Minnesota Twins' Surplus of Arms: Smart Depth Play or Missed Trade Opportunity?

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I'd put SWR in the probable, experienced slot.  

I'd bet money he won't make it as an MLB starter.

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

I'd bet money he won't make it as an MLB starter.

Money?  That's so 20th century.  The cool kids are playing with crypto.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Money?  That's so 20th century.  The cool kids are playing with crypto.

I don't have any crypto to bet, though honestly, I don't see crypto as a whole lot different than stocks or baseball cards for that matter.

Stock - Bill Gates buys another 100,000 shares of Microsoft at $100/share. $10,000,000. How much of that goes to Microsoft? $0.

Baseball cards - Bill Gates buys all the pre-owned Topps Twins player baseball cards in existence. $1,000,000. How much of that goes to Topps? $0. How much goes to the Twins? $0. How much goes to Byron Buxton? $0. 

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm all for trading away players that we should trade. But I don't think we're quite there yet with our pitching depth to trade from. Last offseason, we were a little short on depth, which resulted in injuries to Paddack & Ryan & the rest of the rotation running out of gas, especially the rookies. This season I don't believe we have a surplus of MLB arms. We have Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR & Paddack plus a slew of AAA SP that can be rotated in & out to help manage the rotation. I wouldn't mind trading away the last year of Paddack if we need to meet budget. But that's it.

If we focus on pitching & defense, especially up the middle, our offense is more than capable when properly managed. Last offseason the Twins wanted offensive bats MAT & Rhys Hoskins. We dodge the bullet on both because we didn't have the money to afford them. But we didn't dodge the bullet from the Dodgers by the means of Margot. IMO big bats, especially lately, are a gamble unless you have the money for Soto. I'm a big believer in our offense & they will produce if managed properly & able to keep the glue together. We might need to trade from our surplus of offense before we need to trade from our pitching.

Speaking about defense up the middle. Catching has been our biggest need. They bought an expensive band-aid in Vazquez to keep us from bleeding to death, But sooner or later we'll have to rip off that bandage. We still have that gaping wound, w/o Vazquez, we have Jeffers, who can only manage a weak side tandem. Camargo & Cartaya, who haven't shown yet that they are MLB 3rd string catchers. We have 5 catchers on the 40-man but only 2 are serviceable. Jeffers's contract is about to expire, & it'll be ridiculous to sign Jeffers to an outlandish extension. We have to have a MLB 3rd catcher who can be our future catcher (Jeffers is not him) & time to groom him, a good option so we don't have to extend Jeffers. Cartaya can become a MLB catcher, but he's not now & we don't know when or how far he can advance. I would not trade pitching for offense, but I would for a promising young MLB-ready catcher, if I had to. 

Do you just make up stuff? How does lack of starting pitching depth lead to injuries to Ryan and Paddack? Let's hear this mumbo jumbo. Ryan had shown no obvious signs and Paddack was a year and a half removed from TJ. Were they mismanaged? And you keep wanting to trade Jeffers.  OK genius. Who catches in 26 with Jeffers traded and Vasquez contract is over? You also stated that you don't believe there is depth. You mentioned Lopez Ober Ryan SWR Paddack and a "slew" of AAA arms that can be rotated in and out to help manage the rotation.  Isn't that the definition of depth? But then you wouldn't mind moving Paddack if it'll help them meet the budget. So there is depth, or no?

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd bet money he won't make it as an MLB starter.

You lost. Woods Richardson already made it as an MLB starting pitcher. This is indisputable. 

You can argue that you don't believe SWR can repeat his success from 2024 or that he will fade away, which is fair. You have stated he is only a back end rotation at best. That is a little silly because the Twins use him as a #5 starting pitcher, which is the definition of back end of the rotation. He is what he is and he needs to prove himself again and again. We had this exact conversation about Bailey Ober. He too needs to prove himself again and again. This is the plight of a starting pitching on a yearly contract.

The Twins have a decent number of good pitchers but it is always useful to remind oneself that TINSTATMP.

Trades. I have my ideas and thoughts as well and expect something next offseason, but then again I expected some trades last and this offseason too.

My one thought when I hear of trading for a big bat, either hand, is that I want to hear specific names and read a cogent explanation of how that benefits the team giving up the bat; good for both teams.

