We've Been Underselling Austin Martin's Upside—But So Has He - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

There are some important ways in which we've underrated the Twins' young utility man. It will only matter, though, if he has the courage to take a developmental leap of faith.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

 

In 257 plate appearances during his rookie campaign of 2024, Austin Martin batted .253/.318/.352. He was a versatile stopgap for a team that encountered numerous injury issues, but he didn't exactly seize the chances he got. The stat line he posted could have been acceptable, had he been a solid defensive center fielder or left-side infield man, but in reality, he barely acquitted himself with the glove even in left field, and he was good (rather than great) at second base. Underpowered, he ended up with a glove-first player's offensive profile and a defensive role that demanded more of a bat-first talent.

I did have a bunch of fun with the statistical quirk of Martin coming around to score practically every time he reached base, back in early August, but by season's end, he was within a hair's breadth of average in terms of actual baserunning value. He wasn't a very good player, really—not in his first trip around the circuit. He managed just one home run, and 20 total extra-base hits. He pulled the ball some, and he hit some line drives, but he didn't truly elevate much, and he didn't the ball very hard.

Let's get happy for a minute, though, before drilling more into his biggest weakness. The good news is, Martin made better swing decisions than almost anyone in baseball in his rookie year. According to Statcast, his swing rate was nearly 70% in the strike zone and just 18.4% outside it. That's remarkably good plate discipline; it means he's neither giving pitchers free strikes nor helping them out when they can't find the plate. Looking at the specific places where he swung, you can see how he generated so many batted balls at line-drive launch angles, too. He knew what he was looking for, and was excellent at seizing upon it when it came.

Martin was also quite good at making contact within the strike zone. He wanted that ball up and over the middle or inner third of the plate, and he missed a bit more often if you hit your spots low and away, but he was no easy punchout.

Combine these traits, and Martin was quite good in terms of strikeout and walk rate, especially for a guy just getting his feet beneath him. He fanned in just 18.3% of his trips to the plate, in a league striking out almost 23% of the time, and he walked in 7.8% of those plate appearances—despite pitchers filling up the zone to the tune of a 52.9% share of all pitches, against a league average of 48.7%. If hitting were all about knowing when to swing and finding the ball with the bat when you do, Martin would have been an All-Star.

That's now what hitting is all about, these days.

 

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[CRF]

Neem? 

[Vanimal46]

Does anyone actually proofread articles and headlines before clicking submit? 

[Schmoeman5]

13 minutes ago, CRF said:

Neem? 

It's a tree. So I'm not sure here either???

[Schmoeman5]

We neem to stop umbersetting Austin Martin 

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

We neem to stop umbersetting Austin Martin 

You meant Umbesetting:

Umbeset is an archaic or dialectal verb that means to ostruct, block, or act detrimentally toward someone or something. It is primarily used in Scotland.

[bean5302]

It's obviously "Been" but yeah, didn't know if it was some trendy new word for a second...

Martin has little valuable upside left from what I've seen. I'd have liked to see him play 2B more last year to see if he could handle the position at the MLB level because that seems his most likely path to playing time. Martin's lack of ability to square up balls results in poor exit velocities and minimal power projection, but he's serviceable at the plate due to his disicipline. Unfortunately, his defensive instincts leave quite a bit to be desired. 

I think Martin's likely ceiling is a 1 WAR utility guy.

[Linus]

Martin is a great illustration of why defense matters. If he was a legit back up CF or fielding whiz second baseman you could live with the limited bat. He can’t do those things so in order to be useful in LF for example he has to hit way more than he’s shown. Could he improve on both sides enough to bridge the gap?  I hope so as he is the style of player the Twins could use. Am I betting my pension on it? Nope. 
The Twins seem to have a lot of players like this. Hmmmmm wonder why their fielding is subpar.  

[CRF]

I liked it better when it was "Neem". 

[ziggy]

35 minutes ago, CRF said:

 Martin was superb at meeting the ball squarely. 

