Minnesota Twins Arbitration Dilemma: Jhoan Durán

[Matthew Lenz]

Mr. 105 enters his first year of arbitration in 2025, after an up-and-down year as the Minnesota Twins' primary high-leverage option. With the self-imposed salary constraints looming over the head of Derek Falvey, he’ll have to think carefully about how to proceed.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Jhoan Durán came to the Twins via trade, from the Arizona Diamondbacks ahead of the 2018 trade deadline. It was the deal that saw fan favorite Eduardo Escobar head to the desert. I’d be remiss not to include Escobar’s legendary “thank you, Minnesota” tweet here:

Durán wasn’t the focal point of that deal, but more than six years later he’s the only part of the deal that has contributed to the big-league roster. Now, after three years as one of the more dominant pitchers in baseball, MLBTR projects the right-handed fireballer to make $3.7 million via arbitration. And if he continues on this trajectory, that number will assuredly more than double going into his final year of arbitration eligibility in the 2026-2027 offseason. For reference, Milwaukee Brewers’ closer Devin Williams is projected for $7.7 million this winter, despite missing two-thirds of the 2024 season. With that laid out, should the Twins tender Durán a contract or move on? Let's look into both sides of the argument.

Why He Should Be Tendered
Simply put: he’s one of the best relievers in baseball. Yes, he took some lumps in 2024, but ultimately ended the season with a solid 3.64 ERA, a very good 22.4% K-BB rate, and a 60.9% ground-ball rate. Of the 22 earned runs he gave up on the season, 15 of them occurred in five different outings; he had a whole lot of scoreless, even clean appearances. His lumps may seem more magnified, as two of them came in the home stretch of the season when seemingly the entire team was slumping. That said, he pitched to a 2.85 FIP, thanks in part to a curveball that allowed an opponent batting average of .151 and induced a whopping 46.7% whiff rate.

When we look at this from a roster construction standpoint, there is an unquestioned need for quality bullpen arms to pair with Griffin Jax and Cole Sands. FanGraphs has his 2024 production worth $9.5 million, so the current price tag for a reliever of this caliber is an absolute steal and a no-brainer, even when considering the financial constraints the front office faces. If they do decide that $3.7 million is too rich for their blood, Durán would undoubtedly draw sizable interest on the trade market from any team on board with cheap production.  

Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered
Durán seemed to falter when it mattered most, with a 4.56 ERA in the second half of the season, and we’ve now seen his ERA increase for the second straight season after a sub-2.00 ERA in his rookie campaign. While ERA isn’t the best indicator, his FIP has also increased in each of the last two seasons, while his strikeout rate is going in the opposite direction. He’s also seen an overall increase in his opponents' batting average each year, but most concerning is the ineffectiveness of his fastball in 2024. Down more than one mile per hour from 2023, the heater had a run value of -3 in 2024, with an opponent batting average and slugging percentage of .296 and .408, respectively.

From a roster perspective, relievers can be an extremely volatile group. It’s really rare for relievers to produce at an elite level for as long as someone like Emmanuel Clase has, and it’s nearly impossible to predict when the fall-off comes. While I don’t expect Durán to turn into a pumpkin and become completely unserviceable, there are signs suggesting that he may already be on the decline as one of baseball’s most dominant relievers.

What I Would Do
Tender him. The Twins would be absolutely nuts not to. They’d be slightly less nuts to tender him and trade him away, but at least they’d be recouping some value out of the dominant reliever. With three more years of team control via arbitration and currently in a competitive window with more top prospects coming, the Twins need to hold on to one of the best high-leverage arms in baseball. While his blowups are fresh in our minds, we can’t let ourselves suffer from recency bias and think the righty is cooked. Relievers are volatile by nature, but at only 26 years old, hopefully, Durán has many more years of dominance left in his tank.

---

What do you think? Should Durán be tendered and kept, tendered and traded, or non-tendered?

