Welcome Back, Edouard Julien. Thank Goodness You're Alright.

[Matthew Trueblood]

If a hitter can have the yips, this one did. Now, thankfully, it looks like he's returning to himself.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Some players shy away from the word "yips". Some call the hideous, mortifying, often career-ending disease of mind and body that robs a pitcher of their control and makes them a laughingstock at whom no one can even bring themselves to laugh "the thing," instead. "Yips" is too cute. The reality of being one of the best athletes alive and suddenly losing contact with that talent isn't cute. It's eviscerating, emasculating, and excruciating.

It also only really happens to pitchers, and to fielders. There's a lot of time, when you're out there on the mound or when you pick up a routine ground ball and just need to throw out a plodding runner. There's too much time. Sometimes, things from far beyond the diamond creep into the mind of a player holding the ball. Sometimes, they feel calm and focused, but their body refuses to accept that message. In either case, though, when a player utterly loses the ability to hit (or even approximate) a target, it quickly becomes a problem of thinking too much. Throwing is a complex physical movement, especially in the ways it has to be done on a baseball diamond. Our bodies learn to do it, and then we code it into an unconscious set of instructions and try to compartmentalize it. When the conscious mind comes back into the throwing motion, it sometimes begets a spasm--a fit.

That can't happen to hitters. A hitter can be thinking too much at the plate. In fact, that happens often. We don't call it the yips, though, because a hitter who's thinking too much rarely takes huge, uncoordinated, lunging and tumbling swings. No, when a hitter is thinking too much at the plate, it looks like this.

And even more often, it looks like this:

 

 

Edouard Julien had to go down to St. Paul earlier this season because his sophomore campaign came completely off the rails. Why? He was thinking too much. This is not a chime-in with the old-school ex-players and retirees who lament that the game is too obsessed with analytics, now. It's just the reality, for this one player. Julien got badly confused in his approach this season, as he tried to adapt to the complexity of the interactions between himself and big-league pitchers in the wake of their latest round of adjustments to him. When he came back up briefly last month, it looked worse than ever.

There were a few occasions during July, as in the first video above, in which Julien did guess at pitch type and location and take a hack, but he didn't come especially close to the ball, because he wasn't really seeing and reacting to it. He was trying to think in concert with the pitcher, forgetting that the pitcher's whole objective would be to subvert that attempt to harmonize.

Very often, the effect was something like watching a boxer without any serious training in the sport. Julien still had his physical tools, but he looked like no one ever taught him to defend himself--to keep those hands up and watch for the hook.

The clips above all came amid a stretch, from Jul. 13-30, in which Julien had 34 plate appearances divided between Triple-A and the majors. In those trips to the plate, he struck out 18 times. He swung at under a third of the pitches he saw, yet whiffed on 40% of his swings. Almost two months after being sent down in the hopes of being fixed, he was more broken than ever.

He's back.

If you can take the anxiety of another potential strikeout out of it, two-strike hitting is the surest cure for hitters' yips. You're never more reactive, never more natural and intuitive, than when you're simply trying to see the ball and meet it. Julien got himself far off track early this year by trying not to make that adjustment in those counts, and instead continuing to seek maximal damage. Then, the anxiety came. The hit above is symbolic of the journey back to himself that has taken place over the last few weeks.

Since Jul. 31, Julien has had 70 plate appearances between Triple-A and MLB. He's batting .271/.386/.475. His swing rate is up to 42.9%, and his contact rate on those swings is up to 72.4%. He's still striking out at a relatively high rate, but it's nowhere near what it was before that, and it's come with more walks, more authoritative contact, and an ability to defend himself.

Last night, Julien had an early hit, and two hard-hit outs early in counts. Then, in the top of the ninth, with the Twins down to their last out, he worked a full count against triple-digit strike thrower Robert Suarez. It was precisely the kind of moment in which he'd have crumpled in defenseless fashion at this time last month. Instead:

That pitch wasn't quite where Suarez would have wanted it, but it's just the kind of offering that would have frozen Julien before. And then on the next pitch:

It looks like nothing. It's just a foul ball. But Julien fought off two straight 100-mile-per-hour pitches, when failing to do so would have meant the end of the game. The walk he drew on the next pitch, just the 10th one Suarez has issued all year, was almost a formality. At the end of a great night of at-bats, after a weekend of some encouraging signs, this battle served notice: Julien's gotten back out of his head, and into the saddle. 

