Could Twins Reliever Jorge Alcalá Begin the Season at Triple-A?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Could this high-leverage Twins reliever be the odd pitcher out of a packed bullpen?

Entering the 2025 MLB regular season, the Minnesota Twins' greatest area of strength is unquestionably their bullpen. Headlined by star closer Jhoan Durán, elite set-up reliever Griffin Jax, breakout high-leverage arm Cole Sands and bounceback candidate Brock Stewart, FanGraphs's ZiPS projects Minnesota's bullpen to lead MLB with 6.0 Wins Above Replacements at FanGraphs (fWAR). Since newly-acquired reliever Danny Coulombe (ZiPS projects him to net 0.4 fWAR in 2025) had not yet signed with Minnesota when the club's ZiPS projection was published, the model presumably possesses loftier expectations for a unit rich with premium talent.

After Durán, Jax, Sands, Stewart, and Coulombe, FanGraphs's roster resource expects the Twins' last three bullpen spots to be claimed by Jorge Alcalá, Michael Tonkin, and Eiberson Castellano. That said, recent roster projections from a handful of beat writers in Fort Myers suggest otherwise. On Monday, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune released his first roster projection of the offseason. In the article, Nightengale agreed that Durán, Jax, Sands, Stewart, Coulombe, Tonkin, and Alcalá would make the club out of spring training. However, he removed Castellano for starter-turned-reliever Louis Varland.

Minnesota selected Castellano in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning the front office would need to keep the 23-year-old hurler on the 26-man roster for the entire season to maintain his services. The hard-tossing righty has yet to pitch past Double-A. Although he's an intriguing, young arm, electing to keep him in favor of more talented and experienced relievers would be a steep ask for a club with postseason aspirations. Nevertheless, entering the season with Varland over Castellano would be a wise decision for Twins decision-makers, even if it meant forfeiting Castellano's rights and returning him to the Philadelphia Phillies.

In their second roster projection of the offseason, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic expressed a similar train of thought, also predicting Durán, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Coulombe, Alcalá, and Tonkin to occupy seven of the unit's eight spots. However, the two writers expect right-handed reliever Justin Topa to beat out Castellano for the club's eighth bullpen spot instead of Varland. Those in touch with the club expect Castellano's time in Minnesota to be cut short. That said, inconsistency surrounding who they think will earn the eighth bullpen spot indicates more uncertainty encircles the unit.

As noted, Nightengale chose Varland to usurp Castellano, while Hayes and Gleeman selected Topa. One will likely earn a bullpen spot to begin the season. But what if it's both? Yes, Varland and Topa both possess minor-league options. Yet, shouldn't the club be inclined to field its eight best relievers? If Varland and Topa impress during spring training, Minnesota could have no choice but to reward both hard-throwing righties with spots on the eight-pitcher unit. If that's the case, the odd pitcher out alongside Castellano could be Alcalá.

In his piece, Nightengale noted, "Alcalá lacked consistency at times, but few pitchers on the staff can match the potency of his pitch mix." Despite generating an encouraging 3.24 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and 58-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 58 1/3 innings pitched last season, the hard-tossing righty was optioned to Triple-A three times last season, including a startling demotion for Cole Irvin (eek!) in mid-September. Alcalá's fastball, slider, and changeup are plus pitches that play at the major league level. That said, the front office has demonstrated a willingness to demote the 29-year-old, particularly when those who follow the team least expect it.

On the surface, optioning Alcalá to Triple-A to begin the season seems unlikely. He was better than Varland last season, and Topa is returning from a torn patellar tendon in his left knee that nearly left him out for all of 2024. That said, the front office values depth, especially in the bullpen. Interestingly, electing to hand Varland or Topa the final bullpen spot over Alcalá would be a wise decision from a depth-accruing perspective. Alcalá is eight games away from receiving five years of service time, meaning he can no longer be optioned to the minors without first being placed on waivers.

