Three Risks of Moving Griffin Jax into a Starting Role

[Cody Christie]

Multiple MLB relievers have switched back to a starting role in recent years. Griffin Jax is a candidate to do this for the Twins, but the potential move comes with inherent risks.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins face an intriguing offseason decision regarding Griffin Jax. A bullpen mainstay in recent years, Jax is coming off a strong season as a late-inning arm. However, there’s been speculation about whether he deserves another opportunity in the starting rotation. While a transition like this could pay dividends, there are significant risks the Twins must consider before altering Jax's role.

Mike Ferrin of MLB Network shared on social media that Twins bench coach Jace Tingler mentioned this on the network. While the Twins are open to the possibility, it's far from certain. Given Minnesota’s financial uncertainty due to declining television revenue and potential ownership changes, they likely won't have the flexibility to pursue big-name starting pitchers in free agency. If they are serious about upgrading the rotation, transitioning Jax into a starting role might be one of their few viable options for making a significant impact.

"I think ultimately, it's going to come down to what is Griffin, deep down in his heart, what does he want to do? Does he want to continue to grow and be a dominant relief pitcher? Which I think he knows he can do. He's got a ton of confidence in that," Tingler said. "Or does he have it deep in his heart, like 'You know what? I've always been a starter and I think I can do this. This is a road I want to go down.' We, as an organization, feel very confident he can do either one."

Derek Falvey has also been open to the possibility of Jax returning to a starting role. “We want to continue to have conversations with him about what he thinks he needs to do to prepare for it, how he would go through a season,” Falvey said. “We're trying to be as transparent with each other as possible about, what could this look like? And then ultimately, not rule out the possibility that a starting option is in play.”

Here are three reasons why moving Jax to the rotation comes with risk. 

1. Risk of Underperformance as a Starter
For Jax to be considered a success in the rotation, he’d need to pitch over 150 innings with an ERA in the 3.70-3.85 range. That’s a high bar for a pitcher who hasn’t started a game since 2021. Starters must face opposing lineups multiple times, which often exposes weaknesses that a reliever can mask in shorter stints. Jax has a starter’s pitch mix, which has worked wonders in the bullpen but may not translate back to the rotation.

The Twins took Jax in the third round of the 2016 MLB Draft, but he was never viewed as a top pitching prospect. In six minor league seasons, he posted a 3.24 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. However, he struggled to strike out batters (6.8 K/9), and his inability to miss bats allowed for extra-base runners (8.7 H/9). Converting a reliever to a starter can lead to uneven results, so the Twins risk using a valuable roster spot on a pitcher who may not produce value.

2. Losing an Elite Bullpen Arm
Jax has established himself as one of baseball’s elite relievers. In 2024, he posted a 2.03 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 95 strikeouts, and 15 walks in 71 innings. The Twins’ relief corps has relied heavily on him, especially in high-leverage moments. His knack for securing crucial late-inning outs has been vital, particularly when closer Jhoan Durán has required rest. Transitioning Jax to the rotation would leave a significant void in the bullpen.

If he transitions to the rotation and fails, the Twins may be unable to reintegrate him back into the bullpen with the same level of effectiveness. This risk looms large, considering the team’s current roster makeup. The Twins have depth in the starting rotation, with young arms like David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Marco Raya not projected to be in the team’s starting rotation to start the year. Meanwhile, the bullpen has been a sore spot, especially in the middle innings. Moving Jax could leave the bullpen even thinner, creating another hole for the front office to address this winter.

3. Increased Injury Risk
Due to their workload, starting pitchers carry a greater injury risk. Jax has been conditioned as a reliever for the past three seasons and has shown the ability to handle short but intense outings. Transitioning to a starter’s workload (typically over 25-30 starts and 150+ innings) requires a completely different level of physical preparation.

Entering his age-30 season, Jax’s body may not respond well to the rigors of starting pitching, especially since he hasn’t built up starter endurance since 2021. Additionally, high-leverage bullpen usage can leave lingering wear and tear. Asking him to shoulder a significantly larger workload could increase his susceptibility to injuries, risking his availability and the team’s depth. 

While the idea of giving Jax another shot as a starter is tempting, the risks may outweigh the rewards. His current role as a bullpen stalwart aligns with the Twins' roster needs, and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to handle a starter’s workload adds another layer of concern.

