5 Burning Questions Facing the 2025 Twins Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

This unit has a chance to be elite, and could elevate the team in profound ways with a few good breaks. Five key questions loom large for the Twins relief corps with spring training less than a month away.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Twins are hoping continuity will pay off for their bullpen in 2025. Last year they watched every outside addition flop, derailing an otherwise highly effective unit. This time around they are poised to include almost exclusively incumbents in their spring reliever mix, aside from a few of the usual minor-league signings and longshot fliers. 

Based on the guaranteed contracts they've handed out and their rare decision to add a player in the Rule 5 draft, this would seemingly project as Minnesota's eight-man Opening Day bullpen as of this moment:

• Jhoan Durán
• Griffin Jax
• Cole Sands
• Brock Stewart
• Jorge Alcalá
• Justin Topa
• Michael Tonkin
• Eiberson Castellano

In sizing up this group, and assessing the next layer of bullpen depth, a few pressing questions come to mind. But more than anything, I'm hit with a strong sense of optimism. So let's start there.

1. Is the Twins bullpen as good as projections think?
At the beginning of the offseason, FanGraphs was already projecting Minnesota as MLB's top projected bullpen (per fWAR) in 2025. More recently, their ZiPS forecast dropped and corroborated that ranking. "Though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball," wrote Dan Szymborski.

 

Projections are projections. But this does speak to the relative level of stability and proven performance boasted by the Twins bullpen compared to others. And I really cannot overstate how impactful a truly elite bullpen can be on the outcome of a season. While an extreme case, last year the Guardians won 92 games and reached the ALCS despite a lineup and starting rotation that were simply not special. Cleveland's bullpen repeatedly turned close games in their favor. We saw the opposite happen to Minnesota down the stretch.

The Twins are hoping that their starting pitching and offense can carry them to big improvement in 2025. But if this bullpen lives up to its projected potential, that will buy them a lot of margin for error on both fronts.

2. Will the Opening Day bullpen have a left-hander?
When you look at the slated eight-man bullpen above, the lack of a southpaw is one thing that sticks out. With a manager who loves to play late-game matchups, are the Twins really going to head into the season with an unorthodox all-righty staff?

It's not unthinkable. We know this team's philosophy is that, with the proper traits, right-handers can be plenty effective against lefty hitters – and the Twins have some pitchers with those traits. We also know how volatile and fluid the relief pitching unit can be. Even if all eight of the pitchers mentioned above make it to Opening Day, it's only a matter of time before spots open up for others.

With that in mind, I'm more interested to know which left-handed pitchers will be at the top of the list to get opportunities. Kody Funderburk is in that mix. Brent Headrick is still on the 40-man. Connor Prielipp could be a sneaky, high-ceiling option.

3. Which direction will Jhoan Durán go?
I didn't find Durán's 2024 season all that concerning, on its own. Yes, his career-high 3.64 ERA was underwhelming, but the secondary metrics painted a much rosier picture. He closed out the season with a 32-to-3 K/BB ratio and zero home runs allowed over 19 innings in his final 20 appearances. He was dominant as ever.

Durán managed this despite losing a full tick on his fastball, which dropped from averaging 101.8 MPH in 2023 to 100.5 MPH in 2024. Hey, that's still top-of-the-scale heat and, like I said, he was dealing for the most part. But what if he loses another tick and his average FB drops into double digits? Eventually, the reductions start to catch up in terms of their impact on an overall arsenal. 

If Durán gets back to pitching exactly the way he did last year, I'm not worried. But if his fastball shows any signs of further loss in spring training, it'll be worth keeping an eye on. 

4. Will Louie Varland be a reliever from day one?
The Twins haven't officially committed to using Varland as a reliever going forward, but it seems likely coming off his immensely rough 2024 campaign. Given what we saw out of him in late 2023, Varland has the makings of an absolute game-changer out of the bullpen, so he's a major X-factor in this unit's outlook.

However, even if the Twins do formally convert Varland into a relief role, there's no guarantee he'll open the season with the major-league club. He struggled even as a reliever during his time with the Twins last year, which was one of the more concerning aspects of his season. But hopefully a more focused and intentional build-up in the role will set him up for greater success.

Heading into camp, Varland seems to have his work cut out for him, given that he has options remaining and the guys in front of him don't. (Plus, a left-hander is probably ahead in line for any spots that opens up.) Varland's job in spring will be to pitch so well that he forces the team's hand.

