3 Minnesota Twins Pitchers Who Will Impact 2025, Despite Not Making the Opening Day Roster

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins enter the season with a solid stable of arms. They have one of the best “problems” in sports, because some of the arms in that stable are major league-ready, but will be forced to start the year at Triple-A St. Paul. Of the pitchers who don't crack the Opening Day roster, which ones are still likely to have an impact this year?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Four of the five Twins rotation spots were locked down before camp even started, and the fifth one has a clear favorite. Pablo López will headline a very strong top three, followed by Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Chris Paddack is the other lock, and I think Simeon Woods Richardson is the favorite to land the fifth spot. David Festa and Zebby Matthews will give Woods Richardson a run for his money, but given his success last year (prior to running out of gas at the end), he’s earned an edge over Festa and Matthews.

Turning to the bullpen, we have two spots for roughly five arms. I'm considering Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Danny Coulombe as locks to make the Opening Day roster, and I'm assuming the Twins will carry eight relievers. That leaves Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Louis Varland, Kody Funderburk, and Eiberson Castellano to compete for those last two spots.

While there is a decent chance that each of the eight arms on the bubble pitch for the big-league team sometime this season, only a couple will likely make significant contributions. For the purpose of this exercise, I am locking Woods Richardson into the rotation and putting Castellano on the Opening Day roster. As a reminder, Castellano was a Rule 5 pick from Philadelphia, and leaving him off the roster would mean the Twins would have to offer him back to the Phillies. Moreover, manager Rocco Baldelli had the following to say about Castellano, in a scrum with reporters at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla.

“We think Eiberson has real potential, and he's here for a reason. There's a reason why we have not gone this route very often.”

Any skipper would say that about a player being brought in under these circumstances, but the salient detail is that Baldelli really hasn't ever had a Rule 5 draftee before. The last time the Twins made a selection, Paul Molitor was still running the dugout, and because of the constraints taking on a Rule 5 guy places on the manager, it seems like something the front office would ask for input on. For those reasons, I think it will take a pretty disastrous spring for him to not make the Opening Day roster. Finally, I think Topa is the most likely to win the last bullpen spot out of camp. So, of the remaining five names whom I'm predicting to be cut from the active roster, who will make an impact in 2025?

Spot Starter/“Next Man Up” In the Rotation
I don't think there's any real way to predict which of Festa or Matthews will be the primary option to fill in in the rotation. It likely has less to do with spring training and more to do with how each player is doing with the Saints at the time an opportunity opens up, or even where the Saints are in their rotation when an emergent need arises. Also, I don't think you can completely write off Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, or Travis Adams as guys who could debut in 2025.

That said, I think Festa showed last year that he is ready for the big leagues, over a longer and stronger sample than Matthews did. Moreover, there is some data from his first spring training appearance suggesting some changes to his delivery and pitch profile were made over the offseason (stay tuned…more to come on that ?). For what it's worth, PECOTA projects Festa as a slightly above-average pitcher, contributing 73 innings across 16 starts while carrying a 4.03 ERA and an 80:28 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jorge Alcalá
Despite dealing with various injuries and inconsistency throughout his career, Alcalá has shown flashes of being a very good reliever. Before imploding in August last season, he carried a 2.93 FIP with a 24.7% strikeout rate and an opponent OPS of just .500. There’s also some strategy to starting him with the Saints: Alcalá is a mere eight days from five years of service time, at which point he can no longer be optioned without his consent. Although he did find his footing in September, the Twins' best strategy may be to open the season with him in St. Paul and make him one of the first calls when a bullpen spot opens. PECOTA projects Alcalá to be an above-average reliever, with a 3.80 ERA across 60 innings.

Louis Varland
It remains to be seen whether or not Varland will move into the bullpen. Baldelli himself said as much just this week.

“We’re not going to sit here and state his permanent role for 2025,” he said. Then, on Tuesday, Varland pitched in an extremely reliever-coded spot in the Twins' game against the Yankees in Ft. Myers. Whether they're ready to say so or not, he's heading to the pen.

In theory, at least, his versatility makes him a realistic candidate to contribute heavily this season as a swingman. Whether it's to cover an injury out of the bullpen; to make a spot start when the timing doesn't work out for one of the aforementioned starters; or if he’s brought up to piggyback with Woods Richardson every so often, there will be plenty of opportunity for Varland this season. I could even see something where he's the opener for a bullpen game. He could give the Twins 2-3 innings and allow them to stretch out their bullpen just a bit more. If there was such a thing as a “super-utility pitcher”, Varland in 2025 might just be that. PECOTA labels him as both a starter and “long” man, and projects a 4.35 ERA across 66 innings pitched. While that doesn't scream impact, I think there's plenty of indirect value in having someone who can creatively and sufficiently eat innings for you. I also think there's a chance he's a short reliever, and that his ERA is closer to 2.35 than to 4.35.

It may have taken longer than we thought to reach the majors, but Derek Falvey’s pitching pipeline is finally ready to impact the Twins. A team already projected to have one of the best bullpens and one of the best starting trios in baseball also boasts incredible depth. Injuries are guaranteed and underperformance is more than likely, but the Twins are well-equipped to handle those bumps in the road with the sheer number of guys who can make an impact in 2025.