If Minnesota were to place Alcalá on waivers, he would be claimed immediately, signaling team decision-makers would understandably do everything possible to avoid that lose-lose scenario. Varland is nowhere near five years of service time. Topa, on the other hand, is nearing five years of service. However, Minnesota has more leeway to take advantage of his remaining options than Alcalá. That being the case, if Varland, Topa, or the under-the-radar arms in Kody Funderburk, Matt Canterino, or Travis Adams shine in camp, the organization could reasonably decide to manipulate the little service time they still can with Alcalá.

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[oregontwin]

If their interest in Castellano is real and they see a future for him, I would think that they might let minor league options and inevitable injuries play out.

[bean5302]

If Castellano doesn't truly impress the Twins coaches and management as a starter during Spring Training, it's easy to move him to the bullpen to get a good look at him for a month or two. If the Twins don't have any space in the bullpen for a low leverage arm, something has gone very crazy. Having Castellano come in and pitch a few innings in a blowout is hardly risky. There's just no point to making a selection in Rule 5 if you're not willing to even give the player a chance.

[IndianaTwin]

Isn't the sense that Stewart is likely to start the season on the IL? 

[bean5302]

As far as Alcala goes, yeah, he could definitely start in AAA. The Twins were quick to demote him throughout last year, and it certainly didn't seem like Baldelli or the front office changed how they felt about him towards the end of the year. Expecting management has suddenly seen the light now seems unrealistic.

It was seemingly bizarre how frequently Alcala would go out, pitch a couple solid games only to be on the shuttle and stuck in St. Paul for the mandatory 2 weeks while less talented bullpen fillers were blowing games.

[DocBauer]

I don't often bash Rocco, even if i don't always agree with him. But Alcala was POORLY used last season. He had thrown something like 20 innings due to injuries the previous 2yrs. But he's got the pure stuff to be very good 1 IP at a time. Especially coming off injury, he should have been handled as such. But he was frequently asked to throw 40-50 pitches at 2-3 innings per. And the "someone has to throw those innings" is either a horrible mismanagement of Rocco, or the FO.

No wonder he was worn out later in the season.

Topa has options, so does Varland. I want the best pen the Twins can assemble. But if they HAVE to protect depth, NO WAY should Alcala be sent down. The guy has paid his dues, and performed very well when used properly. 

I don't like the idea of protecting Castellano unless he looks GREAT in ST. If he does, then make a trade with the Phillies that makes sense. And if that doesn't work, let someone else take the temporary demotion to AAA before the inevitable injury/promotion of someone else.

Name me a team that has a high K reliever that produces when used properly that would send said pitcher down? That's just awful roster management.

[tony&rodney]

Jorge Alcala has all the stuff to be a shut down late inning reliever. He plays for a team that wants him to throw more than an inning. Seems like a clash of capability versus desire.

The Twins can start the season with Alcala in AAA but gain little unless they feel that any of Topa, Varland, or Castellano have better pitches which seems unlikely. If that occurs and when Alcala is called up he can no longer be optioned after five days of service time in MLB. At that point the Twins would be just playing with Alcala's head and he is gone. So no the Twins need to keep Alcala until they no longer want him on the team.

[Parfigliano]

He should be a 1 inning guy.  Where he throws that inning should be based on how he does in spring training.

[arby58]

I don't get why Tonkin is considered a better option than Alcala (or others, for that matter). For his career, he is 0.0 WAR, he was nothing to write home about last year, and he's 35 years old - he's not going to get any better.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I don't get why Tonkin is considered a better option than Alcala (or others, for that matter). For his career, he is 0.0 WAR, he was nothing to write home about last year, and he's 35 years old - he's not going to get any better.

I agree. Maybe his brother-in-law, Jason Kubel, is part owner of the Twins.

[old nurse]

11 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I don't get why Tonkin is considered a better option than Alcala (or others, for that matter). For his career, he is 0.0 WAR, he was nothing to write home about last year, and he's 35 years old - he's not going to get any better.

Once the Yankees worked with him his FIP became in the low 3 range and continues with the Twins, he can pitch multiple innings.  Career numbers are kind of useless. Thiebar gas a career WAR of 4.4  I guess they should have kept him. 