This offseason I occasionally glanced at the suggestions on Baseball Trade Values site to look for realistic trades. My quick judgment is that 19 out of 20 or lower were totally off the mark. Trading all of your soon to be cut or DFA players for a starter, trading for Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, etc., or sending one or more high priced players to teams with zero ability to carry those contracts were among just a few of the egregious errors in trade suggestions. I do think it is mildly interesting. 

[Fatbat]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd bet money he won't make it as an MLB starter.

How long does he have to be in MLB to make it as a starter? How much $?

[JADBP]

The Twins made the worst roster decision last year in signing Margot.  Seems like they are trying to repeat that mistake this year.  Bader and France are far from the answer.  SO, shame on the FO for these signings...but the real insanity was pushing players out there night after night when they keep repeating the same inability to hit.  Of course, Margot is a ridiculous example, but also Julien, Lewis and most of the team in the last 60 days.  I am unsure how Rocco kept his job.

But, then the Twins did make an off-season move, and it was a huge one!  One that will start making a difference immediately.  It fixes a really bad mistake made 4 years ago...when they chose to go with Popkins over Matt Borgshulte as hitting coach.  I don't know how they made that decision because Matt was doing a bang up job as hitting coach--working his way up the ladder to AAA hitting coach.  Then they chose Popkins--who had just one year of as a coach for the A-ball Great Lakes Loons.  Oh yay!

BTW, Popkins is now the batting coach with the Blue Jays, where he says he wants the players to pick their spots and then swing for the fences.  How did that approach work with the Twins?  Geez, which did more damage for the team, Popkins or Margot?  That's a hard one....

[bean5302]

SWR making it as a starter in MLB is the same as saying Tyler Duffey made it as a starter in MLB.

Lots of fans for a guy with poor conditioning, a 4.55 xFIP/4.51 SIERA, a 20% K rate, fly ball pitcher with below average stuff around here. Not that I didn't know any prediction of SWR washing out as a starter in MLB wouldn't rub a lot of fans the wrong way when they've already penciled SWR in as a mid rotation career starter because he got lucky for a few starts out of the gate last year.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Why would anybody trade for Tonkin?

I didn't say he would bring much in return, but back of the roster players get traded ALL THE TIME.

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm all for trading away players that we should trade. But I don't think we're quite there yet with our pitching depth to trade from. Last offseason, we were a little short on depth, which resulted in injuries to Paddack & Ryan & the rest of the rotation running out of gas, especially the rookies. This season I don't believe we have a surplus of MLB arms. We have Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR & Paddack plus a slew of AAA SP that can be rotated in & out to help manage the rotation. I wouldn't mind trading away the last year of Paddack if we need to meet budget. But that's it.

If we focus on pitching & defense, especially up the middle, our offense is more than capable when properly managed. Last offseason the Twins wanted offensive bats MAT & Rhys Hoskins. We dodge the bullet on both because we didn't have the money to afford them. But we didn't dodge the bullet from the Dodgers by the means of Margot. IMO big bats, especially lately, are a gamble unless you have the money for Soto. I'm a big believer in our offense & they will produce if managed properly & able to keep the glue together. We might need to trade from our surplus of offense before we need to trade from our pitching.

Speaking about defense up the middle. Catching has been our biggest need. They bought an expensive band-aid in Vazquez to keep us from bleeding to death, But sooner or later we'll have to rip off that bandage. We still have that gaping wound, w/o Vazquez, we have Jeffers, who can only manage a weak side tandem. Camargo & Cartaya, who haven't shown yet that they are MLB 3rd string catchers. We have 5 catchers on the 40-man but only 2 are serviceable. Jeffers's contract is about to expire, & it'll be ridiculous to sign Jeffers to an outlandish extension. We have to have a MLB 3rd catcher who can be our future catcher (Jeffers is not him) & time to groom him, a good option so we don't have to extend Jeffers. Cartaya can become a MLB catcher, but he's not now & we don't know when or how far he can advance. I would not trade pitching for offense, but I would for a promising young MLB-ready catcher, if I had to. 

I agree on the statement "I would not trade pitching for offense, but I would for a promising young MLB ready Catcher."

