Projecting Minnesota Twins’ 2025 Starting Rotation After Arbitration Decisions

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s starting rotation projects to be one of the team’s strengths, with a combination of established veterans and young pitchers with upside. Did their decisions at last week's tender deadline change any of that?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and Jeffrey Becker–Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins tendered contracts to all 11 arbitration-eligible players, solidifying the roster for the upcoming season. With those decisions in place, the focus shifts to shaping the 2025 starting rotation, a key element in the team's pursuit of postseason success. The Twins boast an intriguing mix of proven veterans and young arms, but questions remain about how the pieces will fall into place.

Twins Projected Opening Day Rotation
Pablo López and Bailey Ober sit atop the projected rotation, providing stability and differing skill sets. López has been the staff ace since arriving from Miami in the Luis Arraez trade. Last season, he struggled in the first half, but he had a 12-game stretch in the second half wherein he posted a 2.11 ERA, with opponents being held to a .638 OPS. The Twins need more of the second-half performance for López to live up to his salary jump this season ($21.75 million).  

Ober offers pinpoint control and an uncanny ability to suppress hard contact. Last season, he posted a 104 ERA+ with a career-high 9.6 K/9. In 2022, he posted a .464 xSLG, which ranked in the bottom 6% of the league. He’s made strides over the last two seasons, though, to the point where he had a career-best .371 xSLG. Workload management has become less of an issue in recent seasons after consecutive years of increased innings.

Joe Ryan slots in as a strong mid-rotation option with the upside of being a playoff-caliber starter. After a season of refining his secondary pitches and improving his fastball velocity, Ryan looks poised to take another step forward in 2025. He ranked in the league’s top 9% in xwOBA, BB%, and xERA. An argument can be made that Ryan should throw his fastball more regularly with his jump in velocity and unique arm angle. His aggressive approach on the mound complements López and Ober's styles, giving the Twins a diverse top three.

Simeon Woods Richardson projects as the fourth starter, with the former top prospect finally ready to solidify his role in the big leagues. He saved the Twins rotation last season after posting a 3.51 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and .642 OPS allowed in the first half. He struggled more in the second half as he shot past his career high in innings pitched. While his 2024 campaign had its ups and downs, Woods Richardson is entering a season where he needs to solidify his long-term potential with the club.

The fifth spot currently belongs to Chris Paddack, but there’s an asterisk attached. Paddack’s $7.5 million contract makes him a potential trade candidate, especially as the Twins look to allocate resources wisely. Last season, he posted an 83 ERA+ in 88 1/3 innings in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. If he remains, he provides veteran depth, but if moved, some of the other options below offer tantalizing upside as long-term rotational options.

Beyond Opening Day: Upside and Flexibility
David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, Travis Adams, and Matt Canterino are the other starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, though their roles could shift depending on team needs. Festa was the team’s top pitching prospect at this point last season and showed some positive signs during his rookie season. He ranked in the 82nd percentile or higher in value added via breaking balls; chase rate; and strikeout rate. Festa currently projects to start the year at Triple-A, but a Paddack trade could open a rotation spot. 

Matthews was the biggest riser in the Twins farm system last year, moving from High-A to the MLB level. He is a strike-throwing machine, with only seven walks in 97 minor-league innings. His numbers with the Twins were pedestrian (6.69 ERA, 1.65 WHIP), but he pitched more innings than in any other season and flew through the upper levels of the minors. The Twins will need Matthews at some point this season, but they would likely want him to establish himself at Triple-A before a call-up. 

Raya has some of the best stuff among Twins pitching prospects, but the team’s handling of him has been confusing. The Twins have moved him quickly through the system while limiting his workload. Last season, he pitched nearly the entire year at Double-A, where he was over three years younger than the average age of the competition. He only completed six innings in one appearance and was limited to five other appearances where he made it through the fifth inning. In June, I argued that it was time for the Twins to change their plan with Raya, and they allowed him to pitch later in games as the season ended. 