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Who else will make an impact after failing to crack the Opening Day roster? Is there anyone not currently on the 40-man roster that will impact 2025? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Karbo]

I think they need to make a trade with Philly to try to keep the rule 5 player and give him some time in either AA or AAA.

[HerbieFan]

Gotta love the depth.  A lot riding on health of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Duran, Jax.  Those guys will be the anchors.  We know injuries will provide plenty of opportunities for Festa and Matthews.  The St. Paul Shuttle should allow innings for whichever relievers don't make the initial 26-man.

[jud6312]

I really hope Paddack isn't a "lock." If he wins the spot, great. But it should be Lopez, Ober, and Ryan as the only "locks," and then Paddack, SWR, Festa, Zebby, etc. in competition for the last two spots.

 

I'm tired of contract - and in Paddack's case, one that wouldn't be considered "large" by a majority of teams in MLB - dictating a player's worthiness for this team.

 

If you want to field a competitive team, you have to have competition from within.

[PatPfund]

The starting bullpen is so inflexible (too good to send down or out of options or Rule 5) that I wouldn't lock in Tonkin. It isn't that he is bad, but he isn't great either; sort of the definitive fungible pitcher. I kind of feel like he is pitching for his job against Castellano, and even if he does make the trip north, Tonkin is probably the guy Alcala comes up for (dangerously assuming a healthy April for Stewart).

And this is really the opposite of what you asked, but I'm fairly mystified by Travis Adams on the 40-man. On a recent TwinsDaily video, discussion turned to the Saints rotation, and it is hard to make a case that Adams is even good enough for that (Festa, Matthews, Raya, Morris, Lewis then maybe Adams and Dobnak?). Unless he hops on the relief train, I'd guess Adams gets bumped when the St Paul shuttle adds a passenger.

(And to answer the question, I don't think Canterino makes the club out of ST, but think he will prove dominant once he gets his feet wet in the bigs.)

[Parfigliano]

TC has finally reached the pitching pipeline promised land.

[Road trip]

"Injuries are guaranteed and underperformance is more than likely,"   This is the key phrase, unfortunately.  There are a lot of pitchers on the list of expected contributors who have a history of injury (Topa, Paddack, Stewart), and frankly every pitching arm is somewhat of a time bomb waiting to go off.  We will see every one of these guys, most of them by June at the latest.

I'd expect Alcala first, if he doesn't make the squad immediately, but we are gonna see them all.

Of guys not mentioned, I think Cory Lewis may get a couple of MLB starts at some point, unless our starting rotation remains surprisingly healthy and effective.  Other non-roster guys like Blewett, Ynoa, and Misiewicz are certainly possibilities if they will accept an initial assignment to AAA.  And of course Randy Dobnak someway, somehow, will probably get another chance (although I'm hoping it doesn't come to that, at least with the Twins).

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I think they need to make a trade with Philly to try to keep the rule 5 player and give him some time in either AA or AAA.

They tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 to avoid this all together but couldn't come to an agreement. It'll be interesting to see how things work out with him in a month, but I'd say the odds are better that Philly demands a high price for him and he's returned to them over there being a deal worked out.

[thelanges5]

We’ve used 8 starters the past 2 years. A lot of Paddack hate on here but we’ll need his innings. Festa, Matthews and at least one of Raya, Morris, Adams will get some time with the big club 

Love to see Castellano pitch his way into a trade or Tonkin DFA etc. He was the Phils MiLB pitcher of the year and has looked it so far. 

[IndianaTwin]

What is the current assumption on Stewart? I've been reading a good likelihood of a brief IL stint. If so, that adds another opening for the bullpen. 

[Guest]

Stewart will start the season on the IL opening a spot for Topa or Alcala, either of whom is a trade candidate.  Often surprising the value teams will give to fill their bullpens in the Spring.

[tony&rodney]

Interesting thoughts. Seems almost a given from article that the best team possible is rostered later in the year.

[NYCTK]

38 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

What is the current assumption on Stewart? I've been reading a good likelihood of a brief IL stint. If so, that adds another opening for the bullpen. 

Brock Stewart on the IL? I'm shocked! 

[Fatbat]

There is a possibility that Varland is in the bullpen on day one as a piggyback/swing guy/stopper with Castellano as the 5th starter.  SWR, Festa, Matthews, Raya and Adams locking down the Saints rotation until someone needs a rest or a wheel falls off. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

They tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 to avoid this all together but couldn't come to an agreement. It'll be interesting to see how things work out with him in a month, but I'd say the odds are better that Philly demands a high price for him and he's returned to them over there being a deal worked out.

If he pitches well, why pay Philly anymore than we have. He belongs to us now. Use him wisely,  keep him healthy and happy.  Screw Philly! 

[IndianaTwin]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Brock Stewart on the IL? I'm shocked! 

Not as new injury, but as buying a couple more weeks of rehab. If he's borderline ready, it's an okay move if it allows time for a fuller review of Castellano, for example.  