Ultimately, the Twins must ask themselves: is the potential upside of Jax as a starter worth the possibility of losing a proven bullpen arm and increasing his injury risk? For a team with playoff aspirations, the safer bet might be keeping Jax right where he’s been most effective, and that’s in the bullpen. He anchors a unit that will need all the help it can get in 2025.

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Should the Twins still consider moving Jax to a starting role? Do the risks outweigh the rewards? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[JD-TWINS]

IMO, Jax throwing 71 innings of .87WHIP baseball is a tremendous value & should not be blended into the rest of the relief corp - he is the backbone of the Bullpen. The risks listed are all very real & probable that one of them becomes reality.

Innings limitations at some point and zero gas left in the tank at some point are a very likely scenario even if he’s having great success as a starter.

It’s my assumption that he wants to start to be worth more $$. I would try to remedy that by trading Duran and another piece(s) to get a performance BAT and move Jax to the closer role. Highest leverage and more perceived value for future contracts/paydays.

The AAA depth with Matthews - Morris - C. Lewis - Raya all point to Jax staying in the Pen being the right move. IMO, Festa is ahead of Paddack for a rotation spot. Paddack helps add great depth to the Pen if Duran is traded or Paddack is traded with another guy or two for a youthful option at some position.

[killertwinfan]

Maybe it’s good for him as a player. He certainly could earn more.  Giving him a shot could be the right thing to do if you are trying to develop a culture of growth. Dude has worked hard, he deserves a chance to grow even if he flames out and it hurts the team. 
 

 

[old nurse]

A back of the rotation starter is going to make less than a back of the bullpen reliever. Analysis of what made Lugo, Lopez and King effective last year would be in order  since the usual path is failed starter to good reliever. With the answer to the question would shed the light on could Jax transition back  

 

 

 

 

 

Lu

[saviking]

We are loaded with starting pitchers and he's is our best closer. Why the heck would we do that?

[mikelink45]

If he insists we have to try him as a SP.  But with a BP as valuable as they have become this potentially weakens both the BP and rotation.  We know what he is in the BP, but we really don't know how he will be as a starter.  This decision is more about keeping him happy.  

Right now we have replacements in the rotation, but not the pen. 

[In My La Z boy]

14 minutes ago, saviking said:

We are loaded with starting pitchers and he's is our best closer. Why the heck would we do that?

Once Ryan went down last year we were done. Dobnak started, Zebby was rushed, Paddock never helped. We are no where near "loaded" on starting pitching. All due respect to Griffin Jax and if he wants to start, then i want him to start. 2024 Twins proved you can NEVER have enough starting pitching. Never imo.

[rv78]

 "Given Minnesota’s financial uncertainty due to declining television revenue and potential ownership changes, they likely won't have the flexibility to pursue big-name starting pitchers in free agency."

FYI, the Twins never pursue big name starting pitchers in free agency. 

[Old Crow]

26 minutes ago, old nurse said:

A back of the rotation starter is going to make less than a back of the bullpen reliever. Analysis of what made Lugo, Lopez and King effective last year would be in order  since the usual path is failed starter to good reliever. With the answer to the question would shed the light on could Jax transition back  

 

 

 

 

 

Lu

Uh,  you lost me on that one.  Say again.

[Patzky]

58 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, Jax throwing 71 innings of .87WHIP baseball is a tremendous value & should not be blended into the rest of the relief corp - he is the backbone of the Bullpen. The risks listed are all very real & probable that one of them becomes reality.

Innings limitations at some point and zero gas left in the tank at some point are a very likely scenario even if he’s having great success as a starter.

It’s my assumption that he wants to start to be worth more $$. I would try to remedy that by trading Duran and another piece(s) to get a performance BAT and move Jax to the closer role. Highest leverage and more perceived value for future contracts/paydays.

The AAA depth with Matthews - Morris - C. Lewis - Raya all point to Jax staying in the Pen being the right move. IMO, Festa is ahead of Paddack for a rotation spot. Paddack helps add great depth to the Pen if Duran is traded or Paddack is traded with another guy or two for a youthful option at some position.

The need in the BP is higher than the need in the rotation. Especially if Paddack is retained. Seriously we could have a six man rotation assuming Ryan's health. But why have a situation where Jax could only influence maybe one win a week versus three as a reliever?

[LambchoP]

I don't like it. Why fix what isn't broken. Jax is one of the best relievers in the game, he always seems to pitch in game changing situations. We have enough depth in the rotation. We don't have enough depth in the pen. 

