct call. Move a starter up and pitch him when he feels better.

[Five minute major]

This team is not going anywhere with Rocco at the helm.   I honestly do not understand how anybody can defend him.  

[Taildragger8791]

38 minutes ago, rdehring said:

You failed to mention one more decision Baldelli made that just might have cost the team a win on Saturday.  After Alcala was hit with a line drive, he stayed in the game and promptly gave up, what was it three runs?  He clearly wasn't the same pitcher he was when facing the first hitter of the inning.  Of course any pitcher is going to say he is ok and wants to stay in the game.  But the Manager has to make the hard decision to get him out of the game.  And then to leave him in for another three batters made the situation worse.

It's fine man, it was just a direct shot to his throwing shoulder. How much could that really affect a pitcher anyways?

[Guest]

New strategy in 2025:  do the season-collapse thing in March-April instead of waiting until September....  

[Rhyno006]

8 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

New strategy in 2025:  do the season-collapse thing in March-April instead of waiting until September....  

Can't come back from the dead if you don't die first! 

[Rhyno006]

Well that was not fun at all this weekend. Five runs in three games... Top to bottom most everyone looked pretty rough. Hitting better come around ASAP or this could get ugly fast. Even the bullpen didn't look all that great. 

I don't see Baldelli getting canned any time soon. With the team on the market for sale (supposedly still? but who TF knows) I don't see him being let go before season's end unless new ownership takes control before then. 

[Parfigliano]

33 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I'm not a fan of Baldelli and never have been.  He made many blunders this weekend as noted by others.  He should have been canned after last years debacle.  His team was listless this past weekend very similar to the way they played the season out last year.  Of all the clichés that baseball has I can't stand the it's a marathon not a sprint one.  This is a losing teams lament when confronted by poor play.  I do believe those 3 games still count in the loss column.  As does the 3 for 20 in the runners in scoring position, as the team only led once all weekend, as they were out scored 19-6 for the series.  I would imagine the Twins will sweep the lowly Whit Sox and then will tell us how great they are.

I don't think they will sweep the Chisox

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, rdehring said:

You failed to mention one more decision Baldelli made that just might have cost the team a win on Saturday.  After Alcala was hit with a line drive, he stayed in the game and promptly gave up, what was it three runs?  He clearly wasn't the same pitcher he was when facing the first hitter of the inning.  Of course any pitcher is going to say he is ok and wants to stay in the game.  But the Manager has to make the hard decision to get him out of the game.  And then to leave him in for another three batters made the situation worse.

As for starting Ober, he had two pitchers available, who will pitch today and tomorrow, who were coming out of spring training with lots of rest.  Easy decision to go with either, but then he might have to redo his pitching schedule he has in ink for the entire season.

Baldelli didn't do well to help his team win in the first series. I've generally defended him over the last few seasons because a) I thought he was doing a decent enough job, and 2) I think we overrate the impact of managers in baseball most of the time. But not great work from him this time.

I get that there wasn't anyone already warming in the bullpen when Alcala took a shot like that, but they could have had someone start stretching immediately upon going out to check on Alcala and if you pull the pitcher because of an injury last time I checked the new guy gets extra time/pitches to warm up, even if they do have to do it on the mound in front of god and country. Considering how Alcala has imploded in the past, that would have been a good time to play it safe with him rather than hope his adrenaline would carry him through. I think it's fair to assign some measure of blame for running Ober out there coming off illness too. You'd think if Ober was barfing on the off-day you'd let Paddack know "hey you might need to be next man up"?

the Bader usage is complicated for me: I don't want to see Bader out in LF that much when RHP are on the mound, so I was unhappy with the opening day lineup. Then Bader does great? but much more likely to see him do what he did on sunday: play good defense and add nothing at the plate. Knowing that Julien was also ill this weekend makes me less unhappy that he basically sat all weekend, but I'm already worried that Bader will get overexposed this season.

I'm most concerned about the offense. It really didn't look good out there, with our best hitters doing very little. And it's not just an issue with approach "too much swinging for the fences, too many Ks, etc" that we frequently hear from people around here. Sure, they struck out 11 times in Game 1, but at least they had 8 hits that game; the 8 total hits in Games 2 & 3 were pretty terrible. game 1 at least they had some great defensively plays made against them; Games 2 & 3 things were much more routine. the offense looks rough right now from everyone except Willi Castro & Trevor Larnach (who may have been 0-4 on sunday, but has been doing fine so far).

I'm not too worried about the starting pitching yet; Pablo was a little unlucky (the "balk" was questionable and there were some real bleeders) and his stuff looked ok. Ryan looked pretty good and seems back, and I'll give Ober a pass since he was sick.

The offense needs to start showing up. If they start hitting thing improve a lot. If they start the season in a swoon, then it's going to get ugly.