The one I would have dangled in Nov/Dec would have been Jhoan Duran for this catcher. Not from our SP's. Not yet. But I noticed a post from chepettit, this coming off season I also see one of Ryan or Ober being traded. This will be the time to do so if the prospects keep progressing. Ober I think especially will bring back a very significant haul. Both of these will be down to two years of control, three with the QO.  We will then have the depth to deal from. Hopefully anyway.

I do think Paddack does get dealt before the deadline. If he shows he's healthy and decent he might even bring back a useful piece. If he breaks down that is just the life of baseball.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Ultimately some of those "surplus arms" will make it to the big leagues and be successful.  Some will not, but right now, all of them still have value.  The best case scenario would be to trade the couple that we think might not make it (but other teams do) while they still have value and keep the ones that develop well.  That's really hard to do, in fact I would argue it's a little bit of guesswork, but those are the kinds of trades that make a team better and the GM into a genius.  Guess wrong and you're an idiot!

I'm with @chpettit19 on them making a larger trade of one of their big three at the end of this year, assuming some younger arms develop.  Having all three of those contracts leaving at the same time when they expire would be really messy at best and possibly disastrous at worst.  I like all three and would weep a little, but they really need to do it. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

SWR making it as a starter in MLB is the same as saying Tyler Duffey made it as a starter in MLB.

Lots of fans for a guy with poor conditioning, a 4.55 xFIP/4.51 SIERA, a 20% K rate, fly ball pitcher with below average stuff around here. Not that I didn't know any prediction of SWR washing out as a starter in MLB wouldn't rub a lot of fans the wrong way when they've already penciled SWR in as a mid rotation career starter because he got lucky for a few starts out of the gate last year.

I would include SWR in a trade without even thinking about it. Not suggesting giving him away of course. Sure, he's an OK back of the rotation guy. But when a guy doesn't get you through 5 on a regular basis isn't good. His 4.1 IP per start last season was a significant contributor to the Pen falling apart as the season progressed. I hope Festa shows he's the guy as the spring goes on and has that spot in the rotation.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Do you just make up stuff? How does lack of starting pitching depth lead to injuries to Ryan and Paddack? Let's hear this mumbo jumbo. Ryan had shown no obvious signs and Paddack was a year and a half removed from TJ. Were they mismanaged? And you keep wanting to trade Jeffers.  OK genius. Who catches in 26 with Jeffers traded and Vasquez contract is over? You also stated that you don't believe there is depth. You mentioned Lopez Ober Ryan SWR Paddack and a "slew" of AAA arms that can be rotated in and out to help manage the rotation.  Isn't that the definition of depth? But then you wouldn't mind moving Paddack if it'll help them meet the budget. So there is depth, or no?

It's called common sense, 

If you actually read my post w/o freaking out. I stated that in '24 we could use more depth but in '25 we are fine.

Before you accuse me of making things up, I ask you to actually read & try to understand what I write. I've stated in this post & for years that we desperately need to acquire a promising young MLB-ready future starting catcher to groom. To avoid this predicament of having nobody to be able to be the primary catcher, so Twins have no choice but to extend Jeffers to an exorbitant extension because he's a Boras client. I'm guessing they'll probably ask for $20M but settle closer to $15M, because FO has hyped him up as a primary catcher. Many say Jeffers is inconsistent but I say he's very consistent, When he's in a supportive or weak-side tandem he's very good, look at '20 & '23 stats. When asked to split equal catching duties, he starts out very good, but as the season wanes so does he offensively & more so defensively & leaves much to be desired, look at '21 & '24 stats. When asked to do primary catching duties, he crashes, burns & lands on the IL, look at '22. I put his stats below.

Once a crazy idea they get in their mind, they stick to it no matter how bad things get. So they'll stick with Jeffers. I predict that if they don't trade Vazquez this season & he'll still maintain somewhat the same results as '24. If they trade Vazquez, Jeffers will be asked to do primary catching duties & expect a worse outcome than '22 otherwise we can look forward to '26 when Vazquez leaves. They'll scramble to try to salvage a disaster but they are terrible at it. My strong opposition to this FO is a cry for hope that this core of Correa, Buxton, Lopez & Lewis & future core to be relevant. They can't do that with a poor catching corp. And a reason to follow the Twins, which I find hard to do.