[FargoFanMan]

Really it comes down to what makes the team better. If he can ramp up in spring to a starters role he probably slots in behind Lopez, Ryan and Ober. That pushes SWR to the fifth spot and Festa to St. Paul. This move puts the full BP role to Duran as the guy. This makes your SP staff stronger… maybe. We don’t know if Jax is a shoe in to succeed. All the while bringing down the strength significantly of your BP. Is this a risk they’re willing to take? Replacing a shut down BP guy for what we’ll call a 4th starter? Just seems too risky for me. Especially when this BP struggled to go 3 deep much of last season. Maybe a full season of Topa helps. Maybe they keep Paddack and move him to the BP. Just seems too risky for this team. This scenario doesn’t even acknowledge the what if he struggles conundrum. I say no. But I’m not the guy pushing the buttons.

[Blyleven2011]

I'm in agreement with mikelink45 that its all about making him happy ...

Even though its worth a try in spring training at least , I'm concerned that if he fails as a starter once again  , he might never be the same bullpen arm he once was ...

He's durable , has the mentality and has worked very hard to be a great bullpen arm , and I'm sure he'll work hard to be a starting pitcher ...

But I have stated my concerns  above , plus I'd have to include injury risks and running out of gas due to the amount of innings  , I've never viewed Jax  as a 2 inning pitcher  , he's been more effective as a 1 inning pitcher of 15 to 20 pitches and more effective not pitching  consecutive  days  ...

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

Maybe it’s good for him as a player. He certainly could earn more.  Giving him a shot could be the right thing to do if you are trying to develop a culture of growth. Dude has worked hard, he deserves a chance to grow even if he flames out and it hurts the team. 
 

 

Your second sentence speaks volumes.  It is the reason Duran will be gone quickly in his first opportunity to be a free agent.  Not sure what the right answer is with Jax but overlooking a player's earning ability is not likely something a player forgets.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

We are loaded with starting pitchers and he's is our best closer. Why the heck would we do that?

I believe it's his interest in doing it that is the main driver.  It's his career so the Twins are respecting his wishes to consider it.  If the Twins move Duran and he becomes the main closer.  I am thinking that would impact his desires to be a starter.

[TopGunn#22]

Starting pitching is always the foundation for a winning ball club.  There are many factors at play here not the least of which are what's best for Jax and what's best for the Twins.  And they do not have to be mutually exclusive.

I think Jax is a bulldog, and he will probably succeed with a transition to the rotation.  This article primarily focuses on all the negative aspects of Jax joining the rotation, and while there ARE risks, with his stuff and pitch mix, he could be pretty darn good as a SP.  His work ethic influences me to think he will be a pretty good #4 SP.  Maybe good enough to be a #3.  

I think what I would do is have a meeting with Jax in which I would discuss a WIDE range of possible outcomes.  One of which would be what if Duran was traded and you became the primary closer?  I'm not anxious to trade Duran.  But Jax is more consistent and could thrive as our closer.  And Duran is probably the best trade piece to acquire a young "Catcher of the Future."  Both the Red Sox and the Dodgers have a huge need for a closer and a young catcher (Teel-Red Sox, Rushing-Dodgers) who could be available.

The Red Sox got a solid year out of Connor Wong behind the plate but I think Teel would be harder to get than Rushing from the Dodgers.  The Dodgers have 3 top rated catchers in their farm system, each of whom are very close to becoming major leaguers.  Each of those guys is blocked by All Star Will Smith and Austin Barnes, a backup catcher the Dodgers like a lot and who pitchers love to throw to.

If Duran were used in a trade to bring one of them back, that would allow the Twins to trade either Vasquez or Jeffers, saving money that could be deployed to areas of need while adding offense to our catching platoon.  

If the Twins have no plan or desire to trade Duran, moving Jax to the rotation allows the Twins to dangle a young SP like SWR in a trade.  The Orioles, Red Sox and Dodgers all need SP.  The Dodgers just signed Blake Snell and if they also have the inside track to sign Roki Sasaki they wouldn't need SWR.  But the Orioles and Red Sox have acute rotation needs and a young SP like SWR could bring back something pretty special.  For teams like the Red Sox and Orioles, depending on how FA works out, a package of SWR AND Paddack could be very attractive.  

Finally, if Lugo and Lopez are any indication of what Jax could do in the rotation, imagine how good the #4 spot in our rotation would look with Jax holding it down.  Finally, I don't like the idea of Festa being thought of as needing more time at St. Paul.  I liked what I saw last year and I would like to see him as the #5 rotation piece. 

