5 Burning Questions Facing the 2025 Twins Bullpen

[thelanges5]

Just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I’m not finding much on Topa and Stewart. Wondering if they’ll even be ready for opening day. Could be Henriquez and Fundy to start the season?

[IndianaTwin]

9 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I’m not finding much on Topa and Stewart. Wondering if they’ll even be ready for opening day. Could be Henriquez and Fundy to start the season?

I'm guessing they'll all be reporting to spring training in the "best shape of (their) life." 😀

But seriously, is the first year we've had for a while of entering spring training with no known 60-day IL moves pending? 

[Doctor Gast]

I have doubts about Topa not ending up on the IL before the start of the season. I'm optimistic about Stewart & Alcala if managed right. I disagree with the Twins being stubborn about making Varland a starter to begin the season. He needs to be told to get ready to be the 1st one called up if there's an injury if he performed well in spring training as a RP. Prielipp & Canterino are our aces in the hole & need to be well-managed to get them to MLB. I'm a believer.

[old nurse]

5 items burned to a crisp 

1. Can Stewart make it to 20 IP

2. Can Topa make it to 20 IP

3. How can you call the Pohlads cheap when they are giving away money to these 2

4. Is a good, cheap left handed reliever really just a figment of somebody’s vivid imagination?

5. In this day and age of baseball if a pitcher isn’t good enough to be a starter, how does that player become a multi inning reliever with the same pitches? 

[DocBauer]

I don't like Castellano jumping from AA to take one of the valuable pen spots ans turning it in to a "stash" spot for an arm that's going to eat innings in blowouts once every 10-14 days. We've seen them do this with Sands, and others, and it usually just wastes a pen spot. And isn't Tonkin already best suited for 2+ IP every few days?

If they really like him, they should trade for him.

That frees up a spot for a LH, or for Henriquez to stick, at least initially, if he has a good ST. 

Not sure I see both Tonkin and Topa on the opening day roster, but it could happen. Since Topa has options I can see him begin at AAA. It may not be "fair" but it's a way to manage depth early in the year. Same with Varland who ABSOLUTELY should be in the pen at this point. He just doesn't have the ability to consistently go 5 good innings, much less more. But he's usually looked good when throwing 1-3. I'd have him as a RP immediately, and toss him 2 IP every time out, but he also could start in AAA initially.

Keeping guys without options and having arms that might be better at AAA with options isn't how I'd like to build a pen. But I do see the method to the madness early in the season. 

[NYCTK]

18 minutes ago, old nurse said:

3. How can you call the Pohlads cheap when they are giving away money to these 2

Super easily. Not even a second thought. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Super easily. Not even a second thought. 

Did the blowing over your head mess your hair?

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, PatPfund said:

We were rated at the top last year, but injuries and and churn in the rotation (we were down to Lopez, Ober, and 3 rookies for something like a third of the season) washed out much of the impact of decent relief pitching. 2025 starts with a rotation that has at least one starter under a IP cap (Ryan), and another under Severe Injury Watch and an IP cap (Paddack), plus one that wore down last year (SWR). The top two replacements by 2024 usage (Festa and Matthews) likely have in-game and season inning caps as well.

So my top two burning questions are: 1. Will rotation churn wipe out the bullpen again? 2. Can Rocco master the use of a long reliever (something his tinker-constantly impulses have pretty much prevented so far, but something a stretched out Varland might be good for)? (And OK, health, but I'd put Topa in there as much a Stewart.)

Why would Ryan be under an inning cap? Also, why would Festa or Matthews have inning caps?

[jorgenswest]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Topa seems or seemed to be past his leg issue as of September ’24. I expect him to have a normal season.

What would a normal season look like from Topa? Is it the 2023 season or any of his others? 2023 appears to be an outlier to me.

I will be watching his velocity this spring. It was down last spring before the injury. If his sinker and cutter are at his 2023 levels I will be encouraged. If not, I hope they use an option and see if he can work his way back. 

 

[DocBauer]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

What would a normal season look like from Topa? Is it the 2023 season or any of his others? 2023 appears to be an outlier to me.

I will be watching his velocity this spring. It was down last spring before the injury. If his sinker and cutter are at his 2023 levels I will be encouraged. If not, I hope they use an option and see if he can work his way back. 

So far, 2023 is his outlier. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have some juice for a solid season. 

While it was only a few innings, he did seem to look healthy. One would hope on offseason rest will have his knee more sound for 2025. But with an option still left...or is it 2?...I wouldn't be surprised if he starts in St Paul initially.

I don't know that I see him with 69 IP and a .261 ERA again, but what about a 3.50-3.75 ERA and about 50 IP? I could see a healthy Topa doing that. Problem is, the pen might be in flux the first month or so until it settles a bit. Are they really going to stash Castellano all season on the ML roster as an occasional arm in blowouts? Tonkin and Topa are sort of the same pitcher, a solid 2 IP middle man, does Henriquez look good enough to be kept initially? 