Season	Team	Level	Age	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2020	MIN	MLB	23	26	62	3	5	7	0	8.1%	30.6%	.164	.364	.273	.355	.436	.346	.349	122	-0.5	1.2	0.7	0.4
2021	MIN	MLB	24	85	293	14	28	35	0	7.5%	36.9%	.202	.269	.199	.270	.401	.289	.299	83	-1.3	-7.3	9.5	1.2
2022	MIN	MLB	25	67	236	7	25	27	0	9.7%	26.3%	.156	.259	.208	.285	.363	.287	.315	86	0.0	-3.6	3.5	0.8
2023	MIN	MLB	26	96	335	14	46	43	3	9.9%	27.8%	.213	.359	.276	.369	.490	.369	.333	137	-2.0	12.9	-1.2	2.3
2024	MIN	MLB	27	122	465	21	56	64	3	6.9%	20.2%	.206	.238	.226	.300	.432	.317	.304	107	-0.8	3.0	-2.5	1.7

[Schmoeman5]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It's called common sense, 

If you actually read my post w/o freaking out. I stated that in '24 we could use more depth but in '25 we are fine.

Before you accuse me of making things up, I ask you to actually read & try to understand what I write. I've stated in this post & for years that we desperately need to acquire a promising young MLB-ready future starting catcher to groom. To avoid this predicament of having nobody to be able to be the primary catcher, so Twins have no choice but to extend Jeffers to an exorbitant extension because he's a Boras client. I'm guessing they'll probably ask for $20M but settle closer to $15M, because FO has hyped him up as a primary catcher. Many say Jeffers is inconsistent but I say he's very consistent, When he's in a supportive or weak-side tandem he's very good, look at '20 & '23 stats. When asked to split equal catching duties, he starts out very good, but as the season wanes so does he offensively & more so defensively & leaves much to be desired, look at '21 & '24 stats. When asked to do primary catching duties, he crashes, burns & lands on the IL, look at '22. I put his stats below.

Once a crazy idea they get in their mind, they stick to it no matter how bad things get. So they'll stick with Jeffers. I predict that if they don't trade Vazquez this season & he'll still maintain somewhat the same results as '24. If they trade Vazquez, Jeffers will be asked to do primary catching duties & expect a worse outcome than '22 otherwise we can look forward to '26 when Vazquez leaves. They'll scramble to try to salvage a disaster but they are terrible at it. My strong opposition to this FO is a cry for hope that this core of Correa, Buxton, Lopez & Lewis & future core to be relevant. They can't do that with a poor catching corp. And a reason to follow the Twins, which I find hard to do.

Season	Team	Level	Age	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2020	MIN	MLB	23	26	62	3	5	7	0	8.1%	30.6%	.164	.364	.273	.355	.436	.346	.349	122	-0.5	1.2	0.7	0.4
2021	MIN	MLB	24	85	293	14	28	35	0	7.5%	36.9%	.202	.269	.199	.270	.401	.289	.299	83	-1.3	-7.3	9.5	1.2
2022	MIN	MLB	25	67	236	7	25	27	0	9.7%	26.3%	.156	.259	.208	.285	.363	.287	.315	86	0.0	-3.6	3.5	0.8
2023	MIN	MLB	26	96	335	14	46	43	3	9.9%	27.8%	.213	.359	.276	.369	.490	.369	.333	137	-2.0	12.9	-1.2	2.3
2024	MIN	MLB	27	122	465	21	56	64	3	6.9%	20.2%	.206	.238	.226	.300	.432	.317	.304	107	-0.8	3.0	-2.5	1.7

Common sense. Yeah that's a real measuring stick. Just because you've been advocating for a move, it hasn't happened.  So how do you proceed moving forward from right now? This is where I agree with @chpettit19 I don't believe Jeffers is worth 10 to 15 million. The Twins may have to trade a starter to get the catcher of the future since there aren't any standouts in their farm system right now.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Common sense. Yeah that's a real measuring stick. Just because you've been advocating for a move, it hasn't happened.  So how do you proceed moving forward from right now? This is where I agree with @chpettit19 I don't believe Jeffers is worth 10 to 15 million. The Twins may have to trade a starter to get the catcher of the future since there aren't any standouts in their farm system right now.

