Is Manuel Margot, Like, Allergic to Pinch-Hitting?

[Greggory Masterson]

It’s past the point of absurdity. The man who leads baseball in pinch-hitting appearances does not have a single hit. How long will this go on?

Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Manuel Margot effectively has one job: hitting lefty pitching. Manuel Margot has hit lefty pitching, but please don’t make him pinch-hit lefty (or any other kind of) pitching.

In a Rocco Baldelli offense, the lineup is malleable, all the way to the final out. Based on the matchup with the opposing pitcher, any player can play on any given day, in any inning. Baldelli is ready to empty the bench and play a matchup game if the other team brings in a lefty reliever.

Margot has been called on all year in those situations, and he has not delivered, beginning with his five-pinch-hitting appearances in the team’s first six games. His 29 pinch-hitting appearances, as of Jul. 25, are the most in baseball. His zero hits are, ah, tied for last in baseball. He has started 43 games, but came in as a pinch hitter for an additional 29. Forty percent of the games he’s played in have featured a pinch-hit appearance. For a role player, that’s enough to tank a season.

On the year, Margot has a .138 OPS pinch-hitting, because he’s taken four walks, but even those can’t save his 0-25 line. He’s having the worst season of his career overall, with a .628 OPS, about 20% below average. He’s never been a great hitter, but his career average is about 10% below average.

Yet somehow, outside of pinch-hitting, Margot has done his job at the plate. If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. Let’s dig in.

First, Margot was acquired to hit lefty pitching. The Twins have struggled for years getting production versus lefties from their corner outfield spots, mainly because their most prominent options there are lefties themselves. On the season, Margot has hit lefty pitchers very well, at .298 with a .789 OPS (24% above average). That actually matches his career averages against southpaws. He’s a bit inconsistent year-to-year, but overall, he’s got a 122 OPS+ against lefties for his career.

That .789 OPS includes his pinch-hitting appearances, by the way. If you exclude his pinch-hitting appearances, he has a .354 average and a .903 OPS (50% above average) in 86 plate appearances. Managers stomp their feet and make tugboat noises while their eyes become giant hearts and pop out of their sockets when they see a platoon hitter like that. In games he starts against lefties, he’s got an .898 OPS, and has typically batted leadoff.

The ugly side of this coin, of course, is that he’s doing almost nothing against righties, slashing a pitiful .183/.246/.248 overall. It’d be better to have Christian Vázquez at the plate than Margot. However, with the team the Twins have constructed, Margot shouldn’t be needed against righties, so it’s a bit beside the point.

However, if Margot can’t be trusted to do anything productive as a pinch-hitter, it slightly crimps Baldelli’s style. Margot has never been a good pinch-hitter, but this season has taken it to a new level. His pinch-hitting OPS had been .584 in previous years, about 40% below league average over 66 plate appearances. (Notice that he's had 66 pinch-hitting appearances in the eight years leading up to 2024, but 29 already this season.) That’s over 100 points of OPS below his career OPS of .694.

That’s not uncommon, as most players end up about 15% worse as pinch-hitters. It’s not an easy job. In 2024, the league OPS is .708, and the OPS among pinch-hitters is .625. His performance exists in the context of what came before him, but Margot’s performance this year has been comical.

One of the strangest bits of data for Margot this year has been his performance after pinch-hitting. He’s had some clutch hits in games he didn’t start, but they’ve all been after his first plate appearance. After his initial pinch-hitting appearances, he’s slashing .286/.318/.429 in 22 other plate appearances.

As I mentioned, the further we break down his season’s performance into things like “22 plate appearances after coming in as a pinch-hitter and getting additional plate appearances,” the less meaningful it gets, but this all paints a picture of an oddity who cannot, for the life of him, do this one very specific task.