[old nurse]

Four times from when I started the above note this page has reloaded.  They stated in an article  that traffic was down. They blamed it on the Twins. If this was a site that I was going to casually versus being a day one of their existence person, I would not come back. If the rest of the diamond centric sites do this I would not be surprised to see them struggle 

[Cory Engelhardt]

They can send a prospect to Philadelphia too in a trade for Castellanos. That’s is an option. Plus with alcala and Varland and Topa all having options, in the end it doesn’t matter at all JUST the opening day roster. The 8 bullpen members for game 1 will certainly be different in game 9.

They have room for everyone is what I am saying. At least for the first month and change at minimum. And that’s only if everyone stays healthy 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Once the Yankees worked with him his FIP became in the low 3 range and continues with the Twins, he can pitch multiple innings.  Career numbers are kind of useless. Thiebar gas a career WAR of 4.4  I guess they should have kept him. 

Oh, come on - his WAR last year was -0.1. So why did the Yankees let him go if he was such a catch? I'm not buying a 35 year old pitcher with his track record.

[GNess]

Clearly there is a surplus of options. Perhaps Spring Games and performances will solve the issue.

Alcala most definitely has the stuff to be on the roster opening day.

 

 

[DocBauer]

Tonkin is a solid, viable middle pen option. His numbers over the last couple of seasons prove that. We can point to how many times he was DFA OR we can point to the fact that he was IMMEDIATELY picked up by many teams.

Why was he DFA so many times? Because he's over 30yo and not a back end RP and teams were playing the roster depth game.  Why did everyone keep signing him or bringing him back? Because he's a very solid rubber arm, dependable middle man on the cheap.

The Twins brought him back precisely due to what I stated above. He's a cheap, veteran, solid rubber arm middle man who's easy to cut if necessary. I actually feel sorry for the guy.

Consider for a moment Pagan and how well he did for the Twins in 2023 once he was placed in a middle innings role. That's Tonkin. But it's also Topa, if he's ready to go. Tonkin isn't just a "throw away arm". An honest glimpse of his profile on  Baseball Reference would show you he's actually worthy of being on board for his cheap deal. 

BUT, there is a point where we look at depth and potential and need to pause.

Options be damned...and depth is nice...I believe in building the best damn pen you can! For a moment, let's forget Castellono. The BEST BP the Twins could put together would be Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Alcala, Coulombe, Varland, and either Topa...who has an option...or Tonkin.

To me it's a healthy Topa, hoping to prove 2023 was reality, or Tonkin as an older veteran who might be more proven. 

To ME that's the hierarchy. NOWHERE does Alcala fit as the 8th man, options be damned. Topa, with an option, or Tonkin is the last man.

IF, Castellono surprises, he's STILL behind the more proven Alcala in my opinion. You just DON'T dismiss or suplant a productive powerful arm in the fold. INSTEAD, you use that arm more intelligently and worry more about the 8th spot in your pen, which concerns me.

[Wizard11]

They should be able to successfully juggle all of these pitchers for the first month.  Alcalá being sent down for a week or two is not a travesty.  He is gone at the end of this season.  Castellanos can be controlled for several seasons.  

Similarly with Topa or Varland being sent down.  A short term sample size on any of these 4 is highly unpredictable as it is with Tonkin.  Ideally they keep all of them as they will need them.

The Twins have already indicated that they value Castellano’s potential more than Henriquez, Headrick, or Moran.  

[PatPfund]

Some of these seemingly hard decisions are going to be super easy in a few weeks when play and injury has sorted some of them out (including possible injury to one of the top 5). But all being equal, I agree with the top five. (I also agree with any statement that Opening Day is relatively meaningless except where it means losing a player.)

If Castellano throws well, I think they keep him to start the year and explore a deal with the Phils to give him options if/when the need becomes apparent. 

Tonkin has a guaranteed contract, and probably is in barring injury or poor performance. They have to waive him, and potentially lose the $1 million spent on him.