Jeffers asking for 20 or getting paid 15 would be shocking. That's top 3 catcher money. Those numbers are, shockingly, just made up randomness not based on anything real other than the name "Boras" being big and scary. Boras is real good at his job (most of the time), but every team would point at Will Smith making essentially 13 and say "try again, Scott." Danny Jansen's 8 mil deal is probably the realistic mark for Jeffers. Given inflation call it 9 or 10 in 2 years. Assuming Jeffers doesn't go bananas these next 2 years.

Now if/when they deal one of their arms they'll have a very good shot at acquiring a catcher in return if that's what they want to do. I expect Jeffers back for 2026 and a much cheaper Vazquez or Vazquez style catcher to go with him. Perez, Realmuto, Heim, Kirk, Jansen, Jeffers, Rogers, Stallings, Kelly, Diaz, Trevino, Vazquez, Hedges. Plenty of catchers becoming free agents the next 2 years that can be signed for very little or much more. Assuming they don't absolutely nail a catcher pick this year or have Cartaya bounce back to top form, trade is probably their best bet for bringing in a young, top catcher with years of control. And dangling Lopez, Ryan, or Ober could definitely do it next offseason.

[TopGunn#22]

I could certainly see the Twins moving on from Jeffers after this season (it's pretty obvious this is the final season for Vasquez).  Is a complete remake of the catching position PROBABLE?  Hard to say, but how Jeffers does THIS YEAR will go a long way toward determining that.

I don't disagree with Doc Gast that the Twins would be smart to acquire a top shelf, young catcher where there is an All Star catcher blocking them.  Contreras and Quero in Milwaukee.  Will Smith and Rushing with the Dodgers.  Joey Bart and Endy Rodriguez with the Pirates.  Cal Raleigh and whoever that young guy tony&rodney always mentions in Seattle.  

IF and it's an "IF" either Jeffers or Vasquez gets hurt in 2025, it will be very interesting to see how Cartaya and Camargo are doing in St. Paul as well as if either of them does well if given the chance with the Twins.  

[Rosterman]

It's good to have the depth. Most unproven for at least this year. Good chance they increase their value.

Joy is Twins can make decisions on keeping Ober or Ryan longterm, or parting ways with Lopez if season tanks.

[DocBauer]

Not every pitching prospect, even top ones, turn out to be quality ML starters, or even reach MLB. I think we all know and realize that. But the more good arms you have, the better your chances for quality ML SP options as well as bullpen conversions.

That being said, how many years over the past 10-15 would SWR, Festa, AND Matthews ALL be penciled in to the rotation based on stuff, potential, the previous season, as well as NEED. There's been years where they'd be auditioning Morris, Lewis, and some inexpensive Happ or Schoemaker type for the 5th spot.

I was OK moving on from Paddack as part of a deal, or moving on from his $ as part of adding someone in a different deal, and just move on to one of the kids. But I'm also OK with him...and everyone else...being brought back for 2025. What if SWR regresses and has a sophomore slump? (Not saying he will or that I expect it). What if one of the biggest 3 develops a bad quad or lat strain during ST or early in the season? It's nice to have that immediate depth. For now at least.

Festa, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya, and Adams give St Paul 6 talented, young SP options. (I think keeping Adams ends up in a pen role eventually, but TBD). And that's WITH 24yo Jaylin Nowlin moving to the pen, or being sent back to AA after a late season promotion. And it doesn't include Dobnak, or any other the other MILB veterans they've brought in for depth who are probably pen and piggyback options.

AA isn't as strong, but it's going to have MacLeod, Culpepper, Jones, probably Prielipp, and a couple more interesting options moving up from A+ this season.

You CAN'T keep them all. Some turn out, some convert to be good relievers. But pretty soon they're actually going to run out of room and just cut guys, or more to the point, have the luxury and opportunity to trade some arms to fill specific needs.

It's a wonderful problem to have!

Yes, that could include a good young catcher to pair with Jeffers in 2026 or 2027. It could also be a really good slugging 1B. And as of today, and talent on hand or close, those are really the top "open" spots on the roster. But that's a different discussion for a different day.