 It sure does not sound that way to me. Weak hits and contact was what I witnessed.

He just seemed overmatched to me and what's worse was his answer to a reporters question when he said something along the lines of "I knew I could play at this level and I'm doing it".

If the Twins were not trying to resurrect Calvin Griffith Ball Martin would still be in the minors. 

I guess I was hoping for better from a number 5 overall pick. 

[ashbury]

Austin Nopower.  No, baby, nooo.

In just about every aspect of his game, I see a player lacking in confidence.  He doesn't throw with confidence, he doesn't swing with confidence.  He looks more concerned about not making mistakes.  I don't know what the coaches can do with him at this point.  This analysis does a nice job of highlighting a major weakness, with its informative charts on swing speed and angle.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Does anyone actually proofread articles and headlines before clicking submit? 

You mean with sentences like "That's now what hitting is all about, these days," which probably reverses what the author actually intended?

Oh well,  I cna ytpe 300 wrods pre mniuet!

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

You mean with sentences like "That's now what hitting is all about, these days," which probably reverses what the author actually intended?

Oh well,  I cna ytpe 300 wrods pre mniuet!

Minuet. So nice that you are pointing toe at people rather than fingers

[DJL44]

This actually suggests he has more downside than upside. If he wasn't chasing and was making consistent contact, then this past season probably was his upside.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Austin Nopower.  No, baby, nooo.

In just about every aspect of his game, I see a player lacking in confidence.  He doesn't throw with confidence, he doesn't swing with confidence.  He looks more concerned about not making mistakes.  I don't know what the coaches can do with him at this point.  This analysis does a nice job of highlighting a major weakness, with its informative charts on swing speed and angle.

This is exactly what I saw last season. I saw a player that didn't know who and what he was.

I'm not picking on anyone, but I never understood so many posters proclaiming the idea that Martin was ready for regular ML playing time after a good AFL and barely a half season of good production at the AAA level in 2023.

There was a reason the Twins were trying to alter his swing and approach to add a little more power to his game. It wasn't about being a HR hitter. It was about being able to hit the ball HARD for singles, doubles, and yes, SOME HR power.

I'm confounded by reports that if he didn't stick to the INF, he was a "natural" OF. Except for a couple good plays, i saw a poor OF who couldn't read the ball off the bat. As a 2B, I saw a mix of a couple good plays, some really bad ones, and was average at best

The graphics and explanations tell me he CAN see the zone and make solid contact. But he's got to find an ability to DRIVE the ball better, or he's just not going to make it. Defense isn't just athleticism. It's recognition of the ball off the bat. If he can learn that, he's got a future as a utility player defensively. If he can't he's a 2B only who has a TON of talent that will quickly burry him unless his bat suddenly exploded.

I'm hoping his defense improves big time through hard work. I'm hoping his approach and confidence takes another step forward and he starts to drive the ball and make things happen.

I understand his development has been a bit unusual. But at some point, his natural ability SHOULD take hold and start to show through. And a disappointing rookie season shouldn't be held against him. But he's just got to show SOMETHING in 2025 to prove his draft status, and brief AFL and half season in AAA in 2023 wasn't an illusion. 

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

In just about every aspect of his game, I see a player lacking in confidence.  He doesn't throw with confidence, he doesn't swing with confidence.  He looks more concerned about not making mistakes.  I don't know what the coaches can do with him at this point.  This analysis does a nice job of highlighting a major weakness, with its informative charts on swing speed and angle.

This is his greatest chance at a serviceable major league career.  If he was functional at all other levels, the lack of confidence would indicate there is something there to tap.  It can unlock both defense and offense. 

I don't see stud upside, but he was never that player type.  He was a top 5 pick because he was just a pretty darn good ballplayer everywhere. He has to play at full speed to make that work. 

Make mistakes at full speed.  We can't be forgetting how many outs there are. 

In many ways, he is emblematic of the entire failing last year.  A little too much assuming and not enough of the grinding that got us here. 