[HelmetTip]

My overreaction is that the team looked precisely like it did in August-September of 2024. 

And to me that's a reflection on Baldelli. There's a lot of talent on this team & he seems unable to tap into it. To get spanked like that three times straight is inexcusable with the staff we have & the (potential) hitters we have. 

If Baldelli is still here in September we're looking down the barrel of a 75 win season at best. 

[UK Twin]

Cardinals were excellent at all parts of the game over the 3 games it has to be said and deserved the sweep. 

That being said, Twins didn't help themselves. Ober pitching while still recovering from a virus was always going to end badly. Dobnak should have had the spot start there.

Twins didn't strike out that much but too many ground balls which resulted in groundouts and momentum killing DP's. Need more line drives.

[djm24]

Have faith people. News flash! The almighty Twins FO has just called up a "fresh arm" from St. Paul to add to the bullpen. So, reinforcements are on the way!. Darren McCaughan, signed last season when the FO was doing their annual dumpster diving, replaces Randy Dobnak, who was kicked off the team.

So, things are looking up after that dismal three-game circus. Hang in there! WS here we come! (I better start saving for my WS box seat ticket!  🥴)

 

[ziggy]

I'm not a numbers cruncher, so I cheated and looked at ESPN's fantacy draft rankings.

The only Twins hitters drafted in more than 50% of leagues are Correa, Castro (position versatility) and that's all. (10 team league)

How this is perceived  as a stacked lineup is beyond me but I think we as fans have a skewed view. We overvalue the team prospects as well as big league players.

It was a bad start to the season made worse because the players looked uninspired and coasting on the field, just like the last half of last year.

[djm24]

Correction,: McCaughan, the "ace" reliever, was signed during the OFFseason, not "last season", as I originally posted. My mistake.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand the pathological need to defend Baldelli at all costs. Not just this writer, it's like a badge of honor for some here. 

You feel the need to spend an entire paragraph telling all the world you're not one of the Neanderthal luddites who think managers matter...And then identify several clear managerial issues. While missing larger managerial issues, BTW. 

 

 

His points of criticism of Baldelli are weak! The players play & they sucked!!! It doesn’t matter where Gasper or Castro bat in the bottom 40% of the line-up if the Top 3 in the line-up go 2-34………period. Can’t manage around that type of non-production.

Ever heard of beware of the sick guy - obviously, Ober represented his condition as “OK to go”. He had poor command. It happens occasionally.

The difference between 81 pitches for Ryan coming off an arm injury not being close enough to an “expected 90 pitches” is nuts!! If he threw 5-6 more pitches it would have been better usage of Ryan? ….. come on. If he started the 6th inning and gave up a double everyone would bitch that he should have been pulled since he’s coming off an injury……..OR, doesn’t Baldelli know enough to “start a reliever with a fresh inning,” instead of bringing him into a jam.

Julien was sick Wednesday - Friday. Reported Saturday and lumped in with Ober’s illness. He was out Thursday and used late off the bench Saturday - what’s the issue? Don’t play Ober - play Julien………….maybe, maybe the Mgr. spoke to the guys and trainers and made informed decisions, maybe?

Bullpen …….. Alcala - Jax - Duran weren’t effective ……… it’s not the Manager throwing late innings. The SCARE written about here regarding the starters innings in their first starts and the likelihood that the Pen will be gassed if it keeps up…….that’s about as Chicken Little as it gets.  The Pen is at the start of the year and had a day off on Friday. Dobnack stepped up and the bullpen is fine and will be fine. They have 12-13 arms to use that have pitched for them at MLB level previously…….not concerned. Ignore 2 2/3 inning starts - no, that’s never good! It happens.

Funderburk - Stewart - Blewett - Tonkin - Dobnack - ……… guy brought up today, Mcaughan?? as well. Pen’s stamina should be fine with average health. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, ziggy said:

I'm not a numbers cruncher, so I cheated and looked at ESPN's fantacy draft rankings.

The only Twins hitters drafted in more than 50% of leagues are Correa, Castro (position versatility) and that's all. (10 team league)

How this is perceived  as a stacked lineup is beyond me but I think we as fans have a skewed view. We overvalue the team prospects as well as big league players.

It was a bad start to the season made worse because the players looked uninspired and coasting on the field, just like the last half of last year.

“Stacked” is a Huge stretch - agreed.

To me, Wallner is a great #6 hitter. Julien being effective would help! Can’t have Top 3 go 2-34 and expect to compete.

They needed to trade some pitching for a bat in the offseason (proven bat!) …… Duran & Morris (or like) for a hitter! They are at the mercy of Buxton’s hot/cold play ……. same with Wallner. Correa can’t go 0-series!

I think the OF will hit eventually - 3 games in and 159 to get better results. 7-13 last year to start and 17 games over .500 by August 16th. Things will change & hopefully for the better.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand the pathological need to defend Baldelli at all costs. Not just this writer, it's like a badge of honor for some here. 

