Matt Wallner Leading Off in Spring Training Probably isn’t a Coincidence

[Guest]

Nice try.

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Trying to turn a big lefty masher into a slappy all-fields hitter isn't exactly doing anyone any favors. Twins screwed the pooch with David Ortiz. Tom Kelly screwed the pooch with David Ortiz. 

That's not what you claimed, is it?

You claimed tbe Red Six didnt coach Ortiz to hit for average. 

Except he hit for a higher average over many, many years in Boston. Over .300 multiple times. While still SLG over 100 points higher, BTW.

It's almost like hitting for average is a good thing.

Wallner would benefit from a higher BA. I don't expect it, but it would be a fantastic development. 

 

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That's not what you claimed, is it?

You claimed tbe Red Six didnt coach Ortiz to hit for average. 

Except he hit for a higher average over many, many years in Boston. Over .300 multiple times. While still SLG over 100 points higher, BTW.

It's almost like hitting for average is a good thing.

Wallner would benefit from a higher BA. I don't expect it, but it would be a fantastic development. 

 

Who knew allowing a hitter to hit would turn out with fantastic results? That's all I'm saying.

I can assure you the Red Sox didn't coach Big Papi to hit for a higher average. And the Twins shouldn't try to teach Wallner to hit for higher average. 

There's also the syringe background of it all... 

[Linus]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For everyone's reference, here's the number of PAs each spot in the order got in MLB as a whole in different situations last year (according to Fangraphs splits leaderboards):

Total PAs-PAs with runners on-PAs with runners in scoring position
1- 22350 -7495- 4493
2- 21833 -9129- 4944
3- 21356 -9638- 5431
4- 20838 -10032- 5842
5- 20303 -8820- 5365
6- 19793 -8648- 4848
7- 19254 -8620- 4898
8- 18660 -8391- 4925
9- 18062 -7870- 4755

Everything divided by 30 to get it in more meaningful per team numbers:
1- 745- 250- 150
2- 728- 304- 165
3- 712- 321- 181
4- 695- 334- 195
5- 677- 294- 179
6- 660- 288- 162
7- 642- 287- 163
8- 622- 280- 164
9- 602- 262- 159

Percentage of PAs with runners on-with runners in scoring position:
1- 34%- 20%
2- 42%- 23%
3- 45%- 25%
4- 48%- 28%
5- 43%- 26%
6- 44%- 24%
7- 45%- 25%
8- 45%- 26%
9- 44%- 26%

Make what you will of these numbers. Just wanted to give some info.

Great info.  Thanks

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

For what it's worth, Wallner hit .250 in 2023 and .260 in 2024. Sure, that's not what some fans will demand if their idealized leadoff hitter bats .280+, but there aren't many Twins who will do that. In Max Kepler's 2019 season, he hit leadoff with a .250 average and was largely successful, though there were the same grumbles about hit average. 

Having a .250/.260 hitter in the leadoff spot is also less of a problem when the overall MLB average is only .243. Wallner is actually a bit above average in that regard. Add in his OBP "bonus," and having a .370 OPB in the leadoff slot definitely looks good when the league average is .312.  

[Jocko87]

I've been noodling on lineup construction all week while sitting on the beach and it isn't hard to have Wallner as far down as 6th if he isn't leadoff. Larnach is going to stay in the 3 hole area most likely.

If I put a Julien type in the leadoff, Correa, Larnach, Buxton and Lewis before Wallner makes sense to me.  He is the best hitter they have for facing the pitcher trying to catch his breath after the heart of the order.  He's a game breaker, not a table setter.

I'd almost put Larnach leadoff over him.

[IndianaTwin]

27 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Batting Order? 

Put your hottest hitters at the top or best matchups at the top because they will get more AB's. Put your coldest hitters at the bottom or worse matchups at the bottom of the order because they will get less AB's? 

Space out your left handed hitters and right handers the best you can so the opposing manager doesn't have a clear path to deploy the lefty or righty out of the pen.  

Static lineup orders serve no purpose whatsoever.

If you bat in the 1 spot on Monday and the 7th spot on Tuesday and the 3rd spot on Wednesday. The mental state of the batter will eventually recover from the shock once they start to understand that they have to check the lineup card daily and that they don't get a GUARENTEED batting order position and it is pointless to take anything personally.

