3 Minnesota Twins Pitchers Who Will Impact 2025, Despite Not Making the Opening Day Roster

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, rdehring said:

Interesting that many of you assume that injuries will create X number of openings this year.  In a year that the Twins have fantastic depth, yes depth of excellent young prospects rather than AAAA retreads, is this the year that most of their opening day guys stay healthy and they don't need many to come up to help?

If that is the case, they may just have some arms that could be sought after come July.  Arms that just might bring back a load of younger talent.  Wouldn't that be FANTASTIC, being both in the hunt and able to be a seller!  As for who, that's up to the guys earning the big bucks to decide. 

Twins opening day rotation games started
2024 = 118 (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland)
2023 = 118 (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda)
2022 = 116 (Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, Archer) *Paddack was the 6th man for the rotation.
2021 = 112 (Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ, Shoemaker)

The Twins have needed at least 44 starts to be made by guys who were not part of the opening day rotation for the last 4 straight years. There are going to be guys who get hurt. There are likely guys who will lose their spots in the rotation or be traded before opening day or during the season. 
 

[Fatbat]

31 minutes ago, arby58 said:

So you buy into a 'SWR [IF] leap' over the guy who actually made the leap? That makes no sense, unless you spend a lot of time in Vegas.

Its not like SWR or Varland had many starts before ‘24. Varland crashed. SWR worked his butt off to be the next man up. I don’t expect Castellano to be a starter from day one. I do expect the Twins to use options on players that have them and do everything they can to keep Castellano as cheaply as they can, IF they think he is worth it. 
None of this puts the best possible roster on the field in April. 
Before 2024, Varland had pitched in 22 MLB games

SWR pitches in 2.

Neither of them were ever MiLB pitchers of the year.  Neither was any Twins prospects recently.

 

[Danchat]

If Varland and Alcala continue to deal, I hope the likes of Tonkin and Castellano don't stand in their way. I find it very doubtful that Tonkin lasts half the season on the roster like the other middling vets we tried last year (Jay Jackson, Staumont, Okert). Alcala has nothing left to gain pitching in the minors anyways.

[arby58]

59 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Its not like SWR or Varland had many starts before ‘24. Varland crashed. SWR worked his butt off to be the next man up. I don’t expect Castellano to be a starter from day one. I do expect the Twins to use options on players that have them and do everything they can to keep Castellano as cheaply as they can, IF they think he is worth it. 
None of this puts the best possible roster on the field in April. 
Before 2024, Varland had pitched in 22 MLB games

SWR pitches in 2.

Neither of them were ever MiLB pitchers of the year.  Neither was any Twins prospects recently.

 

Wrong - Varland was the Twins MiLB pitcher of the year. Besides, both Varland and SWR had significant AAA experience, which Castellano also does not have. 

https://www.milb.com/news/louie-varland-named-twins-minor-league-pitcher-of-the-year

For that matter, why not put Matthews ahead of Castellano - he was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and also has MLB experience. Wins early in the season count -  I'm not risking those on an unknown quantity when I have a known quantity.

[Fatbat]

21 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Wrong - Varland was the Twins MiLB pitcher of the year. Besides, both Varland and SWR had significant AAA experience, which Castellano also does not have. 

https://www.milb.com/news/louie-varland-named-twins-minor-league-pitcher-of-the-year

For that matter, why not put Matthews ahead of Castellano - he was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and also has MLB experience. Wins early in the season count -  I'm not risking those on an unknown quantity when I have a known quantity.

I don’t disagree with you but Castellano has 77 Milb games pitched, some in relief.  Matthews has 42 Milb and 9 MLB. Varland is now a RP and wont be starting for the twins so that Milb pitcher of the year thing for him didn’t exactly translate to MLB. 
Corey Lewis was out ‘23 Milb pitcher of the year and is somewhere lower in the callup list… 

I agree also that April games matter but do they to the Twins mgmnt? SWR supposedly ran out of gas in August. We all know that he was really really good in April-Aug… up to about 100 innings pitched. 

Will the FO try to mange that to be June-October ‘25?  I would not put it past them…

Im just saying that we shouldn’t be surprised if they send out the shiny new toy to play an April SP role. 

[arby58]

The biggest weight you gave to Castellano was he was a team's minor league pitcher of the year, not Varland or SWR. Now it is Varland didn't  do well in MLB  - see the problem with that? Regardless of what SWR had done before last year, he did it at the MLB level. Castellano has no such foundational basis for selecting him to start games that matter in April. 

You build up starting pitchers' innings, especially when they are young. SWR can grow into more innings. We have absolutely no idea of what Castellano can do above AA.