It's probably the smart thing to do to keep all that depth for.now. All the moreso with new owners coming in that might change the financial landscape for the better. But I can absolutely see a future move at the 2025 trade deadline and/or next offseason. And you don't have to squint hard to see it.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I could certainly see the Twins moving on from Jeffers after this season (it's pretty obvious this is the final season for Vasquez).  Is a complete remake of the catching position PROBABLE?  Hard to say, but how Jeffers does THIS YEAR will go a long way toward determining that.

I don't disagree with Doc Gast that the Twins would be smart to acquire a top shelf, young catcher where there is an All Star catcher blocking them.  Contreras and Quero in Milwaukee.  Will Smith and Rushing with the Dodgers.  Joey Bart and Endy Rodriguez with the Pirates.  Cal Raleigh and whoever that young guy tony&rodney always mentions in Seattle.  

IF and it's an "IF" either Jeffers or Vasquez gets hurt in 2025, it will be very interesting to see how Cartaya and Camargo are doing in St. Paul as well as if either of them does well if given the chance with the Twins.  

"Blocked" prospects is a myth. Rushing is already playing 1B and LF for the Dodgers. Endy has been playing 1B, OF, and 2B for years. The kid in Seattle is Harry Ford and he started playing LF last year, and many scouts question his ability to stay behind the plate regardless of Raleigh. William Contreras is a good enough hitter to DH for Milwaukee.

I'm not saying not to target any of these guys, or that deals can't be made, but there's no such thing as a blocked prospect if the team wants that guy on their roster. It's why it's not shocking or out of the ordinary that the Twins move guys around defensively. No prospect or player is ever locked in to only 1 position. Unless you're the best guy in the league there's always someone who can bump you. Like Correa moving to 3B had his deal with the Mets stuck.

[arby58]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I didn't say he would bring much in return, but back of the roster players get traded ALL THE TIME.

The last three transactions for him have been releases, not trades.

[terrydactyls]

I think the top priority for the Twins is to find a new candidate to buy the team.  The new owners can decide the direction the Twins will head.

[dxpavelka]

"Surplus of Arms"  Said no baseball guy ever.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, JADBP said:

The Twins made the worst roster decision last year in signing Margot.  Seems like they are trying to repeat that mistake this year.  Bader and France are far from the answer.  SO, shame on the FO for these signings...but the real insanity was pushing players out there night after night when they keep repeating the same inability to hit.  Of course, Margot is a ridiculous example, but also Julien, Lewis and most of the team in the last 60 days.  I am unsure how Rocco kept his job.

But, then the Twins did make an off-season move, and it was a huge one!  One that will start making a difference immediately.  It fixes a really bad mistake made 4 years ago...when they chose to go with Popkins over Matt Borgshulte as hitting coach.  I don't know how they made that decision because Matt was doing a bang up job as hitting coach--working his way up the ladder to AAA hitting coach.  Then they chose Popkins--who had just one year of as a coach for the A-ball Great Lakes Loons.  Oh yay!

BTW, Popkins is now the batting coach with the Blue Jays, where he says he wants the players to pick their spots and then swing for the fences.  How did that approach work with the Twins?  Geez, which did more damage for the team, Popkins or Margot?  That's a hard one....

You ASSUME Bader and France are bad signings.  Just like Santana and Solano were.  Unless, of course, they're not.

[joefish]

I think you sold your ideas very well.

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, arby58 said:

The thing about trades is it requires two willing parties where needs align. I think those clamoring for the Twins to 'do something' often disregard this fact.

Very very true. We may be eager to trade away a player or two (or three) but you need to find another team that wants that player enough to make a deal. That's the stark reality. May a spring training injury on another team will have someone calling, but as others have suggested, the summer trade deadline is more likely to see something happen. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Very very true. We may be eager to trade away a player or two (or three) but you need to find another team that wants that player enough to make a deal. That's the stark reality. May a spring training injury on another team will have someone calling, but as others have suggested, the summer trade deadline is more likely to see something happen. 

You are right.  It's spring.  Hope springs eternal.  Nobody thinks they are "a couple of arms the 'might' be able to contribute soon" away.  Nor should the Twins.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Not every pitching prospect, even top ones, turn out to be quality ML starters, or even reach MLB. I think we all know and realize that. But the more good arms you have, the better your chances for quality ML SP options as well as bullpen conversions.