In the past 10 years, the greatest number of plate appearances as a pinch-hitter without a single hit by the end of the season is 24 (Alec Burleson, 2023; Tucker Barnhart, 2019). Make it the last 50 years, and only 11 players have had more than 20 pinch-hit trips without a hit. The record belongs to Jonny Gomes, who had 34 plate appearances in the role without getting a hit in 2011. In any given year, it typically maxes out around 15. Maybe Margot gets one before the year ends, but his 29 is incredibly glaring right now. He's already second to Gomes in the last half-century.

Unfortunately, his role in a Rocco Baldelli offense requires production as a pinch-hitter. His offensive job (we don’t need to focus on his defense today, thankfully) this season is to hit lefties, either as a starter or off the bench. If he can only do one of those well, that hamstrings Baldelli--which may be a good thing, depending on your feelings about Baldelli’s management. For much of the year, there hasn’t been a great alternative for a bench bat, especially in games that Ryan Jeffers catches, as Kyle Farmer has often been the other platoon hitter.

Hopefully, as the season reaches its stretch run, Margot’s pinch-hitting duties will be redistributed to others, including Carlos Santana or José Miranda. The true sicko in me wants Margot to continue to be the most-used pinch hitter in MLB, but that’s probably not what’s best for the team. Even Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach’s paltry hitting against lefties (.414 and .565 OPS, respectively) would far outpace Margot’s pinch-hitting this year, which is relevant because Wallner and Larnach are the hitters Margot would primarily hit for.

This is a lot of hand-wringing about 29 plate appearances, and there’s a lot of noise in isolating 10% of a player’s plate appearances for a season, but it’s gotten to the point it needs to be acknowledged. No, Margot’s true talent level probably isn’t a .143 OPS as a pinch hitter, but, man, there’s something goofy afoot.

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[mikelink45]

For a team that is so stat driven the decision to ph Margot is just beyond absurdity.  Sure he will eventually get a hit, but too little too late. 

[Joe Schmitt]

"If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything."  

I love this, and plan to use it myself going forward.  Outstanding.

[CRF]

Probably not...but his manager is certainly allergic to stop trying to use him in the PH role. 

[gregens]

Very nicely written article.   

[Karbo]

I've been told the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

For a team that is so stat driven the decision to ph Margot is just beyond absurdity.  Sure he will eventually get a hit, but too little too late. 

Wondering the same thing. 0-25. Not sure how the analytics point to Margot as being a viable option at PH. Perhaps the analytics did at some point, like in March or April. But, now? Rocco either needs a new computer or someone needs to explain to him what 0-25 means.

Margot makes me long for the days of Randy Bush and Gene Larkin. Those two always seemed to come through in PH opportunities.

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  Baldelli is one of the most confusing and stubborn managers ever.  He continues sending Margo up there in pinch hitting and watch him fail in that role.  Sheer stubbornness.  Just like not letting some lefties bat against lefty pitchers.  How can you expect your young players to become solid major league players if they aren't allowed to bat against lefties?  It makes no sense.  This is what separates Baldelli from the great managers.  He's locked in to his system and is inflexible to actually managing a game.  If the Twins had an actual manager I think they would be well in first place.

[Doctor Gast]

 "If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. " 

So true & very well put. I'm not sure if Baldelli is to blame, he just does what the boss commands. He's great at keep beating a dead dog & make the stats say whatever he wants, to justify his decisions.

[tony&rodney]

The role of bench bat and pinch hitter is a rare item. There are a few players who like coming off the bench to hit. Others seem to have a need to be a part of the game before they bat. It might be impossible to explain but Margot looks futile when he pinch hits and the results are glaring.

[Patzky]

I'm actually glad you mentioned how (comparatively) successful Margot has been once he gets that first AB out of the way. One could argue everything from psychology to a vision problem to try and figure why. But it's something I've subconsciously observed too.