Adams and Canterino are still viewed as starters, but their best path to impacting the big-league roster could be in a bullpen role. Adams was a surprise addition to the team’s 40-man roster. His durable frame and ability to induce weak contact make him an ideal multi-inning option. Canterino, finally healthy after years of battling injuries, could be a late-inning weapon if his elite stuff plays up in shorter stints.

The Twins have the luxury of depth, but that also positions them to be active in trade discussions. Paddack’s salary could free up valuable payroll space, and the front office might explore packaging a young arm like Matthews or Raya in a deal for offensive reinforcements.

Regardless of potential moves, the Twins enter 2025 with a rotation brimming with potential. With López, Ober, and Ryan anchoring the staff and Woods Richardson and Festa providing upside, Minnesota appears well-equipped to contend in the AL Central. The team's ability to maximize its depth and make shrewd off-season moves will determine just how far this group can take them.

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What do you think about the Twins' current rotation? Should the team explore trading Paddack, or does his experience make him too valuable to let go? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[kroll]

Looks strong.

Really excited to match up against the Yankees, Baltimore, Astros, Cleveland, Detroit and KC.

Should be an exciting  year.

Probably won't be purchasing Fubo again or whatever streaming service broadcasts the games but I'll be reading and listening to what's available.

Naw.... I think I'll put in as much effort towards the team as their ownership does.

Just hope the boys don't get "tuckered-out" this year. 150 minutes of work each day (minus sitting in the dugout or standing in the field) can be incredibly taxing.

Loved Royce.......not so much anymore.

And don't worry guys.....I WILL find other things to occupy my time.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I submit that  Griffin Jax is a possible starter also. I would like to see how that would pan out.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Did you seriously write that the Twins have a luxury of depth at SP?  Really?

3 quality starters, a broken-down vet, a rookie that went downhill after teams got a look at him and a whole bunch unproven question marks?

I have no idea how to respond to that.

 

[Blyleven2011]

If the twins are going to trade paddack , WHAT the heck is taking them so long ...

Free up salary and get to work filling some position holes  , the longer they wait , the good talent will be  playing for someone else ... 

falvey said he is going to be creative , let's see some action  , can't get anything done sitting on your hands ...

Everyone is looking for pitching so make a trade , I wouldn't be surprised  that they are also listening to trade offers for SWR  ...

Ìm fine with our young pitchers to fill out the rotation  and im sure they will find some depth in pitching with minor league signings with sn invite to spring training..

[mikelink45]

I have no idea - Lopez is our Ace, but then he goes stretches where he is more of number 4.  Ryan is interesting but not an ace.  Ober is good unless he has to face KC.  We have a solid lineup of SP, but unfortunately none of them raise the bar like Cole or Wheeler or Skubal... We have a nice set of SP, not a great set.

[PatPfund]

Amen @Fire Dan Gladden! Rather than a strength, the rotation is the biggest hole in the organization. 2 good starters, one whose increased velocity was followed by a torn shoulder (and he is poised more for innings restrictions than a big step forward), and... well... the post above says it. Compare the current rotation (where Ober is clearly SP2) to the spring of '23 when Ober had to start in St Paul.

We have potential answers all over the place for position players (Lewis bounce-back, Julien bounce-back, Miranda bounce-back, Lee healthy, Correa healthy, Buxton healthy, more established Larnach and Wallner, Martin getting full play instead of Margot scraps, E-Rod, Helman, Keirsey, and maybe Keaschall, or Camargo).

But on the SP front, as it currently stands, we could 2-3 deep into St Paul's rotation by mid-May, and down to Randy Dobnak before you know it. This team needs another SP3-4 who is healthy and will post 160 competitive innings far more than we need another has-been OF or 1B who simply acts as a blockade to better/younger talent. (Lorenzen was that guy last year, and he got paid under $5 million.)

[tony&rodney]

The Twins would like to have another really good starting pitcher and my suggestion is to overwhelm Miami in an attempt to acquire Sandy Alcantara. That is extremely unlikely and the Twins don't reach high very often, There may be some other opportunities too, but I'm pretty content with the starting pitching.