[IndianaTwin]

23 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

If he pitches well, why pay Philly anymore than we have. He belongs to us now. Use him wisely,  keep him healthy and happy.  Screw Philly! 

As I understand it, paying Philly a bit more would essentially be buying the ability to option him, rather than needing to keep him on the 26-man roster the whole season. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

28 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

If he pitches well, why pay Philly anymore than we have. He belongs to us now. Use him wisely,  keep him healthy and happy.  Screw Philly! 

He may well be very worth keeping, but that doesn't necessarily translate into a guy you want taking up a space on the 26 man roster for the entire season in 2025.  If the coaches see that he has real potential to be good down the road, then a trade would be in order so that he can be optioned to the minors without having to give him back to the Phillies -- assuming that a reasonable price can be agreed upon.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

There is a possibility that Varland is in the bullpen on day one as a piggyback/swing guy/stopper with Castellano as the 5th starter.  SWR, Festa, Matthews, Raya and Adams locking down the Saints rotation until someone needs a rest or a wheel falls off. 

That would be awful. SWR should be in the rotation. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Barring a trade, I can't imagine that Festa and Matthews won't be starting some games for the Twins.  If they are NOT needed, it would likely mean that they are injured or the rotation is having a season for the record books.  Alcala is a real wild card (how many years in a row has that been written?).  I could see him stick, sent down because this is their last chance to do so, or just traded.  Time will tell.  I think Varland will definitely be a part of the bullpen very soon, if not from opening day.  I think he will force his way in by pitching well in St. Paul.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think they need to make a trade with Philly to try to keep the rule 5 player and give him some time in either AA or AAA.

I think they need to evaluate him to determine whether or not his stuff is worth keeping. If his stuff isn't good enough to be a starter right now, moving him to the bullpen for a long relief or low leverage situation is fine. There's no reason to give up more value for him than the team needs to give up.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

That would be awful. SWR should be in the rotation. 

I am not bullish on SWR remaining in the rotation long term. His conditioning appears to have been an issue last year and once the scouting reports got out, he wasn't all that effective. His stuff didn't grade well, either. Probably a better option out of the bullpen long term, IMHO.

[rdehring]

Interesting that many of you assume that injuries will create X number of openings this year.  In a year that the Twins have fantastic depth, yes depth of excellent young prospects rather than AAAA retreads, is this the year that most of their opening day guys stay healthy and they don't need many to come up to help?

If that is the case, they may just have some arms that could be sought after come July.  Arms that just might bring back a load of younger talent.  Wouldn't that be FANTASTIC, being both in the hunt and able to be a seller!  As for who, that's up to the guys earning the big bucks to decide. 

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Brock Stewart on the IL? I'm shocked! 

Next it will be Paddack.

[The Mad King]

I would hope SWR is in the rotation before Paddock.

[Shaitan]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think they need to make a trade with Philly to try to keep the rule 5 player and give him some time in either AA or AAA.

If we don't even bother to learn his name, I'm not sure he's worth trading for  😁

 

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

As I understand it, paying Philly a bit more would essentially be buying the ability to option him, rather than needing to keep him on the 26-man roster the whole season. 

Well right but if he makes the ‘24 SWR leap, why pay Philly anything more? If he can go 6 innings out of the gate as a starter, make everyone else earn the right to put him in the bullpen by July.  That gets you a bridge guy for the 2nd half. 

[arby58]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

There is a possibility that Varland is in the bullpen on day one as a piggyback/swing guy/stopper with Castellano as the 5th starter.  SWR, Festa, Matthews, Raya and Adams locking down the Saints rotation until someone needs a rest or a wheel falls off. 

I don't buy putting a pitcher with no MLB (or AAA for that matter) experience in the starting rotation over SWR, who started 28 games last year and was something of a rotation-saver until he wore down late in the season. Castellano is still just a prospect, not MLB-proven, which SWR is.

I do agree they should put Varland in the bullpen from day one - his (or Alcala's) stuff is far superior to Tonkin, who is a career 0.0 WAR pitcher. He's not going to get any better - and Varland and Alcala have great upside potential in the BP.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Well right but if he makes the ‘24 SWR leap, why pay Philly anything more? If he can go 6 innings out of the gate as a starter, make everyone else earn the right to put him in the bullpen by July.  That gets you a bridge guy for the 2nd half. 

So you buy into a 'SWR [IF] leap' over the guy who actually made the leap? That makes no sense, unless you spend a lot of time in Vegas.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, rdehring said:

Interesting that many of you assume that injuries will create X number of openings this year.  In a year that the Twins have fantastic depth, yes depth of excellent young prospects rather than AAAA retreads, is this the year that most of their opening day guys stay healthy and they don't need many to come up to help?

If that is the case, they may just have some arms that could be sought after come July.  Arms that just might bring back a load of younger talent.  Wouldn't that be FANTASTIC, being both in the hunt and able to be a seller!  As for who, that's up to the guys earning the big bucks to decide. 

Ryan isn't a retread, and he's had health issues in the last two seasons. Bailey Ober missed the second half of 2022 with a groin injury. Injuries are a fact of life in sports.