 

[Joe Schmitt]

The statistical response would be to say that 25 AB are a small sample size.  Which is true.  But I'm very sure that if I ran the calculations 0-25 vs whatever his non-pinch hitting AB figures are (I'm too lazy to look them up) would in fact be a statistically significant difference. Which means that the sample size is large enough to draw conclusions from. That's particularly true here, given that there is an actual reason that could explain the difference - as noted above some players find it hard to come in cold.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Wondering the same thing. 0-25. Not sure how the analytics point to Margot as being a viable option at PH. Perhaps the analytics did at some point, like in March or April. But, now? Rocco either needs a new computer or someone needs to explain to him what 0-25 means.

Margot makes me long for the days of Randy Bush and Gene Larkin. Those two always seemed to come through in PH opportunities.

……btw, both left handed hitters facing a skewed % of RH pitching then & would be now.

I get Margot has been beyond terrible as a PH. The biggest reason he PH’s v. LH pitching is to get the other Team to make a move back to a RH pitcher to help the bulk of the line-up & to get a guy who has a rhythm going to get removed from the game. Substituting and getting an automatic out is not productive - no argument for that - but the logic to get the reliever out of the game and to force using more guys in opponent’s Pen is good logic.

I do not have the data but would assume that of his 29 PA’s as a PH, Margot has faced a RH pitcher (essentially always after a pitching change) in his AB’s……at least 25-26 of the 29 PA’s.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article.  Baldelli is one of the most confusing and stubborn managers ever.  He continues sending Margo up there in pinch hitting and watch him fail in that role.  Sheer stubbornness.  Just like not letting some lefties bat against lefty pitchers.  How can you expect your young players to become solid major league players if they aren't allowed to bat against lefties?  It makes no sense.  This is what separates Baldelli from the great managers.  He's locked in to his system and is inflexible to actually managing a game.  If the Twins had an actual manager I think they would be well in first place.

So, I get the frustration & joining the club that likes to beat on Baldelli. Everyone has their opinion……no problem.

However, to say they’d have the best record in baseball and be leading the Division if Baldelli was not the Manager is just fantasy talk that sounds way over the top, IMO.

Team is on a 90 win pace as of this morning. Prior to season starting, assuming BETTER HEALTH than they have had over past 4 months, they were supposed to win 88-92 games, for whatever those predictions are worth?

Team has a shot to win the Division and most would assume, at this point, they have an excellent chance of making the Playoffs. I guess expectations for Manager & Club can always be higher but, with the health or lack of from a few key guys, I think he’s doing a good job with what is there to work with.

And then there’s Wallner’s start to season - Kirilloff’s collapse - Julien’s non-existence after month one - Varland contributing less than one would imagine……..coupled with the injuries.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

……btw, both left handed hitters facing a skewed % of RH pitching then & would be now.

I get Margot has been beyond terrible as a PH. The biggest reason he PH’s v. LH pitching is to get the other Team to make a move back to a RH pitcher to help the bulk of the line-up & to get a guy who has a rhythm going to get removed from the game. Substituting and getting an automatic out is not productive - no argument for that - but the logic to get the reliever out of the game and to force using more guys in opponent’s Pen is good logic.

I do not have the data but would assume that of his 29 PA’s as a PH, Margot has faced a RH pitcher (essentially always after a pitching change) in his AB’s……at least 25-26 of the 29 PA’s.

Strong disagree. The lefty reliever that comes in is rarely being taken out for Margot and isn't being pulled any earlier because of Margot. I'd argue the opposite and say that the Twins are the ones being manipulated into taking out their better hitters in order to get Margot into the game to go 0-29. He's not putting fear into any other manager at this point.

Manuel Margot has 20 PA as a pinch hitter against lefties. He is not getting the reliever out of the game. He's going 0-fer against 69% lefties and then being left in to face the righty reliever later in the game who he's hitting .184/.246/.248/.494 against.

[LambchoP]

Margot is terrible, I cringe Everytime I see him at the plate AND in the outfield. I've got to believe someone like Martin or Keirsey could outhit and outplay him in the field. I just read the article on Minnesotatwins.com saying that the plan is for Rocco to continue throwing Margot out there as a PH and hope he starts hitting. How is that a successful plan, especially when we're trying to make the playoffs!?!