I just don't like the idea of a team that thinks they should be contending going with 2 or 3  2nd year pitchers in their rotation. I think Matthews could use a little more time in St. Paul. I like Festa's stuff.  I think SWR will never have a higher off season value.  All that adds up to moving SWR in a trade that brings something very good back and putting somebody with bigger upside at the #4 spot in our rotation, allowing Festa to grow as our #5.  

That #4 guy could be Jax.  Or Jax could be our closer.  Our we shock the world and sign someone to be our #4 SP, leave Duran and Jax in the pen, trade SWR for something nice and put Festa in as #5.  Any of those scenarios work for me.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

I believe it's his interest in doing it that is the main driver.  It's his career so the Twins are respecting his wishes to consider it.  If the Twins move Duran and he becomes the main closer.  I am thinking that would impact his desires to be a starter.

I understand wanting to keep him happy, but I would guess that none of us really knows how great his desire really is to start again.  This might be overblown by fans and media.  Also. . . we all have bosses.  I had a lot of autonomy in my job, but at the end of the day I didn't always get to decide my role.  I know he has made and will make much more money than us, but he still answers to his boss.

The reason I care is because I completely agree with the potential pitfalls of Jax returning to the starting rotation.  I don't think it's a chance the we (or he) can afford to take.

[jjswol]

Every day each of us takes risks in life, that is the nature of living life. We all take risks just crosssing the street. If we could eliminate all risks, life would not be worth living.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Once Ryan went down last year we were done. Dobnak started, Zebby was rushed, Paddock never helped. We are no where near "loaded" on starting pitching. All due respect to Griffin Jax and if he wants to start, then i want him to start. 2024 Twins proved you can NEVER have enough starting pitching. Never imo.

We are nowhere close to having too many SPs. We have 3 established veteran SPs, who are not immune to injuries, the rest relying on rookie SP isn't sound. Most logical spot of cutting is Paddack & I still doubt that he can't give you more innings than Jax. 

Jax is where he is because he works hard. is determined & is regimented. IMO Jax can make that transition. There have been a few that have been successful in that attempt. One that I know that did not was AJ Pukk. MIA gave him a short shot at SP, it didn't work out exactly the way they wanted, they put him back in the BP & was better then ever. IMO a target should not be placed on Jax. Putting 150 innings as a standard is stupid. The goal should be getting the most quality innings as we can from him.

IMO the risk of Jax of becoming discontent is greater than him not making it as a SP & flounder. If he wants to be a SP, he should be given that chance. Jax & Duran made that transition from SP to high leverage RP. IMO there are others out there who also could do that for us. If Jax believes he can, we need to trust that.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

A back of the rotation starter is going to make less than a back of the bullpen reliever. Analysis of what made Lugo, Lopez and King effective last year would be in order  since the usual path is failed starter to good reliever. With the answer to the question would shed the light on could Jax transition back  

Back of the rotation arms routinely earn more than all but the most elite relievers.

[DJL44]

No risks, no reward. This team has to take risks to develop pitching. They can't spend hundreds of millions of dollars on "sure things".

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Starting pitching is always the foundation for a winning ball club.  There are many factors at play here not the least of which are what's best for Jax and what's best for the Twins.  And they do not have to be mutually exclusive.

I think Jax is a bulldog, and he will probably succeed with a transition to the rotation.  This article primarily focuses on all the negative aspects of Jax joining the rotation, and while there ARE risks, with his stuff and pitch mix, he could be pretty darn good as a SP.  His work ethic influences me to think he will be a pretty good #4 SP.  Maybe good enough to be a #3.  

I think what I would do is have a meeting with Jax in which I would discuss a WIDE range of possible outcomes.  One of which would be what if Duran was traded and you became the primary closer?  I'm not anxious to trade Duran.  But Jax is more consistent and could thrive as our closer.  And Duran is probably the best trade piece to acquire a young "Catcher of the Future."  Both the Red Sox and the Dodgers have a huge need for a closer and a young catcher (Teel-Red Sox, Rushing-Dodgers) who could be available.

The Red Sox got a solid year out of Connor Wong behind the plate but I think Teel would be harder to get than Rushing from the Dodgers.  The Dodgers have 3 top rated catchers in their farm system, each of whom are very close to becoming major leaguers.  Each of those guys is blocked by All Star Will Smith and Austin Barnes, a backup catcher the Dodgers like a lot and who pitchers love to throw to.

