How Joe Ryan's Fastball Evolution Can Define His 2025 Season

Joe Ryan’s ascension to big-league success revolved around his fastball. It’s a pitch that baffled hitters in the minors, even as scouts questioned whether his heater-heavy approach could translate to the majors at a non-overpowering velocity. As he prepares for his fourth full season in the big leagues, Ryan faces a unique challenge: finding the right balance between increased velocity and pitch usage to maximize his effectiveness.

The Fastball: A Foundation of Success
When Ryan debuted with the Twins in 2021, his fastball averaged around 91-92 mph. Despite its modest velocity, the pitch played up thanks to Ryan’s exceptional command and the deceptive release angle generated by his unorthodox arm slot. In the minors, Ryan threw his fastball over 70% of the time, and scouts raised questions about how that mix would survive the escalating difficulty involved in going from even the high minors to facing big-leaguers.

Their doubts seemed valid early on, as hitters posted a .461 xSLG during his debut season when facing his fastball, with a 20.3 Whiff%. In his first two seasons (2021-22), he threw his fastball over 60% of the time, and it didn’t generate as many swings and misses as in the minor leagues. He was going to need to adjust his approach to find more success. 

A Velocity Boost and Reduced Reliance  
Over the past three seasons, Ryan has added velocity to his fastball, which now sits around 94-95 mph and occasionally touches the upper 90s. The increased speed has made the pitch more formidable, but Ryan has paradoxically leaned on it less. In 2024, he threw his fastball just 48.5% of the time, a significant reduction compared to his minor-league days. He posted career-best totals in Put Away % (23.4), xBA (.191), and xSLG (.354) when throwing his four-seamer. 

The adjustment reflects Ryan’s effort to develop a more diverse arsenal, which now includes an improved slider and a sweeper he introduced in 2023. Last season, his sweeper had a 33.7 Whiff% and a .164 xBA, the best total of any of his pitches. However, Ryan might have unintentionally neutralized one of his greatest strengths by relying less on his signature pitch.  

The Path Forward: Using the Fastball More  
Ryan’s increased velocity raises the question: should he use his fastball more often? The data suggests he should. Even in 2024, his fastball generated a 27.5 Whiff% and a 23.4 Put Away%. That Put Away % was as high as his sweeper, despite the sweeper having a higher Whiff%. It’s possible that reintroducing a higher fastball usage rate could help him keep hitters off-balance, especially early in counts when they might be sitting on his secondary pitches.  

Additionally, Ryan’s fastball uniquely plays well in the upper part of the strike zone, where its “rising” effect can induce swings and misses. Big-league hitters can square up a straight fastball, but his is unique enough that it can still be a weapon. Incorporating more high fastballs into his game plan might also help him avoid the middle of the plate, where home runs have been an issue.

For example, his splitter was used 22.2% of the time last season, but he allowed six home runs with that pitch in 122 plate appearances. In his current mode, Ryan sometimes doubles up with the splitter, or throws that pitch on the heels of his sweeper or slider. As you'd expect based on the action of the pitches in question, though, the splitter is most effective when it's playing off the fastball. Here are the splits for the pitch's performance last season based on the pitch type of the previous offering in the at-bat.

It sounds hopelessly old-fashioned, but there might still be value in establishing the fastball and forcing hitters to hunt it, in order to get the most out of non-fastballs.

A Balancing Act
The challenge for Ryan heading into 2025 will be striking the right balance. While the development of his secondary pitches has been crucial to his growth as a pitcher, the fastball remains the backbone of his repertoire. If he can find a way to increase its usage without becoming overly reliant on it, Ryan could take another step toward being a true top-of-the-rotation arm.  

Rocco Baldelli and the Twins' coaching staff will undoubtedly help Ryan fine-tune his pitch mix. With the team looking to rebound from a disappointing 2024 season, Ryan’s ability to harness his improved fastball while maintaining a diverse arsenal could be a critical factor in their success. As he continues to evolve, leaning back into that strength while embracing his newfound tools can be the key to unlocking his full potential.  

Should Ryan use his fastball more regularly? Leave a comment and start the discussion.