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Strong disagree. The lefty reliever that comes in is rarely being taken out for Margot and isn't being pulled any earlier because of Margot. I'd argue the opposite and say that the Twins are the ones being manipulated into taking out their better hitters in order to get Margot into the game to go 0-29. He's not putting fear into any other manager at this point.

Manuel Margot has 20 PA as a pinch hitter against lefties. He is not getting the reliever out of the game. He's going 0-fer against 69% lefties and then being left in to face the righty reliever later in the game who he's hitting .184/.246/.248/.494 against.

I believe you - where do you find those numbers? My assumption, as I stated, the pitcher was getting turned around nearly always. The post shows his BA is less v. lefties when including his Pinch Hits so you are being validated there.

If his OPS v. LH pitching is .789 & his average is .298, (inclusive of PH appearances) I think the Team, Baldelli, etc. needs to keep sending him up there and assume the % will start to balance.

He was hitting .100 or so going into May overall, and 3 months later he’s at .235 with really good numbers v. LH pitching……….. with a .354 BA in non- PH situations.

I’m not in love with the guy but he seems to be doing, in general, what they acquired him to do. He was a poor PH before he came to Minnesota - he hit LH pitching well. Doing same things. Obviously, Ofer as a PH is unbelievable - can’t cover that up!

[saviking]

The conundrum of analytics.. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I believe you - where do you find those numbers? My assumption, as I stated, the pitcher was getting turned around nearly always. The post shows his BA is less v. lefties when including his Pinch Hits so you are being validated there.

If his OPS v. LH pitching is .789 & his average is .298, (inclusive of PH appearances) I think the Team, Baldelli, etc. needs to keep sending him up there and assume the % will start to balance.

He was hitting .100 or so going into May overall, and 3 months later he’s at .235 with really good numbers v. LH pitching……….. with a .354 BA in non- PH situations.

I’m not in love with the guy but he seems to be doing, in general, what they acquired him to do. He was a poor PH before he came to Minnesota - he hit LH pitching well. Doing same things. Obviously, Ofer as a PH is unbelievable - can’t cover that up!

I used the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboards to get the info. And I'd actually argue the strategy would be even worse if the pitcher was getting flipped almost every time. Then you're giving Margot multiple shots against a righty that you know he can't hit just to miss 1 AB of a lefty on lefty and sacrificing the 2nd AB of the better hitting lefty against the back end righty reliever.

I'm quite positive they'll keep using him the exact same way. Their strategies around pinch hitting and platooning are season long strategies. They don't expect to win every move, they just believe that over 162 games they'll win at least 51% of the time and that gives them a slight advantage on the margins.

My problem isn't that he's not fulfilling the role they pictured for him offensively, it's that they have the role at all. I don't think anyone would argue he's been as good defensively as the team expected him to be, but he's doing about as well as they could have expected offensively. I just don't like the idea of rostering guys who have 1 skill, and that skill is very rarely used. Same problem I had with Garlick. To me, if you're going to roster a guy just to use against lefties at least get one who can be serviceable against righties. If the idea is that even an average righty can perform better against lefties than lefties can, why not get an actual average righty? They don't have to be Farmer, Margot, Garlick types who have such dramatic left/right splits. 

Margot is giving them everything they expected offensively (other than the 0-fer PHing). I just don't think giving a roster spot to that role is a good use of resources. And if you can't PH well against lefties you're of even less use. What would Martin's overall numbers look like if he were in that spot instead? He has an overall higher OPS already (although, still not good) while Margot is being put in the optimal position for him to thrive while Martin is getting scraps. Martin is better defensively (while still not good), on the bases, and against righties. Why give Margot that spot when Martin appears to be the better all around player? Simply because Margot is better in 106 PAs against lefties? That's my problem with the strategy. Not that Margot isn't performing mostly as expected. But that the role itself shouldn't exist.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

People are missing a few things:

Going 0-anything at this level requires a certain amount of bad luck.  Line drives hit right at people, etc.