Last year Louie Varland and Zebby Matthews were cuffed up with a rude greeting to MLB. The top four were pretty consistent. Now depth is a real difficult word to use with any pitching staff. Ask the Dodgers about their top ten starting pitchers going into last season and the subsequent injuries. Stuff happens, so we should avoid talking about depth.

Chris Paddack over David Festa would be strictly a scholarship award. Since 2019, Paddack has had a rough go of it. If he stays, we all hope he turns back into the 2019 model. We might as well call Nelson Cruz too. Doubt aside, one doesn't ever know where injured pitchers find their status. Seems like Festa, barring a solid addition, should be allowed to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. As usual, injuries are the cloud over every starting pitching staff in baseball. I'm feeling decent about the Twins guys right now.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Did you seriously write that the Twins have a luxury of depth at SP?  Really?

3 quality starters, a broken-down vet, a rookie that went downhill after teams got a look at him and a whole bunch unproven question marks?

I have no idea how to respond to that.

 

How many teams can throw three better guys at the top?

[LeatherAntenna]

2 hours ago, kroll said:

Looks strong.

Really excited to match up against the Yankees, Baltimore, Astros, Cleveland, Detroit and KC.

Should be an exciting  year.

Probably won't be purchasing Fubo again or whatever streaming service broadcasts the games but I'll be reading and listening to what's available.

Naw.... I think I'll put in as much effort towards the team as their ownership does.

Just hope the boys don't get "tuckered-out" this year. 150 minutes of work each day (minus sitting in the dugout or standing in the field) can be incredibly taxing.

Loved Royce.......not so much anymore.

And don't worry guys.....I WILL find other things to occupy my time.

Royce sure surprised me, at the end of 2023 playoffs and all, thought he was a piece of magic, but realize now that is not that reality.  Great young man, perhaps not that special.  Hope he proves me wrong.

[DocBauer]

The Twins top 3 are pretty damn good. Period. SWR just needs to prove he can be as good as he was in 2024. He actually got better, and more confident as the season went along. You could see the growing confidence on the mound. He did grow tired late in the season, surpassing career IP totals. He's still quite young. I've read multiple times about STUFF PLUS, and how good his pitches rate. If that's really accurate, then he needs to put guys away a little sooner to take the next step. But if he only threw as good this season as last, he's a solid arm in the rotation. But he's definitely got room to take another step forward. 

Festa was really impressive, for the most part, as a rookie making his debut as well. His BB weren't awful at 3.2 per 9, and his K rate of 10.8 was impressive. A couple early appearances inflated his ERA, but I believe his ERA was right around 4 after his first 4 or 5 appearances. Nothing wrong with that for a rookie at all. He's not a finished product by any means, but the stuff is there. If the curve he's dusting off/working on can be even decent, he gives batters something else to look at and think about. No offense to SWR, but I can see Festa as the #4 guy in the rotation by mid season.

This has the makings of a good to very good rotation! 

Matthews was pressed in to ML action early. He still showed promise. And his rise last season was pretty remarkable. Hopefully, everyone is healthy and he sits at AAA for a couple months before being needed. Morris is just behind Matthews in the pecking order, and might be just as good. He also could use a little more AAA time. While not on the 40 man, which Raya is, I wouldn't be shocked if Lewis and Culpepper weren't more ready to debut over the younger Raya, despite his potential. They're simply older, and have thrown more innings. 

I don't dislike Paddack at all. Further removed from TJ, and more time to stretch out and get a feel for his change, I'd be fine keeping him. If he's 100%, he's got some upside to be a solid back of the rotation arm. But it's that upside for someone else, young arms on hand, and the need to find some financial breathing room that makes me believe he's moved elsewhere. 

It's been a very long time since the Twins have been able to march the kind of talent to the mound to start games that's they've had the past few seasons, including 2025. And I can't recall a time in recent memory when they had this many good looking young arms arriving, or getting ready to knock on the door.

[Jocko87]

Unless they are blown away Paddack is in the opening day rotation.