If Duran were used in a trade to bring one of them back, that would allow the Twins to trade either Vasquez or Jeffers, saving money that could be deployed to areas of need while adding offense to our catching platoon.  

If the Twins have no plan or desire to trade Duran, moving Jax to the rotation allows the Twins to dangle a young SP like SWR in a trade.  The Orioles, Red Sox and Dodgers all need SP.  The Dodgers just signed Blake Snell and if they also have the inside track to sign Roki Sasaki they wouldn't need SWR.  But the Orioles and Red Sox have acute rotation needs and a young SP like SWR could bring back something pretty special.  For teams like the Red Sox and Orioles, depending on how FA works out, a package of SWR AND Paddack could be very attractive.  

Finally, if Lugo and Lopez are any indication of what Jax could do in the rotation, imagine how good the #4 spot in our rotation would look with Jax holding it down.  Finally, I don't like the idea of Festa being thought of as needing more time at St. Paul.  I liked what I saw last year and I would like to see him as the #5 rotation piece. 

I just don't like the idea of a team that thinks they should be contending going with 2 or 3  2nd year pitchers in their rotation. I think Matthews could use a little more time in St. Paul. I like Festa's stuff.  I think SWR will never have a higher off season value.  All that adds up to moving SWR in a trade that brings something very good back and putting somebody with bigger upside at the #4 spot in our rotation, allowing Festa to grow as our #5.  

That #4 guy could be Jax.  Or Jax could be our closer.  Our we shock the world and sign someone to be our #4 SP, leave Duran and Jax in the pen, trade SWR for something nice and put Festa in as #5.  Any of those scenarios work for me.  

Great logic Topgun. And you put a lot of thought into it. Besides Jax, I agree with you about our need for a very good young MLB-ready catcher. Some avenues like LAD, SEA, MIL & BAL have these types of catchers who are blocked. I really like Duran & SWR but I'm open to moving them if it lands a Teel. While others like BOS, COL & maybe AZ we'd need to offer Jeffers as a veteran replacement for the catcher we are targeting along with any other players offered.

IMO we shouldn't give up on Roki Sasaki. He has a lot of potential in many ways & we have a lot to offer. We can be winners while he is with us, we have very good pitching development. Maeda did well here. he has less people to share the spotlight with and does anyone knows how much money we have allotted for the International Draft? IMO he'll go to SD but we need to at least try.

 

[bean5302]

Funny how a budget crisis and desperation make a team's F.O. more willing to consider these things. Back when Duran wanted back into the rotation, Baldelli publicly scoffed at the idea. The article is correct about the risks, but more than that, the risk the Twins are willing to cast off a starter for talent/salary relief and trust in Jax is the big risk. Having Jax pitch in April, not perform well, and move him back into the bullpen isn't a big deal. Having the Twins trade away Lopez or SWR for salary relief/talent because they're counting on Jax is a big deal.

The Twins are not deep in the rotation. I'm not sure why people assume they are:

Lopez, Ryan, Ober. Those are the 3 pitchers the Twins can count on. I don't consider any of them to be an legit ace even though it seems like a lot of the baseball world does believe that about Lopez. 

SWR. His poor performance, reduced velo at the end of the year was the same as his great performance improved velo at the beginning of the year. SWR gained a little on his fastball at mid year to sustain his success, but as soon as that extra bump dropped back off, MLB hitters adapted with the aid of scouting reports. Keep in mind, SWR was supposedly gassed and losing that fastball at just 125 innings (112 in MLB, 13 in AAA). SWR's offerings are pretty weak on Stuff+, his conditioning and endurance are questionable as a full time starter, and the scouting reports were effective at setting him back.

David Festa. Sophomore slump is a real probability with him as the scouting reports grow. Festa has struggled with HRs at the upper minor levels, and while he pitched well enough to hold down a back end rotation arm, he also only went 125 innings combined last year. He could take a step forward or he could fall back. He is not a young prospect anymore entering his age 25 season. Last year there were 40 starting pitchers at age 25 or younger in MLB who pitched 70+ innings (which is the innings cutoff for 150 total qualified pitchers). That's about 30% of MLB starters. It includes legit front end starters people would recognize. Bibee, Crochet, Skenes, Greene, Yamamoto... etc. 

Chris Paddack. I don't view this guy as a legit starter at all. He's capped at 80 IP per year, and even when he does pitch, he hasn't been effective carrying a 4.82 ERA during his tenure with the Twins. Not once in his entire injury plagued career has Paddack carried an ERA/FIP combo below 3.95. He's never been a mid rotation starter in his career. Blame the hype machine if you think otherwise.