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

The biggest weight you gave to Castellano was he was a team's minor league pitcher of the year, not Varland or SWR. Now it is Varland didn't  do well in MLB  - see the problem with that? Regardless of what SWR had done before last year, he did it at the MLB level. Castellano has no such foundational basis for selecting him to start games that matter in April. 

You build up starting pitchers' innings, especially when they are young. SWR can grow into more innings. We have absolutely no idea of what Castellano can do above AA.

I don’t disagree with you. I’m basing it mostly on Castellano’s ability if he has it and if management believes in him.  
Last year, they were supposedly going to trot out DesClafani even tho everyone knew he was damaged. This year, a completely different scenario where they can try to hide a rule 5 kid or they can decide to throw him right into the rotation.  When have they done anything conventionally? 

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I am not bullish on SWR remaining in the rotation long term. His conditioning appears to have been an issue last year and once the scouting reports got out, he wasn't all that effective. His stuff didn't grade well, either. Probably a better option out of the bullpen long term, IMHO.

I have my reservations about SWR as well.   Ideally, Festa and Matthews both surpass him.  I hope I am wrong, but SWRs ceiling looks like a back of the rotation guy to me.  Let's hope Festa and Matthews can become as good or better than Ryan / Ober and force a trade of SWR.

[thelanges5]

20 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

What is the current assumption on Stewart? I've been reading a good likelihood of a brief IL stint. If so, that adds another opening for the bullpen. 

From a Bobby Nightengale Strib article today. 
Brock Stewart, who underwent shoulder surgery last August, said he is expected to begin pitching in spring training games next week. It keeps him on track to start the season on time.

[Otaknam]

Splitting hairs here, but I think calling the Twins’ pitching depth “incredible” is the wrong adjective. They have young but unproven depth after the top three guys, which is a good problem to have. To me incredible depth means you have at least six starters who have significant major league success. The Twins don’t have that yet, but may be at that point after this year. And while SWR had some success and gave them innings, Rocco didn’t show much trust in him to pitch more than five innings. Hopefully, a couple of these young guys prove to be at least number 2-3 starters, like Festa and Matthews, or maybe others. 

[rdehring]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Twins opening day rotation games started
2024 = 118 (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland)
2023 = 118 (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda)
2022 = 116 (Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, Archer) *Paddack was the 6th man for the rotation.
2021 = 112 (Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ, Shoemaker)

The Twins have needed at least 44 starts to be made by guys who were not part of the opening day rotation for the last 4 straight years. There are going to be guys who get hurt. There are likely guys who will lose their spots in the rotation or be traded before opening day or during the season. 
 

Don't disagree with what you are saying bean.  But remember last year, didn't their two opening day catchers start every game of the year?  Was just trying to say that when they now have fantastic young depth, will this be the year it isn't needed?  If so, they will have some trade options come July.  Not saying that will happen, just that fate may break to the good side this year.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

From a Bobby Nightengale Strib article today. 
Brock Stewart, who underwent shoulder surgery last August, said he is expected to begin pitching in spring training games next week. It keeps him on track to start the season on time.

Thanks for this update. It would be great if it happens.

I'm not a killjoy when it comes to speculating on injuries, but if erring on the side of caution in the buildup is the plan, I don't think that's a problem. If everyone is healthy, a brief IL stint for him could be helpful for roster management.  

(Also, at least for me, your link is taking me back to this post, so I'm not able to read it.)

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

And while SWR had some success and gave them innings, Rocco didn’t show much trust in him to pitch more than five innings. 

SWR went over 5 innings in 10 of his 28 starts and 5 innings in another 4. He had a stretch of four starts where he went 6 innings each time. His average was hurt by his last 6 starts, where he went less than 5 innings each time. It's also worth noting that the MLB average innings for starting pitchers last year was just a little over 5.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

...He had a stretch of four starts where he went 6 innings each time...

SWR didn't have a single instance of back to back outings with 6+ innings pitching for the Twins last year. I'm don't care about his MiLB results much.
4/13 = 6.0 IP
5/6 = 6.0 IP (3 starts later)
6/8 = 6.1 IP (6 starts later)
6/20 = 6.0 IP (2 starts later)
7/7 = 6.0 IP (3 starts later)
7/23 = 6.0 IP (2 starts later)
8/10 = 7.0 IP (3 starts later)
Last 8 starts never exceeded 5.0 innings

The average MLB starter pitches 6+ innings most of the time, and the very worst do it 25% of the time. SWR's stuff just wasn't good enough to pitch efficiently last year and while he had a few 6 inning starts, he did it rarely. In fact, SWR managed 6+ innings just 25% of the time putting him among the worst SP's in all of MLB with 20+ starts on the year.