That being said, how many years over the past 10-15 would SWR, Festa, AND Matthews ALL be penciled in to the rotation based on stuff, potential, the previous season, as well as NEED. There's been years where they'd be auditioning Morris, Lewis, and some inexpensive Happ or Schoemaker type for the 5th spot.

I was OK moving on from Paddack as part of a deal, or moving on from his $ as part of adding someone in a different deal, and just move on to one of the kids. But I'm also OK with him...and everyone else...being brought back for 2025. What if SWR regresses and has a sophomore slump? (Not saying he will or that I expect it). What if one of the biggest 3 develops a bad quad or lat strain during ST or early in the season? It's nice to have that immediate depth. For now at least.

Festa, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya, and Adams give St Paul 6 talented, young SP options. (I think keeping Adams ends up in a pen role eventually, but TBD). And that's WITH 24yo Jaylin Nowlin moving to the pen, or being sent back to AA after a late season promotion. And it doesn't include Dobnak, or any other the other MILB veterans they've brought in for depth who are probably pen and piggyback options.

AA isn't as strong, but it's going to have MacLeod, Culpepper, Jones, probably Prielipp, and a couple more interesting options moving up from A+ this season.

You CAN'T keep them all. Some turn out, some convert to be good relievers. But pretty soon they're actually going to run out of room and just cut guys, or more to the point, have the luxury and opportunity to trade some arms to fill specific needs.

It's a wonderful problem to have!

Yes, that could include a good young catcher to pair with Jeffers in 2026 or 2027. It could also be a really good slugging 1B. And as of today, and talent on hand or close, those are really the top "open" spots on the roster. But that's a different discussion for a different day.

It's probably the smart thing to do to keep all that depth for.now. All the moreso with new owners coming in that might change the financial landscape for the better. But I can absolutely see a future move at the 2025 trade deadline and/or next offseason. And you don't have to squint hard to see it.

I would encourage you to add the word "might" to new owners coming and emphasize the MIGHT regarding them changing the financial landscape for the better.  These are unknowns and maybe just dreams until they ain't.

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Jeffers asking for 20 or getting paid 15 would be shocking. That's top 3 catcher money. Those numbers are, shockingly, just made up randomness not based on anything real other than the name "Boras" being big and scary. Boras is real good at his job (most of the time), but every team would point at Will Smith making essentially 13 and say "try again, Scott." Danny Jansen's 8 mil deal is probably the realistic mark for Jeffers. Given inflation call it 9 or 10 in 2 years. Assuming Jeffers doesn't go bananas these next 2 years.

Now if/when they deal one of their arms they'll have a very good shot at acquiring a catcher in return if that's what they want to do. I expect Jeffers back for 2026 and a much cheaper Vazquez or Vazquez style catcher to go with him. Perez, Realmuto, Heim, Kirk, Jansen, Jeffers, Rogers, Stallings, Kelly, Diaz, Trevino, Vazquez, Hedges. Plenty of catchers becoming free agents the next 2 years that can be signed for very little or much more. Assuming they don't absolutely nail a catcher pick this year or have Cartaya bounce back to top form, trade is probably their best bet for bringing in a young, top catcher with years of control. And dangling Lopez, Ryan, or Ober could definitely do it next offseason.

I'm looking at Wilson Contreras (who is also a primarily hitting catcher) 3 offseasons ago & next season will be 4, who is making almost $20M/ season & he's not even catching now. If they dial Jeffers back, he'll have a good season & with inflation, IMO he'll shoot for Conteras's $. Now Contreras is a better defensive, offensive catcher, plus has more stamina than Jeffers but they'll play the stats & sell to the Twins that Jeffers is their primary catcher which the Twins are selling to the fanbase, but will settle for less under this scenario.  If they keep on playing Jeffers the same as last year, then look at what you are suggesting around $10M. If anyone who has Boras as an agent is looking at maxing his return.