Not everyone is cut out to be a good PH.  The mental makeup to sit for 2 hours then come in and be a productive hitter can be difficult.  Margot has historically not been a great PH, I am sure the luck factor is part of this year's equation too.

Margot is a useful piece to this team.  Changing roles and expectations can mess with a players confidence.  I  guarantee you that nobody feels worse about his PH this year than Margot.
 

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

So many complaints that 0-for-25 means Baldelli needs to stop using Margot as a pinch-hitter. As Greggory pointed out, Margot has a career 122 OPS+ against LHP. I guarantee the Twins coaching staff and front office care more about that sample size (983 PA) than Margot's hitless streak when pinch-hitting this season or his career numbers as a pinch-hitter, both of which are significantly smaller samples. I'd like to see his xBA and xwOBA in those pinch hits, not because I'd expect them to be great, but at least we'd have more evidence that it's really unlucky to pull off what Margot's done this year. 

While I've got your attention, I want to also point out that this frequent pinch-hitting is often how playoff games are managed. Why reserve certain strategies for the playoffs instead of using them in the regular season to get everyone acclimated? Even though Margot is struggling, he's going to be far more comfortable pinch-hitting in the playoffs than hitters on other teams because he's already done it plenty in the regular season. 

[BH67]

So Manuel needs to take a Benadryl before he pinch-hits. Non-drowsy version, of course.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

So many complaints that 0-for-25 means Baldelli needs to stop using Margot as a pinch-hitter. As Greggory pointed out, Margot has a career 122 OPS+ against LHP. I guarantee the Twins coaching staff and front office care more about that sample size (983 PA) than Margot's hitless streak when pinch-hitting this season or his career numbers as a pinch-hitter, both of which are significantly smaller samples. I'd like to see his xBA and xwOBA in those pinch hits, not because I'd expect them to be great, but at least we'd have more evidence that it's really unlucky to pull off what Margot's done this year. 

While I've got your attention, I want to also point out that this frequent pinch-hitting is often how playoff games are managed. Why reserve certain strategies for the playoffs instead of using them in the regular season to get everyone acclimated? Even though Margot is struggling, he's going to be far more comfortable pinch-hitting in the playoffs than hitters on other teams because he's already done it plenty in the regular season. 

Pinch hitting is a specific skill. Ignoring his current season and career pinch hitting numbers would be a foolish use of data. Similar to DHing. It's a different mindset and skill. Ignoring a player's numbers as a DH vs a position player would be foolish.

[twinfan]

I always coach players who are in a big slump to try to bunt for a hit. I don't know if Margot has tried this (though he probably has failed if he did). At least we are winning more games than losing so are we still winning the games in which he appears? Is he the main cause when we lose? If he isn't getting any hits, is he at least moving runners or hitting the ball well? I don't see many of the games but only counted 10 of the games that he pinch hit in as losses and who knows if they lost because of him. That last stat would need to be checked.

Also, what counts is what you do today and going forward, not what you did yesterday. So let's hope the law of averages catches up and he goes 10 for the next 20 pinch hit appearances. With all the injuries, Rocco has no choice but to keep using him.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

I do not have the data but would assume that of his 29 PA’s as a PH, Margot has faced a RH pitcher (essentially always after a pitching change) in his AB’s……at least 25-26 of the 29 PA’s.

You've posted this nonsense before. It's false. 

In fact, it's just the opposite. Opposing managers manipulate Rocco into a PH by Margo on purpose, to get better hitters out of the game. 

 

[USAFChief]

Margot is a substandard outfielder, period. He's a poor hitter with bad defensive chops.

He adds nothing. Even as a "lefty killer" his OPS vs lefties isn't as good as you'd want, or can find. That's compounded by the fact he's often inserted as a pinch hitter in the middle innings, which results in additional PAs later in the game, which almost always come against RH pitching. At the expense of a better hitter.

And for the record, he has only 106 PAs against LH pitching all season. He has 114 PAs against RH pitching, ferpetesakes.