5. Can Brock Stewart finally stay healthy?
This feels like the pivotal question when evaluating the Twins bullpen's true upside. A healthy Stewart, pitching like he has during his limited time on the mound in Minnesota (2.28 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 12.3 K/9) can lift the unit to another level entirely. A back end with Durán, Jax, Sands and Stewart all clicking would have the ability to take this team places. No one's matching that.

Stewart feels like the biggest stretch among the four, and he almost has to be considered more of a bonus than a planned fixture. The injuries have been constant and unrelenting. He underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery last August and there seems to be optimism it will finally resolve the pain that plagued him throughout last year. If the Twins could even get 40 innings out of Stewart it'd be a huge boost; it'd also be his highest inning total in the majors.

Let's hear from you all. What are your biggest questions as you look at the 2025 Twins bullpen?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Is there another step for Cole Sands to take? 

Is there anything there with Justin Topa if he is healthy?

Will they trade someone like Duran to add a piece or pieces to other spots on the roster?

If I play MLB the show, and make Connor Prielipp a 99 as a setup man, will the Twins win the next 5 world series? :)

[D.C Twins]

If Brock Stewart says healthy for a year... this bullpen could be elite... Peak Brock is a game changer. 

[LambchoP]

I think Varland needs to be designated a full-time reliever this year. He's had plenty of chances at being a starter. Put him in the pen at AAA to see if he earns a call up. Canterino and Prelipp could be dark horse weapons for our pen if they can finally get healthy. Topa is a wildcard, but ultimately I like our pen, despite the lack of a proven lefty.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Outside of our top 3, everyone else is a big question mark due to health concerns or age. I hope they have several back up plans in place.

[chpettit19]

For what it's worth, in his interview on Inside Twins Jeremy Zoll said they were keeping Varland as a starter. That can obviously change quickly, but as of 2 weeks ago that appears to be their plan. I'd put him in the pen as a 2 inning guy, but it sounds like they're giving him another shot to start.

This pen certainly has the chance to be pretty special. If they can replace the Jackson, Okert, Irvin, Richards innings with innings from guys with significantly higher ceilings and better stuff they could/should take another step. Health for a few is still a major concern, but they have more youngsters who can come up blowing smoke to replace them now than they did in previous years.

I have no problem with the "collect a lot of options and see who works" approach to the pen, as long as the options you're collecting have options and aren't 1 hit wonder veterans with below average stuff. The Twins are starting to collect more and more options with top end stuff. If they keep converting a failed starter or 2 a year into a pen weapon they'll be just fine. 

[NYCTK]

Regarding Brock Stewart, I frankly don't see why projection systems love a man that was plucked out of indy baseball 5 years ago and has since gone on to pitch to a total of 300 batters with a 1.25 WHIP. 

Strikeouts are a great skill to have, but if you can't do anything else as a pitcher what value are you to a team? 

So, for question 1, no, Brock Stewart is almost certainly not going to pitch 58 innings next season. And if he somehow does, it's not going to be with a 3.30 FIP. 

[Brandon]

Canterino, Preilipp, Varland, Duarte, and Henriquez oh and Blewett should all be ready to contribute. The more I look at our pen options the less likely our rule 5 pick sticks.  Or he won’t have a long Leash.  This depth is what really makes our pen so good.  

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For what it's worth, in his interview on Inside Twins Jeremy Zoll said they were keeping Varland as a starter.

That they insist upon stretching out Varland but refuse to allow Jax another chance to start tells me that this organization has no idea what they're doing. 

Shocking that they've not had any sustained success since 2010. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That they insist upon stretching out Varland but refuse to allow Jax another chance to start tells me that this organization has no idea what they're doing. 

Shocking that they've not had any sustained success since 2010. 

I don't understand keeping Varland as a starter as he seems to have been, or will shortly be, passed up by younger prospects already reaching AAA. I've seen enough and would put him in the pen. But I'd need to understand why they aren't trying Jax as a starter before I say whether I think it's a good choice or not. There are very legitimate reasons why some guys aren't good as starters and are good as relievers. If they have good reason to believe he wouldn't succeed as a starter then I have no problem with him staying in the pen where he's one of the best arms in the league. 