That doesn't mean he should start every day for the next fortnight. it doesn't mean he won't continue to strike out at problematic rates. It doesn't have to mean any of that, right now. Julien has seen The Thing, and he's survived his encounter with it. Whatever struggles are ahead, the Twins' young hitter has put a little bit of existential terror behind him. That's a big deal, and even though it didn't quite lead to a comeback Monday night, it made a difference in the game. Suarez might not be as available for the rest of the series as he would have been if Julien had gone down feebly. The Twins found a bit of consolation at the end of a tough night. And the yips no longer waft through their clubhouse.

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[Craig Arko]

Hope so. This seems a wee bit premature. 

[Doctor Gast]

Julien has always been Julien, the difference is the league discovered his weakness & exploited it. He had to adjust & become a better hitter & not strike out so much. Just like Jeffers, Larnach & Wallner had to do. He had a good game last night & I wish him well but can he maintain that against pitchers more familiar with him? IMO we had more of a need at CF due to Buxton's absence, & would have preferred Keirsey to finally have a chance after producing all season at AAA. 

[MN_ExPat]

Baseball is difficult, unforgiving, and exceptionally cruel... and that is often at the best of times.  In the dark times, it becomes an existential crisis that can consume a man's soul when it is your whole world. 

God be with you Edouard, I will continue to pray that you fully find your way out of the Valley of the Shadow of Death.  Trust the process and believe in the Lord and he will deliver you.

Amen

[LambchoP]

He had a decent game last night, but he's instilled no confidence in his at bats since his call up, and really all year. Now that the scouting reports are out on him, he needs to make a major adjustment and soon. As someone else said, I would have rather seen Keirsey called up to replace Buxton. The dude has done absolutely everything he can in AAA. Hits for average, a little pop, steals bases and plays a solid all three OF positions. How was that not more valuable than a strikeout prone Julien. Maybe if Lee would have been healthy we wouldn't have called up Julien. Either way I want to see if Keirsey can continue his successful year in MLB

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Let’s hope you are correct.  He seems to have made some adjustments to the adjustments that the pitchers have made for him.  If he can keep ahead of that curve, he will be very successful and back to the Julien we saw last year.  If not, it’s back to the drawing board again for him.  

I do think that he has what it takes to be an excellent player.  However, we, as fans, forget that there are almost always ups and downs on the way to the final product.  Again, let’s hope that this is the start of something great!

 

[DJL44]

It may help Julien that he doesn't have to worry about too many different pitches for the reliever. He's been hitting fastballs and missing breaking balls. I agree that it is good that he is swinging rather than watching strikes go by when he has 2 strikes.

[Road trip]

Exceptional game for Julien last night, if you ignore some outcomes (two hard hit outs) and look at the process.  With a bit more luck he'd have been 3 for 3 with a walk.  Solid glove work as well, nearly bailing out Santana from his error (alas, followed by another error from Zebby).

Was it an outlier....blind hog finds an acorn, or the start of a trend?  Too soon to know.  However it is the first sign of hope in a very long time.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It may help Julien that he doesn't have to worry about too many different pitches for the reliever. He's been hitting fastballs and missing breaking balls. I agree that it is good that he is swinging rather than watching strikes go by when he has 2 strikes.

The breaking balls will be the test. He never stopped hitting the fastball, but the non-fastballs ate him alive. Last night was a nice first sign of life as he hit a changeup, sweeper, and slider in his first 3 ABs. King threw him 1 sinker, otherwise it was all offspeed stuff. I'd guess that's the treatment he'll get from most starters until he starts to produce against those pitches.

[thelanges5]

It would be great if you’re right. We need 2023 Julien right now. Eddie Julien will rule again. 
 