[Doctor Gast]

I didn't read the whole article but it's great to see stats that finally lined up what I saw in the MiLB., thanks Matthew for writing this article. Throughout MiLB he was told, he was a power SS, In MLB, Margot was not a viable CF sub he also took up a valuable roster spot so we couldn't call up Keirsey so Martin we'll throw you into the mess. We need to baby Margot so guess what Martin you get the crappy situations. The way they used Martin was a heck of a way to break in a rookie. No wonder Martin has had difficulty showing who he really is because he hasn't been allowed to. So who is Austin Martin? IMO he is an ideal lead-off hitter who has great potential to get on base, take & steal an extra base, be a demon on the basepath to shake up pitchers to provoke wild pitches & walks, for hitters behind him to have good pitches to hit & spark rallies. A natural 2Bman who's athletic enough to be eased into the OF when needed. All that Martin has gone through, it'd be easy to let those things affect you. But Martin is spunky, he'll bounce back. Now that Margot is gone we'll have a chance to see who he really is.

A type A nonathletic player who hits a lot of HRs when we don't need them has a high OPS, but a type B player who gets on base, who takes and steals extra bases, be a demon on the basepath to shake up the pitchers, so he throws the ball away, gives the hitters behind him pitches to hit or walks, then he scores & sparks a rally. All that does not affect OPS. I ask you which player would you choose?  Most statheads who live & die by OPS  will always pick Player A & totally spurn Player B. But I'd pick Player B every time & I'd give him every opportunity to prove himself. Hope the the Twins can see the same thing.

[old nurse]

By things like contact, sweet spots and other metrics it would appear thay Marti has a decent eye. What he doesn’t have is bat speed. That should be able to be fixed 

[LambchoP]

I think if he finally gets a definitive roles like 4rth OF and gets enough consistent at bats, I think he along with Keirsey can be serviceable fourth outfielders. At least until Rodriguez and Rosario are ready. The fact Martin hits RH should help his cause, even though Keirsey probably has the better bat and can cover CF. I think we're ok in the OF, especially if we keep Castro. I'm more worried about first base and pitching.

[RpR]

With Farmer gone, Martin is the only player they have that would not be an embarrassment at 2nd Base.

Martin at 2nd and Lee at 3rd should/might close 2 gaping holes in the infield.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

By things like contact, sweet spots and other metrics it would appear thay Marti has a decent eye. What he doesn’t have is bat speed. That should be able to be fixed 

Agreed. Bat speed should be able to be enhanced. Not looking for HR’s but harder hit ground balls and line drives. …….I do think he needs to find a mental space to be able to let it go a bit more ……. a sense of confidence and aggressiveness with his typical “first two strike swings” in the box. 

[rdehring]

The kid was young with limited experience.  So he didn't set the world on fire in his partial rookie season.  The result, most commenters have assigned him to the junk pile.

I see a kid with a ton of ability, just not the type y'all would like to see.  Given a year or two to mature and I believe we will see a valuable big league player.  Just not your typical power guy.

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

He was a top 5 pick because he was just a pretty darn good ballplayer everywhere.

A lot like Nick Gordon.

The gamble when taking such a player is that he will blossom in one of the important tools, and not be merely average across the board.  The Twins apparently tried to get Austin to hit with power, and I think that was the plan with Nick too.  They stuck with both at shortstop for longer than results warranted, as well.

[Fatbat]

It seems like he is very talented but just not ready for everyday MLB utility.  Will he be in the future? I would not bet against him and the Twins better not give up on him.  He could definitely live up to allstar super utility player in the next couple years. He doesn’t have to hit home runs but 50-60 xbh in 500 PA along with 100 runs scored is badly needed on a team of sluggers.  We need baserunner guys and he showed in the first half of ‘24 how that can translate into winning baseball. 

[RpR]

53 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I see a kid with a ton of ability, just not the type y'all would like to see.  Given a year or two to mature and I believe we will see a valuable big league player.  Just not your typical power guy.