Cleveland had the best pen in the league last year. I haven't seen anything about them moving Clase, Gaddis, or Smith to their rotation where they need more help than the Twins do. I don't think you'd find many people who say the Guardians don't know what they're doing with pitching. Clase and Smith are every bit the pitchers Jax is so why wouldn't they put them in the rotation? I don't know why Jax isn't going to get a shot to start, but there could be a very reasonable answer. Otherwise, you could say the same thing about every top reliever in the game. The A's could certainly use somebody like Mason Miller in their rotation, have there been any rumors about him going there? He was a starter up until last year, so moving him back would be much easier than moving Jax.

[twinzcynic]

5 questions for the most elite bullpen in baseball? Nonsense! We are so elite, did you see that our fangraphs WAR (fangraphs WAR is based off of what theoretically "should" happen instead of what actually happens...) was the best?! I for one think this has the makings of an all time bullpen! I don't care about the WPA, the stranded runners rate, or the possibility of regressing to the mean, I only care about fangraphs projection!

[sweetmusicviola16]

Today LAD is signing Kirby Yates. Yesterday Tanner Scott. I guess they are signing a bunch of guys and seeing what works.

Scavengers can't be as fussy though. Zoll needs to be ringing the phone off the hook and seeing who the Dodgers will be moving to make room for the three most recent signings, including Sasaki.

[NYCTK]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If they have good reason to believe he wouldn't succeed as a starter then I have no problem with him staying in the pen where he's one of the best arms in the league. 

I agree with this. I just doubt that they have any reason he wouldn't translate as a starter and just want the bullpen depth. But that's me defaulting to this organization being poorly operated. 

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Cleveland had the best pen in the league last year. I haven't seen anything about them moving Clase, Gaddis, or Smith to their rotation where they need more help than the Twins do.

Interestingly, only Gaddis was ever considered a starting pitcher prospect in their system. The other two were either already RP when they entered the system or immediately converted. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I agree with this. I just doubt that they have any reason he wouldn't translate as a starter and just want the bullpen depth. But that's me defaulting to this organization being poorly operated. 

Interestingly, only Gaddis was ever considered a starting pitcher prospect in their system. The other two were either already RP when they entered the system or immediately converted. 

I have no idea what their thoughts are on him being able to succeed as a starter. If his pitches are more successful now because he's a max effort guy that'd be enough reason for me to keep him in the pen. Because he couldn't be a max effort guy in the rotation. I'm also ok with them just deciding that he's more useful in the pen as that's where he's needed more. Whether it's the same decision I'd make or not, it's a legitimate reason.

Yeah, Cleveland targeted Clase and Smith as relievers and just let them do their things. They made the decision much earlier on them than the Twins did with Jax and I think that skews our view a little. If Jax had been a reliever since A ball we probably aren't having this conversation. But he got to fail in the bigs as a starter first then transition. I don't know if there's a right or wrong way on that, but it is interesting to see Cleveland seemingly target high velo, nasty stuff guys and just put them in the pen from the jump. James Karinchak being another one who was very good before injuries derailed him.

[Nick Nelson]

46 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

5 questions for the most elite bullpen in baseball? Nonsense! We are so elite, did you see that our fangraphs WAR (fangraphs WAR is based off of what theoretically "should" happen instead of what actually happens...) was the best?! I for one think this has the makings of an all time bullpen! I don't care about the WPA, the stranded runners rate, or the possibility of regressing to the mean, I only care about fangraphs projection!

If you want to dwell endlessly on what happened last year instead of what is likely to happen this year, go for it. WPA and strand rate are not predictive from year to year. I'm not sure what you mean by "regressing to the mean" since that's baked into these numbers.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Regarding Brock Stewart, I frankly don't see why projection systems love a man that was plucked out of indy baseball 5 years ago and has since gone on to pitch to a total of 300 batters with a 1.25 WHIP. 

Strikeouts are a great skill to have, but if you can't do anything else as a pitcher what value are you to a team? 

So, for question 1, no, Brock Stewart is almost certainly not going to pitch 58 innings next season. And if he somehow does, it's not going to be with a 3.30 FIP. 

I would be shocked if he stays healthy for 28 innings 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

If Brock Stewart says healthy for a year... this bullpen could be elite... Peak Brock is a game changer. 