If a player can't deal with being moved around in the lineup on a day to day basis. Look for a trade opportunity so he can be replaced by someone less fragile. 

You are only guaranteed to bat lead off once a game. 7 8 and 9 hitters get on base... if they can't they shouldn't be on the team. Correa led the team in OBP last year reaching base 3.9 times out of 10. Ryan Jeffers and Max Kepler got on base 3 times out of 10. It's a dial... not a switch. 

Wallner was one of our top On base guys last year. He's a great candidate for lead off. 

Concur throughout.

And not to mention that Rocco is known to let people know the night before (or early on game day) what the plan is in terms of days off. He's a communicator, so my hunch is that conversation often also includes an anticipated spot in the order. The idea that players don't know where they are hitting until a half-hour before game time is untenable.

Even the 1975 Reds, who we think of as having a set lineup with a bunch of studs and where all eight starters had more than 500 plate appearances, only used its most common batting order seven times.

(Granted, a lineup with Rose, Bench, Morgan, Perez, Foster and Griffey most days would win a lot of games if the order was drawn out of a hat, but the point is that lineups almost always have more variation than we realize.) 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I  buy into the argument you put your best hitter at the top and follow suit down the lineup.  Each spot in the lineup is worth roughly 20 PA over the next one over the course of the year, meaning the leadoff spot will get 40 more PA over the year than the 3rd spot in the lineup.

Unless you have a high OBP guy that takes a lot of pitches (Wallner kind of fits that bill), I don't know why CC doesn't bat leadoff every game he plays.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Jeff K said:

More Wallner; cowbell...cracks me up.  Seriously,  interesting stats.  I do agree that Wallner is one of the teams best hitters and i have high hopes for him this season.  That said, if he is one of our best hitters (and for power), I wonder if there is a way to figure out the lost opportunity of having him hit more frequently with runners on base which the 3/4 slot would likely accomplish.  Does the lost opportunity outweigh the benefits of leading off?

Yes.

[LambchoP]

I don't like Wallner in the leadoff spot. Sure he had a high OBP but that was mostly because he got hit by so many pitches. He's probably our best power hitter so they should have him in the middle of the order to knock in more RBI's. I'd rather see switch hitting Castro, or eventually Keaschal hitting leadoff. We've got to find a way to get guys on base for our big hitters in Buxton, Correa and Lewis.

[Fatbat]

Wallner is batting leadoff today again. He flew out in the first and K’d in the 2nd with 2 on and 2 outs.  ST doesn’t mean much. 

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Wallner is batting leadoff today again. He flew out in the first and K’d in the 2nd with 2 on and 2 outs.  ST doesn’t mean much. 

It must mean enough you told us his failings.🥸

[rambis26]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

For everyone's reference, here's the number of PAs each spot in the order got in MLB as a whole in different situations last year (according to Fangraphs splits leaderboards):

Total PAs-PAs with runners on-PAs with runners in scoring position
1- 22350 -7495- 4493
2- 21833 -9129- 4944
3- 21356 -9638- 5431
4- 20838 -10032- 5842
5- 20303 -8820- 5365
6- 19793 -8648- 4848
7- 19254 -8620- 4898
8- 18660 -8391- 4925
9- 18062 -7870- 4755

Everything divided by 30 to get it in more meaningful per team numbers:
1- 745- 250- 150
2- 728- 304- 165
3- 712- 321- 181
4- 695- 334- 195
5- 677- 294- 179
6- 660- 288- 162
7- 642- 287- 163
8- 622- 280- 164
9- 602- 262- 159

Percentage of PAs with runners on-with runners in scoring position:
1- 34%- 20%
2- 42%- 23%
3- 45%- 25%
4- 48%- 28%
5- 43%- 26%
6- 44%- 24%
7- 45%- 25%
8- 45%- 26%
9- 44%- 26%

Make what you will of these numbers. Just wanted to give some info.

What do these numbers (the % of plate appearances with runners on) look like if you took out the first at bat for the lead off batter?  This would only include ABs where there was a chance greater than 0% that the lead off batter could have runners on base.

[chpettit19]

Lineup construction is fascinating to me. It's so dependent on the team/lineup as a whole where guys hit. Slap hitting fast guys batting leadoff is mostly a thing of the past.

Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna Jr, Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Gunnar Henderson, Fransisco Lindor, George Springer, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gleyber Torres, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Lawrence Butler.

Each of those guys had at least 56 games and 265 PAs in the leadoff spot last year (except Acuna because he was hurt, but he's been a leadoff hitter for years). They're also all guys you expect to do just as much, if not more, slugging than running. Even Steven Kwan worked on adding more power to his game last year and hit more HRs that season (14) than he had his first 2 combined (11). Slugged .425 instead of the .384 he'd slugged the first 2 combined.

Teams are so much more advanced in how they make out lineups now. I don't mind Wallner in the leadoff spot. I also wouldn't mind Buxton, Correa, or Lewis. Larnach against righties is fine with me. Miranda wouldn't be the end of the world. Good Julien makes sense. I'm very much against the Martin and Castro types, though. As the end of the game roles around and the lineup turns over with the game on the line I don't want those guys getting the ABs, I want the big guns getting them. Martin and Castro in the 9 hole to provide some speed in front of the big boppers? Cool. But I don't want them getting more ABs than any of the superior hitters.

That's also the reason I dislike the idea of putting your platoon bats at the top. Not the end of the world, but I don't think it's the best strategy. Because when you pinch hit for them later you're not getting the full value of that pinch hitter because of the "tax" of coming in cold. Pinch hitters perform worse than their norms. 

I don't think a set lineup is necessary at all. Your spot in the order doesn't change your job when you get up there to hit. Know who you are as a hitter, know the situation, and perform. That's the job no matter what. Leadoff hitters taking pitches they should swing at to start a game is bad strategy. Putting yourself in a hole in the count is worse than an extra 2 or 3 pitches your guys can see from the side. Getting on base is your job, not taking pitches. If the 9 hole hitter comes up in the 6th with 2 outs and a guy on 2nd his job is the same as if he were the 4 hole hitter in the first inning with 2 outs and a guy on 2nd. Get the runner in or keep the inning going so the next guy can get them in.

Get your best hitters the most PAs. Who your best hitter is will change throughout the year so knowing when to move people up and down the order is the trick. But, at its core, lineup construction is quite simple. Get the best guys you have to the plate as often as possible.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, rambis26 said:

What do these numbers (the % of plate appearances with runners on) look like if you took out the first at bat for the lead off batter?  This would only include ABs where there was a chance greater than 0% that the lead off batter could have runners on base.

Hey hey, now we're thinking. Now we're getting into the good stuff.

MLB Totals:
Total PA- With Runners On- With RISP
17196-7212-4237

Per team totals
573-240-141

Percentages
42% with runners on
25% with runners in scoring position

[dex8425]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lineup construction is fascinating to me. It's so dependent on the team/lineup as a whole where guys hit. Slap hitting fast guys batting leadoff is mostly a thing of the past.

Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna Jr, Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Gunnar Henderson, Fransisco Lindor, George Springer, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gleyber Torres, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Lawrence Butler.

Each of those guys had at least 56 games and 265 PAs in the leadoff spot last year (except Acuna because he was hurt, but he's been a leadoff hitter for years). They're also all guys you expect to do just as much, if not more, slugging than running. Even Steven Kwan worked on adding more power to his game last year and hit more HRs that season (14) than he had his first 2 combined (11). Slugged .425 instead of the .384 he'd slugged the first 2 combined.

Teams are so much more advanced in how they make out lineups now. I don't mind Wallner in the leadoff spot. I also wouldn't mind Buxton, Correa, or Lewis. Larnach against righties is fine with me. Miranda wouldn't be the end of the world. Good Julien makes sense. I'm very much against the Martin and Castro types, though. As the end of the game roles around and the lineup turns over with the game on the line I don't want those guys getting the ABs, I want the big guns getting them. Martin and Castro in the 9 hole to provide some speed in front of the big boppers? Cool. But I don't want them getting more ABs than any of the superior hitters.

That's also the reason I dislike the idea of putting your platoon bats at the top. Not the end of the world, but I don't think it's the best strategy. Because when you pinch hit for them later you're not getting the full value of that pinch hitter because of the "tax" of coming in cold. Pinch hitters perform worse than their norms. 