Some of that has to do with Baldelli and his infamously quick hook, but more has to do with the fact SWR has to throw a lot of pitches because he needs to place them more perfectly to have success than guys with better stuff.

[arby58]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

SWR didn't have a single instance of back to back outings with 6+ innings pitching for the Twins last year. I'm don't care about his MiLB results much.
4/13 = 6.0 IP
5/6 = 6.0 IP (3 starts later)
6/8 = 6.1 IP (6 starts later)
6/20 = 6.0 IP (2 starts later)
7/7 = 6.0 IP (3 starts later)
7/23 = 6.0 IP (2 starts later)
8/10 = 7.0 IP (3 starts later)
Last 8 starts never exceeded 5.0 innings

I don't know where you are getting your information from, but it is wrong. This is a screenshot from Baseball Reference for his starts in June and July 2024:

[arby58]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Some of that has to do with Baldelli and his infamously quick hook, but more has to do with the fact SWR has to throw a lot of pitches because he needs to place them more perfectly to have success than guys with better stuff.

In the 10 start stretch in June and July 2024, Richardson went 5, 7, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4 innings for the Twins. That averages out to 5.5 innings per start, which is higher than the league average for starting pitchers last year. It's simply not true that he can't pitch deep into games because of his stuff.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The average MLB starter pitches 6+ innings most of the time, and the very worst do it 25% of the time. 

There were just 14 pitchers in all of MLB that averaged 6 innings per game (and only 9 that averaged 6+) for the season. Your claims are wildly inaccurate. From Baseball Reference:

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

There were just 14 pitchers in all of MLB that averaged 6 innings per game (and only 9 that averaged 6+) for the season. Your claims are wildly inaccurate. From Baseball Reference:

Did I say "AVERAGED" 6 innings?

No. Stop putting words in my mouth. All you have to do is look at the game logs. You'll find MOST pitchers go 6+ innings in 50% of their starts.

i.e. average 5.2 innings, 75% of starts at 6.0+ IP
6.0 IP
6.0 IP
6.0 IP
5.0 IP

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

In the 10 start stretch in June and July 2024, Richardson went 5, 7, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4 innings for the Twins. That averages out to 5.5 innings per start, which is higher than the league average for starting pitchers last year. It's simply not true that he can't pitch deep into games because of his stuff.

 

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

I don't know where you are getting your information from, but it is wrong. This is a screenshot from Baseball Reference for his starts in June and July 2024:

Sorry, but your "Inngs" column is BS. It rounds up to integers. Here is the real data/screenshot which has a column called "IP" which shows actual innings pitched. Do you see those 6.0+ inning starts all in a row? 

Nope. 6.0, 5.1, 5.2, 6.0.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Did I say "AVERAGED" 6 innings?

No. Stop putting words in my mouth. All you have to do is look at the game logs. You'll find MOST pitchers go 6+ innings in 50% of their starts.

i.e. average 5.2 innings, 75% of starts at 6.0+ IP
6.0 IP
6.0 IP
6.0 IP
5.0 IP

I did look at the game logs

 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Did I say "AVERAGED" 6 innings?

No. Stop putting words in my mouth. All you have to do is look at the game logs. You'll find MOST pitchers go 6+ innings in 50% of their starts.

i.e. average 5.2 innings, 75% of starts at 6.0+ IP
6.0 IP
6.0 IP
6.0 IP
5.0 IP

What you said was "The average MLB starter pitches 6+ innings most of the time, and the very worst do it 25% of the time."

So, I did look at the logs, and have done the analysis for the first assertion, and took the starter who had the third-most innings pitched per start - which, in a five man rotation, would be the definition of 'average MLB starter.' 

On re-reading your post, I think the problem is terminology. I take "6+ innings" to mean 'over 6 innings.' I think what you more accurately should say is 'at least 6 innings.' When I looked at the first 12 teams, ordered by their first starter with the most innings pitched per start, it was about half 6 innings or more and half less than six innings. However, when I added the rest of the league, it is not surprising that it shifted dramatically, as these are teams without 'innings eaters' at the top, so by the time you get to their average pitcher, they are less than innings eaters.

Mariners: George Kirby.  6 innings or more: 27 starts. Under 6, 7 starts. This is by far the best stat to support the initial claim. 

Royals: Michael Wacha. Six innings or more: 17. Under 6: 13.

Astros: Hunter Brown. Six innings or more: 20. Under 6: 11.

Phillies: Christopher Sanchez. Six innings or more: 17. Under 6: 14. So far so good - it's about to change.