Varland is being started as a starter, and as such, he likely starts the year at St Paul and if he is converted to the 'pen, I expect that to happen at St Paul as well, before being called up. (If anyone thinks Varland is great right now as an RP, the reality is a lot more mixed. Much like his starts, RP Louis missed bats unless he didn't, and the contacts were pretty loud.)

Alcala would be my third, but since he loses options, they may indeed start him in St Paul to keep some short term flexibility.

A wild card could appear in camp (like if Canterino starts blowing people away like Duran did a few years ago), and force their way onto the roster. But the Twins have also (for the second year in a row) built a VERY inflexible 'pen with the back end (Tonkin, Alcala soon, Castellano) in keep 'em or lose 'em mode, and the reality is you need a shuttle. So again, things will change quickly after Opening Day (Tonkin DFA'd? Stewart hurt? Castellano sent back/down?), and good arms with more flexibility (Varland? Canterino? Prielipp? Adams?) will make up the 'pen shuttle.

 

[Karbo]

12 hours ago, arby58 said:

I don't get why Tonkin is considered a better option than Alcala (or others, for that matter). For his career, he is 0.0 WAR, he was nothing to write home about last year, and he's 35 years old - he's not going to get any better.

Agree with you. Why not go with youth and potential for the last spot, someone that will be around for a few years.

[arby58]

7 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Agree with you. Why not go with youth and potential for the last spot, someone that will be around for a few years.

Besides, Alcala's stuff, when he is on, is electric. I'd be shocked if anyone described Tonkin that way.

[LambchoP]

I think the twins will give Castellano every opportunity to stick in the pen. They are using a roster spot on him, he's one of our top pitching prospects now and he has great potential as a starter down the road. It sounds like Stewart might start the year on the IL which should open a spot for Alcala, leaving Topa and Varland pitching for St Paul, likely first men up. Alcala was misused last year. Hopefully they learned from that because of used correctly, he has the potential to be one of our best late inning options.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I don't often bash Rocco, even if i don't always agree with him. But Alcala was POORLY used last season. He had thrown something like 20 innings due to injuries the previous 2yrs. But he's got the pure stuff to be very good 1 IP at a time. Especially coming off injury, he should have been handled as such. But he was frequently asked to throw 40-50 pitches at 2-3 innings per. And the "someone has to throw those innings" is either a horrible mismanagement of Rocco, or the FO.

No wonder he was worn out later in the season.

Topa has options, so does Varland. I want the best pen the Twins can assemble. But if they HAVE to protect depth, NO WAY should Alcala be sent down. The guy has paid his dues, and performed very well when used properly. 

I don't like the idea of protecting Castellano unless he looks GREAT in ST. If he does, then make a trade with the Phillies that makes sense. And if that doesn't work, let someone else take the temporary demotion to AAA before the inevitable injury/promotion of someone else.

Name me a team that has a high K reliever that produces when used properly that would send said pitcher down? That's just awful roster management.

Alcala should be considered 4th/5th guy in the PEN. Agreed! Talented, agreed! Looking forward to a solid ‘25.

Castellano is a non-issue relative to roster spot. They’ll trade a prospect for him if he’s deemed effective and then the roster spot is freed up. If not, they give him back to Philly. A guy that’s only been to AA isn’t going to clog a roster spot for 6 months!

The “poor Jorge” comments got to be challenged though. He pitched 58.1 innings in 54 outings. I’m no math wizard but that’s tough to do if you have “multiple 2-3 inning outings”. Rocco didn’t create the Texas debacle of 4 runs on 9 pitches. He gave up a single - double - double - fly ball out - HR. Game tied on 9 pitches. The B.S. about Baldelli taking him out before all the damage is ridiculous. NOBODY is preparing to remove a guy immediately if he has been solid all year & has a 4-0 lead. Within his total of 19 total pitches he got 2 more outs but gave up a second HR as well. He entered that outing in mid-August with a 2.15 ERA. He had pretty good success to that point for being “so terribly misused”.

Alcala got sent down earlier in the year to re-set and work on command. It worked! He got sent down in September because he appeared to be a head case and somewhat physically drained. A little fatigue on both fronts. Offense failed last 6 weeks - the PEN and player moves in the PEN had very little to do with missing playoffs.