It's a wasted roster spot that should be taken away from Rocco so he can't use him.

[karcherd]

50 minutes ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

So many complaints that 0-for-25 means Baldelli needs to stop using Margot as a pinch-hitter. As Greggory pointed out, Margot has a career 122 OPS+ against LHP. I guarantee the Twins coaching staff and front office care more about that sample size (983 PA) than Margot's hitless streak when pinch-hitting this season or his career numbers as a pinch-hitter, both of which are significantly smaller samples. I'd like to see his xBA and xwOBA in those pinch hits, not because I'd expect them to be great, but at least we'd have more evidence that it's really unlucky to pull off what Margot's done this year. 

While I've got your attention, I want to also point out that this frequent pinch-hitting is often how playoff games are managed. Why reserve certain strategies for the playoffs instead of using them in the regular season to get everyone acclimated? Even though Margot is struggling, he's going to be far more comfortable pinch-hitting in the playoffs than hitters on other teams because he's already done it plenty in the regular season. 

Teams that don't have good starting players employ this strategy in the playoffs.  The goal should be to have 8 solid position players to play every day and can hit in every situation.  There are times when pinch hitting or a defensive substitution makes sense.  But setting your roster to employ someone for only one task is not a winning formula.  Looking at Texas last year, they pinch hit once in five games in the World Series.  I believe they won the World Series.  I would rather follow the formula of the winning team, not everyone else.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

 I want to also point out that this frequent pinch-hitting is often how playoff games are managed. 

Facts not in evidence, your honor.

And I'd be willing to bet any potential playoff manager will happily let Rocco insert Margot into a game at the expense of Wallner or Larnach. In fact, they'll purposely work Rocco to ensure that happens, just like it does now. 

[AKTwinsFan]

Unless your names Ohtani most pinch hitters aren't as good because it's the first time seeing the pitcher (sometimes very first time). So it's not uncommon to have lower than average OPS and averages. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Aren't there two sides to this coin? Margot is a poor hitter against righties and poor pinch hitter. Point taken. The other side is that we still need Margot or someone him because Larnach and Wallner are equally bad or even worse against lefties than Margot is against righties. We don't really have a third OF who can be an everyday player because of the platoon splits these guys all have. That assumes that Buxton and Kepler can hit both sides, a little questionable in Kepler's case. 

I see two short term solutions and a longer term solution. The first short term solutions is to move Castro back to LF once Correa and Lewis are back. 2B can be handled by  a combination of Lee and Julien or Lee and Martin. Miranda plays 5 days a week at 3B/1B/DH, Lewis and Santana each sit once a week and the roles of Larnach, Margot and Wallner are reduced to bench players playing 2-3 days a week. Effectively, this reduces the playing time of Larnach, Margot, and Wallner and gives it to Miranda, Castro and Lee. Are we sure we want to do that? The second is to leave Castro at 2B and platoon Margot, Wallner, and Larnach in LF.  That means fewer ABs for Lee (almost none). Also, the urge to play the two LH hitters might crowd out Miranda from some ABs at the DH spot, which is a mistake - Miranda is a better hitter than any of those 3. 

The longer term solution is to trade or release Margot, and either commit to running Larnach or Wallner out in LF against LH pitching or make Miranda a part time LF against LH pitching. Castro is the everyday 2B and Lee becomes the UTL IF for the rest of the season playing 2-3 days a week at 2B or SS, very occasionally at 3B since Lewis and Miranda handle that spot. I personally like this approach because it gets ABs to Miranda, Larnach, and Wallner instead of Margot and Lee. 

Bottom line is if we get everyone healthy there won't be enough playing time for Larnach, Wallner, Margot and Lee to get regular ABs if you assume the Twins will give regular duty to Kepler, Castro and Miranda. There is also no place for Farmer. Something's gotta give. It will be interesting to watch the next few days t see if there's a move made that opens up the logjam a little in return for pitching,