Now you mentioned extending Vazquez, I have suggested that they could do that this year, to renegotiate his contract to be a more team-friendly contract for this & next season. IMO Vazquez would be open for that. To adjust to another team & learn another pitching staff is very distracting & unproductive, so he'd rather stay in MN for as long as he can even if it means less money. Right now Boras has all the leverage, if they extend Vazquez that gives the Twins more leverage. I'm all for extending Jeffers for $8M+ (I like Jeffers) with Vazquez in tandem & hopefully Cartaya can progress enough to be spell Jeffers in the 2nd half. I don't know if they can set the house on fire but at least they're a short-term solution for our near future dilemma. 

[Major League Ready]

Paddack and SWR are both suspect IMO or at the very least players that could be upgraded.  Even if we assume we have two guys in Festa and Matthews that will step-up and assume those roles, we are out of depth.  Hopefully, a couple more guys step-up this year but until that happens, I don’t see an excess of depth.

The good news is there are several guys in the pipeline with potential to become solid big league SPs.  If those guys continue to advance, the more likely scenario is the twins follow the Cleveland / Tampa blueprint and trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober with 1-2 remaining years of control.

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm looking at Wilson Contreras (who is also a primarily hitting catcher) 3 offseasons ago & next season will be 4, who is making almost $20M/ season & he's not even catching now. If they dial Jeffers back, he'll have a good season & with inflation, IMO he'll shoot for Conteras's $. Now Contreras is a better defensive, offensive catcher, plus has more stamina than Jeffers but they'll play the stats & sell to the Twins that Jeffers is their primary catcher which the Twins are selling to the fanbase, but will settle for less under this scenario.  If they keep on playing Jeffers the same as last year, then look at what you are suggesting around $10M. If anyone who has Boras as an agent is looking at maxing his return.

Now you mentioned extending Vazquez, I have suggested that they could do that this year, to renegotiate his contract to be a more team-friendly contract for this & next season. IMO Vazquez would be open for that. To adjust to another team & learn another pitching staff is very distracting & unproductive, so he'd rather stay in MN for as long as he can even if it means less money. Right now Boras has all the leverage, if they extend Vazquez that gives the Twins more leverage. I'm all for extending Jeffers for $8M+ (I like Jeffers) with Vazquez in tandem & hopefully Cartaya can progress enough to be spell Jeffers in the 2nd half. I don't know if they can set the house on fire but at least they're a short-term solution for our near future dilemma. 

1. They aren't dialing Jeffers back. 2. If they did and he only catches 60 or 70 games teams would notice that and take it into account. 3. Jeffers is nowhere near the hitter Contreras is. 

Below is Jeffers, Jansen, and Contreras. See if you can pick out which one is Contreras...

A little unfair since Contreras has played more seasons. So here they are in a different order with their 1st through 5th seasons to account for Jeffer's entire career. Can you pick Contreras out of this one?

This one goes through Jansen and Contreras arbitration years. So, their complete body of work when they hit the free agent market. Jeffers obviously having time to make up ground on Contreras in this one. But 14+ WAR in 2 seasons would have him finishing in the top 5 of MVP voting. I'd call that unlikely.

The Twins aren't selling Jeffers as their primary catcher to anyone. He's splitting catcher 50/50. They've even been alternating games in spring. Again, you're just making stuff up to fit your narrative. Scott Boras isn't going to go to the Twins and convince them he's their primary catcher as if they're not aware of how they're using him. And, if you're right, and he craters under a heavier load this year or next the stats really won't be there to match what Contreras is/was doing. Boras isn't a Jedi. He can't make the Twins, or any team, believe something that isn't actually true. Anyone who has Boras is expecting him to get them what they want. Sometimes that's the most money, sometimes that's being in a certain location, it's different for every player. 

I'm not going to get into it again with you on Vazquez having to learn a new pitching staff. That isn't the years long process you make it seem. Every team uses dozens of pitchers every year. Catchers move teams every year. Vazquez learns new pitchers every year. The Twins have no need to extend Vazquez right now. They can sign any defense only catcher for 3-5 mil next year. Saving a little on him this year doesn't help at all.

This isn't a catcher thread. We were talking about catchers in regards to what the Twins could get back for one of their arms. So, let's move on from the catcher talk and get back to talking about the possible surplus of arms the Twins have and whether or not they should trade any of them. A catcher is certainly a reasonable target if they do.