[DJL44]

Quote

He was better than Varland last season

Nearly everyone was better than Varland last season. Henriquez and Headrick were better than Varland last season and they were both cut off the 40-man roster. Louie was lousy.

BTW - both Henriquez and Headrick were cut to keep Castellano on the roster. They're going to give him a fair shot.

[yeahyabetcha]

I think Alcala if healthy and based on past performances and usage should make the opening day roster.  But than again I have never really figured out the pen construction or usage since Falvey and Rocco took over

[JD-TWINS]

IMO, Varland - Paddack are very good options for 1-2 inning stints as needed. These two, at max effort can get guys out, particularly if they aren’t facing anyone twice! Also, available for the 3 inning spot start every 5-6 weeks.

Topa & Coulombe seem to be key pieces.

Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran

Stewart starts season on IL.

Tonkin is insurance - he’s traded late in Spring Training if no insurance is needed. They have Blewett at AAA for this type of depth.

Castellano is a detail - don’t see a guy that hasn’t been past AA clogging a roster spot for 6 months. If they like him they change the Rule 5 designation & make a trade……he then has options. If they don’t like him he goes back to Philly.

 

[Doctor Gast]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I don't often bash Rocco, even if i don't always agree with him. But Alcala was POORLY used last season. He had thrown something like 20 innings due to injuries the previous 2yrs. But he's got the pure stuff to be very good 1 IP at a time. Especially coming off injury, he should have been handled as such. But he was frequently asked to throw 40-50 pitches at 2-3 innings per. And the "someone has to throw those innings" is either a horrible mismanagement of Rocco, or the FO.

No wonder he was worn out later in the season.

Topa has options, so does Varland. I want the best pen the Twins can assemble. But if they HAVE to protect depth, NO WAY should Alcala be sent down. The guy has paid his dues, and performed very well when used properly. 

I don't like the idea of protecting Castellano unless he looks GREAT in ST. If he does, then make a trade with the Phillies that makes sense. And if that doesn't work, let someone else take the temporary demotion to AAA before the inevitable injury/promotion of someone else.

Name me a team that has a high K reliever that produces when used properly that would send said pitcher down? That's just awful roster management.

Doc, you hit the nail on the head. When used properly Alcala is a valuable high-leverage BP weapon. But that's it if used properly, he wasn't last season. So should Alcala be chosen on the opening active roster? The answer is yes, but will he? The answer is more likely no. Baldelli's favorites get chance after chance & are handled with kid's gloves. Alcala isn't one of Baldelli's favorites, so Alcala won't get the special treatment that is needed, and will have a very short leash. IMO Alcala will unfortunately start out in AAA. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Agree with you. Why not go with youth and potential for the last spot, someone that will be around for a few years.

& someone with options

[gman]

I like that the discussion seems to be mostly around how to keep the most talent available, instead of keeping guys without any talent period.

[Althebum82]

Nobody has so far projected Castellano to be the next coming of Johan Santana.  If he is, then trade away whatever pitching talent is necessary to keep him and develop him as needed (including Alcala) because he is certainly worth it.

In reality, no other Rule 5 pick by this franchise has had an impact beyond a single season, and at this point there is little anticipation that this one will be any different.  I do not expect Alcala to be at AAA to start the season.  He may be traded based on how he was handled last year, but otherwise I expect him to survive at least to opening day on a big league roster someplace and hopefully with the Twins.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Althebum82 said:

Nobody has so far projected Castellano to be the next coming of Johan Santana.  If he is, then trade away whatever pitching talent is necessary to keep him and develop him as needed (including Alcala) because he is certainly worth it.

In reality, no other Rule 5 pick by this franchise has had an impact beyond a single season, and at this point there is little anticipation that this one will be any different.  I do not expect Alcala to be at AAA to start the season.  He may be traded based on how he was handled last year, but otherwise I expect him to survive at least to opening day on a big league roster someplace and hopefully with the Twins.

Ryan Pressly says hello.