Does Cole Sands Have a Future in the Minnesota Twins' Starting Rotation? - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

You, sobbing: You can't just call every good pitcher with plus stuff and a deep arsenal a starter! It doesn't wor that way!

Me, pointing at Cole Sands: Starter

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

The transformation of Cole Sands might, in a crowded field of contenders, be the most impressive thing an already-impressive Twins pitching development group did last year. He began the season as a fringe guy and ended it as, arguably, the second-most reliable reliever on the team. A big boost in velocity made a big difference, and so did a rejiggered pitch mix.

Sands, 27, has four years of team control remaining and can still be optioned to the minor leagues this coming season, but by the second half of 2024, sending him to St. Paul felt out of the question. In his first two partial seasons in the majors, he'd posted DRA- figures of 106 and 109, respectively. DRA- is Baseball Prospectus's league-indexed holistic pitching metric, where 100 is average and lower is better. In 2024, Sands's went from the wrong side of average all the way to 82. He struck out 29.1% of opposing batters and walked just 4.1% of them.

I say it's the perfect time to shake things up for him.

Earlier this winter, I was among the chorus calling for the team to consider making this conversion with Griffin Jax. By the reckoning of most fans I encountered, though, the risks of that move—of disrupting or even forfeiting what Jax has found in short-burst relief, of thinning the bullpen—outweighed the benefits, which basically boil down to:

• Creating extra total value within the roster;
• Insulating the team better against the eventuality of an injury to Joe Ryan or one of the Twins' other starters; and
• Rolling the dice on the chance of creating an ace.

Ultimately, it seems, the team and Jax agreed. There are no current plans to move him to the rotation, and when former Twins play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer asked Jax which role he would prefer at last week's annual Diamond Awards, Jax's answer only very slightly hedged. He sounded emotionally and mentally committed to being the high-adrenaline relief guy, and indeed, that matches what we've heard in the past about how he approaches his outings and why he doesn't like to go back out for second innings from the pen, fearing the loss of that raw edge.

Maybe, though, there's still a starter conversion to consider. The chances that Sands could emerge from the pen and become an ace starter are not as high as the same chances were with Jax. However, trying this with him would be less obviously dangerous than moving Jax, because he has been a starter more recently (16 starts in 2022) and is not as essential to the structure of the bullpen. It would also have a chance to create value in an interesting way, for a team still operating with artificially stringent limits on their spending and ability to acquire value from without. Sands is a year further from free agency than Jax, so if a conversion were successful, it would make him either a longer-term valuable piece or a more valuable trade chip.

Those are reasons why it makes sense to try it. What reasons do we have to think it would actually work?

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[NYCTK]

I don't think his stuff is good enough, but as a fellow member of the Jax-to-Starter chorus I like the idea. 

[bean5302]

Sands doesn't have plus stuff. His "stuff" in the Savant chart image is scored as 43 because he doesn't have a single plus pitch. Sands' stuff plays out of the 'pen because of his large arsenal of pitches to help keep hitters off balance in a short exposure time and added velocity.
Average = 100 or a 50 grade pitch
In my opinion, Scouting tool conversion 5pts = 10pts in Stuff+

These pitches are non-viable as a starter
Fastball 79 (35 grade)
Sinker 76 (35 grade)
--------------------------
Potentially viable as a starter if the velo didn't change, but it will.
Cutter 96 (45 grade)
Splitter 111 (55 grade)
Curve 102 (50 grade)

[Doctor Gast]

If Jax isn't considered, IMO it's not a good idea to consider Sands.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Reading this article through it seems to prove the point to me that Sands is well-served in the bullpen and the bullpen is well-served with him in it.  His stuff plays there pretty well (so far) and he is having his first real major league success there.

An additional reason to keep him in the bullpen with four years of team control left is that he is going to still be here after Jax and Duran have reached free-agency (we could re-sign them, but don't bet on it).  By creating a situation where not everyone good is leaving at once, you make your bullpen and team more sustainable than if you are trying to re-establish a bullpen every year - year after year.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Sands threw more innings than any other bullpen arm last season.

I love Sands as a reliever. If the starter has to be taken out in the 5th, he can give you 1.2 innings of quality pitching. He can also come in and pitch a lockdown 8th and be a reliable bridge to Duran. Those types of relievers are very rare and are valued very highly.

I don't see the Yankees or Tigers discussing moving Luke Weaver or Tyler Holton into starting roles. Cole Sands is not as good as either player, but when you turn a failed starter into a good-to-great relief arm, it doesn't make sense to immediately try to transition them back into a starter.

[thelanges5]

I feel like he found his role last year as a 1-2 inning middle relief or set up man. He struggled as a long reliever in 2023. Let’s let him get settled in the bullpen. 