Peak Brock is one guy that needs the rest of the depth to make it work.  I just can’t see a path to a Peak Brock that also includes a peak workload.  If they feel like they need him in 2 and 3 run games it will have an expiration date. 

[PatPfund]

We were rated at the top last year, but injuries and and churn in the rotation (we were down to Lopez, Ober, and 3 rookies for something like a third of the season) washed out much of the impact of decent relief pitching. 2025 starts with a rotation that has at least one starter under a IP cap (Ryan), and another under Severe Injury Watch and an IP cap (Paddack), plus one that wore down last year (SWR). The top two replacements by 2024 usage (Festa and Matthews) likely have in-game and season inning caps as well.

So my top two burning questions are: 1. Will rotation churn wipe out the bullpen again? 2. Can Rocco master the use of a long reliever (something his tinker-constantly impulses have pretty much prevented so far, but something a stretched out Varland might be good for)? (And OK, health, but I'd put Topa in there as much a Stewart.)

[stringer bell]

Yeah, I don't expect Stewart or Topa to be healthy throughout the season. That is too much to ask. It makes sense to have multiple options because there are fragile arms there, but if not overworked, they can thrive. I suspect that many of the head-shaking bullpen decisions all managers make have to do with the health of guys and that this is particularly true of Baldelli. 

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Regarding Brock Stewart, I frankly don't see why projection systems love a man that was plucked out of indy baseball 5 years ago and has since gone on to pitch to a total of 300 batters with a 1.25 WHIP. 

Strikeouts are a great skill to have, but if you can't do anything else as a pitcher what value are you to a team? 

So, for question 1, no, Brock Stewart is almost certainly not going to pitch 58 innings next season. And if he somehow does, it's not going to be with a 3.30 FIP. 

I have no idea what you're looking at because watching Stewart the past two seasons, his stuff is incredible. He was dominant early last season until he got hurt, and his overall numbers look bad because of his 3 July outings where he clearly wasn't healthy. I'm okay with saying he can't be counted on for a full season, but healthy Stewart will be a late-inning reliever with a 3.30 FIP or better.

[old nurse]

20 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

We were rated at the top last year, but injuries and and churn in the rotation (we were down to Lopez, Ober, and 3 rookies for something like a third of the season) washed out much of the impact of decent relief pitching. 2025 starts with a rotation that has at least one starter under a IP cap (Ryan), and another under Severe Injury Watch and an IP cap (Paddack), plus one that wore down last year (SWR). The top two replacements by 2024 usage (Festa and Matthews) likely have in-game and season inning caps as well.

So my top two burning questions are: 1. Will rotation churn wipe out the bullpen again? 2. Can Rocco master the use of a long reliever (something his tinker-constantly impulses have pretty much prevented so far, but something a stretched out Varland might be good for)? (And OK, health, but I'd put Topa in there as much a Stewart.)

Ryan Yarborough and Jose Urena were the about the only 2 pitchers used as multi innings pitchers. While other pitchers have thrown multiple innings upon occasion, there isn’t anyone else making a living that way. Nobody has signed either of these two pitchers. Max effort relievers only pitch so many innings. These 2 are PTC. These pages were filled with comments on pitch to contact pitchers. There has been already enough stated to understand why they are still unsigned 

[jmlease1]

I'm not expecting both Topa and Stewart to be on the active roster from Opening Day; neither one has enough of a track record of health that they should be counted on for significant roles. if we get anything from them, it's a bonus, potentially a big one as they are talented.

the good thing is, we have a good bullpen without them. Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala look like a very nice core and while I'm not super enthusiastic about Tonkin, he is well-suited to a middle relief spot. Hopefully, Castellano can be the 2 inning middle relief guy that throws once or twice a week to bridge a short start and keeps the bullpen from needing 4-5 guys most nights to get through a game, He's an interesting talent, but unproven.

Since I'd bet on either Topa or Stewart not being ready for Opening Day (I'll bet on Topa having knee inflammation or something if I need to pick), there's still a slot open in my mind. I'd either go with Varland (who has been passed by SWR, Festa, and Matthews already) or send Paddack to the 'pen if there's no moves by Opening Day. Better would be to sign a LHP who doesn't get killed by RH hitters.

The bullpen is good. I'm higher on Alcala than some (including the team it seems like) and as long as Jax and Duran are the firemen it's going to shorten a lot of games.