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[Mike Sixel]

This is not a serious question. Even if you think he's expensive, which he's not, you tender him and trade him. 

[Doctor Gast]

Tender arbitration is a no-brainer.  I'm in no hurry to trade him either at this point.

[Matthew Lenz]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This is not a serious question. Even if you think he's expensive, which he's not, you tender him and trade him. 

Are you saying you want him traded?

[tony&rodney]

No dilemma, Duran gets paid.

Every player can be traded. The Twins need talent, specifically for defense. Falvey needs to find some transactions to upgrade the team. Duran has been victimized by less than stellar defense, so he would agree. Who gets traded is the work of DK. 

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Are you saying you want him traded?

No. That post didn't say that at all. 

[DJL44]

If Falvey non-tenders Duran he should be fired on the spot.

[bean5302]

Article title "dilemma" 
Summary from article:

Quote

What I Would Do
Tender him. The Twins would be absolutely nuts not to...

Article Category: Click-bait.

There is obviously no dilemma on whether or not to tender Duran. It will be interesting to see how Jax and Duran fare in their negotiations. I expect Jax to go to arbitration if the Twins offer something like what MLBTR predicted (an embarrassingly low $2.6MM) since I sure as hell would with such a laughably low number.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Article title "dilemma" 
Summary from article:

Article Category: Click-bait.

There is obviously no dilemma on whether or not to tender Duran. It will be interesting to see how Jax and Duran fare in their negotiations. I expect Jax to go to arbitration if the Twins offer something like what MLBTR predicted (an embarrassingly low $2.6MM) since I sure as hell would with such a laughably low number.

I hate to pile on, but. . . 

Stay tuned!  Next we have an article that asks this question. . . . 

Is Kirby Pucket really one of the top 25 MN Twins in history?

OR Was Rod Carew actually a good hitter?

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I hate to pile on, but. . . 

Stay tuned!  Next we have an article that asks this question. . . . 

Is Kirby Pucket really one of the top 25 MN Twins in history?

OR Was Rod Carew actually a good hitter?

Thing is .... nobody needs to read the articles if they are not inclined. It took me 30 seconds to read the article and I was not harmed. Virtually every article on the internet is click bait, the nature of the beast. I think you guys easily understand that as well as me.

Twins Daily has managed to collect (must be a better term) a host of writers pushing out content to Twins/baseball fans. It is pretty decent to have a site to go to that has stuff.

Anyone who wants to put together something can write an article and submit it for publishing on this site or have their own blog.

The offseason is painfully long and Falvey slept all last winter which made for thin discussion. Let us hope this offseason goes better.

 

[rdehring]

I expect that most TWins fans weren't happy with Duran's performance this year.  I suspect the most unhappy person was Duran.

I have had the feeling much of the summer/fall that he was never feeling 100% like his old self.  He missed much of spring training and then the first what, month or two of the season.  He then hurried back and never settled into the fireballer we remember.  Assuming he has a normal winter and spring, I expect the Duran of old in 2025.  And that isn't someone anyone will trade.

[Trov]

He will 100% be tendered.  Even if you do not want to pay him because you are worried about his numbers dropping he will have value in trade. You do not just let a talent like him walk to sign wherever in first year of arb. 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Article title "dilemma" 
Summary from article:

Article Category: Click-bait.

There is obviously no dilemma on whether or not to tender Duran. It will be interesting to see how Jax and Duran fare in their negotiations. I expect Jax to go to arbitration if the Twins offer something like what MLBTR predicted (an embarrassingly low $2.6MM) since I sure as hell would with such a laughably low number.

Well be prepared because if as implied and Twins give us nothing to talk about this off season, discussions here are going to be like Uncle John trying to fill awkward silence during Thanksgiving dinner.

"So, how about that weather we're having?"