There's a lot of depth, but some of the guys don't have options. So there might be some mixing and matching to begin with.

[PatPfund]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would Ryan be under an inning cap? Also, why would Festa or Matthews have inning caps?

Because Ryan is coming off a shoulder injury, and barely pitched the last third of the season; pitchers are often capped under those conditions (even assuming he is as effective and doesn't re-injure himself). Because Festa (by usage as mentioned) threw more than 5.0 innings exactly once in 13 starts and one bulk appearance (not for lack of pitches; he is terribly inefficient, which is a known issue with him). Matthews? Because he never made it past 5.0 even once in his 9 starts, and five times failed to get that far. (The Twins went 3-6 in those starts, while Zebby compiled a 6.69 ERA, and looked talented, but unready for MLB.)

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

Because Ryan is coming off a shoulder injury, and barely pitched the last third of the season; pitchers are often capped under those conditions (even assuming he is as effective and doesn't re-injure himself). Because Festa (by usage as mentioned) threw more than 5.0 innings exactly once in 13 starts and one bulk appearance (not for lack of pitches; he is terribly inefficient, which is a known issue with him). Matthews? Because he never made it past 5.0 even once in his 9 starts, and five times failed to get that far. (The Twins went 3-6 in those starts, while Zebby compiled a 6.69 ERA, and looked talented, but unready for MLB.)

Joe Ryan threw 135 innings last year. Festa had 124.2. And Zebby pitched 134,2. None of them should have inning restrictions next year. 

There were only 61 pitchers in all the major leagues last year who threw at least 160 innings. They should all be able to add 30+ innings to their workload without any issue. And at that point they're all throwing a regular MLB starter's workload. There's no reason at all to put artificial caps on their innings.

Zebby or Festa not being good enough to throw deeper into games or earn more MLB starts is far different than having an inning cap. They'll all be allowed to go as far as their talent takes them. The only inning caps they'll have will be determined by how well they pitch. The Twins aren't going to manage any of them based on the number of innings they're throwing, just how well they're throwing. They will all be allowed to throw a full starter's workload of 160 innings if they pitch well enough to do it.

[Pykkman]

Something has to happen here.   Doubt they let a young pitcher walk? 

[PatPfund]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Joe Ryan threw 135 innings last year. Festa had 124.2. And Zebby pitched 134,2. None of them should have inning restrictions next year. 

There were only 61 pitchers in all the major leagues last year who threw at least 160 innings. They should all be able to add 30+ innings to their workload without any issue. And at that point they're all throwing a regular MLB starter's workload. There's no reason at all to put artificial caps on their innings.

Zebby or Festa not being good enough to throw deeper into games or earn more MLB starts is far different than having an inning cap. They'll all be allowed to go as far as their talent takes them. The only inning caps they'll have will be determined by how well they pitch. The Twins aren't going to manage any of them based on the number of innings they're throwing, just how well they're throwing. They will all be allowed to throw a full starter's workload of 160 innings if they pitch well enough to do it.

We'll see about Ryan. The other two were never claimed by me to have a cap other than by useage history, but the reason doesn't matter. If you can only average 5 innings (or less) that is major innings for the bullpen to cover. If multiple starters are doing that regularly, that is a problem. You left them out in your comments, but SWR made 28 starts (and essentially saved the year for a while), but he averaged under 5 IP per start with a marked weardown at the end (he never made it to 5.0 IP after August 21), and Paddack, well... is Paddack. You don't have to agree, but my main burning bullpen question remains as I stated.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

We'll see about Ryan. The other two were never claimed by me to have a cap other than by useage history, but the reason doesn't matter. If you can only average 5 innings (or less) that is major innings for the bullpen to cover. If multiple starters are doing that regularly, that is a problem. You left them out in your comments, but SWR made 28 starts (and essentially saved the year for a while), but he averaged under 5 IP per start with a marked weardown at the end (he never made it to 5.0 IP after August 21), and Paddack, well... is Paddack. You don't have to agree, but my main burning bullpen question remains as I stated.

I left SWR out because you didn't claim he'd have an innings limit so I didn't question that. And I agree with Paddack so I didn't question that. And your statement about Festa and Zebby's usage was about them being the next 2 most used pitchers in 2024. Or at least that's how it reads. "The top 2 replacements by 2024 usage." Then you just said they'd have in game and season caps. Sorry if I misunderstood that.

Starters don't go deep in games anymore. The question of covering a lot of innings with the pen is an MLB question as a whole. So, sure, it's a question, but its a question nearly every team in baseball has been answering for years. Only 61 guys threw even 160 innings last year. That's an average of 2 per team at just 160 innings. Averaging 5 innings a start for 30 starts gets you to 150 innings. 32 starts is a normal 5 man rotation and thats your 160 innings right there. Welcome to baseball in the 2020s. This is just what starting rotations are right now.