[TwinsDr2021]

The only real questions are, is this the best bullpen of the decade, this century or ever?

[JD-TWINS]

Prielipp, Canterino, ………Stewart ……..Topa are all health risks, potentially, big time.

Stewart should be managed and kept on watch (slowly) to utilize his capabilities in August - October.

Topa seems or seemed to be past his leg issue as of September ’24. I expect him to have a normal season.

Prielipp & Canterino are guys that need to throw 40 innings of ball and remain healthy before anyone considers them for The Show. No real confidence that either will be able to pull off good health. Both “could” help in August - September.

My Opening Day PEN is as shown after trading Duran & Tonkin ……Rule 5 guy is either rolled into a trade to acquire him with flexibility or DFA’d:

Varland - Headrick - Paddack - Topa - Henriquez - Alcala - Sands - Jax ………(still very talented) I think trading Duran with others could/should allow them to get a very needed solution at C or 1B.

[NYCTK]

45 minutes ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

I have no idea what you're looking at because watching Stewart the past two seasons, his stuff is incredible. He was dominant early last season until he got hurt, and his overall numbers look bad because of his 3 July outings where he clearly wasn't healthy. I'm okay with saying he can't be counted on for a full season, but healthy Stewart will be a late-inning reliever with a 3.30 FIP or better.

I have watched him, and he has indeed looked very good in short spurts. The problem is how short those spurts are and if there's any reason to believe THIS time he'll be healthy. And I don't think there is. 

Maybe he learns how to actually take care of his body? But then we'd expect to see a huge drop-off in production. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A bullpen's performance might be the hardest area to predict.  Most RP are uneven throughout their career. Having a strong BP one year does not mean that same BP will be good next year.

On paper, the Twins BP looks promising.  But as seems to be the Twins mantra right now, seeing success from unproven/unknown individuals and staying healthy will be big.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

... I'm also ok with them just deciding that he's more useful in the pen as that's where he's needed more. ....

Agreed.

I'm guessing that neither Lewis nor Lee prefers moving to second, but it seems likely that one will do that, based on what the needs are.

TD articles/comments have been complaining that MLB Network didn't give Jax the "Top 10" label that he deserved. When looking at where the "proven" depth is on the roster, I'd rather have Jax as a stud setup/back up closer than as a potential 4/3/2/IL starter.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

Canterino, Preilipp, Varland, Duarte, and Henriquez oh and Blewett should all be ready to contribute. The more I look at our pen options the less likely our rule 5 pick sticks.  Or he won’t have a long Leash.  This depth is what really makes our pen so good.  

You were the first to mention Henriquez. He has no options left. If he is healthy and reasonably effective in spring training, I think he will make the team. If, miracle of miracles, everyone would make it through spring training healthy and with some modicum of success, Henriquez would get the nod over Topa because of their option status. Similarly, given their liking to keep all options open, I think they will give the Rule 5 pick every opportunity to succeed. 

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Prielipp, Canterino, ………Stewart ……..Topa are all health risks, potentially, big time.

Stewart should be managed and kept on watch (slowly) to utilize his capabilities in August - October.

Topa seems or seemed to be past his leg issue as of September ’24. I expect him to have a normal season.

Prielipp & Canterino are guys that need to throw 40 innings of ball and remain healthy before anyone considers them for The Show. No real confidence that either will be able to pull off good health. Both “could” help in August - September.

My Opening Day PEN is as shown after trading Duran & Tonkin ……Rule 5 guy is either rolled into a trade to acquire him with flexibility or DFA’d:

Varland - Headrick - Paddack - Topa - Henriquez - Alcala - Sands - Jax ………(still very talented) I think trading Duran with others could/should allow them to get a very needed solution at C or 1B.

I also feel Duran is a trade candidate. I've got to believe he is worth a ton to someone like the Dodgers or Yankees. We've rarely sold high on anyone in the Falvey years so this would be unusual for him. This would move Jax into the closer role, which probably satisfies his agent who is likely the one pushing hard to switch to starting to make more money. From what we know, Jax didn't throw a fuss about staying in the pen. Same storyline served Glen Perkins very well. Jax has the chance to become a top tier closer.

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Maybe he learns how to actually take care of his body?

I don't think there is "take care of his body", he has to go all out or he isn't good enough to be in the majors. So it really is only a matter of time before he most likely gets injured again.