I don't think a set lineup is necessary at all. Your spot in the order doesn't change your job when you get up there to hit. Know who you are as a hitter, know the situation, and perform. That's the job no matter what. Leadoff hitters taking pitches they should swing at to start a game is bad strategy. Putting yourself in a hole in the count is worse than an extra 2 or 3 pitches your guys can see from the side. Getting on base is your job, not taking pitches. If the 9 hole hitter comes up in the 6th with 2 outs and a guy on 2nd his job is the same as if he were the 4 hole hitter in the first inning with 2 outs and a guy on 2nd. Get the runner in or keep the inning going so the next guy can get them in.

Get your best hitters the most PAs. Who your best hitter is will change throughout the year so knowing when to move people up and down the order is the trick. But, at its core, lineup construction is quite simple. Get the best guys you have to the plate as often as possible.

Totally agree. Kenny Lofton was talking with Chris Rose about how he wanted to hit leadoff and talking about how there aren't guys like him in the game today. I thought well, if the twins had a guy who got on base at a .390 clip and stole 50 bases in a year that guy would definitely be leading off. But the Twins don't have Kenny Lofton. Put your best hitters at the top of the lineup. Wallner vs righties is definitely one of the three best hitters on the team. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

It must mean enough you told us his failings.🥸

I would have done the same if he went 2 for 2 with 4 rbi’s. 

[big dog]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

LOL 

Ortiz hit .266 for the Twins.

.290 for the Red Sox.

Looks like they coached him to hit for average. 

 

Or he went to a park where warning track flies were either homers or doubles? I remember him saying the Sox told him just to swing away.

[Doc Lenz]

How can a Major League team not have several legitimate lead off hitters on their roster? Similar to an NFL team not having any Centers.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Fatbat said:

On the flip side, what if putting him in the leadoff role, changes his focus a little bit, raises his BA and his OBP gets closer to .400? 

His career OBP is .396 against RHP.  I suspect that's why we are seeing him in that role this spring.  They want to see how he reacts.  Of course, there is no way he leads off against LHP so he is already there if he performs as he has in the past.  

[jorgenswest]

I really appreciated the work from @chpettit19 to give us the breakdown by batting order position. It is helpful. The line up also needs to be strategic. The batters immediately before and after Wallner matter. The Twins need to do a better job of winning the substitution chess match this year.

I think leading off with Wallner against a right handed starter can put the other manager can put the manager in a thought spot. Do you bring in the lefty against him knowing that he has to face Correa, Lewis or Buxton in the at bats following? There is a flaw in that thinking though. The manager can bring that lefty in against the number 8 hitter. If France or Miranda or Jeffers are in that 8 spot that might make the manager think twice about bringing in a lefty early. The Twins will have two or three lefties in that line up including Larnach and Julien. Batting Wallner first with Larnach 5th or perhaps Larnach 4th and Julien 7th is going to make it challenging to place that left handed reliever. The Twins can continue that advantage by keeping the game in the middle innings. Last year the other manager too often put the Twins at a disadvantage with the line up moves. Batting Wallner first might turn that advantage around.

[D.C Twins]

Twins with classic overthinking on leadoff.

Your leadoff should be your best hitter so that they are assured the maximum ABs for the game.

Nothing is more important than having your best hitters get more ABs. 

[Doctor Gast]

Our best traditional lead-off hitter in recent past was Arraez because of his OBP but because he wasn't a threat on the base paths, he was far from ideal. The Twins' lead-off hitter now is whoever is spit out the computer based on their crazy ideology, Wallner seems to be the one now. We have 2 very good lead-off hitter candidates that had good OBP & stole a lot bases in the MiLB (Martin & Keirsey) but the Twins have no interest in such types. So we have to suffer through their ideas. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Doc Lenz said:

How can a Major League team not have several legitimate lead off hitters on their roster? Similar to an NFL team not having any Centers.

What defines a "legitimate lead off hitter?" That's kind of the point of this article. Do you mean "classic leadoff hitter?" Because that the Twins lack, but they don't lack for "legitimate lead off hitters." The game has changed. Kyle Schwarber, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Gunnar Henderson, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Francisco Lindor. These are the leadoff hitters of today. Just flat out good hitters. The Twins have some flat out good hitters. Like Matt Wallner.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our best traditional lead-off hitter in recent past was Arraez because of his OBP but because he wasn't a threat on the base paths, he was far from ideal. The Twins' lead-off hitter now is whoever is spit out the computer based on their crazy ideology, Wallner seems to be the one now. We have 2 very good lead-off hitter candidates that had good OBP & stole a lot bases in the MiLB (Martin & Keirsey) but the Twins have no interest in such types. So we have to suffer through their ideas. 