Where’s back half Kep? We need him right now too. 🏟️⚾️

[bean5302]

Julien needs to swing more at the MLB level. I do think there's a mental component involved, but pitchers have always eaten him up inside. Julien mirrors the past version of Larnach and former Twins prospect Aaron Hicks in a lot of ways. Passive at the plate. Wait for mistake pitches. Depending on how bad the mistake needs to be, the outcome varies. Larnach adjusted his approach and while his BB rate tanked by about 50%, he's been much more effective overall. From maybe a tick below league average to 10% above league average. Julien's got more potential, IMHO as he isn't quite so extreme on his splits against pitches as Larnach, and Julien handles a much more valuable position.

Julien was riding the razor's edge on sustainable positive outcome last year, and he started off really well again this year. Honestly, the Twins pulled the plug on him pretty quickly, but with Jose Miranda hitting like he was, it was between Kirilloff and Julien. Julien is the much more valuable player and more likely to be part of the franchise in the future so the Twins chose to invest in Julien being able to make adjustments. That said, the demotion clearly came as a shock to him. He wasn't going to be allowed to work on stuff at the MLB level, and he was quickly demoted again in July in favor of Brooks Lee, despite Lee hitting very poorly and not having Julien's track record. I'm sure that was a strong message.

Until Julien buys into the philosophy of doing what you can with what you've got to work with (swinging more), he's not going to be effective at this point. I'm not sure a couple plate appearances is enough to convince me he's done that.

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion... Julien can hit. I have high hopes for him and I'd be willing to bet on him. I'd like to see his patience uptick a notch or two toward the aggressiveness side of the ledger. It's Ok to wait on your pitch for a couple of strikes but once he has two strikes on him... I'd like to see him stop looking at those called third strikes a little. 

Young players can go through bad stretches and old players can go through bad stretches. Unless you are a superstar and there are only a handful of those guys in the league... I don't see much difference between a young player and vet when it comes to the ups and downs of a season or career. 

Young players with options can be sent down and we assume that it is some sort of being too young to adjust thing. 

Old players can't be sent down so they are allowed to work kinks out at the major league level and we assume  that it's just a vet doing what a vet was supposed to be doing. 

When October hits and we are in the playoffs. I'd place my bets on Julien over others currently on the roster.  

[Trov]

A couple of good plate appearances up here does not mean he is fully back. Hopefully he is, but he will need to keep adjusting.  Before those last few games he was still watching way too many good pitches.  He was looking scared to hit at times just hoping for walks. 

[jmlease1]

Julien had good ABs last night. Hopefully it's the start of a trend. He definitely looked like he had a plan and confidence up there. I think the second AB was the one where I thought, "that looks a LOT better from him". Took a pitch for a strike...but it was a really well-placed pitch, low and inside that would have been difficult to do anything with. Later in the AB, he gets a ball out over more the plate and put a good swing on it, had good hard contact...just happened to be too close to the CF. Much less passive, showed good zone recognition, and it was a good swing with hard contact, swinging with intent.

We'll see how he goes. It's been a rough season for him at the plate, but he's better than this and I expect his talent to shine through. he's hit at every level (including last season in MLB), so this feels more like a bump that needed correction rather than a collapse or sign that he can't play at this level. He's definitely improved defensively, which is nice.

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Julien had good ABs last night. Hopefully it's the start of a trend. He definitely looked like he had a plan and confidence up there. I think the second AB was the one where I thought, "that looks a LOT better from him". Took a pitch for a strike...but it was a really well-placed pitch, low and inside that would have been difficult to do anything with. Later in the AB, he gets a ball out over more the plate and put a good swing on it, had good hard contact...just happened to be too close to the CF. Much less passive, showed good zone recognition, and it was a good swing with hard contact, swinging with intent.

We'll see how he goes. It's been a rough season for him at the plate, but he's better than this and I expect his talent to shine through. he's hit at every level (including last season in MLB), so this feels more like a bump that needed correction rather than a collapse or sign that he can't play at this level. He's definitely improved defensively, which is nice.

It's worth noting his "rough season" is still wRC+ 91 for a 2B and a 1.6 WAR full season pace.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

He was looking scared to hit at times just hoping for walks. 