[jmlease1]

Yeah, not a hard call at all on tendering. Must offer him arbitration. Must.

sadly, we shouldn't be having a serious conversation about whether or not to trade him with multiple years of team control and elite stuff in his arsenal, but the self-imposed payroll limits of the Pohlad Family somehow makes it a legit question. Which is horrible. 

He's an excellent pitcher and while 2024 wasn't as dominant as he's been in the previous 2 seasons, it's much more likely that's a result of the small sample sizes relievers often deal with rather than any serious decline. The bullpen would be substantially weaker without him and while Jax is more than capable of being the "closer", we're much better off having 2 of these guys

[bean5302]

25 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Well be prepared because if as implied and the Twins give us nothing to talk about this off season, discussions here are going to be like Uncle John trying to fill awkward silence during Thanksgiving dinner.

"So, how about that weather we're having?"

Be prepared for lots of call outs on click bait if the writers are sensationalizing topics. 

A title "Obvious Twins Arbitration Decision - Jhoan Duran" wouldn't have gotten the critical comments about click-bait.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Thing is .... nobody needs to read the articles if they are not inclined. It took me 30 seconds to read the article and I was not harmed. Virtually every article on the internet is click bait, the nature of the beast. I think you guys easily understand that as well as me.

Twins Daily has managed to collect (must be a better term) a host of writers pushing out content to Twins/baseball fans. It is pretty decent to have a site to go to that has stuff.

Anyone who wants to put together something can write an article and submit it for publishing on this site or have their own blog.

The offseason is painfully long and Falvey slept all last winter which made for thin discussion. Let us hope this offseason goes better.

 

You are absolutely correct.  We can all control our own reading.  My argument is with the tone of the article - establishing a sense of urgency under demonstrably false pretenses.  It is also that Twins Daily maintains a solid group of writers -- some I like much more or much less than others (and that's OK and normal) -- and I expect quality writing from the collective group and not just clickbait.  That's why I called it out in what was intended to be a humorous fashion.  Clickbait is for trying to lure readers on the general internet or social media by making people say "OMG, I have to see this!"  I would argue that it is not for a site such as this where an established base of readers wants high quality information.  That's why I signed up and I'm sure many others did as well.  I would call it constructive feedback.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Be prepared for lots of call outs on click bait if the writers are sensationalizing topics. 

A title "Obvious Twins Arbitration Decision - Jhoan Duran" wouldn't have gotten the critical comments about click-bait.

EXACTLY

[Vanimal46]

I’m rooting for chaos and think we should let Duran, Jax, Ryan, and Ober walk to free agency this offseason. The dilemma is way too much to handle. 

[DJL44]

I personally wouldn't mind a walk around the other teams in baseball instead of an article for every single player who might or might not get arbitration. I think the focus here sometimes gets too Twins centered.

What players on other teams might get non-tendered (or otherwise squeezed off the roster)? Would the Twins be interested in any of them?

[Parfigliano]

He will be tendered.  He will not be traded.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

33 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m rooting for chaos and think we should let Duran, Jax, Ryan, and Ober walk to free agency this offseason. The dilemma is way too much to handle. 

What's the message?

And are these the kind that have ambigous (if not miserable) grammer speling and, punctuation?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Does signing him to a long term contract count as tendering for the purposes of this discussion?

 

And what sort of return would folk not complain about if we traded him?

 

(Personally, i still want him to get his chance at starting. Yeah, i'm an incurable optimist.)

[Cap'n Piranha]

People seem to not understand that this is a series--the writers are going through every arb-eligible player, and dissecting every possibility (of which there are 3--tender, non-tender, tender and trade).  Anyone who thinks the writer is weighing all 3 possibilities equally misses the mark.  Every player should always have each of the three outcomes considered, even if the clear and obvious answer is an immediate no.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I personally wouldn't mind a walk around the other teams in baseball instead of an article for every single player who might or might not get arbitration. I think the focus here sometimes gets too Twins centered.

What players on other teams might get non-tendered (or otherwise squeezed off the roster)? Would the Twins be interested in any of them?