Zebby Matthews. Love the story, but he needs to work on his command. He wasn't ready yet last year, and he's not going to be a mid rotation or better starter unless his stuff and/or command improves. 
---------------------------------
We're past legitimate depth options before mid season now.
---------------------------------
Andrew Morris? 20% K vs. 8% BB in AAA last year. Both at the limits of rotation projectability. He might make it or might flame out.

Marco Raya? Shoulder 2021. Shoulder 2022. Shoulder 2023. Josh Winder #2? Aside from the durability concerns, Raya's stuff has played more like Fernando Romero's projections. The K's which were supposed to be there haven't consistently shown up.

[nicksaviking]

So what happens then when Duran and Sands tell the Twins that they want to start again too?

Honestly, I think this is foolish and opening up a can of worms that they're even allowing the optics of a pitcher calling his own shots. 

Just about every other reliever-turned-starter made the transition on another team. Likely because the former team knew it was a dangerous road to tread.

[TheLeviathan]

Is there much history of success in taking 30 year old relievers and making them starters?  It seems to me that the numbers do not favor this sort of move.  I personlly think this would be a mistake.

[The Great Hambino]

40 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

So what happens then when Duran and Sands tell the Twins that they want to start again too?

Honestly, I think this is foolish and opening up a can of worms that they're even allowing the optics of a pitcher calling his own shots. 

Just about every other reliever-turned-starter made the transition on another team. Likely because the former team knew it was a dangerous road to tread.

Agreed.

The Twins don't exist to cater to the preferences of their players.  If Jax wanted to be a starter, he should've performed better when he had the chance.  The most likely outcome of moving him to the rotation is that both the rotation and bullpen are made worse.

If you're the Rockies or White Sox, sure, give it a whirl.  But this is not the kind of move that a team pretending to care about competing should make

[Coach]

Two words (name actually); Louie Varland.  How'd that work out  The definition of management is to put personnel into positions of the company where they can mutually benefit most.

[bean5302]

13 minutes ago, Coach said:

Two words (name actually); Louie Varland.  How'd that work out  The definition of management is to put personnel into positions of the company where they can mutually benefit most.

What about Louie Varland? He was a starter who didn't work out. He hasn't been "great" in a very SSS of relief appearances (6.44 ERA, 3.54 FIP), and wasn't playable as a starter (5.27 ERA, 5.46 FIP). 

Jax is a legitimately different pitcher 4 years later now than he was in 2021. His average velocity is up 4mph. his pitch offerings have changed as well. He's throwing his 4 seamer 30% less than he used to, he ditched his curveball and added a sinker. He's not comparable to the Varland shift since the only thing which really changes for Varland is velo.

Evaluating the change for Jax should be done mostly in a vacuum, IMHO.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

What about Louie Varland? He was a starter who didn't work out. He hasn't been "great" in a very SSS of relief appearances (6.44 ERA, 3.54 FIP), and wasn't playable as a starter (5.27 ERA, 5.46 FIP). 

Jax is a legitimately different pitcher 4 years later now than he was in 2021. His average velocity is up 4mph. his pitch offerings have changed as well. He's throwing his 4 seamer 30% less than he used to, he ditched his curveball and added a sinker. He's not comparable to the Varland shift since the only thing which really changes for Varland is velo.

Evaluating the change for Jax should be done mostly in a vacuum, IMHO.

I agree completely with your last statement.  Varland and Jax are different pitchers. 

However, while Jax may appear to be a "different pitcher" than he was four years ago, I would suggest that he has perhaps just been doing a different job that has suited his skills and strengths better than the first one (rather than doing a job further down the food chain). First of all, it is pretty unlikely that the increase of 4 mph in velocity is going to stick if he is throwing five or six innings and up to 100 pitches per game.  He's throwing his four seamer less than he used to, but again, in a five to six inning outing, can that stick?  Also, as a starting pitcher, he may need that curveball back too.  It's pretty hard to be a starter without a large repertoire of pitches. 

As the original author suggested, there are many potential pitfalls to moving Jax to the rotation.  I personally would not be willing to take the chance, but I understand if others would. I think he's just too valuable in his current role.  YMMV

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Back of the rotation arms routinely earn more than all but the most elite relievers.

If Jax continues to pitch as he did last year you think he would not be elite? . If you think he can’t maintain that level of pitching, why would you make him a starter. You might as well advocate for Cole Sands to be a starter