I always get a chuckle out of the consensus that the Mariners or Marlins have too much pitching only to see the entire Marlins staff hurt.  Trading from starting pitching "depth" is mostly a media creation.  Both of those teams had huge holes to fill, not an over abundance of pitching.

I do like the idea of a Paddack trade but it really feels like an in season move.  Let Festa and Zebby dominate AAA for two months and someone with injuries would love to have Paddack.

[Fatbat]

Geez, there are plenty of comments about how bad our players are.  We definitely are young, injury prone and full of maybe this and that.  Most teams have it worse!! 
Could we use a Snell? Sure but the Dodgers just signed him.  We will have to so without any big seals this off season cause there isnt any extra money. Get used to it.  Let the young guys make mistakes and grow thru it. Thats the twins for the foreseeable future. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How many teams can throw three better guys at the top?

Plenty. As of projections today, ATL, LAD, PHI, KCR, SEA, SDP, HOU. Add a half dozen more by the end of free agency.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Plenty. As of projections today, ATL, LAD, PHI, KCR, SEA, SDP, HOU. Add a half dozen more by the end of free agency.

If Ryan is healthy the answer is nobody

 

[Doctor Gast]

Last offseason there was a lot of hype that Paddack was replacing Gray & that he'd pitch 140+ innings & DeSclavani was our answer. All that was based on the unrealistic hope that their arms weren't going to fall off. & IMO we were fortunate that only DeSclvani, Paddack & Ryan went down. & if we had gone into the postseason we'd go into it with a tired Lopez & Ober & totally gassed Simmy (how extensively they used him I'm awed that he didn't end up with arm problems). Twins & many fans had given up on Simmy but he saved us from a more embarrassing season. I really like our rotation. Our top 3 have established themselves (Ryan isn't a middle-of-the-rotation SP. he's top-end).  I'm a big fan of Simmy, I didn't ever give up on him but being realistic he might have to do some readjusting to the league adjusting to him. That takes some time but he'll plow through that. Paddack will be one more year removed from his TJ & he has value but he's the easiest avenue to cut the budget & easiest to replace. I'm surprised too that he hasn't been traded already (he can fit into any competing rotation that has some money) so we can more efficiently plan for '25. Although we have an established top 3, we are not immuned to injuries, & IMO being so dependent on a sophomore SP & a bunch of rookies for our depth is foolhardy. 

Last season we started it on unrealistic hopes that was doomed to fail. We are not that deep in dependable SPs (yes a lot of upside but not dependable) haven't completely filled the Gray hole & we need to fill the Paddack hole. IMO we need at least another good dependable SP to begin the season & that should be our main focus.

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How many teams can throw three better guys at the top?

Our three top starters are very good, better than average for sure. That said, I don't think that any one of those three pitchers truly qualifies as the "elite" type that will be penciled in for Cy Young award consideration (sorry, Pablo!) and will cause opposing teams to lose a night's sleep . Yes, the rotation is good, but I still don't think we have a true shut-down ace like we did when Santana was here, or even Liriano in his prime. But hey, Lopez and Ober seem like they COULD turn a corner and become that sort of ace, but I'm still waiting. 

[Fezig]

"Ober offers pinpoint control and an uncanny ability to suppress hard contact"

For us gray in the beard folk, we called this "Pitching".

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Plenty. As of projections today, ATL, LAD, PHI, KCR, SEA, SDP, HOU. Add a half dozen more by the end of free agency.

Even this projection, which I won't dispute, puts the pitching in a better spot relative to other MLB teams than the position player group. Seems like you make a case, without actually stating it, for Falvey to get to work fixing the lineup.

[PatG]

Has anyone heard of the status of Ryan's arm injury??