I think Matthew was addressing this not swinging/indecision as the yips. That term is most commonly used for players who have an issue throwing the ball but it is actually a real thing for hitters too. There isn't fear related to the yips. We shall see how this plays out but what a difficult season thus far for Julien.

[Linus]

We will find out after 1000 at bats. People refer to his “talent” which I’m not sure of. He doesn’t seem overly athletic to me rather he developed a unique hitting style. His defensive limitations put more pressure on the bat to perform. I doubt he will ever be as good as last year and probably is better than what he has shown this year. I wish him well because he is going to have to hit at a pretty high level to stay in the bigs. 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, Linus said:

We will find out after 1000 at bats. People refer to his “talent” which I’m not sure of. He doesn’t seem overly athletic to me rather he developed a unique hitting style. His defensive limitations put more pressure on the bat to perform. I doubt he will ever be as good as last year and probably is better than what he has shown this year. I wish him well because he is going to have to hit at a pretty high level to stay in the bigs.

Over 1400 minor league PAs at a .904 OPS. OBP over .400.

 

Pretty solid record of hitting talent. 

[mickster]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Nice article Matthew.  I think you hit the nail on the head and explained his issue quite well.  His most recent call up is a SSS and we need to see more.  It's a good sign and I truly hope he works his way through this.  If he cannot, then I suggest he go to Driveline in the off season and get some more help.

hoping he plays himself back to a Major League player then either him or Lee can be used to get some pitching in the offseason

[RpR]

MLB reality:

Jake Cave first year came up with similar numbers to Julien's first year, now he is a floating player but still in the bigs mostly.

Deja Vu?

[Linus]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Over 1400 minor league PAs at a .904 OPS. OBP over .400.

 

Pretty solid record of hitting talent. 

Yea I think big league at bats are the key here. 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

Yea I think big league at bats are the key here. 

628 PAs, .773 OPS.

 

[Linus]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

628 PAs, .773 OPS.

 

We will see. Half of that (roughly I go from memory) is from last year with a 374 babip. I hope he turns into Rod Carew but this book is in its first chapter. 

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

Yea I think big league at bats are the key here. 

You mean , yesterday, is old news, today is what counts?

How ever long Ed is up , this is probably his defining year.

 

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

We will see. Half of that (roughly I go from memory) is from last year with a 374 babip. I hope he turns into Rod Carew but this book is in its first chapter. 

[big dog]

I don't think it's safe to say he's back yet. I think it's more that he rolled back the covers a bit and peeked out. Hopefully he gets back to where he was last year, and soon.

[bean5302]

I'm not sure people are on the same page. Julien doesn't need to be some .900 OPS or .800 OPS hitter who makes the All Star team every year. He plays 2B (YMMV on how well you think he does that), and all he needs to do is hit above league average to be an every day player for somebody while earning league minimum and having options. That's really valuable.

IMHO, every day position players should be expected to produce 2.5 WAR in a season for a playoff team. Anything at or above 2.0 WAR is a position player who isn't really dragging a playoff team's performance down. Anything at or above 3.0 WAR is a position player who is partially carrying the team to the playoffs.
45 win baseline AAA replacement level.
+2.5 x 9 position/batters
+1.0 x 4 bench
+2.5 x 5 rotation
+0.5 x 8 bullpen
That's 88 wins. In the ballpark of where a team will need to be chasing a playoff spot.

Average-ish 2B with a wRC+ 110 batting line is going to be a 3 WAR player (see: Gavin Lux). Even at a wRC+ 100 batting line, you're talking 2 WAR. Playable as an everyday starter.

With the Twins slashing payroll and already over next year's budget just with the players they control, there are some guys who are not going to be back. Julien is potentially one of the pieces the Twins could trade. Castro and Kirilloff are almost certainly gone which will make parting with Julien much harder. How the Twins view Payton Eeles and Brooks Lee will likely have a big impact. I'm all for Julien hitting well and recovering value for the team.
 

[AKTwinsFan]

Even the very best hitters go on slumps. It happens but he's gaining confidence at the plate, "seeing" the ball.