That seems to have been said about darn near every rookie who finally crapped out, or was let go and replaced by another boy wonder rookie. 🤤

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

By things like contact, sweet spots and other metrics it would appear thay Marti has a decent eye. What he doesn’t have is bat speed. That should be able to be fixed 

IMO past metrics led TOR & MN to believe that Martin had what it took to be a slugger. Once comfortable & confident in being a MLBer that'll come around.

[chpettit19]

The Twins weren't trying to turn Austin Martin into a "slugger." They weren't trying to add power at the cost of average. They were trying to turn him into a more patient, faster version of Bo Bichette. It's exactly why the minor leagues exist. Steven Kwan just made the same adjustment this last year in the majors. Look for fastballs on the inner half early in the count to pull for power before going back to your natural opposite field, high average approach to allow you to still hit for a high average while bringing enough pop to keep major league pitchers honest. Austin just couldn't make the adjustment. And that's why we're talking about him hopefully being a utility player instead of being a potential all star like the other 2. The Twins did the right thing for them and him. It just doesn't work out sometimes. And now Austin has to find a way to salvage his career.

Austin Martin is not young anymore. Debut age of 25 does not scream "more ceiling left." Doesn't mean there isn't ceiling left, but the odds are not in his favor. He is not new to the outfield. He's been playing it since he was in college. His reads are awful. I don't mean he struggles a little, I mean they're among the worst in the majors. For somebody who's been taking fly balls and has 1500ish innings of outfield work under his belt as a professional his reads should be far better. 2B is his best spot. His arm was never going to be good enough for SS and I'm not sure why they wasted so much time playing him there, but it's likely he'll never be a good enough defender anywhere other than 2B to be a defensive asset as a utility guy. He was drafted for his bat and that's what's supposed to carry him.

He's never shown anything as a pro that would suggest he's going to be the type of hitter people here are suggesting. With power or without. A leadoff hitter on a major league contender? Nothing about his performance with Toronto or Minnesota has ever suggested he'd be good enough to hit in the top 5 of an order. #9 hitter as a secondary table setter? That's the ceiling you should be hoping for. I agree with @Linus, if Martin's glove were an asset he'd have a nice career ahead of him. But as a minus defender with significantly better prospects hot on his heals he's going to have a hard time holding down a job in MN unless he suddenly starts hitting way better than he ever has at any level as a professional.

I was thrilled when they got him in the Berrios trade. He was my favorite player coming out of the 2020 draft. I thought he was going to be a .290+ hitter with 15 HRs and 30 steals a year. But he hasn't been able to make that swing adjustment to pull the ball for power and he just doesn't have any bat speed. That's a hard combination to overcome at the major league level. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 1/4/2025 at 9:21 PM, RpR said:

Martin at 2nd and Lee at 3rd should/might close 2 gaping holes in the infield.

I like that idea. Not sure if second base is the best place for Martin, but I sure wish they would stick him somewhere for a while and quit trying to make him some sort of super utility player. 

[Schmoeman5]

On 1/3/2025 at 1:13 PM, bean5302 said:

It's obviously "Been" but yeah, didn't know if it was some trendy new word for a second...

Martin has little valuable upside left from what I've seen. I'd have liked to see him play 2B more last year to see if he could handle the position at the MLB level because that seems his most likely path to playing time. Martin's lack of ability to square up balls results in poor exit velocities and minimal power projection, but he's serviceable at the plate due to his disicipline. Unfortunately, his defensive instincts leave quite a bit to be desired. 

I think Martin's likely ceiling is a 1 WAR utility guy.

I think Martin's likely ceiling is a 3 WAR utility guy. My neighbor thinks it's 2 WAR. My cousin THINKS he could win a MVP.

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I think Martin's likely ceiling is a 3 WAR utility guy. My neighbor thinks it's 2 WAR. My cousin THINKS he could win a MVP.

I asked the bartender at the hotel bar in Louisville last night and he said who the hell is Austin Martin?