[Western SD Fan]

Using Baseball Reference, I note that he was used in multiple innings 23 times and at least 2 innings 13 of those times.  He was the stretch guy that helped bridge the bullpen between the starter and the back end of the bullpen.  I believe Sands and Varland can become those workhorses that the bullpen needs to keep the game within reach and should be left there.  They may not make the "starter" money, but they will likely have a job longer than the starter they could become.

[mikelink45]

Why do we want to speculate on Sands and Jax when they are filling an essential role for the team.  Put Varland in the pen and use players where they contribute the most.  

We have Festa, Matthews, Morris, SWR, Raya...as starters, but in todays version of baseball the BP is almost more important than the rotation.  Keep it strong. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Why do we want to speculate on Sands and Jax when they are filling an essential role for the team.  Put Varland in the pen and use players where they contribute the most.  

We have Festa, Matthews, Morris, SWR, Raya...as starters, but in todays version of baseball the BP is almost more important than the rotation.  Keep it strong. 

Click click 

[JD-TWINS]

One of your opening statements was that Sands was probably the 2nd most effective reliever in ‘24. His fastball velocity was up in ‘24 in the role he was used in regularly.

With these things being true, there doesn’t seem to be any logical reason to move him from a role where he is thriving. “Most innings out of PEN in ‘24….”……. Same comments the past 3-4 months regarding Jax. Why?

The Team has 5 starters in place coming out of ‘24……….in addition, Paddack & Varland are very solid options as long guys - bridge guys - 5/6 games as spot starters as needed through the year, with Paddack up first in those opportunities. Headrick is also a viable 1.2 - 2.0 inning guy. These 3 mixed with Stewart & Topa  additions to Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran infers a very solid PEN.

Festa - SWR - Ryan - Ober - Lopez ……..Morris - Raya - Matthews - Lewis - Culpepper……,I realize 2-3 pitchers may get traded to try and help with a real Catcher or someone to play 1B that can hit. I don’t see any need to compromise the PEN to experiment in trying to find another starter!

[Bodie]

17 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Sands threw more innings than any other bullpen arm last season.

I love Sands as a reliever. If the starter has to be taken out in the 5th, he can give you 1.2 innings of quality pitching. He can also come in and pitch a lockdown 8th and be a reliable bridge to Duran. Those types of relievers are very rare and are valued very highly.

I don't see the Yankees or Tigers discussing moving Luke Weaver or Tyler Holton into starting roles. Cole Sands is not as good as either player, but when you turn a failed starter into a good-to-great relief arm, it doesn't make sense to immediately try to transition them back into a starter.

There is a shortage of quality starting pitching. There has always been.  Most teams would give up anything to improve that depth.  Guys with no chance of ever making it make up 90%+ of all professional ballplayers who will keep getting chances to make the leap to the next level. 

Guys who don't have the arsenal to start go to the bullpen. You can pretty much guarantee that those desperate teams have tried pretty much everything to make these failures (almost no one is drafted as a reliever, percentage wise) work out as they planned.

Before anyone brings up Santana or Liriano beginning their MLB careers in the pen, get real!  Those guys were starters, who in the parlance of the day, were getting their feet wet in the bullpen before their assumed (presumed!) move to the rotation. Neither Sands or Jax fit this mold... not even close.

Want to to see just how teets-up this can go, look back at the Jeff Reardon starting experiment.  Didn't go well at all... and I'd say Reardon had a much better chance to make it work.  He made the majors as a (poor-ish) starter and transitioned to relief. 

He performed poorly in his mid career return to the rotation. Neither quality innings, nor any quantity.  His return to relief didn't go well, as most thought he lost velocity and movement that simply didn't return upon his return to the bullpen. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Um, NO!

[Otaknam]

Sands was mostly ineffective as a starter, but was very effective in the bullpen in 24, capable of pitching multiple innings if needed.  Given the young starting pitching depth, with Matthews, Festa, Morris, and Raya, there is no compelling reason to move Sands from where he is very effective, the bullpen, back to where he struggled as a starter. The same for Jax, who is a real weapon in the bullpen. 

[LambchoP]

Barring a bunch of injuries, I think we have enough solid SP options that will be waiting for a call up in AAA. If Paddack is still our #5 then we'll have Festa, Mathews, Adams and Raya all ready to go. Not to mention Lewis, Culpeper and few others on their way too. I get that we have a full pen but with a lot of injury risk. Sands could be one of our best relievers, you don't mess with that. We all saw what CLE was able to do last year with an elite bullpen. And we have a better starting staff than they did. If we could pick up a solid lefty and maybe another higher leverage arm, I'd believe all this "best BP in baseball" talk. 

On another note, the Giants traded Taylor Rodgers to the Reds for just their 36th ranked prospect. They also got six million, meaning they got a closer type lefty for a lottery ticket and six million. This is the kind of deal we should have pounced on as it would have solidified our pen. Of course, we do nothing, as is seemingly our strategy. No nothing and hope all our players do better than last year. Sad really...