Why would the Twins want a "traditional" leadoff hitter? This "crazy ideology" isn't the Twins', it's baseball's. The 10 players with the most PAs as leadoff hitters last year had an average wRC+ of 130 while hitting leadoff. Marcus Semien was the worst at 100, followed by Arraez at 108. That's a severe down year for both of them. The other 8 go 116, 123, 128, 129, 131, 136, 159, 167. Add in the Dodgers splitting their leadoff spot between Betts (153 wRC+) and Ohtani (188 OPS+) and there is plenty of data to show your desire for Martin or Keirsey to leadoff is the "crazy ideology." 

By OPS, leadoff hitters were the 3rd best hitters on teams last year. 3 hole hitters had an OPS of .777, 2 hole .755, leadoff .739, 4 hole .737, 5 hole .715 and everyone else below .700. Leadoff hitters had the 4th highest slug of any lineup spot. Behind 3 hole, 2 hole, 4 hole. HRs by lineup spot go in the same order. 3rd best wRC+ by lineup spot. OBP goes 3 hole .335, leadoff .327, 2 hole .326. 

If Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey are one of the Twins 4 best hitters this, or any, year either they have blown expectations out of the water to historic levels or the Twins offense is in real trouble. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Twins with classic overthinking on leadoff.

Your leadoff should be your best hitter so that they are assured the maximum ABs for the game.

Nothing is more important than having your best hitters get more ABs. 

Are we sure Matt Wallner isn't the team's best hitter?

The fact that this is a perfectly reasonable conversation (and a fine idea to do) is more of a reflection on how shallow the lineup is than anything else.  I

[Linus]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would the Twins want a "traditional" leadoff hitter? This "crazy ideology" isn't the Twins', it's baseball's. The 10 players with the most PAs as leadoff hitters last year had an average wRC+ of 130 while hitting leadoff. Marcus Semien was the worst at 100, followed by Arraez at 108. That's a severe down year for both of them. The other 8 go 116, 123, 128, 129, 131, 136, 159, 167. Add in the Dodgers splitting their leadoff spot between Betts (153 wRC+) and Ohtani (188 OPS+) and there is plenty of data to show your desire for Martin or Keirsey to leadoff is the "crazy ideology." 

By OPS, leadoff hitters were the 3rd best hitters on teams last year. 3 hole hitters had an OPS of .777, 2 hole .755, leadoff .739, 4 hole .737, 5 hole .715 and everyone else below .700. Leadoff hitters had the 4th highest slug of any lineup spot. Behind 3 hole, 2 hole, 4 hole. HRs by lineup spot go in the same order. 3rd best wRC+ by lineup spot. OBP goes 3 hole .335, leadoff .327, 2 hole .326. 

If Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey are one of the Twins 4 best hitters this, or any, year either they have blown expectations out of the water to historic levels or the Twins offense is in real trouble. 

Quit confusing things with facts.  If they are managed well and put in the right position they will both OBP 400.

/sn

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What defines a "legitimate lead off hitter?" That's kind of the point of this article. Do you mean "classic leadoff hitter?" Because that the Twins lack, but they don't lack for "legitimate lead off hitters." The game has changed. Kyle Schwarber, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Gunnar Henderson, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Francisco Lindor. These are the leadoff hitters of today. Just flat out good hitters. The Twins have some flat out good hitters. Like Matt Wallner.

Almost like deciding Dan Gladden should lead off because he leads the team in laundry bills and hustle despite a .310 OBP was more of a 'gut' feeling than a smart decision.

[RpR]

Now maybe they put him where they have because last season , in more than a few games, the 7-8-9 batters were the ones getting on base , so with him in his position he can drive them in, rather than strand them on base.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Are we sure Matt Wallner isn't the team's best hitter?

The fact that this is a perfectly reasonable conversation (and a fine idea to do) is more of a reflection on how shallow the lineup is than anything else.  I

If he is, the Twins are in big trouble