Detroit: Casey Mize. Six innings or more: 6. Under 6: 16

Giants: Kyle Harrison. Six innings or more: 9.  Under 6: 15

Braves: Spencer Schnellenbach. Six innings or more: 13. Under 6: 8.

Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt. Six innings or more: 14.  Under 6: 17.

Orioles: Dean Kremer. Six innings or more: 10.  Under 6: 14.

Red Sox: Brayer Bello. Six innings or more: 11. Under 6: 19.

Cubs: Justin Steele. >Six innings or more: 12. Under 6: 12. Our first tied result. The total is now 5-5-1 for the assertion. 

Cardinals: Andre Pillante. Six innings or more: 8.  Under 6: 21. 

Twins: Bailey Ober. Six innings or more: 20.  Under 6: 11. Ober is actually one of the better performers. So much for the Baldelli 'quick hook.' It is now 6-6-1 for the assertion, but it's about to get ugly.

Mets: Shawn Maneaea. Six innings or more: 16. Under 6: 16. Another tie. 6-6-2.

Pirates: Jared Jones. Six innings or more: 11. Under 6: 11. Yet another tie. 6-6-3. Now comes the 'assertion losing streak' with teams that have average pitchers well below the 'Bean line.'

Angels: Griffin Canning. Six innings or more: 12. Under 6: 20.

Reds: Nick Lodolo. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 11.

Diamondbacks: Jordan Montgomery. Six innings or more: 7. Under 6: 18.

Yankees: Luis Gil. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 19

Nationals: MacKenzie Gore. Six innings or more: 11. Under 6: 21.

Padres: Matt Waldron. Six innings or more: 12. Under 6: 15.

Guardians: Logan Allen. Six innings or more: 5. Under 6: 15.

A's: Joey Estes. Six innings or more: 9. Under 6: 16.

Rays: Ryan Pepiot. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 16.

White Sox: Garrett Crochet. Six innings or more: 11`. Under 6: 21.

Rockies: Kyle Freeland. Six innings or more 11. Under 6: 10. Yay! The assertion losing streak ends at 10 teams. The assertion tally is now 7-16-3. 

Brewers: Tobias Myers. Six innings or more: 9. Under 6: 18.

The final three teams are sort of asterisks, as they did not have three starters with at least 20 starts - which is the statistical minimum for starting pitchers for x per game statistics. I took the third starter with the most starts, but it's fine to call it a day at 7-17-3. It doesn't get any better for the assertion.

Marlins: Ryan Weathers. Six innings or more: 8. Under 6: 8. Another tie.

Dodgers: Yashinobu Yamamoto. Six innings or more: 7. Under 6: 11.

Rangers: Jon Gray. Six innings or more: 7. Under 6: 16.

So, it is either 7-17-3 or 7-19-4. Either way, the assertion doesn't look so good. 

The second assertion was that "even the very worst do it 25% of the time." No, not even for the 'qualified starters' (those with at least 20 starts. Take the bottom of that group, Yariel Rodriguez. Last year, he started 25 games and went 6 or more innings on 6 occasions. That is 24%, which is not 25%. 

Wait, there's more! Kyle Hendricks had 5 starts of 6 or more innings and 24 of 6 or less. That works out to 17 percent. 

I could go on, but the second assertion is clearly false.

 

Edited February 28, 2025 by arby58
clarity and more information

[tony&rodney]

Not understanding any fuss about Woods Richardson as a starting pitcher for the Twins. If he hasn't earned anything I'm confused what people are looking for in a pitcher. The comment that Woods Richardson is only a back end of a rotation starter is also a little weird. Did anyone think Simeon was a candidate for the first three spots? Woods Richardson is a good option for the #5 starting pitcher. 

When Falvey or Baldelli state something as done i actually take their word. Paddack will be in the rotation just like Bundy before him. So speaking to the title of the article, we can expect David Festa and Zebby Matthews to sail into the picture at some point. I might want something different but Falvdelli make the calls.

[Vanimal46]

On 2/26/2025 at 9:47 PM, Danchat said:

If Varland and Alcala continue to deal, I hope the likes of Tonkin and Castellano don't stand in their way. I find it very doubtful that Tonkin lasts half the season on the roster like the other middling vets we tried last year (Jay Jackson, Staumont, Okert). Alcala has nothing left to gain pitching in the minors anyways.

Correct. I was just going to post what am I missing on Alcala getting sent to the minors to begin the season? This is at least 2 articles I’ve read floating this idea and it’s mind boggling. If we are keeping Tonkin or the rule 5 pick over him then Falvey has stopped paying attention to the team in this new role of his. 

Edit: I’ll also add Justin Topa to that list. If anything throw the 34 year old with 1/2 season of success in St Paul to keep Alcala in the MLB pen