[Fatbat]

There are serious questions but they have real answers. 
lets go with Stewarts surgery fixing his shoulder and  he is lights out all season, WHoa!!! 
Castellano is servicable, Cool! We never have enough pitching. Henriquez takes a step up and sticks around all season. Really!!! Topa is healthy and back to ‘23 type stuff. Geeeezus!!!!
Tonkin flys under the radar because the above guys are doing their thing.  Hmmmmm!!! 
Sands pounds the zone and  no one wants it more than he does. Ooooooof!!!

Jax and Duran trade 9th innings day after day.  Yada Yada!!!!

That's the upside! Glass is full with 5 more guys knocking at the MLB door.  Its not a sure thing but there is a chance that we actually have an elite bullpen.  Its also very likely 5 things will go wrong with the best case scenario.  But this year, we have real options  in the pipeline. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What would a normal season look like from Topa? Is it the 2023 season or any of his others? 2023 appears to be an outlier to me.

I will be watching his velocity this spring. It was down last spring before the injury. If his sinker and cutter are at his 2023 levels I will be encouraged. If not, I hope they use an option and see if he can work his way back. 

 

His velocity being down in Spring of ‘24 (Topa) is assumed to be because his knee was jacked up. Tough to max out without a good base. They liked what they saw after his knee was better in September. His couple outings looked good to me. I expect good things from him if his knee is healed up.

Should we expect Sands to backslide to previous years or be optimistic after his best year?

[stringer bell]

I guess I fall in the Topa camp if he is healthy. If healthy, he should be the third or fourth-best option in the 'pen and that would be a good thing. Sands and Alcalá after that (if they are effective) would make the bullpen a real asset and really deep, as well. 

It's prudent to expect and allow for injuries, especially to guys with extensive injury histories. I sincerely have my doubts that Stewart will ever be able to log more than 30 or so innings and Topa has only had one injury-free season in his career. Alcalá missed the bulk of two years, although he was mostly healthy in 2024. 

My feeling is that at any one time the Twins have four of these six healthy and available, they'll be all right. Of course, the true late-inning guys (Durán and Jax) are more vital than the others.

[jmlease1]

20 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A bullpen's performance might be the hardest area to predict.  Most RP are uneven throughout their career. Having a strong BP one year does not mean that same BP will be good next year.

On paper, the Twins BP looks promising.  But as seems to be the Twins mantra right now, seeing success from unproven/unknown individuals and staying healthy will be big.

I think that's right, and it's why the Twins haven't been investing a lot into the bullpen: too many RP aren't consistent year over year. I think strategically we're better off developing bullpen weapons internally (converting starters with good stuff but can't make the leap from AAA to MLB makes tons of sense) than throwing significant money at FA. Duran and Jax have been consistently good (even if Duran has been on a downturn), Alcala has been good except for 2022-2023, when he was hurt/recovering, so that bodes well for his ability to repeat.

Sands is the biggest question mark for regression: he was much much better last season than 2023 in MLB and was far better than ever at limiting free passes. That said, he also looked a lot more like the guy who pitched well in the bullpen in AAA in 2023. So which is more fluky, the small sample size from 2023 in MLB when he was still transitioning to relieving, or the excellent work in 2024? I think  this season will tell us a lot about whether Sands will be a consistent reliever or Just Another Guy. but he's in his prime with good stuff, so there's reason to be positive.

Health is going to be really important: Cleveland's BP was really healthy last season especially at the top and it made a massive impact for them. Twins are unlikely to have that kind of health with guys like Topa & Stewart in the mix, so their depth will matter more. That may be why they decided to bring back Tonkin: they think he's likely to be consistent in those middle innings while they sort out a few of the other guys.

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

His velocity being down in Spring of ‘24 (Topa) is assumed to be because his knee was jacked up. Tough to max out without a good base. They liked what they saw after his knee was better in September. His couple outings looked good to me. I expect good things from him if his knee is healed up.

Should we expect Sands to backslide to previous years or be optimistic after his best year?

Topa’s velocity on his primary pitch (sinker) was 92 at the end of the season and reported in the 90-92 range in his rehab. His velocity was 95 in Seattle the previous season. Injuries cause decline and age causes decline. I am hopeful but not optimistic on Topa. If his velocity on the sinker is 95 this spring I will be optimistic. 

Sands went the opposite direction with velocity adding 2 mph to his fastball. I think that is real so I am optimistic. Relievers can be one year mirages but often there is a clue in their BABiP or their ERA estimators are not in line with ERA. In Sands case his BABIP from last year is sustainable and his ERA estimators were in line with his actual ERA.