You feel the need to spend an entire paragraph telling all the world you're not one of the Neanderthal luddites who think managers matter...And then identify several clear managerial issues. While missing larger managerial issues, BTW. 

 

 

Well there are plenty of people on this site that would write a flaming dissertation about how vile the manager is if he was caught jaywalking. 

Because of this, Baldelli criticisms are not typically taken seriously by the general population because the Neanderthal luddites DO undercut any legit critique by the rest of us posters who will take a more objective view on the matter. So yeah, to be taken seriously and not lumped in with the knee-jerk pitchfork crowd, the rest of us are forced to couch any negativity with, 'I'm not one of them, but Baldelli was wrong to do X and Y yesterday'.

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, ziggy said:

I'm not a numbers cruncher, so I cheated and looked at ESPN's fantacy draft rankings.

The only Twins hitters drafted in more than 50% of leagues are Correa, Castro (position versatility) and that's all. (10 team league)

How this is perceived  as a stacked lineup is beyond me but I think we as fans have a skewed view. We overvalue the team prospects as well as big league players.

It was a bad start to the season made worse because the players looked uninspired and coasting on the field, just like the last half of last year.

“Stacked” is a Huge stretch - agreed.

To me, Wallner is a great #6 hitter. Julien being effective would help! Can’t have Top 3 go 2-34 and expect to compete.

They needed to trade some pitching for a bat in the offseason (proven bat!) …… Duran & Morris (or like) for a hitter! They are at the mercy of Buxton’s hot/cold play ……. same with Wallner. Correa can’t go 0-series!

I think the OF will hit eventually - 3 games in and 159 to get better results. 7-13 last year to start and 17 games over .500 by August 16th. Things will change & hopefully for the better.

[Twinsoholic]

Anyone can take criticisms of Baldelli with a grain of salt. To each her own. The managerial malfeasance is, to my spectacles, very apparent. Mostly, Baldelli’s miscues remind me of the mania of Tom Kelly running Brent Gates out onto the field day in and day out one season while somehow expecting a miracle, i.e., different results. I see a foolish consistency  often in Rocco’s approach. He is the manager, however, and I am just a Twins fan of 50+ years. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't think it's over-reacting, but not for the largely valid points listed above that I agree with. 

The fan base has become increasingly disinterested in this team and it has for several years now. And this team has gotten off to slow starts for several years now. Playing winning baseball from Day 1 should have been imperative if only to put eyes on the product. They failed again; this team is never ready to compete when the season starts like the other clubs are despite the team absolutely needing to generate excitement in this first series.

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well there are plenty of people on this site that would write a flaming dissertation about how vile the manager is if he was caught jaywalking. 

Because of this, Baldelli criticisms are not typically taken seriously by the general population because the Neanderthal luddites DO undercut any legit critique by the rest of us posters who will take a more objective view on the matter. So yeah, to be taken seriously and not lumped in with the knee-jerk pitchfork crowd, the rest of us are forced to couch any negativity with, 'I'm not one of them, but Baldelli was wrong to do X and Y yesterday'.

Wallner 1 hit - Correa 0-series - Buxton 1 hit …… that’s the Problem!

France 1 hit - Miranda 2 hits - Jeffers 1 hit - Vazquez 0 hits ……… that’s the problem!

Crafty/command pitcher was sick but said he “was OK to go” …… looked terrible.

I can criticize the Manager if he’s creating problems with his approach to strategy …… players gotta play well to win.

Duran - Jax - Alcala all underperformed and nobody expects that to be the norm - Rocco’s not pitching nor hitting.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

Wallner 1 hit - Correa 0-series - Buxton 1 hit …… that’s the Problem!

France 1 hit - Miranda 2 hits - Jeffers 1 hit - Vazquez 0 hits ……… that’s the problem!

Crafty/command pitcher was sick but said he “was OK to go” …… looked terrible.

I can criticize the Manager if he’s creating problems with his approach to strategy …… players gotta play well to win.

Duran - Jax - Alcala all underperformed and nobody expects that to be the norm - Rocco’s not pitching nor hitting.

I think Baldelli should have been fired long ago. I don't think he's a good manager in the slightest.

My point is, the posters that demand everything said about the manager be a scathing take down, make the rest of us who have rational takes look crazy too.

[Hubie29]

1 hour ago, HelmetTip said:

There's a lot of talent on this team

I keep seeing this post time and time again. Even during spring training. When are people going to realize that this team just doesn't have talent and they are what they are? Mediocre at best. Throw in Baldelli as the the decision maker and you fall below mediocre. It is a team with no fire and less belief. They might have spurts that gets everyone thinking they finally figured it out. But then they come back to reality. A .500 season is hopeful.