[gman]

23 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Reading this article through it seems to prove the point to me that Sands is well-served in the bullpen and the bullpen is well-served with him in it.  His stuff plays there pretty well (so far) and he is having his first real major league success there.

An additional reason to keep him in the bullpen with four years of team control left is that he is going to still be here after Jax and Duran have reached free-agency (we could re-sign them, but don't bet on it).  By creating a situation where not everyone good is leaving at once, you make your bullpen and team more sustainable than if you are trying to re-establish a bullpen every year - year after year.

Hopefully with new ownership we'll be keeping more players.

[amjgt]

It's not a perfect comparison, but this feels like the Varland situation from last year, a little to me. With the main difference being the length of success Sands has had in the Major League Bullpen (1+ years) compared to Varland being more like half a season by the start of 2024.

The Twins, it seems, wanted to just make sure that Varland as a starter was no longer viable at the beginning of 2024, giving him a rotation spot to start the year and then keeping him stretched out when he went back to AAA, before finally realizing (I think) that Varland is better suited as a reliever.

Like I said, the situations are a little different, but I could see the 2025 Twins wanting to just make sure that Cole Sands as a starter is no longer viable. 

 

[DocBauer]

He was an OK but not great Sap in college. He was a decent/solid looking SP in AA in 2021. But he was never a top 10 Twins prospects, and I believe he was in the mid to latter tweens. 

He got unfairly blasted a bit, IMO, when he debuted for the Twins. The breaking ball looked good, but he was very inconsistent. He started to flash some in 2023. I never saw him doing what he did in 2024! The velocity is up...though it remains lower than others...and the control has REALLY come around.

He's actually become a potential pen fixture that can be counted on. There's absolutely no reason to consider him as a SP any further, based on the arms available, and his pen transition. 

It's one thing, IMO, to have a former top arm fight control, or a 3rd pitch issue, and then possibly "find himself" and improve in a pen role and then MAYBE move back. It's a very different thing to have a mediocre SP go to the pen, find success, and then move them back with the expectation they'll be as good, or nearly as good, throwing 90 pitches and facing a lineup a third time, or even a second time.

Jax is where he should be. Sands is where he should be. And Varland is probably going to be in the pen, which is where he should be. A top arm in the pen in today's game is worth as much, if not more, than a mediocre back of the rotation arm.

[tony&rodney]

Sands might be interesting to another team who wants to trade for him and convert him back to a starting pitcher. That is possible. I'm not sure what team or how much value Cole Sands has to a mystery team. The Twins are pretty deep in starters and Sands would need a year or two in St. Paul, so that is not happening. Sands was really good in the pen and I'm betting he likes the MLB life better than AAA. So unless some teams calls and offers a bundle Sands is in the pen and we hope he is as good or better than he was last year.

[PatPfund]

I guess I don't mind them trying stuff in ST with Sands. (I never liked the idea with Jax, because he's slighter in build, seems prone to wearing down, and doesn't seem wild about it himself; he would know more than anyone how much extra juice came from restricting his innings.) Sands is slightly taller and 25 pounds heavier; maybe he can take the extra load. But...

I think the OP undersells the potential drop in velocity; it is likely (based on Sands' past history) to be more like 2-4 mph than 1-2. My recollection of Sands a couple years ago, is that he was best when he got ahead on offspeed/breaking stuff. If he didn't command that, and he had to throw the fastball when the batter could guess that, he got ripped. Take 2-4 off, and I can see that happening again.

[Parfigliano]

TC found a reliable 2 inning relief guy who formerly wasn't a reliable starter.  Why return to him being a starter?

[Jocko87]

Where is he going to get starts? Wichita?

On the other hand, we could be pioneers and have the first 8 man rotation, except they piggyback. Duran and Stewart close, bobs your uncle.

On a more serious note, this is a good problem to have.  He would be a nice low key trade chip to a team that sees him as a starter.  Just be prepared to see a Joe Ryan we traded away. With 4 years control he could be a nice piece for someone. I the meantime, he'd be something like 9th on the depth chart as a starter.

Dang it, I hate having a pitching pipeline.

[FargoFanMan]

Please stop this. Who’s next in the “can they be a SP” query? Duran? Buxton? Correa? Come on now.

[Mydaughterhastwins]

And what's he like with a bat in his hands.  Maybe a switch to first or a stint in center when BB needs a day.  Rocco loves the versatile types.  Seriously, no more mention of these things!!

[ashbury]

On 2/5/2025 at 5:52 PM, FargoFanMan said:

Please stop this. Who’s next in the “can they be a SP” query? Duran? Buxton? Correa? Come on now.

Mauer.  With what they paid him, he still owes them something.

[FargoFanMan]

18 hours ago, ashbury said:

Mauer.  With what they paid him, he still owes them something.

Lol! Let’s squeeze the last couple drops out of him and let him be the number 4 starter