You think there is too much Twins coverage on a site called Twins Daily?  Do you also think that the Wall Street Journal is too focused on Wall Street?

[TopGunn#22]

I don't mind the alleged "click bait."  It's why we come here, to offer our opinion and see what other guys think.  All that's missing is a beer or other adult beverage and eye contact.  Come to think of it...some of you MIGHT be having a beer while reading this.

They will 100% tender him.  That much we all agree on.

But even though Mike Sixel threw it out there about tendering and then trading him, THAT'S the article I would have preferred.  Everybody is tradable, depending on what your getting.

So how would a trade of Duran straight up for Tristin Casas be received??  Jax moves to the closer role and Casas is our 1B for the next 10 years.  I could maybe live with that.  I have no idea how that deal would stack up on BBTV's.  What if you dealt Duran and either SWR or Miranda for Casas and Wilyer Abreu?  You add a Gold Glove nominated OF in Abreu who has some speed and pop and Casas.  I could live with that.  

Boston needs a closer, SP and a replacement 1B for Casas if they trade him.  

Duran, SWR and Miranda for Casas and Abreu?  How do the values of THAT trade stack up?

That's the kind of article I would have preferred.  And frankly, every one of our arbitration guys could or should be considered as a trade chip.  I'm not advocating for trading Duran.  He has been a dominant closer.  But what could we get for him if we traded him.  The Red Sox actually profile as a good match for a possible trade.  Who else does??  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm not advocating for trading Duran.  He has been a dominant closer.  But what could we get for him if we traded him.  The Red Sox actually profile as a good match for a possible trade.  Who else does??  

This is more or less where I am with Duran and also several other Twins players/prospects. My main objective for 2025 is for an improved defensive team.

I like Casas but his defense is not that hot, plus I wonder if Duran could be used to sway another team to give up something for our closer. Would Arizona trade Jordan Lawler for Duran plus someone like Topa? I'm also curious to know if Boston would part with Kyle Teel for a return that gives the Red Sox a starting pitcher?

I'll be the first to admit that some of my thoughts may be shaky, either asking for players who rate highly for other teams and/or proposing moving accomplished/promising members of the Twins roster. Falvey needs to make some deals this offseason because he sure didn't move the needle last offseason. I don't believe the Twins can just roll it back with the roster as is.

[ashbury]

The headline is missing its question mark so that I can make fun of it.

[rv78]

40 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Falvey needs to make some deals this offseason because he sure didn't move the needle last offseason. I don't believe the Twins can just roll it back with the roster as is.

#1. I don't trust Falvey to make a good deal based off of his needle last year.

#2. Yes, they can roll it back again. Not adding payroll puts them in the position to do the same thing. I'd go so far as to say, they won't add 1 significant Free Agent and they won't trade for a difference maker either, because they can't afford it.... Thanks to the Correa contract.

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

People seem to not understand that this is a series--the writers are going through every arb-eligible player, and dissecting every possibility (of which there are 3--tender, non-tender, tender and trade).  Anyone who thinks the writer is weighing all 3 possibilities equally misses the mark.  Every player should always have each of the three outcomes considered, even if the clear and obvious answer is an immediate no.

I fully understand but we can go ahead and skip a few names on the list because they’re no brainer decisions. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

<Snip>

But even though Mike Sixel threw it out there about tendering and then trading him, THAT'S the article I would have preferred.  Everybody is tradable, depending on what your getting.

<Snip>

That's the kind of article I would have preferred.  And frankly, every one of our arbitration guys could or should be considered as a trade chip.  I'm not advocating for trading Duran.  He has been a dominant closer.  But what could we get for him if we traded him.  The Red Sox actually profile as a good match for a possible trade.  Who else does??  

Along with looking at the “what would Duran realistically bring” angle, going the “what would an extension look like” route for an article is a more realistic dilemma than “should he be tendered?”