[LambchoP]

Our 1-3 SP should be pretty solid. Number 4 SWR I could see going either way. Major sophomore slump now that the books out, or, improve with his new found confidence. Paddack can and should be moved. That means we need someone else though as I think Festa and for sure Mathews need time in AAA. If we are truly trying to improve our rotation, we should sign someone like Severino, Flaherty or Mannea to be a 2-4 type SP, and then sign a low cost high reward type guy like Mathews Boyd. If he works out great, we have six capable starters, if not, try him in the pen or release him. I do think we need to do both however. You can never have too much pitching, and aside from Ryan last year, we've been very lucky with our rotation health.

[Otaknam]

Lots of unfounded optimism here, but I hope I am wrong. The Twins have a group of low level number twos or high level number 3 starters, with no real ace. Lopez is being paid like an ace, but he needs to be an ace over the entire season, not just half of it. Ryan and Ober are solid and maybe can reach number 2 starter status with more improvement.SWR looks like a number five guy, with not much upside unless he improves his fastball velocity. Festa has a chance to show great improvement, but the rest are unproven. Wondering who would trade for Paddock and his $7.5 million contract, given his injury history.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How many teams can throw three better guys at the top?

Three guys is not "a luxury of depth".  That is my point.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If Ryan is healthy the answer is nobody

 

Nobody?  You mean to say you would take a healthy Twins SP1-3 over every other team in baseball?

Homerism at it's finest.

[PatPfund]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How many teams can throw three better guys at the top?

Right now the Twins top three is Lopez (great), Ober (good), ....umm, umm, SWR? Festa? Paddack? Until Ryan is back actually pitching, and shows the injury hasn't set him back, and shows that he can pitch like last year, but not injure his shoulder again, and until we know what inning restrictions he might be under, he isn't a number 3. The deep questions that go with all of the other possible #3s show rotation is not currently a team strength.

Even if I spot you Ryan, how about the Dodgers having Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani. Or sub in Dustin May, or sub in Tony Gonsolin. The point is that there were 20 pitching staffs with a better group ERA than the Twins. Rotation depth was a problem going into last season, they did nothing, and the rotation finished the year running on fumes. This is not an area of strength (especially to trade FROM).

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If Ryan is healthy the answer is nobody

 

LOL, Joe Ryan elevates the entire rotation to elite, does he?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

Right now the Twins top three is Lopez (great), Ober (good), ....umm, umm, SWR? Festa? Paddack? Until Ryan is back actually pitching, and shows the injury hasn't set him back, and shows that he can pitch like last year, but not injure his shoulder again, and until we know what inning restrictions he might be under, he isn't a number 3. The deep questions that go with all of the other possible #3s show rotation is not currently a team strength.

Even if I spot you Ryan, how about the Dodgers having Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani. Or sub in Dustin May, or sub in Tony Gonsolin. The point is that there were 20 pitching staffs with a better group ERA than the Twins. Rotation depth was a problem going into last season, they did nothing, and the rotation finished the year running on fumes. This is not an area of strength (especially to trade FROM).

Or sub in this Blake Snell fella they just signed.

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If Ryan is healthy the answer is nobody

 

I like the Twins pitching more than many. And I'd actually focus on the position player side this offseason if I were in charge. But this is a pretty outlandish claim. The Dodgers have Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Snell who are all better than anyone the Twins can throw. That's 4 guys better than anyone on the Twins staff. I'd easily take Strider, Sale, and Schwellenbach over Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. Phillies can run out Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, and Suarez. The Mariners run out Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Miller, and Woo who are probably all better than anyone the Twins have. I may even take Skenes, Jones, and whoever the Pirates put at #3 over the Twins guys. 

The Twins have a very nice top 3. But to suggest they're the best top 3 in baseball is pretty wildly off base.

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Canterino, finally healthy after years of battling injuries

Source?

Quote

Lopez is being paid like an ace

$21.7M is not ace money. He's getting paid about the same amount as Yusei Kikuchi - a 34-year-old pitcher who has made one All-Star team. There will be at least 30 starting pitchers getting paid more than Lopez in 2025.

Ace money is in the $30-40M per season range. Pablo is getting paid like a #2 pitcher.

[Fatbat]

I would keep our starting staff/depth and build an elite bullpen on top of it.  Our top 5-7 starters are not the problem.